this week in unintentionally grim-sounding recruiting headlines
Be sure to read the official mgoblog recruiting philosophy before committing suicide over anything you read here.
A Note on "Stars": These are my guesstimates. Players don't have stars associated with them yet. When the recruiting services add them I'll adjust my ratings. Half-stars appear to provide some additional accuracy. Generally a 4.5 star is a guy solidly in the top 100 on Scout/Rivals/ESPN and really highly rated by one. A 3.5 star is either a guy who is is a 3 on one site and a 4 on the other or a four-star that no one seems particularly excited about.
A Note on Premium Info: No illicit sharing of said material will appear on this site. Players are listed with interested schools in their profiles; this information is public. Commitments are by definition public. Any assertions as to schools in the mix, decision dates, or leaders I will back up with links to public information.
Projected Class Size:
As of right now: 14, with reasonable attrition bumping the number to 17 and a likely transfer or two plus a default level of knuckleheadedness getting Michigan to 20 or so. More detail on the scholarship situation can be found at the depth chart by class.
|Expired Eligibility||Massey, Taylor, Johnson, Thompson, Harrison, Trent, Panter, Logan, Jamison, Dutch, Stewart||11|
|Early Entry||Possibilities: Graham, Butler.||~1|
|Unrenewed Fifth||Possibilities: Savoy, Criswell||~1|
Anything not in the "expired eligibility" is a wild-ass guess from me; read nothing into it.
Update 6/16: Removed SC WR Alshon Jeffery(USC), MI OL Zac Mattias (Wisconsin).
Added TX K Anthony Fera, FL CB Angelo Hadley (via VB), SC OL Quinton Washington, PA OL Adam Gress ($, info in header), VA DE Will Hill, MI RB Zurlon Tipton, AR CB Darius Winston (info in header), SC S Damario Jeffery, LA LB Barkevious Mingo, TX S Rex Burkhead.
Update 6/23: Moved IL OL Michael Schofield to committed. More on Schofield from Varsity Blue and the Sun-Times. Linked to articles on NC S DJ Swearinger, SC OL Quinton Washington, IN OL Zach Martin, OK RB David Oku, PA OL Adam Gress, second on Gress, GA LB Devekeyan Lattimore.
Added TX WR Dwayne Peace.
Also, I'm not sure what to do with "wingedathletics.tk" but it looks like there's some legit info there. Also, a roundup article from Kornblut has some useful info. Zac Mattias committed to Wisconsin; this might be why.
The genre of player with unrequited interest in Michigan. Unlikely to receive offers; most will eventually fade off the list and go to Duke or Michigan State or something.
Player is a longshot. Either they've declared someone else a leader publicly or popular opinion holds that they're likely to go to another school.
Either no opinion or Michigan is one of a fairly even group of chasing schools. Players in this category maintain no leader or change their leader frequently. The default category for players that we don't know much about yet.
Players who have Michigan in a small leading group or have Michigan as a tenuous favorite. Should be regarded as a good shot, not a slam dunk.
Player is either a verbal or is expected to be one sooner or later. Players with this designation are 65%+ to be Michigan commits.
Needs: Severe, desperate, desperately severe and desperate. David Cone apparently is not panning out, -- he was behind a walk-on last year -- which leaves Michigan with two freshmen and no one else. Michigan needs at least two dual-threat quarterbacks to run the Rodriguez system after picking up Justin Feagin last year, who's fast but may not be a QB.
Projected Commits: 2, with maybe another one or two guys being brought in at WR being promised a shot at QB.
Update: Michigan has two strong prospects in the fold and is unlikely to reel in another, but given strong interest from a couple good prospects I've kept them on the board until we're officially dropped.
|Kevin Newsome||VA||****.5||Michigan||BP thread. USA Today article. Local newspaper commit article. Track video, article. Rivals AMP piece.|
|Shavodrick Beaver||TX||****||Michigan||Offer. ESPN note. MGoBlog on Beaver. Post-commit ESPN quote. Rivals AMP piece.|
|Tate Forcier||CA||****||PSU, M, Oregon, others||Brother of former UM QB Jason. Offer. Many impressive early offers. Personal site; stats. ESPN note.|
|Mywan Jackson||FL||***||open||Offered as an athlete/QB, probably will be given a shot and then moved if he ends up here. Video.|
Running Back / Fullback
Needs: Minor. With Shaw and McGuffie and Cox in the last class, Michigan can afford to go light this year. They'll probably take one RB (Cass Tech's Teric Jones turned in the fastest 40 of anyone at the Army All-America camp), with a second slot being reserved only for a can't miss sort.
Fullbacks? Maybe one, actually. Michigan didn't take one a year ago and the Rodriguez system likes to have a pounding dive threat for its triple options a la Owen Schmitt. Ohioan Zach Boren, legendarily tearful at the idea his older brother Justin would go to Ohio State, is now a rising senior and probably fits best here, though he might have a place somewhere on D.
Projected Commits: 1-2 RB, 0-1 FB.
|Teric Jones||MI||***.5||Michigan||Cass Tech (Cissoko, Campbell.) Fastest kid at Army combine. Video. MGoBlog on Jones. ATH WR.|
|Fitzgerald Toussaint||OH||****||Michigan||Youngstown Liberty (Isaiah Bell). MGoBlog on Toussaint. Vindicator article.|
|David Wilson||VA||****||M, VT, UVA, UNC, Clemson||Offer. Roanoke.com article.|
|David Oku||OK||****.5||M, FSU, Tenn lead Ill, Neb||Rivals #20; video. Scout article; local news article. Interview; second. DetNews article.|
|Tavon Austin||MD||****||open||Offer. Baltimore Sun article, second.|
|Vincent Smith||FL||***||open||Offer. Pahokee (Martavious Odoms)|
|Jamaal Berry||FL||****.5||OSU leads UF, others ong>||Offer. Video. Article. Scout article.|
|Ronnie Wingo||MO||****.5||open||Army All-Combine team. Highly rated, but we seem uninvolved.|
|Zurlon Tipton||MI||**||open||major sleeper impressed at M one-day camp.|
|Hersey Jackson||MI||***||CMU, Cinci, others||Video. After a lot of early hype now seems like he may not be Michigan caliber.|
Needs: Moderate. Michigan did pick up four in the last class, including blue-chipper Darryl Stonum and a couple of exciting jitterbug sorts, but the spread demands at least three guys on the roster at all times and Rodriguez has shown a predilection for bringing in as many little speedy buggers as he can get his hands on no matter the situation.
Projected Commits: 3.
|Bryce McNeal||MN||****||Michigan||Offer. Video. Scout article. GopherHole interviews: one, two. Down to two. Fluff. Detnews article. GBW article.|
|Jeremy Gallon||FL||***.5||Michigan||Offer. Slot waterbug. Single wing QB in HS. Rivals article. Apopka preseason #1. Profile. MGoBlog on Gallon. Video versus Edgewater, Lake Brantley, and Eustis. Postgame interview.|
|Marlon Brown||TN||*****||M one of 15||Hulking, high profile guy. Video.|
|Shaquelle Evans||CA||****.5||UCLA leads LSU, ND, USC, others||Offer. LA Times article, will visit.|
|Dion Sims||MI||****||M, MSU, OSU.||Father an M employee. ATH TE, LB, DE... only tentatively here. Offer. Detnews article.|
|Cameron Gordon||MI||****||M, MSU, Minn||ATH S. Rivals article, Scout interview.|
|Braxton Lane||GA||***||M, UF, USC, Aub, UGA||Offer. Scout article.|
|Terrelle Mitchell||GA||***||M, SoCar, Florida, Rutgers, others||Offer, M lead(?).|
|Todd Thomas||PA||***||M, Pitt, Miami, BC, WVU||Offer. Basketball article. BP thread. PPG article, interview.|
|Jamal Patterson||GA||****||open||Offer. AJC article, second.|
|Kenny Bell||LA||****||M, LSU, Miami, others||Offer.|
|Rantavious Wooten||FL||***||LSU leads M, Miami, UGA, WVU||Video. GatorCountry thread. Scout article.|
|Willie Haulstead||SC||***||M, LSU, Miami, UCF||Rising player.|
|Dwayne Peace||TX||***||M leads Kansas, A&M||Camp offer. ATH DB.|
|Jheranie Boyd||NC||****||Clemson leads M, SoCar, others.||ESPN article, RP thread. Seems like a longshot.|
|Josh Gordon||TX||***||M leads big||Houston Lamar. All-Army Combine team, impressive performance. Would commit if offered.|
|Steadman Bailey||SC||***||SoCar, Tenn, Auburn, M, others||No offer yet... might not get one.|
|Shawne Kersey||NJ||***||M, Rutgers, BC, Wisc, WVU||Also had an impressive performance at the Army combine.|
Needs: Minimal. Michigan will enter 2008 with six tight ends on the roster, only one of whom is a senior, just in time for Rich Rodriguez to bring a TE de-emphasizing spread to Ann Arbor. While Rodriguez will probably take advantage of the athletic abilities possessed by Butler, Moore, et al, he's probably not going to bring in any new guys here unless there's a couple positions switches from the existing group or he brings in a guy like Sims who might outgrow wide receiver.
Projected Commits: 0.
Needs: Moderate. You always want to take at least three, IMO, even when you took six the year before, and since the class of 2007 has just two players, one of whom was a real flier, Michigan will again be looking for a lot of bodies here. Fortunately, there are somewhere between 2-4 instate linemen who are Michigan caliber.
Also lurking, at least as much as anyone his size can lurk, is Trotwood-Madison OL Chris Freeman. Michigan raided Trotwood for three players a year ago, of course, and might have the inside track on him. Freeman's very Michael Oher: enormous even for an OL (he's 6'9"!) and sushi raw, having played only four football games in his life.
Projected Commits: 3-4.
|Mike Schofield||IL||****||Michigan||MGoBlog on Schofield. Sun-Times. Varsity Blue.|
|Marcus Hall||OH||****||OSU leads USC, Ill, 'Bama, M||Cleveland Glenville. Scout, and again.|
|Chris Freeman||OH||****||open||Offer. Trotwood-Madison (Shaw, Moore, Roundtree). BP thread, Scouting Ohio video. Bucknuts article. Daily Mail article.|
|Brennan Williams||MA||****||M, BC, PSU, Stan, UVA||Offer. Childhood favorite.|
|Chris Watt||IL||****||M, Ill, ND, others||Offer; guard prospect. Scout article. GoVols article.|
|Zach Martin||IN||****||M, UK, ND, Ill, Pur||Offer. Father played at UK. Scout article.|
|Andrew Carter||FL||****||FSU leads M, SoCar, others.||Plans visit.|
|Morgan Moses||VA||****||open||Offer. RP Thread. Article. Crush blocks!|
|Adam Gress||PA||****||M, WVU lead PSU, UVA||Offer. Scout article; second.|
|Quinton Washington||SC||***||Bama, Tenn, Clemson, SoCar, Miami, M||"Also a factor." Article.|
|Everett Benyard||CA||****||M, ND, USC, UCLA||Childhood M fan who claims M still #1. ESPN 150 watch list.|
|Nick Ash||TX||***||KU, Neb, M, TT, others||BBQ visitor.|
|Jeff Fantuzzi||MI||***||open||Junior day visitor; may or may not be offerable.|
|Blake Graham||PA||***||M, WVU, others||No offer yet.|
|Khalil Wilkes||NJ||***||M, ND, PSU, others||No offer yet.|
|Logan Massengagle||TN||***||MTSU, UGA, M||No offer yet. Will camp.|
Needs: Moderate. Last year Michigan got a good prospect in Novi's Mike Martin and has three rising sophomores who saw playing time. An early commit from 2009 five-star Will Campbell helps a lot, but Campbell insists he's going to take all five official visits -- he's pretty soft. Michigan probably needs one more DT.
Projected Commits: 2.
|Will Campbell||MI||*****||Michigan (soft)||Committed at M summer camp during his junior year, then dominated the Army Combine. Currently #23 overall to Rivals. Video interview. Detnews article.|
|Corey Adams||AZ||****||open||Offer. RP thread.|
Needs: Severe. One commit in the last two classes at a position with two starters is asking for trouble. Even if a linebacker or tight end moves here, Michigan still needs quantity and quality. So the lack of names below? Scary.
Projected Commits: 3.
|Chris Bonds||SC||****||M, USC, ND, Other USC||Offer. Scout article. M in leading group of seven.|
|Craig Roh||AZ||****||M, USC, ND, UCLA, others||USC lead; will visit. Article.|
|Sam Montgomery||SC||****||tentative USC, LSU, Miami lead||Offer. Originally from Detroit, sort of. ESPN article.|
|Anthony LaLota||NJ||****||UVA, PSU, ND, UF, M||Not recruiting much yet but seems interested. Scout article. Rivals article, Terry Bowden breaks down film(!).|
|Keenan Graham||NV||****||USC leads UCLA, M||Done blowed up recently; offer, will visit.|
|Will Hill||VA||***||M, SoCar tenative lead||Offer.|
|Jason Ankrah||MD||***||M, PSU, Tenn, VT||Offer.|
|Tyrone Ezell||PA||***||M, Pitt, OSU, PSU||No offer yet.|
|Josh Boyd||MS||***||>M, most of SEC, USM||Offer. Impressive set of early offers. Scout article.|
|Fletcher Cox||MS||***||M, most of SEC||Scout article. ESPN profile.|
|Kadeem Custis||PA||***||M, WVU, others||ATH OL, DT. Scout article.|
Needs: With four players, all of them highly rated by one service or another, in last year's class and a returning starter with three more years of eligibility Michigan can afford to take it a little easy here.
Projected Commits: 2.
|Jelani Jenkins||MD||*****||open||WaPo article. Video.|
|Frankie Telfort||FL||****||open||Offer. ATH S.|
|Devekeyan Lattimore||GA||****||M, Clemson, Okie State, others||Offer. Takkle profile. AJC article.|
|Jordan Barnes||IN||****||M leads Ill, Bama, Wisc||Offer. Father played with ex-MSU HC Bobby Williams, now with 'Bama.|
|Barkevious Mingo||LA||****||open||Offer. Scout interview.|
|AJ Fenton||PA||***||open||Spring visitor.|
|David Conner||MS||***||MissSt, Miss, M, others||Offer?|
|Brandin Hawthorne||FL||***||M leads USF, UL, UT, WVU||Offer? Pahokee (Odoms).|
|Greg King||TN||***||open||No offer yet.|
|Jeremy Gainer||MI||***||open||possible camp offer.|
Needs: Major. This might be a slice of MGoBlog paranoia, but with college football moving ever more strongly to the passing game it seems like you should regard the corner spot as the realm of three starters. Michigan has Donovan Warren returning, Boubacar Cissoko incoming, and then things get dodgy. The two-star running back recruit who's also 6'4"? The guy who came in at WR and is bouncing back and forth between the two positions as we speak? The unheralded legacy recruit? JT Floyd?
Man, that creeps me out.
Projected Commits: 2.
|Justin Turner||OH||****.5||Michigan||Massillon (Shawn Crable). ATH CB. BP thread. MGoBlog on Turner. Commit article.|
|Dre Kirkpatrick||AL||*****||open||Offer, plans M visit. Scout #1 CB.|
|Darius Winston||AR||*****||M leads Clemson, Texas, others||Arkansas decommit. Rivals article. Video.|
|Gabe Lynn||OK||****.5||open||Offer. Negative note from ESPN.|
|Brandon McGee||FL||*****||OSU leads many||ATH QB, WR. Offer.|
|Darrell Mason||OH||***||open||BP Thread.|
|Angelo Hadley||FL||***||M, Aub, UGA, Clemson, UNC.||Offer.|
|Marsalis Teague||TN||***||open||Offer, ATH S, WR.|
|David Gordon||OK||***||OK, M, TTech||Offer. Will visit.|
|Travis Hawkins||MD||****||open||Offer. Video. WaPo article. RCMB thread.|
Needs: Moderate. Jonas Mouton is an OLB and Jerimy Finch can't decide what he wants on his Big Mac, let alone which school he wants to go to, leaving Michigan with Steve Brown, Michael Williams, and Artis Chambers across the last two classes
Projected Commits: 2.
|Isaiah Bell||OH||***.5||Michigan||Youngstown Liberty. MGoBlog on Bell. ATH OLB. Good combine performance. ESPN article.|
|Darren Myles||GA||****||open||Offer; AJC article; second, ESPN hype. VolsExtra article.|
|Jonathan Scott||FL||****||M, LSU, FSU||Offer. Normally a guy listing M in the top three would get a green, but not so much. Scout article.|
|Vladimir Emilien||FL||****||M, OSU, others||Offer. BP thread.|
|DJ Swearinger||SC||****||Tenn leads Aub, UGA, others||Offer. Teammate of SC DE Sam Montgomery. Scout article.|
|Mike Jones||FL||***||M, ND lead Wake, Aub||Offer. Orlando Edgewater (Greg Mathews).|
|Dennis Thames||MS||***||Miss St leads M, LSU, M, others||Nephew of Detroit Tiger Marcus Thames. Scout article; second article. Offer.|
Needs: KC Lopata will be gone by the time this class arrives on campus and recruited K Bryan Wright has been relegated to kickoffs, so they might look for a kicker. Punter is covered by Zoltan Mesko for another two years.
|Anthony Fera||TX||***||M, Oregon, LSU, PSU, OSU||Offer.|
Projected Commits: 0, though if someone wants to walk on they'll take him.
A reminder: the Star Scale for Rumor Credibility.
- 0-star: incoherent ravings.
- 1-star: clearly biased speculation without backing.
- 2-star: Some guy saying something on some board that claims insider info due to a chance occurence.
- 3-star: Information from someone less established as an insider but a frequent poster who seems sane and useful.
- 4-star: recognized insider-type person with no ax to grind who has established his bonafides on past recruits.
- 5-star: actually verified by an article and a quote from the player, a family member, or a coach.
So. Cutoff is two stars... sometimes three. Played by feel. In the future there will be denotations as follows:
UV: the information in sum(star rating).
Links will be provided so you can judge for yourself; posts that will fall into the memory hole will be copied for posterity.
Update 3/31: Added NJ DE Anthony LaLota, OH RB Fitzgerald Toussaint, AZ DE Craig Roh (offer, USC lead), CA OL Everett Benyard, CA WR Shaquelle Evans, SC QB Stephon Gilmore (article header), FL S Frankie Telfort.
Removed KS LB Jaydan Bird (OK), OH FB Zach Boren (just a feeling), TX S Craig Loston (dropped us).
Update 4/21: Added FL RB Jamaal Berry, FL DT Antwan Lowry, FL QB Eugene Smith, and FL RB Vincent Smith based on this Sam Webb article in the Detnews. Added MD CB David Givens (though I think he's a longshot), OK CB Gabe Lynn, PA DE Kadeem Custis, GA WR Braxton Lane, IN OL Zach Martin($), TX QB Shavodrick (hur) Beaver($), PA LB AJ Fenton, AZ DT Corey Adams, TN OL Alex Bullard.
Removed FL WR Duron Carter, who we don't appear involved with, FL QB Aaron Murray (UGA), VA RB Damien Thigpen (Tenn), MD CB David Givens (OSU), PA RB Jordan Hall (OSU), PA LB Dorian Bell (uh... OSU).
Stuff lifted from Varsity Blue: not getting OH OL Marcus Hall (Glenville, no surprise), mildly informative item on SC S Devonte Holloman, piece with quote from FL DT Antwan Lowery, VA QB Kevin Newsome's myspace page... encouraging!
Moved OH RB Fitzgerald Toussaint to committed.
Update 4/28: Various things on FL QB Eugene Smith, including a wild brawl and profile, 7-on-7 video. Linked to video of MI WR Hersey Jackson and OH OL Chris Freeman, articles on AZ DE Craig Roh (from VB), TX WR Josh Gordon, IN QB Morgan Newton, OK RB David Oku, MI WR James Jackson (plus OSU speculation), GA QB Donovan Tate, a couple interviews with MN WR Bryce McNeal, note on CA WR Shaquelle Evans. Moved VA QB Kevin Newsome to committed. Added NC WR Jheranie Boyd, SC DE Sam Montgomery (ESPN), NC OL Xavier Nixon, MI LB Jeremy Gainer.
Apparently we just offered OH OL Corey Linsley, but I'm not adding him because I'd need to make some sort of super-nefarious Eduardo if I did; ticketed to OSU. (Update: he committed.) Removed LA DT Chris Davenport (dropped us), MN WR Fritz Rock (no mutual interest).
Update 5/2: Moved TX QB Shavodrick Beaver to committed. Subsequently removed all QBs except for Tate Forcier and Eugene Smith, who are downgraded to red, and SC QB Stephen Gilmore, who was moved to safety.
Linked to video of FL RB Jamaal Berry, interview of MI WR Cameron Gordon, articles on MI WR Cameron Gordon, MS S Rod Woodson($, downgrade to red), OH OL Chris Freeman, VA RB David Wilson, TX QB commit Shavodrick Beaver, note on FL WR Steadman Bailey (downgrade to gray). old articles on NJ DE Anthony Lalota.
Removed SC S Stephen Gilmore (dropped us).
Light posting today. While I don't particularly crave college basketball, I'm not a communist who won't spend all of today watching the opening round.
Spring Practice. Michigan's now producing its own internet video on, uh, the internet:
Relativity. The statement "I was a cage fighter" is never not surprising. Unless it comes from a guy with an eyepatch, maybe. Revised statement: the statement "I was a cage fighter" is never not surprising coming from a guy without an eyepatch. But in terms of how surprising the surprise is when someone says "I was a cage fighter," this ranks pretty low:
"Barwis was a cage fighter. He was 36-0 and never missed a match. He was telling us about 50 different injuries and never missed a match, and some of those injuries probably would have ended my career."
Well, yeah. Of course Barwis was a cage fighter.
Blow it up. A biglong study purporting to dispute the legitimacy of recruiting rankings recently appeared on something called "omninerd" and got some play around the blogosphere, especially with the group of folks headed by the Wizard of Odds (who is, not coincidentally, an Official Journalist; Official Journalists always but always love dumping on recruiting sites) that take every opportunity to declare recruiting rankings bunk.
It was a crap study and SMQB destroyed it capably:
If you didn't know better â€“ or if, like the author, you assume a normal distribution in which most of a sample falls into the median ranges (two and three stars) and narrows at either end â€“ you'd think this data suggests the "star system" is random, and not much more predictive of elite success than pulling prospects' names out of a hat.
We do know better, though, and so, it seems, does the author, who did begin late in the article to look at the number of prospects within each "star" category. Unfortunately, he didn't get very far at this crucial distinction, only comparing the number of five-star designations awarded by each of the two services in question over the last six years, and failing to compare these numbers with the number of prospects in other star levels because "the necessary data isn't available."
Still, even without this information, he goes on to make conclusions based on the raw numbers and the assumption of normal distribution: the data is not "biased high" toward the four and five-star end of the scale as it should be if those labels were accurate predictors of success; there's an "abnormally large number" of 0-star outliers on the all-America teams; and finally, in the "Concluding Comments," the author writes,
...the prospect rankings exist with the sole purpose of predicting the likelihood a player [will] succeed at the generalized college level. Accurate rankings should take these factors into account and still show a much greater percentage of 5-star recruits making the All-America team than 0-stars.
- - -
with the clear implication that the rankings in question have failed to accomplish that purpose. ...
Five-star prospects were about three times as likely to earn an all-America vote than four-star prospects, five-and-a-half times as likely as a three-star prospect, eleven times as likely as a one, two or zero-star prospect. If the setting was 'random; â€“ if the rankings were worthless â€“ every level would show roughly the same 1 in 59 odds of producing an all-American. Three, four and five-star prospects all fared better than that, the top two much better than that. Zero, one and two-stars were not close. If you pay attention to the distribution of the star rankings, the results are nothing like a bell curve.
So that's that, basically. I would like to add the following objections to those voiced by SMQB:
- "All American" is a stupid metric. AA status is frequently a product of media hype and not necessarily actual ability, especially on the lines and in the secondary. Second, there are plenty of kickass players who don't make the AA team, and restricting the study to just All-Americans provides a major sample size limitation. Better would be all-conference teams from the BCS conferences, preferably coaches, and definitely for more than one year.
- Sample size. One year is not a good sample size.
- Kickers and punters are included. Recruiting sites pretty much throw up their hands about specialists, never ranking them higher than three stars; this is a major distorting factor.
The big kahuna is the one that SMQB tackled, though: there are like 25 five star players and nearly 1000 three-stars.
All this is totally invalid for Terrelle Pryor -- henceforth known as The Next Marcus Vick until such time as he opens a can of whoopass on Michigan, whereupon he will be known as Daddy Make The Bad Man Stop -- who is a headcase we didn't want anyway and will undoubtedly be a team cancer that will metastasize in the Buckeye bloodstream and cause the entire state to implode one day, leaving nothing but a foul smell and a sixth Great Lake, which we will call "Lake Steve".
OMG LOL. The Daily published reports of psychology professors flaming each other in the aftermath of the AA News piece:
The Michigan Daily obtained an e-mail message yesterday sent by Bill McKeachie, professor emeritus of the psychology department, to the entire department, saying he was "aghast" that Prof. Paris would allege academic misconduct by Hagen. He called the allegation "a crazy destructive thing."
"I did not reply to those reports, I never said a disparaging word about John, and I did not write the story in the Ann Arbor News," Paris wrote. "If being concerned about academic integrity in the department, and following standard procedures for reporting those concerns, 'burns my bridges' at UM, it will be unfortunate, but I chose to follow my principles about teaching at UM. I can live with that, and hope my colleagues can also."
Aaaaand this is why old people + computers == bad news:
Theresa Lee, who chairs the Department of Psychology, said she thought McKeachie might have sent the e-mail to the entire department by mistake, hitting "Reply to all" instead of "Reply."
Ah, "reply to all," the feature you should have to take a three-credit independent study course on before your email client is allowed to have it.
Hockey update: further fiddling with You Are The Committee reveals that even an 0-2 flameout by ND does not necessarily result in a Wisconsin bid if the right team (Princeton) wins the ECAC. There is also the possibility of a third team from HE making its
way in via autobid. Two teams out of the tourney right now meet in one semifinal, the winner taking on the UNH-BC winner for all the proverbial marbles. So there are many paths to a friendly Madison regional, none of which occur if Michigan doesn't win at the Joe.
Etc.: More spring practice.
That is all.
Brian, I currently work in collegiate athletics and want to provide some more perspective on the Carty article. (My background quickly, if it matters...UM BA in Econ 2003 [started in Civil Engineering!] / worked in Midwestern mid-major athletic dept. from 04-07 / start work in Ivy League athletic dept. in T-minus 8 days)
First, you are correct in your assertion that "a similar examination of any program in the country would turn an equal or greater level of academic offense." Just because it's happening everywhere doesn't make it okay. Also, we're talking about one very particular situation at UM with Prof. Hagen. Clearly, there is something funny going on there. However, your response doesn't talk about the questions/issues/problems that Carty brings up.
I agree with much of what you say, but UM should be held to a higher standard than 'any program in the country'. Seriously, today's student-athletes lead extraordinary lives - the amount of time that each person spends on his/her sport (practice, strength & conditioning, travel, competition, study hall, community service, etc.) is astounding. And on top of all that, they still have to find time for school. However, todays student-athletes receive an incredible amount of assistance (tutors, study hall, breaks on missing classes/tests, specific advisers, etc.). That's all well-and-good in my eyes. The university pays it back for the dedication and commitment.
But, a student-athlete shouldn't be receiving special assistance from individual professors, any moreso than the rest of the general population. Is it so hard to believe that Hagen is a rogue professor that gives special breaks to UM athletes? Is it also so hard to believe that UM investigated Hagen and found sketchy stuff going on but 1) received a bunch of pressure from Athletics to not do anything about it (believe me, it does happen) and/or 2) didn't want to throw esteemed Prof. Hagens name in the dirt because it would make them look bad, or for fear or repercussion.
The fact (or assertion) that academic services staff funneled student-athletes into Hagen's classes isn't surprising, but it doesn't make it okay. I'm not really sure where the fault lies, you can't blame the staff for trying their damndest to keep kids eligible, you can't blame the student-athletes for taking an easy A, and you can't blame cool Prof. Hagen for wanting to be an insider. For me, it comes down to 'lack of institutional control' by UM administration.
But, Brian please don't use the argument that you can't graduate student-athletes without 'hijinks' as your response to Carty.
Multiple part-response. Part I: "Everyone does it" does not make it okay, that is correct. What makes it okay is the bizarre system in place wherein the only way to make it into a potentially lucrative career in the NFL (and various pro basketball leagues -- one-and-done guys are exceedingly uncommon compared to guys who stay two or three or four years and either make the NBA or head to Europe) is to go to a school you (very probably) aren't prepared to go to.
Michael Oher is the platonic ideal here: a guy who has no business in anything approximating a University except on the football field, but as long as he can maintain his eligibility will get the specialized coaching and training required to turn his massive frame into a golden ticket. Is it more moral to say "sorry, Mike, but please return to the Memphis ghetto"?
I am not bothered by the idea that Michigan admits a certain subset of students who are amongst the 99th percentile in ability in their chosen field -- sports -- but lag badly in other areas because I don't see a difference between sports and other sorts of entertainment-based fields that are academically sanctioned.
The argument I'm trying to advance is different from "everyone does it": everyone should do it, within reason. No one is served by stripping a kid of his eligibility and, later, his scholarship, because he can't hack his coursework. "Won't" is different, of course, and in cases where players aren't going to class and aren't putting in an honest effort there have to be repercussions. But these are largely remedial students; it shouldn't come as a surprise that they need guidance.
Part II: I've never subscribed to the whole "Michigan should be held to a higher standard" thing. Michigan should be held to the exact same standard everyone else should be: to do their best to educate and provide a platform for a stable adult life for their athletes. A large number of athletes deemed eligible by the NCAA are so far behind an average Michigan undergraduate that they would have no chance of maintaining eligibility without the full-time academic support Michigan provides. I think they care about their kids' outcomes and try very hard to keep them eligible, educate them as much as they can given each individual's starting point, and get them degrees. Nothing in the articles changed my opinion on that.
Part III: The Hagen stuff looks bad, and in certain cases it's clear Michigan has exploited him to keep players eligible. That shouldn't happen. But there's enough of a non-athlete population (about 50 over the three years surveyed) for comparison, and it appears that Hagen's just an easy A for anyone.
It does bother me that Hagen appears to be an option for multiple classes for a few students. I don't mind the possibility of one Get Out of Jail Free card, as long as the appropriate amount of work is done. But, like, Chad Kolarik appears to be taking a major in Professor Hagen. Though I love Chad (woo Friday hat trick!), that shouldn't happen.
I'm not trying to excuse the U entirely here: the Ann Arbor News did indeed turn up a few incidents and one general trend that should not be repeated and should be stopped, respectively. But, man... other than the stuff on Day I the rest of it has been weak sauce.
Part IV: This is obviously not ideal. Ideally, you could major in the thing you came to campus to do and spend most of your time on -- say 30 pass-fail credits available in it -- and the University could come to grips with the fact that many of the guys in this major need some remedial courses to get them up to speed. The important thing here, IMO, is to measure progress from a benchmark set when the player arrives on campus. Measure his academic ability when he arrives and when he leaves, compile an index and always strive to improve it.
I'm tired of living in this fairyland where universities have to lie and athletes have to struggle and fans have to close their eyes at the purported sausage factory; we should acknowledge the reality of the situation and just go about the business of doing it. We're here. We're sports teams inexplicably attached to institutions of learning that have drifted pretty far from their original intent anyway. Get used to it.
I'm already resigned to the fact that you will bash and denigrate Carty, and basically say one of the following:
* There's no problem with academics in the Athletic Department.
* Carty is a blowhard.
* Harbaugh doesn't know what he's talking about, and is a traitor to boot.
* Every big time school does it.
To me, it's all just self-justiification, and shows an inability on the part of many Blue fans to be honest with themselves about what's going on. It's a little bit like an alcoholic saying "I don't have a problem with drinking. I drink. I get drunk. I fall down. No problem . . . what's the big deal?"
The statement of Horton in the last segment rings true to me.  Blow off a session in the weight room, or with Rodriguez, or with Beilein, and see what happens. Blow off a class, and Acho and her gang will cover for you. The priority is on maintaining eligibility, and on sports teams winning. Whatever it takes to achieve this, do it.
However, I don't have a problem with
this. As long as colleges are functioning as an unofficial minor league, the academics will always be an afterthough. Whether it's Greg Oden, or Terry Mills, or Petway, or Gabe Watson, they'll jump through the right hoops to stay eligible, knowing that they're really just honing their skills for the pro leagues. We all know that's what is really happening, and I don't really have a problem with it. They don't care to get a degree, I don't care whether get one either. Just win, baby, and maybe bring home a National Title every ten years or so.
There are, however, two things that bug me.
1) I'm tired of Michigan homers bragging about our academics, and dissing USC, or OSU, or Florida, or FSU, or LSU, or even ND. I can't see that we're significantly different, at least in terms of Athletics and Academics. If we want to really be academic, we need to go the way of the Univ. of Chicago or Harvard or Princeton or even Northwestern. Either academics really matters for all students, or it doesn't. Sure, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that LSU and FSU are several notches below Michigan academically, both for athletes and across the board. But the differences with OSU and USC and ND and UT (Texas) are much smaller. I suspect that one of the reasons OSU gets to Michigan so much is because in many ways, we're so similar. Ok, for academics alone, Michigan is rated higher, but let's face it: both are the flagship state school in two loser rustbelt industrial states.
2) It bugs me that athletes who do have a brain are pushed away from actually getting a worthwhile degree. I used to like seeing that there were engineering students and pre-med and pre-law students among those on the football team. Those days seem to be over. Let's use Harbaugh as an example. Could he have studied history and succeeded? I believe so. Would he have been able to devote as much time to athletics? Undoubtedly not. But so what. I feel like saying to athletes interested in academics, go to Stanford. Go to Northwestern. Go to Princeton or Harvard. Don't come to Michigan, because you'll be shielded from the real student body, and from real profs, and real academic standards. You'll be pushed into 3 or 4 joke classes a term with joke grades so you can daydream and play video games on your laptop during those classes you attend, and focus on the REAL reason you're here: win baby, just win.
Nothing's gonna change, so why don't you just go back to covering sports. That's what most of us reader geeks are really interested in anyway.
Steve in the Chicago area
I don't know whether to be angry at Steve for obviously not reading anything I've written about this or happy that he's making virtually the same arguments. As for the bullets:
There's no problem with academics in the Athletic Department. The AA News turned up a few things that are obvious abuses and a systematic acknowledgment of a thing called "reality". There are some small problems and one action item: independent study by athletes should be severely curtailed.
Carty is a blowhard. I'm not sure why the entire Michigan internet is so pissed at Carty specifically when there are four names on all the stories and this is a big seven-month investigative push by the Ann Arbor News in general. He's part of it; I blame I Are Serious Editor more than Carty.
And, yeah, there's some blame. For seven months of investigation the Ann Arbor News had better get some mileage out of it, so they put their headlines in WAR-sized caps and spend an entire week when they had about a single story's worth of actual news. They also credulously accept assertions from other schools that they're shocked, shocked Michigan would do something like this. They misleadingly headline a piece "General studies uncommon at Michigan's 'peer' universities" in an article with a chart of majors that shows severe clustering at half the Big Ten schools and Notre Dame. Majors named "general studies" are indeed uncommon; majors with the same effect are universal. They refused to interview Mary Sue Coleman because she wanted to do it over email. They finish the article on the Ross Academic Center with a damning quote from a women's basketball player... who was at the U for one year six years ago.
How many positive quotes did they leave out? How can we be sure of the general tone of their conversations with former athletes? Why choose to, at every turn, emphasize detractors and the disgruntled? I'm about the worst judge available for this, but I'm not impressed by the standard of journalism in these pieces. There is a small story here spun out into a BIG STORY.
Harbaugh doesn't know what he's talking about and is a traitor to boot. Harbaugh does know what he's talking about but suggested Stanford doesn't do similar things (wrong) and sold out the university that got him into the NFL for some notoriety and a bit of a recruiting boost. So... yeah.
Every big time school does it. See above.
As to the things that bother: I am dead with you on #1. I do think that maybe Michigan is more concerned than many schools about actually having their kids go to their easy classes and do their easy assignments based solely on anecdotal evidence, but it's a matter of degree.
On #2: I sincerely doubt Harbaugh actually gave a crap about history; I think maybe he had a vague idea he'd be a history major because he liked history in high school and was quickly disabused of that notion when he got to Michigan. And Northwestern and Stanford shield their football players like mother hens, man.
As to the larger issue: when I got to Michigan I had a lot of AP credits* and thus could take some upper-level courses as a freshman. I visited my academic advisor with a plan to take something like 17 credits, including a 300-level biochem course. The advisor told me I was biting off more than I could chew and I should scale back. I scoffed, and blew through my first semester without problems, resolving that the advisor was a douchebag and not returning. My second semester I signed up for History of Africa after 1850, a 400-level CAAS class that fulfilled the U's race & ethnicity requirement. There was a guy in it who looked like he owned every Arrested Development bootleg out there; everyone in the class seemed about 35 and was angry. The first grade was halfway into the semester; I argued that Heart of Darkness was not a racist book no matter what Chinua Achebe said, provided some shiny happy people handholding towards the end, and got a C-. I'm pretty sure was the first C I'd seen on anything ever. I freaked.
Three days later I was the proud recipient of a W (for "withdrawn") on my transcript; the next semester I enrolled in Anthro 101, a class with multiple-choice scantron finals.
Moral: shielding is probably a good thing in most cases. And where it's not, the magic of Zoltan (a B-school enrollee) happens.
That said, you're right. It's bothersome that for 90% of football players a challenging major is completely unrealistic. I would like to see the NCAA institute a policy change that allows players one or two years of scholarship after their eligibility expires so guys like Alex Mitchell and Jeremy Ciulla can get whatever degree their academic ability allows. I don't see how it's realistic for Michigan to fix it on their own.
*(note to high schoolers planning on attending Michigan: take every AP class you can get your greasy mitts on, especi
ally physics. Unless something's changed recently, each is worth 4 or 5 credits or so -- physics is a whopping 10! -- and if you have 40-something you register with upperclassmen. Result: nothing you would reasonably want to take is ever full.)
Items of interest sent to me that don't require such a lengthy response:
My general reaction is that the NCAA tends to look for disparities in
how athletes and non-athletes are treated, and that the only hint of
disparity from Carty's article is that athletes were advised to enroll
in one particular professor's independent study section. There's no
evidence that, once enrolled, athletes were treated more favorably in
his section than the rest of the student population. I also don't
understand why it's surprising that advisers for the athletes would
favor enrolling them in one professor's section over another: if
athletes have been successful in his section before, enjoyed it,
and/or were able to enroll in it, why not try to enroll more of them
As for other criticisms levied at this prof: one of my labmates was
retroactively enrolled in an independent study course more than 12
months after the enrollment dates for which it appeared on his
transcript, and retroactively assigned a grade of satisfactory. That
is, he enrolled for it in 2008 but it appeared on his transcript for
2006. This type of thing happens all of the time, especially in
graduate programs. As an undergrad, it's a matter of meeting with
your advisor and getting their signature.
You're just as aware as I am that college is what you make of it.
Just as there are courses that don't require you to show up, do
reading, or even do any work in general other than the occasional easy
paper or exam (e.g. Astronomy 101/102, any American Culture class, any
of the Geology mini-courses) there are plenty of courses on the other
side that require much more than the estimated 4 hours per week *
credit hours (e.g. EECS 470). There's nothing in the Carty article to
suggest that athletes are being treated any differently than the
Another item that addresses the really late independent study add:
I disagree with your first point that adding IS midterm is by default, a scam. All I can relate is a personal experience.
I added IS midterm because I decided to withdraw from another course in which I was significantly struggling. I was accepted to every graduate school of my choice, turned down MIT, and was awarded an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship, which is an extremely competitive award. Academic aptitude and work ethic weren't a problem.
I was failing a math class. I'm not a football player, quite obviously, so there is a distinction: I was overextending myself with physics classes and the most difficult math classes that served no purpose other than challenging myself. There is a big difference between failing rocks for jocks as a natural science requirement, and failing topology, an abstract math course that you take for nothing other than fun.
It was clear after midterms I was going to fail the course despite going to office hours every day and sitting in on another section taught by another instructor. The instructor told me as much. I dropped my most easy class before the drop date to make more time for this course. Rather than suffer a D+ in that class, and witness my grades in others go from the A level to low B's, I dropped the class, took the W, my grades went back to A's in my relevant classes, but because I had previously dropped the earlier class, I needed credits mid-term. I took IS. I didn't take it for 4 credits, it was 2, but I think I added March 1.
Nowhere in the article does it say they received 4 credits. For all we know, it was 1-2. Now I'd agree, every time a football player struggles, the answer isn't "take a W, and let's add an IS so you don't lose eligibility." But if those players only had 1-2 W's on their transcripts during their time at Michigan, it's not fraud. It would be fraud if the number of credits they received was more than the work they performed.
I am disappointed they sent those athletes to Professor Hagen. In my opinion, proper academic advisement would be "withdraw from the class, but we need to add a mini-course or independent study to keep your credits above 12. It is your job to find someone." If those advisers contacted Professor Hagan and said "we have a problem, these kids need to drop a class or they will lose eligibility, so can you take them on?" that is fraudulent. But if it only happened once or twice in their careers, and the work they did meets the standards of the academic department, it's a gray area, one that is unfortunate, but not necessarily wrong.
I personally know several other students who withdrew from classes and added IS mid-term -- them all in graduate school at top 10 institutions in their fields -- and the right decision in that situation is to withdraw. Then, your advisers need to ensure that the next semester, you are taking a balanced course load, are in the correct classes, and you have the resources so it doesn't happen again. But a one time midterm W and adding credits with IS does not equal fraud. It happens to common students too. Obviously, the reasons behind a student struggling will vary, and there is logarithmic separation between the difficulties of some classes. But with 100 people on the football roster, it doesn't strike me as odd for 1-2 to drop a class midterm and add an IS or mini-course last minute to boost their credits. I honestly feel they are receiving proper advisement in that situation as long as the work they do for their IS is commiserate with the professors (and thereby departments) expectations.
If those players were advised to do that so they'd maintain eligibility, is that any different than me deciding to have a W on my transcript and 3 A's rather than a D+ and 3 B's one semester because I wanted to go to graduate school?
Topology for fun! Jesus! John Blum frightens me.
And he is right, the AA news does not reveal the credits received by Riley and Watson. If it's two, then the late IS add might be reasonable. (Did they provide this information? No. Did they have it? Yes. Is there any reason to omit the number of credit hours? No. Does this bring the integrity of the reporting here into further question? Yes.) It is possible that nothing untoward happened here.
But this is a slope more slippery than Sam McGuffie. I know the school makes all sorts of allowances for kids who find themselves in academic trouble whether it's for not being able to spell "cat" or signing up for topology on a whim. Here, however, the university has a powerful incentive other than being nice to juggle schedules and the end result is very beneficial to the U. These situations are begging to be abused. This is not 'Nam, there are rules, and it looks very much like Michigan skirted them so a couple players would not be ineligible for the bowl game when they probably should have been. Michigan should have bit the bullet, put them in the Hagen class the following semester, and dealt with the consequences.
Caveat: I don't have the full story here and am going by appearances in a story designed to provide the appearance of wrongdoing. I acknowledge this could be a legitimate occurrence; Occam's razor suggests otherwise.
Greg Oden? Is that you? Tight end recruit Kevin Koger's Toledo Whitmer team made a run in the Ohio State playoffs but lost a few days ago. Condolences to Koger and all that but the real reason I mention it:
That is one superior old man beard going on right there. I so want him to keep it forever. Bigger version at the Blade's website.
Are these guys starfish or something? Mike Spath reports that Scooter Vaughn is a go this weekend and Matt Rust is going to try to skate today and might be available. Max Pacioretty is out after receiving a stupid game DQ for fighting on Saturday.
However, Operation No Stinking Badgers suffered a blow: Notre Dame's Eric Condra is out for the year. Condra is ND's top scorer by a wide margin with 38 points. Notre Dame has to get a split at the Joe to get in the tourney and keep Wisconsin out. Yost Built has been fiddling with YATC and says thusly:
Assuming Michigan and Miami win their semifinal games, the CCHA Consolation Game could be pretty huge for Michigan. If Notre Dame wins the third place game, Wisconsin is out and our game with Miami doesn't seem to matter in terms of the seeding. If Northern Michigan wins, we could fall to the #3 overall seed by losing to Miami and Wisconsin very possibly makes it in (depending on the ECAC and Hockey East results).
Youth movement. Michigan is #1; it is also the youngest team in the CCHA. A helpful UNO fan compiled a list:
Michigan State 21.33
Notre Dame 21.55
Ohio State 21.58
Northern Michigan 21.82
Lake Superior State 21.91
Ferris State 21.97
Western Michigan 22.05
Bowling Green 22.13
Alaska - Fairbanks 22.17
Second- and third-tier college hockey programs tend to recruit 20 and 21-year-old freshmen, something Michigan rarely does (Langlais was the only player more than a year out of high school in this large freshman class), but that's still remarkable: Michigan is almost a full year younger than any team in the conference. Even though the two seniors they'll lose are both amongst the best players in the country, Michigan could be even better next year. Hopefully Pacioretty -- on fire the past couple months -- and Mitera return.
Pryor. ... is deciding within the week and is...
''...down to two schools,'' Pryor said. ''I can't tell you which two.''
But, yeah, one is probably not Penn State:
Pryor didn't want to get into too many specifics when talking about Penn State. He mentioned that he looks at the environment as ''country'' and that he felt comfortable with his knowledge of the program through his numerous unofficial visits over the years.
I haven't seen anyone say anything other than Pryor to OSU; usually these words are accompanied by other words claiming that anyone else would "shock," "cause widespread devastation," or "bring about seven plagues, the likes of which have been heretofore unseen by man."
So, yeah, don't get your hopes up.
Eeee, oooo, eeee. Excellent interview in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette with Steve Slaton, Darius Reynaud, and other players departing from West Virginia. Eeee Barwis:
FINDER: Who all went to Michigan to work with former West Virginia strength and conditioning coach Mike Barwis?
RIVERS: Antonio [Lewis] and I went up there for about a month. Last week, Owen [Schmitt] and Ryan Mundy got there. They got a nice setup. Spent a lot of money.
SLATON: I'm going up there. I don't know when. See what my schedule is, who else calls.
Not to pile on Gittleson too hard, but this is night and day from Michigan's experience. At Michigan, as soon as you sign with an agent and get some money you head for one of those specialized NFL prep workout camps in Florida or whatever. These guys are following Barwis wherever he goes. Eeee.
This quote got a lot of play:
FINDER: Did the coaches up at Michigan talk to you guys about what was happening back at West Virginia, with all the fan reaction?
RIVERS: They really don't care. They're up there. [After selling their Morgantown houses and moving their families], they're not trying to get their [butts] shot at here in West Virginia.
His players don't harbor any animosity:
FINDER: Were you surprised by the fans' reaction over Coach [Rich] Rodriguez leaving and the buyout, lawsuit and everything?
REYNAUD: It did surprise me a little bit, but it's a business, man.
SLATON: You figured it would happen. But I think they should be happy for him. He's from West Virginia and he can make his mark at Michigan better and maybe one day be in the coaching Hall of Fame. I'm happy for him 'cause he gave me a chance to play running back when a lot of teams wouldn't have given me the chance.
REYNAUD: Did I have any anger about Coach Rod [leaving]? I never did. [The fans] took it the worst. After that victory in the bowl game, who cares?
And, of course, you stay classy, Morgantown:
FINDER: If you can change anything over the past three and a half months, what would it be? The outcome of the Pitt game? Coach Rod leaving?.Something else? . . .
REYNAUD: If Coach Rod had left for Michigan before that game, it still would be that game [they'd want to change].
RIVERS: I was right behind him coming into the locker room after that game. It was horrible ..., especially when he turned this thing around. '[Screw] you, Rodriguez.' 'Thanks a lot, Rod.'
REYNAUD: (chuckling) Yeah, I heard that: 'Thanks a lot, Rod.' ":
SLATON: Look what he brought to the program, too.
Who would want to leave that?
What Touchdown Jesus? Dana Jacobsen interviews Rich Rodriguez. I know you're waiting for the f-bombs, but sorry:
Etc.: More Eeee, Barwi
s from ESPN, Zack Novak article from the Tribune, Darryl Stonum, rumored to be the recipient of the #1 jersey, is wearing #22 at spring practice, the Hoover Street rag has hilarious, sad numbers comparing hockey and basketball.
The list. Baylor, Clemson, and Kansas State have all made the basketball tournament. What relevance does this have for Michigan basketball fans? Each of those teams was sporting a tourney drought of equal or greater length than Michigan, which cuts down The List. What is The List? An assemblage of ever-dwindling big conference (BE, P10, B10, SEC, ACC) teams with tourney droughts comparable to Michigan's. The new edition:
Florida State: 1998
South Florida: 1992
Oregon State: 1990
Six of 73.
Hockey. Last weekend couldn't have gone any better from the Michigan perspective. Most importantly, Michigan swept UNO. Bonuses from around the country:
- UND won its series against Tech but took three games to do it, dropping them from the #1 spot in the PWR and staking Michigan to a lead of what looks like a full game in the RPI.
- Wisconsin got swept and Clarkson lost its first round series, guaranteeing that a third autobid outside the top 16 spots gets in. Upshot: the Badgers are now the first team out of the tournament.
- State lost to Northern, removing the one team in the CCHA Michigan had a losing record against and providing Michigan an easier opponent for their game Friday.
- Notre Dame rose from the dead and is now in the tourney. (This last one is not so much a positive for Michigan, but it's good for the CCHA and everyone's sense of cosmic justice.)
Air Force and Niagara won their conference tourneys and autobids.
I haven't had time to check the nitty-gritty of the PWR, but some weird stuff went on. Miami leapt up to the #2 overall seed and Colorado College dropped to #4 despite CC's sweep of Alaska-Anchorage; I think this is because Michigan Tech's win against NoDak propelled them into the top 25 of the RPI, which makes them a TUC and brings CC's 0-1-1 record against them into play. Ferris also dropped from TUC status, removing their sweep of Miami from Super Special Consideration. It's all very complicated.
This week's completely useless bracket construction:
16. Air Force
9. Michigan State
7. Boston College
14. Minnesota State
13. ECAC Autobid
5. North Dakota
12. Notre Dame
(as always, this is as sturdy as a lean-to in a hurricane and was a waste of my time.)
The committee is not compelled to break first round all-WCHA matchups since they have six teams in the tourney, but they could swap Minnesota and Clarkson if they wanted and maybe the ECAC autobid with Minnesota State. Neither would hurt bracket integrity or attendance much, so I've made the switches above.
Could State please GTF out of our regional? No, probably not, since they're done for the year.
So, about this weekend. Since none of the chasers have imploded, Michigan hasn't locked up much. Michigan currently wins all comparisons but can lose out to Miami, CC, and North Dakota. Scenarios:
- Win the CCHA. The only team that could pass Michigan would be a WCHA-winning CC. Michigan would get a small conference autobid in Wisconsin-free Madison, which is excellent.
- Get swept. Much depends on the outcome of the other two games, but I think M loses at least two more comparisons and falls behind either North Dakota or Miami, which would allow one of those teams to head to Madison. Michigan would get shipped East as the #4 or #5 seed and probably have to deal with a high quality. Second round opponent. Bad news.
- Split. Almost as bad, I think. Miami would pass us if they won the league and one of the two WCHA teams would also; probably both. Would be a cluster of teams tied atop the standings (UNH complicates everything) and Michigan could go anywhere.
It's delightfully simple and mmmm caketastic if they win the CCHA; if not Michigan could get a relatively nasty draw.
Michigan plays Northern at 4:30 Friday; Miami and Notre Dame is the other semifinal.
Update: readers email to note that the M gametime has been changed to 8:05; it is so. Also, You Are The Committee is up at CHN if you feel like fiddling around with the the last weekend's results. I'm trying to figure out if Wisconsin can still get in... unfortunately the answer appears to be yes if all top seeds hold and ND loses two at the Joe. We really want ND to win at least one; the nice thing is that if we end up facing them they've already downed Miami and will be a tourney lock.