in town for free camps
General Tenor: Ha, ha, you're Michigan State.
If you were looking for a brief summary of the last thirty years of Spartan football, 2005 was your lucky year. It had everything you could want: a humiliating 35-point loss to Northwestern, heartbreak at the hands of Michigan, an incredible -- in the "this is too strange to possibly believe" sense -- special teams meltdown against an OSU team they should have beat, an unexpected victory over a quality opponent (Notre Dame), and a final collapse that prevented Michigan State from going to a bowl game -- one that involved a loss to Purdue and a 41-18 waxing at the hands of Minnesota. It had just the right mix of burgeoning hope with soul-mangling incompetence, the right mix of surprising success with surprising failure, the right mix of Duffy Daughterty with Bobby Williams. Michigan State's porridge is never too hot, never too cold, always just mediocre. On a micro level MSU is completely unpredictable week-to-week. On a macro level it's always Same Old Spartans.
This was followed by an excerpt from the previous year's preview, which was nearly identical save the niggling details of the season and this assertion:
I may never have to write a new Michigan State intro for as long as I live. Rotate in Rutgers, Lousiana Tech, Hawaii, or Central Michigan in the "humiliating loss" slot, occasionally move Michigan into the "unexpected victory" slot, find the most hilarious available collapse, lather, rinse, and repeat. In the rare event Michigan State finishes more than a couple games away from .500, simply blow it off as random chance and project a reversion to the mean the next year. Voila: preview.
Next year's dilemma: which hilarious collapse? Michigan State managed to blow a million-point lead and the last shreds of Mike Valenti's sanity versus Notre Dame, but they also lost to Illinois.
We do have a slam-dunk for the unexpected victory: Michigan State's NCAA-record comeback versus Northwestern, which provided one of the year's most surprisingly poignant moments. When the final seconds ticked off the clock and the Spartans spilled onto the field, the uncomprehending joy on the faces of JLS and his (soon to be ex-) charges was pure.
Quarterback Misstep #1: Drew Stanton came in for a tongue-bathing.
Last year Drew Stanton (AKA "The Jesus") made a remarkable transformation from a crazy-legged scrambler who happened to occasionally throw with great accuracy to a great quarterback, period. He is accurate in the pocket or on the run, in total command of the Spartan offense, and still capable of taking off when the situation demands it. The numbers show it: Stanton finished 10th nationally in passer efficiency. The win-loss... eh, not so much, but one can only do so much when you are playing opposite a defense as offensive as Michigan State's.
What happened here? State's offense collapsed after the Notre Dame game -- during the Notre Dame game -- and hardly emerged for the rest of the season. Injuries to Matt Trannon, Javon Ringer, and several offensive linemen didn't help but Stanton, like the other QB named Drew in the conference, looked like a shadow of his former self. He morphed from an object of terror to one of pity.
Ah-ha! Potential source of offensive ineptititude:
The offensive line is the potential achilles' heel of the 2006 Spartans and its performance is the greatest variable in their upcoming season. Unfortunately for MSU, the early returns are not encouraging.
MSU finished 82nd in sacks allowed and couldn't run effectively on anyone except Notre Dame once Ringer went down.
Like predicting that there will be embarassing pictures of Britney Spears.I projected the Spartan defense to be bad at football. Defensive line:
In sum: one experienced, decent player in Ryan, and then a vast wasteland of guys who haven't ever seen a meaningful snap and were panned by recruiting gurus. Sure, they could be better.
Linebackers were adjudged "meh" and I didn't get off any rippin' one liners. Secondary:
Q: How do you know when your defensive backfield is in bad shape?
A: When a guy with a name "Cole Corey" is kicked off the team and this causes concern.
I also reiterated this slam-dunk in the "Final Verdict" section:
Without a miracle from several players on the defensive side of the ball they're just going to suck. Where does the pass rush come from? You can excuse Long for not showing up a year ago as a 230 pound true freshman, but Kershaw is much bigger, had a year of experience, and got four garbage-time tackles despite the complete lack of production from the starters. MGoBlog has a cardinal rule of player projection: if you're not a true freshman and you're stuck behind a terrible player on a terrible defense, there is a 90% chance you are a terrible player. The coaches have nothing to lose by trying a kid out in that situation -- is the defense really going to get worse? -- so if you find yourself watching the carnage, you are in no position to correct it. There will be no pass rush; the secondary is going to remain impotent.
104th in sacks, 110th in pass efficiency defense, 88th in total defense, 99th in scoring defense. (Note decency in rush D: 55th, though that could be an artifact of the pass defense.)
Final Verdict on the Final Verdict. My actual prediction, 7-5, turned out to be excessively optimistic. But I do want to point out this worst case scenario:
The spring practice was more indicative of the offensive line's ability than the defensive line's. Stanton scrambles for his life, Ringer's production drops, and the offense is average. The defense is just as brutal as expected, and a further series of hilarious Spartan mistakes loses a game or two. JLS goes 4-8 and gets some lovely parting gifts.
So I didn't foresee a loss to Illinois or Michigan State getting its collapse to the finish in ASAP this year, but come on... not bad, eh?
General Tenor: I dunno.
So what will happen? I abdicate. I've spent hours combing stories, previews, player profiles, statistics, tarot cards, &c and have come up with nothing definitive. The OL could be great! It could be awful. The WRs could be great! They could be awful. The defense should rebound! Or maybe not. You'll get nothing definitive out of me on this team ready for mocking at season's end. Wisconsin will either be good or bad. If they are not, they will be average. Bold!
You could argue that we still don't know all that much about Wisconsin. The Badgers' best win is over Penn State. They played one ranked team, Michigan, and lost that game by two touchdowns.
I should have considered the Fat Wisconsin RB Factor. PJ Hill was the Big Ten's breakout star, but though I projected him as the starter I also dismissed him out of hand:
More disturbing than the tolerance shown for Stanley's behavior was that shown his totally inept running -- please don't pay attention to his approximately five yards a carry last year, as almost all of his carries were against the BGSUs and Hawaiis of the schedule -- as it indicates that his plodding, fall-over-at-slight-contact style was the best option left the Badgers when the ball didn't go to Calhoun. You can probably write off junior Jamil Walker and senior Dywon Rowan as a result. That leaves redshirt freshman PJ Hill as your projected starter. Hill seems to have Stanley's temper -- in February he was arrested for wielding a bat outside of a Wisconsin dorm
-- and size at 235 pounds, but Wisconsin has to hope that he has something other than his talent-like substance. I have my doubts despite the puff-job coming from the coaches and media, as Bielema is talking about having four or five guys who are in competition for the job. Running backs are sort of like quarterbacks with greater amplitude: if you say you have five, you don't really have any.
This might have been wrong. It also might have been Wisconsin's typically crooshing offensive line paving vast lanes against the overmatched front sevens of the Big Ten. Against Michigan, Hill was swallowed alive, though he's far from alone there. In any case he warranted better than the "2" he got.
Er. And you were again? Travis Beckum didn't even get mentioned. No tight end did.
About that fat guy thing. On the OL:
Chalk it up to excessive Badger-related optimism, but this line seems like it'll transition smoothly enough to a new generation of impossibly huge guys paving the way for oft-overrated running backs. It will be rough at the start -- it has to, especially with the Thomas injury -- and thus the "3" rating, but I would look at it more as a 2-progressing-to-4 by year's end.
This was exactly right. The Wisconsin offensive line was largely responsible for UW's ugly offensive output against a selection of nonconference tomato cans and the Badgers' total inability to go forward against Michigan, but after the Michigan game Thomas, et al., figured things out and started battering opponents into goo.
Why? My personal hero, Wisconsin offensive line coach Bob Palcic:
Besides, how can you go wrong when you've got this guy...
Bob Dole. Bob Dole! BOB DOLE! ... is apparently UW's new offensive line coach. In yet another article about recruiting and text messaging, this passage made my day:
[Text messaging is] bad news for coaches like Bob Palcic, the newest hire on Bielema's first staff. Palcic, who was hired Monday to coach the Badgers' offensive line, said he barely knows how to use a cell phone, much less text messaging.
"If they do eliminate text messaging, that will be a positive for Bob Palcic," he said, "because I'm still just a guy who likes to talk to people on the telephone."
Bob Palcic's teaching the offensive linemen. Bob Palcic's going to the store. Bob Palcic's trying to mash the tiny buttons on a cell phone to tell some punk kid to have a good time tonight. Bob Palcic fought in 'Nam! Bob Palcic has a purple heart... Bob Palcic doesn't need this bullshit!
...as your offensive line coach? Bob Palcic fought in 'Nam!
Yes, that is three levels of blockquote nesting. But it's worth it.
Another omission. Virtually, anyway. Jack Ikegwuonu was mentioned here:
Cornerback Brett Bell graduates, leaving the position in the hands of two true sophomores, Allen Langford and Jack Ikegwuonu, who struggled a year ago.
That was all the mention a guy who ended the year on the extremely prestigious MGoBlog first team All Big Ten list. There were two main reasons Wisconsin finished the year #1 in pass efficiency defense:
- Incompetent opponent quarterbacks.
A remarkable turnaround. Bret Bielema may be a bit of a meathead, but everywhere he's ever been has had a kickass defense save Wisconsin's 2005 unit, which struggled through a ton of injuries and finished an ugly 92nd. This year? #2. Schedule blah blah, sure, but that's a huge improvement and another notch on Bielema's belt.
Final Verdict on the Final Verdict. I projected 9-3 because of a weak schedule but didn't fully comprehend exactly how weak it would be. I think Wisconsin is about the team I thought they'd be save for a much better secondary than I gave them credit for and plus Travis Beckum. This...
The pain of losing Calhoun will be immense
... wasn't the best assertion, though. Middling to good. Bob Palcic fought in Nam!
Hello. There are blog awards coming. Joel @ Rocky Top Talk has the details. There are 22 of these freakin' things, so I'm going to post nominations in blocks. The nomination process is open to anyone who wants their opinion to be heard. All readers/bloggers are encouraged to hit up the nomination form and proffer opinion. Each category will have 1-2 nominees selected by a blue-ribbon committee instead of nomination volume, so even the most obscure blog or post will get notice.
Anyway, on with the show.
The Sports Fans Don't Cry Award
(for best response in the face of crushing misery.)
Hey Jenny Slater. In my head this award is about putting the agony of defeat on paper in a way that simultaneously acknowledges the ridiculousness of feeling anger towards a fundamentally meaningless game and makes it clear that you and your little View-watching compatriots can take your condescenscion and stuff it up the gerbil hole. Bonus points for property destruction. Take it away, Doug Gillett:
While I take college football a lot more seriously than some people, I'd always figured that I could still approach it with a measure of reason and sanity, keeping a level head and venturing toward neither the extreme of overexuberance nor the extreme of seething despair as I see so many other people doing from time to time. Only once have I ever even come close to getting in a fistfight over a game, and I can't remember a single time when I actually destroyed property. But during the Colorado game, my feeling toward the team went beyond disappointment, where it has been before on occasion, and advanced straight into anger. Rage, even. Enough anger that Ann and I had to leave Loco's Deli and Pub in Homewood, where we had been watching the game, for fear that I would do something to get thrown out if we stuck around.
This turned out to be an astute decision on our part, because after Matt Stafford's fumble to end the first drive of the third quarter, I knocked a chair over in the kitchen, then picked it up and threw it a ways. And when Georgia's next drive also ended in a fumble, I yanked my toaster oven off the counter and hurled it off my balcony.
The clincher is the next sentence.
No, I'm not proud of it, but it happens. I'm moving on.
Keith Jackson Circa 1995
(for the best prose.)
Every Day Should Be Saturday. This is a "duh," right?
Sunday Morning Quarterback. Also "duh."
Ron Bellamy's Underachieving All-Stars. One of the persistent frustrations of the past year is that Johnny's posting schedule on RBUAS was around once or twice a week. All that nasty "class" and "writing things for newspapers" interfered with his god-given talent, which was telling us all why Steve Breaston was still his hero and making it sound goooood. I remembered a particular sentence vividly; I looked at RBUAS' August archive -- surely it couldn't have been that old if it stuck in my head like that -- and the June archive, and the May, and April, and March, and February, finding it in none of these. Eventually I did locate it, January 21st of this year:
There's this feeling you get when you know a player's worth something, where you sense the eyes of the world and every loose molecule in the atmosphere gravitating toward them. And then before you can catch your breath Michigan's trailing Penn State by a touchdown, the kick off's fallen into his hands, he's at midfield, your lungs deflate, and the camera pans out and you see an image like the one at the end of "Field of Dreams" where miles of headlights are being pulled to that one player everyone can't stop watching.
So, yeah, I just went through 2/3rds of a year's posts to find that, and I think it was worth it. This is not a phenomenon unique to me.
Best New Blog
Two votes here. One: Card Chronicle, a Louisville blog that introduced the world to Ill-Advised Haircut, Kentucky's version of Spain. Um... "Spain" as in the "Spain" of the On Notice board, an apparently blameless entity that is nonetheless blamed for all the issues facing the favored program. (Though I should point out that Spain has recently done me very wrong indeed and now actually warrants its place on the board. And no, ain't tellin'.) Why? Well, this was the #4 reason Louisville might lose to Rutgers:
4. We got a haircut
We weren't sure whether or not we were going to admit this, but damnit we've never known how to lie you.
Still drunk with happiness last Friday afternoon, we decided things were getting a little too shaggy up top and that it was time to head to our fancy Barbershop (Super Cuts) and get a dome chop. The chair was comfy, the conversation exquisite, and the hair (obviously) glorious. It wasn't until about five minutes after we'd left the lovely Sharon with a generous tip (37 cents) that we realized what we had just done.
Our last cut had been right before our birthday, meaning it was the last week of August, and more importantly meaning it was before the season started.
We may have been the only ones present in our atumomobile at the time, but that didn't stop us from saying "Oh. My. God." out loud. We thought about pulling a U'ey in the middle of the road, sprinting back into the SC and asking what their policy is on super glueing the used hair of a recent client back to his head. Alas we came to terms with the fact that there was nothing to be done, and that we may have just ruined the hopes and dreams of all of Cardinal nation.
If the unthinkable were to happen tonight, rest assured there will be a self-inflicted penalty, and it will involve our hair. Or testicles.
Ill-Advised Haircut recently came in third in a CC poll of BCS opponents Card fans would like to see. One question: what happened to the hair/testicles punishment promised?
Vote #2: Corn From A Jar, the Tennessee blog that gave us "We Must Protect This Cheese" and many other bits of hilarity throughout the season. I am a sucker for a blog that can make me laugh.
Post of the Year
(Tyrone Prothro Award)
On January 12th of this year -- a mere eight days after the NC game which marks the boundary of available posts, Every Day Should Be Saturday posted the triumphant peak of its "Your Schools Promotional Ad Is Teh Suxors" series: Appalachian State is HOT HOT HOT. About a week later, VH1 featured it on its Web Junk show. Coincidence? Maybe. It's now got its own Wikipedia page. Point Orson.
(I reserve the right to expound further here.)
Best Regular Feature
(Old Faithful Award)
Desperately torn here between "Friday Morning Quarterback" and "Sunday Morning Quarterback" from, yes, Sunday Morning Quarterback. I don't actually have to choose, but it poses
a philosophical issue: is the most essential preview column in college football more important than the most essential review column in college football? If so, why? 8-10 pages due Monday.
MaxwellPundit. Chris Wilson at Rakes of Mallow put together the Heisman alternative and gave me real reason to hate Reggie Ball, since I kept shoving Calvin Johnson at the top of my ballot right before Ball would lead Georgia Tech to, say, a stirring 31-7 loss versus Clemson in which he wouldn't even look at Johnson all game. Unfortunately, Troy Smith sliced Michigan into ribbons and removed all suspense from further proceedings, but if things had been a little bit different you could see the potential for a person who wasn't a quarterback or running back to win. Wilson also deftly combined everyone's opinions into an entertaining weekly post, pioneered the use of descriptions like "Robot-God of Aerial Destruction" when describing awards candidates, and weekly reminded me to actually vote in the damn thing.
Under The Hood. Burnt Orange Nation's pro-bono comprehensive statistical breakdown of teams and matchups not involving Texas in even the slightest itty-bitty way was an unexpected boon. The Michigan-Ohio State one saved me a couple hours. Distilling a mass of numbers into something sensible is a difficult enterprise, and BON did it with aplomb.
Best Podcast/Audio Thing
Ohhhh yeah, baby... Lee Corso. "I'm about to run a freaky option like you never seen between passion and ecstasy." Orson, Orson, Orson, you have no idea how many sweet love-makin' sessions you've ruined when Corso's head has floated in from the side and hovered over the lovee, Reese-Witherspoon-in-Election style. Half nightmare, half dream, all sexy: The Lee Corso Soul, er, Explosion. Mascot head don't lie.
The Orgeron Song. Memphis radio host Chris Vernon revolutionized the state of the art in weird Orgeron parody/tribute with "Colonel Reb is Crying." yawwwwyawwwyawww yaw yaw footbaw, indeed.
Friday Nite Lites. House Rock Built's semi-regular podcast disappeared towards the end of the season but was still to my knowledge the only regularly produced college football podcast. Also I ruled the lightning round.
The Free Press has confirmed yesterday's widely-circulated internets rumor that Jake Long will return for his senior year. Divers alarums, and six points to anyone who gets that particular obscure reference. There is, of course, one to go: Alan Branch. As speculated on the Fanhouse, chances are he goes. He's a top-ten lock if he does. All anyone has at the moment is common-sense speculation, though, and that should be regarded as an aimless prediction, not anything solid.
You might not want to think about hockey, but there are a couple articles out there for your persual. One on Rohlfs, the other on Cogliano. Bob Miller, who wrote the Rohlfs article, also offered this on a couple of recruits:
In a word - wow! Just in from watching Little Caesar's play Chicago Mission in the MWEHL MIdget Showcase being hosted by Compuware this weekend.
Treais had a hat trick made up of highlight reel type goals, reminiscent of his skill-set clone, T.J. Hensick. Very, very impressive performance by the Michigan commitment.
Jon Merrill was also a rock on defense for Little Caesar's. Bodes very well for Wolverine fans.
Boh Treais and Merrill are a few years from campus.
Kampfer's shoulder injury suffered on Sunday is supposed to be a separated shoulder that will keep him out a month. Michigan will go into the GLI down Johnson, Dest, Kampfer, and Cogliano, and my hate for the holiday PWR-murdering it represents will increase. Why do we play in this again?
(Rohlfs HT: Gorilla Crouch.)
More renovations. According the Sports Business Journal, Michigan will embark on a $75 million renovation of Crisler($). Weird thing: a reduction in public capacity from around 14,000 to 10,000. This seems backwards. The program is floundering so the logical thing is to expect it to flounder forever and reel in expectations and seating. Maybe the basketball team should go back to Yost.
More honors for Panter. He's been named to another All-American team: bad hair. It should be noted that Panter's grungy die job has disappeared.
More playoffs! Corn Nation has a discussion with Josh Centor of the Double A Zone on what, exactly, the NCAA does and does not control in this situation. Upshot:
CN: Could the NCAA have any influence on whether or not Division IA would move to a playoff system?
Only through the collective will of the membership. If an appropriate majority of the membership thought the postseason bowl system should be more akin to an NCAA championship, it is conceivable we could see a change that would bring the Football Bowl Subdivision in line with the rest of NCAA championship events.
Rakes of Mallow takes issue with the idea that the importance of the regular season would be seriously diminished if a playoff was instituted. I do find the argument that a playoff would have made the Michigan-Ohio State game "meaningless" odd. For one, that game was unprecedented in the history of the series. Every other time Michigan and Ohio State have played, they would have been battling for either a spot or seeding or whatever. A once-in-a-lifetime #1 versus #2 game is just that: once-in-a-lifetime. Citing the most extreme outlier you can find is the sure sign of a losing argument. And since it was ONCE IN A LIFETIME, the prospect of consolation in a playoff would have provided little solace on High Street November 18th, trust me. College football games won't morph into something with all the passion of a February Atlanta Hawks-Golden State Warriors game just because the playoff will permit the occasional two-loss team to compete.
TMQ cites history... anyone know what he's talking about? I'm too young to get this reference:
As to Miami tactics, Jason Taylor has switched this season to a hybrid defensive end-linebacker position, similar to the old "elephant" role played by Charles Haley in his heyday. Taylor has been terrific, and if Miami were playoff-bound, would be a contender for defensive MVP. On Sunday, Dolphins' coaches reached still further back into the past and let Taylor be a 1960s University of Michigan style "monster man," lining up wherever he pleased. New England blockers clearly could not figure out the rhyme or reason to where Taylor was, and he gave them fits all day. The reason New England blockers couldn't figure out the rhyme or reason to Taylor's movements was that there wasn't any -- Taylor was using his instinct to decide for himself where to line up on each down. Essentially, Taylor was calling his own plays. In the hyper-organized NFL, it's interesting to see that giving a top player the green light to use his instincts worked out really well.
Who were these people?
Update 12/13: Linked to article on LB commit Marell Evans (claims VT and Clemson were interested) and one on JUCO LB Austin Panter (JUCO national DPOY.) Added TN OT Jared McGaha, removed CA RB Curtis Shaw(Washington). Linked to articles on IL DT Josh Brent, FL S/OLB Lorenzo Edwards, FL CB Doug Wiggins, and TX QB Ryan Mallett. Linked some YouTube video of MI WR James Rogers. Linked to article on OH LB Peter Rolf.
Editorial Opinion: Brent and removed IL DE Martez Wilson are announcing on the 20th at Wilson's high school and are expected to commit to... Illinois. No, I don't know why. Best guess is that Zook stumbled across some sort of downed alien spaceship and stole some sort of hypnosis ray. Anyway, they be gone.
McGaha visited, said he'd wait for a prospective Michigan offer, then committed to MSU yesterday. Two star OL heading to State is no big deal. The reason I bring it up:
"They were pretty up front about it with me. They've offered a tackle, from Oklahoma (Matt Romine)."
"Romine is going to make his decision in early January (at the Army All-American game). If he doesn't not pick Michigan, then they will come back to me."
Irish fans are very confident on Romine, some claiming he's a silent commit, but that behavior indicates that the Michigan coaches believe he's in play.
UMGoBlue uploaded some video of sleeper WR commit James Rogers:
It's clear that he's not going to play running back at Michigan, and for good reason. Those cuts are clunky.
On Doug Wiggins: I don't have feel for where he's leaning. It's sort of odd for this guy to have Georgia and Michigan as his leaders. It's more odd that he recently took a visit to Western Michigan. He does have three former teammates already there, including his cousin, and two current teammates are committed to Western, so there's that. Still... a bit odd. Useful information from the WMU article:
Wiggins intends to announce his decision at his high school team's banquet on Dec. 22. He said he'll graduate this month and will enroll at the college of his choice in January, making him available for spring practice.
Austin Panter woo! Guy was named the NJCAA defensive player of the year:
"Austin is everything you want in a football player. He's an extremely hard worker, he's committed both on and off the field, and he's certainly worthy of all the accolades he's received this year," [his coach] Morrell said. " Austin 's a leader, a very unselfish player and a team player. He has tremendous character, and he's a lot of fun to be around. "
Morrell has higher praise in a Scout article:
"Well, I coached Rudy Johnson who is with the Bengals right now (starting RB, and a first round draft pick). I coached both of Auburn's starting cornerbacks, David Irons and Jon Wilhite. I've got starters at Nebraska, Arizona State and Florida State."
"Austin is top of all those guys."
"He has a great size-and-speed combo (GBW note: we knew of Panter's 4.6 sec. 40, so we asked about his bench press ... Coach Morrell said over 350 pounds). His football instincts are as good as any player we've had here. He has a great nose for the ball. He has a great work ethic."
"He has tremendous potential."
Panter's now the leading candidate for both "surprise star" and "overhyped bust" going into 2007. Hopefully it's the former, as the coaching staff evidently is not in love with Johnny Thompson.
Lorenzo Edwards, like George Costanza, really wants to be an architect. This is an interesting issue for him, because Notre Dame's architecture program requires a year overseas:
Edwards wants to study architecture. The drawback to that for football players is that the program requires one year of study in Rome. Weis reassured Edwards that would not be a problem.
"That's one of the things [the year in Rome] that me and coach Weis talked about today," explained Edwards. "He told me once before that he wanted me to pursue my career goal and that he wouldn't want to interrupt something that I wanted. He was reassuring me that if I went off for that year I could come back and play for two more years. It's something that I love doing and something that I enjoy doing. I think that it would be a great experience."
That's a hell of a commute to play linebacker (or safety), and one less conveniently timed that a Mormon mission since it would come in his third year in the program. Seems kind of doubtful Edwards ends up at ND. Rumor was that, like Michael Williams, Edwards was mostly choosing between Michigan and ND... could be good for us.
We're apparently close to offering two-star OH linebacker Peter Rolf, according to Scout. He does have an Oregon offer, so there's that. He's also Polynesian, which is cool.
Conquest Chronicles is all asking Michigan blogs questions, and I'm all answering.
1. Have you recovered yet from Michigan's exclusion from the national championship game? We've heard the "experts" give us their opinion on why Michigan dropped from 2nd to 3rd without snapping the ball. What do you think really happened here?
Recovered? Well, I'm still mad but I have managed to stop crying myself to sleep.
As for what happened, there's no debate after all the quotes we saw: the question "who is the better team" was discarded. I find this irritating but want to move on.
2. We admire Lloyd Carr for having enough dignity to refrain from campaigning for BCS positioning. Pete Carroll has the same approach. Still, it was nice to hear Carr call out Urban Meyer for his whiny Tuberville impression. What's your take on the "southern inferiority complex"? What do you think about this season's conventional wisdom, which is that the Big-10 is weak ... despite having arguably the two best teams in the country?
The Big Ten is pretty weak this year from a certain perspective. Ohio State doesn't benefit from the fact that Ohio State is really good because they don't have to play themselves. They basically had a two-game season.
Iowa didn't show up, Michigan State collapsed, and Penn State and Purdue are teams with one good unit and one atrocious one. Wisconsin is a good team but arguably less proven than Boise State, who at least beat good Hawaii and Oregon State teams. I don't mind admitting this. What is bothersome is that when the Big Ten is up -- as it was last year -- the SEC drumbeat continues unabated. No matter what the facts on the ground are, there's always someone waving the SEC flag. Usually their arguments have all the coherency of The Orgeron on crystal meth, but it doesn't matter, and it results in a media environment where mediocre-to-bad Georgia and decent Tennessee play a sloppy game you could see any week in the Pac-10 and get an SI cover declaring the SEC to be "SIMPLY THE BEST." And what wonderful cover subjects for that particular assertion.
Anyway: I've always found this bit of contrived math to be interesting as regards schedule difficulty. Let's set up two situations.
Team A plays six teams it has a 70% chance of beating.
Team B plays five teams it has a 75% chance of beating and one team it has a 45% chance of beating
The average number of wins in these situations is equal: 4.2. But the chance of going undefeated is 11.76% in the first scenario and 10.67% in the second. This is by no means definitive, but it does suggest that the sort of test represented by travelling to Ohio State is a far greater danger to national championship hopes than playing in a conference where South Carolina is slightly less crappy than Iowa. This is apropos of little, I suppose, but look! Math!
3. After losing to Ohio State and now seeing Michigan's remaining hopes dashed while other teams made their case on the field, what is your assessment of the Wolverines' psyche going into preparations for the Rose Bowl? How will Carr get them ready?
I give little credence to the idea that Michigan's going to come out and play crappily because they're pissed. This isn't Kansas State falling into the Alamo Bowl against Purdue. The words "Rose Bowl" and "USC" get the attention of anyone associated with the Michigan program. I also don't think they're likely to come out more fired up because they've been passed over.
I do guarantee, however, that no matter the outcome of the Rose Bowl dim columnists will credit the BCS for Michigan's performance. If Michigan wins, they will be righteous warriors incensed at the folly of the BCS. If they lose, they will be dispirited and uninterested in any prize that's not a crystal football. Fire Joe Morgan coined a term for this: hindpsychology.
4. What is the general impression of Tressel abstaining from his poll vote, his vote for UM would have surely put you guys in the title game. Some have commended him for staying neutral others have hammered him for not having the guts to take a stand. How do you feel?
Um... Tressel's vote wouldn't have mattered either way. During D-Day I wasn't surprised or concerned. I probably would have done the same thing in his position, since however he voted it would have been spun as an insult to his opponent. If he had gone with Michigan, Florida would have bulletin board material about bias and not wanting to play Florida and SEC disrespect. If he had gone with Florida, Florida would have claimed disrespect since Tressel wanted them instead of Michigan. There would be dozens of columns, all of them very, very dumb, about the vote and what it means.
As far as I can tell, the argument for having Tressel cast a ballot revolves around "balls" and stuff about how he signed up to vote and knew what he was getting into, but Tressel's job is to do what's best for Ohio State and that's what he did.