Previously: Podcast 9.0A. Podcast 9.0B. Podcast 9.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense.

1. HOW ARE WE GONNA SURVIVE MAN? THEY'RE ALL GONE!

the dearly departed [Eric Upchurch]

Survive is easy. See Gary, Rashan. Thrive is harder. Michigan's talent drain has been significantly overblown in the national media, a land where Mo Hurst isn't a starter and there are significant question marks about Gary and Chase Winovich, but... uh... there was still a lot of it. See last year's NFL draft.

The main thing offsetting the talent drain is the Don Brown effect. His defenses have taken significant steps—sometimes massive leaps—forward in year two:

[metrics are yards per play, FEI, and S&P+; national ranks are presented. final column is the average of the three. Bolded years are Brown years.]

Forward motion for Michigan is impossible after last year's elite outfit, but the table makes it clear that imbibing Don Brown's defense is a multi-year process. Michigan has a bunch of new starters; none are freshmen, so they're actually more experienced in Brown's defense than the departed were. This resulted in a lot less pointing during the spring game, and an absence of the big safety busts that cropped up at inopportune times last year. (Except for that walk-on against Gentry.)

Bill Connelly's 2016 defensive radar tells a hell of a story:

That slice out of the circle of excellency is yards per completion. You'll note that Michigan was fantastic at preventing 20 yard passes, and just average at preventing 30 yard passes—the implication is that when Michigan busted they busted huge, as they did against Colorado early and FSU late. The above is what the platonic opposite of a bend-but-don't break defense looks like statistically.

Getting a little bit more bend in the defense will help. Michigan's going to lose ground everywhere else but if they can pull that yards per completion number up 60 or so spots that'll go a long way towards treading water. This is in fact the pattern Brown's defenses follow:

And though the Eagles had been vulnerable to giving up big plays on the back end in Brown’s first few seasons in Chestnut Hill, by Year 3 they got the personnel and the scheme to the point where they were solid on both ends. In 2013, Brown’s first year helming the defense, BC gave up 47 passing plays of more than 20 yards (tied for no. 97 nationally); in his last year, it gave up just 29 (tied for no. 10).

Michigan isn't going to be bend-but-don't-break, but they'll be moreso than last year, when they were awesome... and brittle.

The other arrow pointing in the right direction is turnover acquisition. Michigan was unlucky last year. They generated a ton of sacks (5th nationally) but did not see that pay off with a lot of turnovers. Despite having that defense above Michigan only managed 13 turnovers acquired, 67th. That's just bad luck, not dependent on coaching. Brady Hoke's first defense recovered 20 fumbles; Harbaugh's first team recovered 2. QED. They should expect to be favored by the turnover gods more this year, he said for the 100th straight time.

The rest of it is having a lot of talent. Michigan has two certain first round picks on the DL and three more guys who are highly likely to be drafted just in the front seven. The other six are too young to tell but are mostly tracking well outside of corner. These previews aren't afraid to hand out 1s and 2s when the situation appears to warrant it; Michigan is not in that situation. Some units will be average; some will be excellent, and Michigan will mostly maintain as they shift into a mode where consistency of approach and recruiting allows them to expect top defenses annually.

[After THE JUMP: solve your problems with...]

For 2017, instead of previewing conferences division-by-division, I decided to preview the 64 Power Five teams individually, so I ranked them and counted down from the bottom.

I created a ranking system based heavily off of Bill Connelly’s S&P+ rankings: half of the ranking comes from the S&P rankings from the past five seasons among Power Five teams (1/3 of that number is 2016’s ranking; 1/3 is the average from 2014-2016, 1/3 is the average from 2012-2016); half comes from two component parts of his 2017 S&P+ projections, weighed evenly – recruiting impact and returning production – and ranked 1 through 64. There is no subjectivity involved in these rankings and they skew towards emphasizing where the teams were according the 2016 S&P+. I think it serves as a decent way to sequence these previews.

Previously: #64 Purdue, #63 Rutgers, #62 Kansas, #61 Illinois, #60 Boston College, #59 Virginia, #58 Vanderbilt, #57 Syracuse. #56 Maryland, #55 Arizona, #54 Wake Forest, #53 Duke, #52 Iowa State, #51 Texas Tech, #50 Missouri, #49 Oregon State. #48 Arizona State, #47 Cal, #46 Indiana, #45 Kentucky, #44 West Virginia, #43 South Carolina, #42 Washington State, #41 Northwestern. #40 Minnesota, #39 Iowa, #38 Colorado, #37 Kansas State, #36 Utah, #35 Georgia Tech, #34 Nebraska, #33 Michigan State. #32 North Carolina, #31 NC State, #30 UCLA, #29 Mississippi State, #28 Oregon, #27 Arkansas, #26 Pittsburgh, #25 Baylor. #24 Oklahoma State, #23 Virginia Tech, #22 Georgia, #21 TCU, #20 Texas, #19 Tennessee. #18 Ole Miss, #17 Texas A&M, #16 Miami, #15 Wisconsin, #14 Louisville, #13 Washington. #12 Penn State, #11 Florida, #10 Stanford, #9 Auburn. #8 Michigan, #7 USC, #6 Oklahoma, #5 LSU.

(I didn’t include Notre Dame)

[hit the JUMP for the previews]

[Sponsor Note: Joe Pichey of GoBlueBBQ makes and writes these. He’ll also be grilling in Dallas tomorrow in Lot 11 and welcomes any MGoBlog readers to come by and sample.

He can do this because we have a sponsor:

It rhymes with “Santana”. It’s amazing. It’s at your local Kroger’s, Meijer’s, Busch’s, and hundreds of other stores. Seriously pick up some Sriracha Carrot and maybe White Bean for tomorrow’s game. Seriously.]

---------------------------------

The wait is over. The season kicks off in a few days and we can officially fire up the tailgate gear. If you are coming down here to the Dallas area, don’t forget your cowboy hats, leather chaps and spurs. We’d like to thank Matt from Lantana Hummus for sponsoring this years recipes and providing some fantastic goodies to munch on during halftime. It’s going to be a fun one, you can bet on that. We’ve added a new toy to the GOBLUEBBQ grilling arsenal for this season and she needs a name. Name the pit and receive VIP coupons for free hummus and a bag of Lump Charcoal from Fogo. Here are a few pics of the new pit. If you are coming down for the game, check us out in LOT 11 as we are doing a little tailgating for the opener.

Now onto the first weeks recipe, or should I say technique. This is a cool little way to fire up some protein more than a recipe. It’s cooking on a himalayan salt block. This can be done on a gas grill, charcoal grill or even on your gas stovetop. The salt block can also be used a serving plate for hot or cold foods. I’ve read where it has some sort of nutritional and spiritual benefits, but I use it because it’s a little different than just tossing meats on a grill. Today, we fired up the gas grill and had some scallops, ribeye and sausages laying around. We also found a hunk of grilling cheese in the back of the MGOFRIDGE.

[hit THE JUMP if you’ve had lunch today. If not…um…you may not want to see this on an empty stomach]

Previously: Podcast 9.0A. Podcast 9.0B. Podcast 9.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams.

1. Are we still in love with Harbaugh's offense? It was a bit inert last year.

[Bryan Fuller]

The last couple years this post has led off with a high-level look at the things Jim Harbaugh has done to keep his dinosaur-lookin-ass offense on the cutting edge. These have mostly focused on Harbaugh's little run tweaks that keep the opposition unbalanced: traps, offset draws, gap plays with zone principles, various ways to clobber people on the edge, and formations, formations, and more formations.

In UFR I try to have a reasonably low-level listing of all the plays Michigan runs. A typical game could have 15, 18, or even 20 runs different enough for me to name them separate things—and I'm sure there are subtleties I'm missing. Harbaugh's offense is a world away from any I've charted before. Everyone tweaks; everyone presents a moving target. (Except Late Carr-era Mike Debord.) The sheer blizzard of stuff Harbaugh throws out, with the offense adding new stuff almost weekly, is fun and effective.

But it wasn't the flashy tweaks and run schemes Harbaugh's resurrecting from the Fritz Crisler days that really stood out a year ago. It was Michigan's prep. When Athlon pinged Big Ten  coaches for anonymous takes on their compatriots, the Harbaugh mania stood out:

"The team is starting to reflect Jim — you could see it more last year."

"They want to outwork you. That was the whole satellite camp thing last offseason. He wanted to send a message to the SEC and other schools that he will outwork you to make up for any advantage you might have over Michigan."

"They’re scouting opponents better than anyone in our league. They’re at Alabama’s level of prep and analysis, and as they’ve started to fit talent you’re seeing the effects. It’s hard to surprise them."

This was clearest in the Michigan State game. As mentioned in the section on Mason Cole, Michigan comprehensively defeated the double A gap twist blitz that had annihilated Michigan for going on a decade. They didn't just defuse it, they ripped it:

The biggest tactical takeaway wasn't the existence of something but rather its absence: MSU's double A gap twist blitz. You may remember that blitz from Spittle Flecked Rich Rod Rant and Spittle Flecked Al Borges Rant way back when, because Michigan ate it over and over and over again for TFLs and stuffs and sacks. No longer. They still run it. It's not working.

Michigan's opening first down was a double A blitz that got Bullough through, but to do so he had to go so fast that he overran the play:

Michigan got the other guy; Cole probably biffs on Bullough but he doesn't compound the mistake by turning upfield. It's his block that makes the room for the Smith cutback, and then it's Godzilla versus the fishing village time. ...

This was even happening when Speight was your shotgun quarterback. Smith's six yard TD late in the second quarter was another double A blitz that Michigan had the answer for:

By this point it seemed clear that shotgun snaps got double A blitzed a lot, so Michigan might even have gone with the gun here specifically because they wanted the gut of the D to be linebackers instead of DTs. McDowell rips outside and finds air. ...

The trademark MSU defensive playcall was comprehensively beaten. Finally. All of these plays feature the extreme aggression of the MSU linebackers being used against them, something that Michigan hasn't been able to do in forever. Can't block 'em? Run right by 'em.

Michigan won't let that stuff happen to them for a decade straight anymore. So they've got that going for them.

Harbaugh continues to morph his offense, adapting it to the players at hand. Sometimes this backfires when his players can't imbibe the firehose he puts in front of them—see the departed OL. There's a reason that Harbaugh's offense developed so quickly and cromulently at Stanford, where his only asset early was a bunch of nerd brains. This year Michigan's OL makes most of the shift to the Harbaugh generation. The exceptions are Cole, an OL nerd brain if there ever was one, and Kugler, the son of an OL coach in his fifth year.

This might be the year Michigan can really start making some hay by out-smarting the opposition. To date they've given some of that back with blizzards of missed assignments. Now they've got a shot at really paying off on that diversity. So, yes. Harbauffense for real.

[After THE JUMP: Pep effect, and running a dang stretch]

GIS “gatorshark”

Things discussed:

• Florida: How do you lose 12% of your roster to credit card fraud?
• This has been a really yappy offseason for Florida, and it’s been mostly coming from the top.
• Media-Harbaugh Industrial Complex
• More Florida: did the Muschamp D graduate or are these guys talented enough to remain a dangerous defense fettered to an Austrian-Hungarian offense?
• Sam is now more concerned about the secondary than the offensive line. Experience matters and Brown is going to make them run a complicated system. Don’t need to grow up until Game 7.
• Brian’s yard has no grass.
• More Florida: their OTs are dinged up too. That’s bad for you.
• Stupid Dallas game because they can jack up the ticket prices and don’t have to share with the conference. It’s a bad reason. But this was scrounging after ND screwed them; let’s never do this again.
• Sam shares how prepared M is for Air Force this time.
• Speight is the guy and here’s why.
•  

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream on Audioboom.

Segment two is here. Segment three is here.

THE USUAL LINKS

• Helpful iTunes subscribe link
• General podcast feed link
• Direct download link
• What's with the theme music?

1 hours and 10 minutes

MGoRadio is recorded before a live audience: Fridays before home games at The Bo Store, and Thursdays nights at various locations before away games. This one was before a drinking audience at a cool tailgate space on 327 East Hoover because Matt from HomeSure Lending was throwing us a Football Eve party.

---------------------------------

The Sponsors

We can do this because people support us. You should support them too so they’ll want to do it again next year! The show is presented by UGP & Bo Store, and if it wasn’t for Rishi and Ryan we probably would have real jobs.

Our other sponsors are also key to all of this: Homesure Lending, Ann Arbor Elder Law, the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, the University of Michigan Alumni Association, Michigan Law Grad, Peak Wealth Management, and Lantana Hummus

---------------------------------

The Preview: Wrap

starts at 1:00

Replace Braden and Kalis with Onwenu and Kugler and you’re not losing much; Mags to Ulizio/whomever is a downgrade. The sophomores are better sophomores than we’ve seen in a long time.

The State of Florida

starts at 21:58

Try really hard not to say “Sharkfuckers” a hundred times. Really wanted Zaire to win that job—starting a redshirt freshman is not optimal.

Gimmicky Top Five New Prospectin’ Names

starts at 41:24

Matt Demorest joins us and scores Brian and Ace as they come with new prospecting nicknames for new players we are going to enjoy. J’Marick Woods is now Ol’ J’Marick Woods.

Ranking the Opponents

starts at 52:11

Maryland and Minnesota are going to come in the top half, aren’t they?

---------------------------------

MUSIC:

• “Warships”—Oblivion
• “Gold Rush”—Ol’ unknown pianist
• “Every Empty Town”—Dear Noble Reader, which was the band of reader @WolverSwede and friends
• “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS

• Helpful iTunes subscribe link
• General podcast feed link
• Direct download link
• What's with the theme music?