Michigan freshmen Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III will return to school, sources told CBSSports.com.
We'll hold off on any celebration type activities until it is official.
Michigan's called a 4:30 presser at which GRIII and McGary will announce whether they're returning for year two or entering the NBA draft. Three quick items:
- M had pressers for Burke and Lewan; could easily return.
- Joint presser means decisions are probably the same, and seems like a good sign to this super-biased mind.
- There were leaks hours before the Burke and Hardaway pressers, likely from agents who didn't get Burke and Hardaway's business. If we get to 4:30 without someone saying they're in, I bet they're out.
Cross all available digits.
UPDATE NOT FIVE SECONDS AFTER I POST THIS: A man named Dan Hasty says they're back. He's apparently on 97.1 and WWJ, so not a random. But also no track record. FWIW.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN WE ARE RECRUITING IN SPACE
Hi. Ace is off for the next week and I, Brian, am piloting you through the interstellar gulf that exists between your brain and those of extremely talented young football players who haven't instantly chosen to play at Michigan, which like come on man.
Shall we take stock?
Michigan's scholarship count stands at 15 right now. Technically it's 14 since Michigan is at 86, give or take a long snapper scholarship and Will Hagerup's existence. It'll be 15 by August. From there normal levels of attrition will see them reach 20 or so. Assuming 20:
QB(1): Wilton Speight, check.
RB(1): Unknown. Michigan has a few offers out to three-star sorts. Colorado Kalen Ballage may be your leading candidate; more likely Michigan's RB in this class will be someone you haven't heard of yet.
WR(3): Drake Harris is in the barn, mid-four-star KJ Williams is still saying Michigan is his leader after the post-visit glow has worn off. Instater Maurice Ways is reputedly on the verge of an offer he won't take long to accept. Mason Cole teammate Artavis Scott has backed off the promise of a package deal but is still high on Michigan and just visited for spring. Childhood M fan Corey Holmes is another possibility.
TE(1): Whoever it is, he'll probably be from Illinois. Daniel Helm has backed off after announcing Michigan his leader and now maintains a top four with Michigan and a few Southern schools. Alarmingly, Ole Miss is amongst them. Ian Bunting may favor Notre Dame at the moment but will visit USC and Michigan before a forthcoming decision. Nic Weishar is also coming up on a decision.
OL(4): Mason Cole is in the barn. Jabrill Pepper's teammate Juwann Bushell-Beaty maintains Michigan as his leader; Blake Bars's brother Alex Bars is a top 100 prospect at tackle; Drake Harris's teammate Tommy Doles has seemed to be on the verge of dropping for months but recent scuttlebutt has him holding off despite the possibility of a crunch.
NT(1): Bryan Mone in the barn. With Hurst/Pipkins/Henry(?) in front of him Michigan can be done. Mone could play three tech, but if Michigan gets Hand and McDowell, he's the nose in that group.
SDE/3T(2): Michigan trails VT for #1 overall player Da'shawn Hand… probably. See below. Instate star Malik McDowell is rumored to be a Michigan lean.
SAM/WDE(1): Ferns barn, likely a SAM. With Ojemudia and Charlton they could skip a WDE. If they don't there's an obvious candidate in instater Lawrence Marshall. He was briefly an OSU commit; he'll come down to those guys and the two in-state schools.
ILB(2): A spot where OSU has held onto some in-state stars Michigan was after; now M is on to plan B. Those appear to be IL LB Kyron Watson and PA LB Chase Winovich. Winovich is a big guy a 6'4" and may end up a SAM type; Watson is more of a WLB. Both are three stars, but Winovich also has an OSU offer.
CB(2): If Michigan can hold off Stanford they'll reel in consensus five star Jabrill Peppers. Todd Howard protégé Parrker Westphal seems likely to join up. Californian Adoree Jackson is another five-star who has Michigan high on his list.
S(2): Californian Juju Smith has Michigan a solid member of a top five that leads you to believe a CA exit is possible; he could play WR but Michigan's in on a bunch of those. Pennsylvanian Montae Nicholson is another option.
K/P(0): With Wile, McGrath, and Allen on the roster next year they can go without. Would not be surprised to see them look for a quality walk-on kicker to compete with McGrath.
ESPN ranks them all
ESPN has put out its top 300. Players of interest (bold: commit; italics: have at least a 50-50 shot):
- #2 NJ CB Jabrill Peppers
- #4 VA DE Da'Shawn Hand
- #5 CA CB Adoree Jackson
- #29 LA WR Malachi Dupre
- #55 TN OL Alex Bars
- #62 CA S John "Juju" Smith
- #69 MI DT Malik McDowell
- #72 UT DT Bryan Mone
- #75 FL WR Corey Holmes
- #85 FL WR Artavis Scott
- #87 IL CB Parrker Westphal
- #96 MI WR Drake Harris
- #107 MI DE Lawrence Marshall
- #112 OH LB Michael Ferns
- #120 NJ OT Juwan Bushell-Beatty
- #125 VA QB Wilton Speight
- #145 FL OT Mason Cole
- #208 AZ TE Mark Andrews
- #239 PA S Montae Nicholson
That's a pretty long list of targets, one that includes every Michigan commit so far in their top 150. Michigan has a good shot at bringing in ten to twelve of the ESPN 150. Pants? Off.
He loves me, he loves me not
ESPN has just released preliminary rankings—remember when they were supposed to be getting rankings out before these kids' junior year?—and we're getting a look at their usual idiosyncrasies. One to the good is Wilton Speight, who makes Tom Luginbill's top ten quarterbacks:
7. QB-PP Wilton Speight
Richmond, Va./Collegiate School
This guy has some juice to him. The more you watch Speight, the more subtle, savvy traits show up. Physically he reminds us of Brock Osweiler (the Arizona State Osweiler, not the high school version). He possesses great size and adequate bulk. He's strong with deceptively good mobility and athleticism. Stands tall and is balanced in the pocket. Drop speed and set up is quick and steady. Plays with poise and confidence in his abilities.
Luginbill says the position is down a bit nationally. FWIW, he's the #4 pocket passer in their rankings. Last year the #4 pocket guy was 64th overall (Stanford commit Ryan Burns). Shane Morris was 8th; the top 10 were in their 150. Ballpark Speight around 100th, it would seem.
On the other hand, while two Michigan WR targets do appear in Luginbill's take on the WR class Drake Harris does not. Luginbill on Holmes:
7. WR Corey Holmes
Fort Lauderdale, Fla./St. Thomas Aquinas
Holmes is a lean and lanky prospect with ideal height and long limbs. He is flexible and plays primarily on the inside as a slot in high school, but could be an outside threat for the next level. He is shifty and fluid, which makes it difficult to gauge his deceptively good speed and acceleration.
Complete eval | Highlights
9. WR Artavis Scott
Tarpon Springs, Fla./East Lake
Scott has very few physical weaknesses, but he also lacks ideal measurables in terms of bulk and strength. Given his frame, he still needs to add strength to aid his physicality. He displays good straight-line burst off the line of scrimmage. This is a very fluid and smooth player in his overall movements. Does not show breakaway speed on tape, but does have good enough downfield speed and quickness to be an adequate outside route runner at the next level.
Complete eval | Highlights
Harris must have been #11.
The next to drop
If aforementioned MI WR Maurice Ways does pick up an offer that means a couple things: Michigan is ready to take his commitment and they like the kid quite a bit since they've got higher rated guys on the hook and are willing to push one of them elsewhere. The offer situation as of ten days ago($):
"They said I'm very high on their radar," Ways explained. "I've been their most talked-about recruit the past two weeks. They're saying just to be patient. They're going to watch my film again as a staff Monday, and make a decision from there."
Monday was, uh, Monday, and the chatter out there indicates that offer could be forthcoming soon. Other candidates include Pick A Tight End and the aforementioned Parrker Westphal, who will also be in this weekend.
Tight ends resolved while you wait
More on that Ian Bunting kid: the small-forward-sized Illinois TE did just go to Notre Dame and came back speaking thusly:
“I found out that Notre Dame is a special place,” Bunting said. “It’s really cool with all the history. There is something special there with all the tradition they have and I love the way they use their tight ends. I’m definitely higher on them than I was before.”
He's at USC today; tomorrow he will be at Michigan. A decision "could come shortly after." Bunting's been reticent about stating anything more than a vague top group. ND is probably the team to beat given the above quote; his only other visits since last year's football season were to Oregon, Wisconsin and Northwestern, and I can't find anything similarly positive on those trips. Hoke and company have shown an ability to flip kids' minds once they get on campus, which I think we say every week but you're probably not tired of that fact yet. It is thus concluded we will keep saying it.
IL TE Daniel Helm's timeline is getting shorter($) as well:
"Originally I was hoping to take official visits, now I am realizing positions fill up and sometimes the scholarship you may want might not be there. So, I am pretty confident I will make a decision before the season, but I'm not sure when."
Helm's been to each of his top four schools (Michigan, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Florida); Michigan may have an advantage since they just got a second, this one with his dad. Helm also publicly favored Michigan not too long ago($), and was telling Nebraska sites it was M.
Meanwhile, IL TE—they're all IL TEs—Nic Weishar will visit($) the twin spires of Mordor this weekend, whereupon he'll sit down and come out with a short top list. Weishar visited Michigan a month ago($), and hit up a few other schools earlier. Dollars to donuts this comes down to an old-fashioned Midwestern three corners match between ND, M, and OSU.
Michigan also has AZ WR/TE Mark Andrews coming in. He's ranked as a WR by most of the scouting services despite actually being heavier than Bunting and Helm; he's checking Michigan out as part of a ND/OSU/M Midwest swing. He grew up an Oklahoma fan($) and has a brother there, so they're the tentative favorite. Michigan will either be in a leading group or out after the weekend.
The Hand Of God
Da'Shawn Hand demonstrating the fish story coaches who do not successfully recruit him will tell.
That would be #1 overall player VA DT Da'Shawn Hand, who Michigan is after in a serious way. Hand talked to Yahoo radio recently, and declaimed thusly:
- he "recently decided" he wants to major in sports management, something that came up as he's talking Alabama.
- What is it about Michigan? "Everything. The coaches, the players, the town, the professors, the academic buildings, the food… it was cold, but I can manage that, I'm from Philly. Everything was just great about it."
- Meanwhile, on VT: "Well, first, they're close to home. Bud Foster's been my favorite coach… it just feels like home there. [garbled] …I'm just comfortable there and they play good football."
- He wants to take his officials; has no timeline.
He hasn't been down to Florida yet and his statements about the other SEC teams in his top five (South Carolina and Alabama) were considerably more lukewarm than the two I transcribed above. Everyone says VT is on top, but if you had to pick from the quotes above…
From Wolverine Nation, an article on the potential for guys to hop aboard($) the class before their spot gets full. MI OL Tommy Doles:
“I’d like to know by the summer and whether or not I’d have to [decide] before then, I guess I’d have to think about that when it came around,” Doles said. “But yeah, it could accelerate things if it were to happen.”
A couple of the WRs pop in to say similar things. We could see some quick movement at the catching positions if Ways is offered and commits as KJ Williams, Artavis Scott, and possibly Corey Holmes think it over.
Let's all debunk RCMB nuts
MI WR Drake Harris's recruiting process took a major turn during the course of his junior year, when he found out he was a capital-E Elite football prospect and only a good basketball prospect. He changed what sport he was going to play; thus the decommit. This is not an eyebrow-cocking Gunner Kiel saga.
“Drake is firmly committed to playing at Michigan, and I would be absolutely shocked if he didn’t follow through it,” Fellows said. “People forget that Drake was going to Michigan State to play basketball and football, and MSU was the best choice for him to play football and basketball. …
“Once he decided to play just football, that all changed, so it’s unfair to compare the two scenarios. Drake told me his heart is at Michigan, and I am taking his word at it. I’ve known Drake since the eighth grade, and he has never lied to me. He went to Ohio State on Friday and Michigan on Saturday, and he told me that’s all he had to see.”
Never say never and all that; Harris is no more likely to decommit than anyone else Brady Hoke's picked up in his three years. He in fact got his re-recruitment done early because he's sick of the song and dance. You have a 2% chance, decommit-chasing guys. Have fun storming the castle.
Michigan has an offer out to OH S Erick Smith, who is at Glenville and thus has visited OSU all the time($). He is planning a Michigan trip in the near future along with visits to Alabama and Tennessee; in general prospects with a Glenville kid who has an OSU offer are always going to be dim. This is a hill to climb for a guy who hasn't been on M's campus:
He’s seen the Buckeyes more than once and always walks away feeling good. His last visit was nine days ago at student appreciation day, where he brought his parents along for the ride. All three liked what they saw.
“It’s the atmosphere and the people,” Smith said. “When you go there, they’re all for real.
“My dad is getting used to it, so he enjoyed himself. My mom loved it. She talked about getting down there and getting to know them better.”
Michigan offers TX RB Vic Enwere, a three-star with middling offers. Unless it was actually Michigan State who offered. The usual with three-star sorts from far away: he'll be on the radar once he visits. [UPDATE: Rivals's Tim Sullivan passes along a note that the Enwere offer was erroneously reported; it's actually an MSU offer.]
The future: the usual
2015 KY RB Damien Harris, you have the power:
It would be pretty tight if me and Drake Harris both committed to Michigan!
Harris, regarded as one of the top tailbacks in his class, already has an offer and mostly tweets 1) things about how he likes Michigan and 2) retweets of other people telling him to go to Michigan (which is an NCAA violation, don't do that). If he doesn't end up in the next class it'll be a surprise.
Malik McDowell offered by Alabama and LSU. M offers LA S Mattrell McGraw, says he'll visit soon with teammate and consensus top 100 prospect Malachi Dupre. McGraw's rankings haven't caught up to a booming offer sheet. NJ OL Juwan Bushell-Beatty says he's "getting closer to a decision($)," possibly after visits to offerees Florida and Tennessee. An early decision is better for Michigan.
From a very strange post I put together about THJ and Jared Sullinger screaming at each other.
Michigan's NBA exodus picks up a second member as Tim Hardaway, Jr., has decided to put his name in. Hardaway is probably not a first round pick, but probably wouldn't have been a first-rounder next year anyway. It makes some sense for him to go. It wasn't a slam dunk like Burke; it wasn't a "really?" decision like Manny Harris and, to a lesser extent, Darius Morris.
This isn't exactly unexpected. While the loss of a potential senior captain is a blow, this site's post about what the roster looks like next year had already taken his absence into account without damaging the outlook too badly:
In the Hardaway departure scenario, give or take five minutes here and there:
PG: Walton (25) / Spike (15)
SG: Stauskas (30) / LeVert (10)
SF: Irvin (25) / LeVert (15)
PF: GRIII (35) / Morgan (5)
C: McGary(30) / Morgan (5) / Horford (5)
There are worse things than handing over one of Michigan's wing spots to a five-star freshman and a hopefully-improving Caris LeVert. Lose McGary or Robinson—or, ugh, both—and serious dents start showing up.
Let us all remember Tim by the "tim hardaway jr photo spectacularrr" tag, and save a thought for your favorite Michigan basketball photographer.
This season's proliferation of Bo Ryan bug basketball combined with the electric NCAA final and how that final was marred by the gibbering incompetents in stripes to create an environment where you can't throw a rock without hitting someone suggesting changes intended to make basketball more watchable. Most of these are at least indirectly aimed at Bo Ryan.
Here are some ideas which I do not necessarily endorse, except in the case of removing timeouts. I have watched basketball at least once and therefore am passionately in favor of this.
[UPDATE: Andy Glockner just posted on this, too.]
Shorten the shot clock
Eamonn Brennan caught the normally shy and reticent Tom Izzo making an appearance on the radio in which he said this:
“We have the slowest game in the world,’” Izzo said. “As you say, the international [game] is less [slow]. The pro is less. The women’s is less. And here we are with 35 [seconds].
He went on to say that chopping the shot clock was discussed at the rules committee meetings in Atlanta. Brennan suggests a drop to 24 but if they did change this I'd guess they go with 30, an intermediate between the current clock and the same as the international game.
I'm not sure a drop does much to make basketball nicer to look at. If you go all the way to 24 you've got less good basketball players operating in an unrestricted zoning environment, which is a recipe for a lot of ugly no-look heaves at the basket with the buzzer going up. Is watching Wisconsin play in a 24-second shot clock world even grimmer? Maybe. I shudder to think about middling college teams trying to scrape together a shot in 14 seconds after barely busting a VCU or Louisville press. College players probing the Syracuse zone in 24 seconds… I mean. Yergh.
If it's 30 you have marginally increased the speed of the game and made it more difficult for bug people to squat on your enjoyment… at least when they're on offense. They'll squat all the fiercer on defense.
One positive development from a shorter shot clock is the increased attractiveness of running. It still seems like a minefield of unintended consequences.
Get rid of timeouts, the more the better
The only interesting thing that has ever happened during a timeout.
No one has specifically been suggesting this because they haven't been forced to watch a basketball game that's just gone under two minutes with both coaches in possession of four timeouts, but check twitter the next time this goes down. Basketball teams should get one time out, end story. If networks want to slightly bulge commercial breaks in compensation, fine. Anything is better than the end of a tight basketball game feeling like rush hour in Chicago.
For a quick check on what happens when you don't have timeouts, let's go to the end of the Michigan-Indiana game. Michigan is down one with twelve seconds left and no timeouts:
While the outcome was displeasing to Michigan fans, hey guess what it's still basketball, and for neutrals it was much better than the same thing after yet another 30 second break.
Severely reducing available timeouts has the added benefit of making games more chaotic at the end. You can't save a possession by calling TO on the floor; you have to inbound even if that seems like a bad idea; you can't bail yourself out when trapped in a corner. All those near-turnovers that end in an anti-climatic timeout are suddenly 50/50 balls, which favors the trailing team.
Unfortunately, an unholy conspiracy of control freak coaches and revenue-craving TV execs means this will never, ever happen.
Call those foul things
At right: possibly a foul. Possibly not. But it definitely wasn't called one. Probably.
The referees weren't perfect, but for the most part, Beilein felt the officials allowed players freedom of movement -- which, in his opinion, is the way the game should always be played.
"I like the way the NBA is played," Beilein told WWLS 98.1-FM on Monday. "If you put your hand on a guy, it's a foul.
"We actually teach it, and it hurts us sometimes when we're not as physical as other teams."
The national title game was poorly officiated all around. One of the ways in which it was is symptomatic of a larger trend and not just an OOOAAAWWWWHHHH outrage with no redeeming qualities: all those phantom fouls on Louisville once they'd stolen the ball. UL would foul Michigan up and down the court; refs wouldn't call it until Michigan was in a terrible position because of it and turned it over. There's a tendency to look at foul, see if it affects the play, and then call it. You know and hate those whistles that occur after the shot.
A foul should be a foul. No more talk about Deciding The Game. The refs are deciding the game either way. "Letting the players play" is in fact letting nobody play because it's hard to play basketball when people are bumping and grinding you. Letting people play leads to ugly rugby-scrum games. All year Michigan opponents would hand-check Burke; all year everyone would shuffle their chest into the shooter without consequence; all year you could plow into a three-point shooter on a closeout without getting a whistle except in the most extreme circumstances.
At this point there has to be a terrible period where a foul is redefined as a consistent thing not dependent on the game situation, which will lead to scads of ugly games with lots of free throws. It'll be like that period in the NHL when the powers that be decided that all that stuff in the rulebook was there for a reason. That was a half-season of misery, but the game came out better for it.
Also, for pants sake can we get an advantage call? If a foul does nothing to prevent a one-on-zero fast break, fling your arms out dramatically and give the foul at the next opportunity*, which will almost invariably be after the fast-break bucket. When it's not just whistle it when the opposing team gets the ball back. They can't complain, they committed a foul.
You'll like this a lot, basketball referees. It's very dramatic. You can pretend you're a matador, or super into right angles, and you can do it for seconds at a time when the play is still going on.
*[no shots, just the personal and the team foul.]
The usual NBA business
The NCAA has no power to change the NBA's one-and-done rule. If they did, they would have already done it. That doesn't stop people from coming up with better systems than the current one—all of them. Beilein advocates for a baseball model where you either go straight out of high school or hang around for three years:
"(My preference would) probably be very much like baseball," Beilein said earlier this week. "I think that would be a great thing. If there's a Kobe (Bryant) or LeBron (James) out of high school, he can get that big contract and go.
"If not, go (to college) for three years and make an educated decision. Then guys can redshirt and do all these things. That's ideal in my mind."
The NBA is unlikely to go for that since one of the main goals of one-and-done was to put their future stars in a year-long free marketing internship, and to prevent a bunch of high schoolers with no business declaring from doing so.
Actually, there are some things the NCAA can do to help out here. For one, they can change their archaic rules. If you opt into a draft, you're done. If you just get drafted, you can maintain your eligibility. The "you just get drafted" rule is in place in hockey, and while it has its flaws the end result is a lot more sensible. A couple years ago I made an extremely useful and no doubt soon-to-be-accepted proposed change to the draft that boils down to these points:
- Everyone gets drafted out of high school; they retain their eligibility. The draft expands a round or two.
- An NBA team signing a draft pick has to provide a guaranteed contract that lasts until the player is five years out of high school. They cannot reclaim this roster spot even if the player is cut.
- Drafted, unsigned players can participate in summer league.
As a bonus the NCAA could allow drafted players to retain agents, get some money, and go to NBA team activities on the team's dime. The NBA could execute the bulleted sections all on their own now, though.
This would move the "should I leave school" decision to the player and the team instead of an advisory board that's guessing. NBA teams would have to think hard about guaranteeing a high school kid money and a roster spot for five years, less hard about guaranteeing a junior two. The NCAA would enjoy an influx of attention from fans of pro teams tracking their draftees and could use that as a useful jumping off point from their archaic notions of amateurism.
Fire anyone who turns the act of calling a charge into a play in one act
Also never happening but as long as I'm getting this out of my system I figure I should mention this. God bless the guy who called the Morgan/Triche charge like he was Marvin the Paranoid Android.
Now that we’ve officially entered the dead period after Spring Ball and before Fall Camp, its time to start digging into some of the details. As always if you have something you want me to look into hit me up in the comments or on twitter.
Using some new software and my recruiting database, I wanted to see what the recruiting scene from the last 12 classes (2002-2013) look like on a map. Each BCS conference signee is shown with a dot and scaled to represent the consensus rating of that recruit. The larger the dot, the more highly regarded the recruit was. Metro areas have tons of recruits piled on top of each and are difficult to distinguish, but I think there are plenty of interesting things to pull from the overall picture.
The National Overview
B1G=Blue, SEC=Black, B12=Red, P12=Yellow, ACC=Teal, former Big East=Pink
Unsurprisingly the recruits center largely around the geographies of the schools they are attending. Florida is a jumbled mess across all of the conferences but there are very clear boundaries by conference. It is also amazing that other than Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Denver and west Texas there are essentially no FBS football recruits between the Pacific coast and I-35. It will be interesting to see what happens with this as geographical boundaries continue to overlap with the ongoing conference expansion.
B1G and SEC Country
The B1G Footprint
Although the Big Ten footprint has largely stayed at home to play, there are regions that have had some pull from outside conferences. Iowa is naturally split and the Big 12 has pulled a few other players from Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The Pac-10/12 has scored a couple of big Midwest recruits themselves and Eastern Ohio/Western Pennsylvania is a natural ground for competition between the Big 10, Pitt and West Virginia.
Even excluding Florida, the SEC looks to have held their territory about as well as the Big Ten has. The most striking thing to me, is how much coverage the SEC has across its geographic footprint. In the Big 10 there are areas of high population/recruit density with a fair amount of space between them. In the Southeast there are black dots everywhere. It appears as if every county is generating major college football recruits, not just the major metro areas.
[After the jump, a cartographer's dream]