this week in unintentionally grim-sounding recruiting headlines
Rumors kicking. Anyone who's read the comments or any Michigan message board in the past couple days knows there's a rumor about one or two more Michigan OL packing it in floating out there. Do I have any information on this? No, not really. (Would I like some? Yes, please, if you've got it.)
One thing I can offer: a friend of mine was at the open portion of Michigan's first spring practice and talked to Justin Boren, one of the players made available to the media. The friend relayed Boren's impression the line would probably be Ortmann-Boren-Molk-?-Schilling from left to right. And then he said this:
JB said that Mitchell and Ciulla (guys he seemed to really like) had just run out of energy for football. My impression was---though he didn't express this in any specific way--- was that he was unhappy with the coaching changes but felt he really had limited choices. But this was just my sense. Nothing express.
Please don't take this too seriously, but since one of the names being kicked around by random speculators is Boren, I'm officially spooked. Would it make sense to transfer away from two assured years as a starter? Maybe not, but unlike every other Michigan offensive lineman since the dawn of time, Boren's transfer year could be a redshirt season and he would have two to play after.
Meanwhile, everyone's dying. Spring practice hates Carlos Brown. He's out with a broken finger. Potential starting center David Molk was also held out of some practices with a potential case of mono.
Word. Adam Wodon has more on the robotic rut the hockey tournament committee has gotten themselves into. Wodon has more insight into this than any other person person with an inclination to write on the subject and wields his long experience effectively:
It's only in the last five, six years or so that the committee actually sees the "Pairwise Standings," so to speak â€” i.e. the simple listing of teams, in order, of most "Comparison Wins." This was, by and large, a creation of the online community. Prior to this, the committee only ever saw a large printout of all the different individual comparisons. If you are unfamiliar with these individual comparisons, you can see them by going to the "grid" from our Pairwise page, and click on the links.
From the discussions with committee members over the years, it was clear that the committee looked at this pile of individual comparisons, and quickly determined a line in the sand where certain teams clearly deserved to be in. But then it came down to a "bubble" that involved an arbitrary amount of teams, and the committee then compared the teams within that bubble to each other, using the head-to-head comparisons.
Wodon cites the 2003 tournament as a tipping point when the committee went from the PWR as a useful and frequently adhered-to diagnostic tool to the Holy Freakin' Gospel; before that people got switched around frequently to create a bracket that made sense.
Ort. Via Michigan Hockey Net, the game after the St. Cloud game:
Man Ham on the rise. Er.
If you had a Wolverine -- like, a real live snarling animal version -- what would you call it? Probably not "Biff," right? "Biff the Wolverine".... no. Just no.
Well, apparently yes just yes:
Captain Bob Brown is straining to control the vicious beast that will tear the throat out of any Gopher player that comes within 500 yards of him. He is Noted for his Ferocity and Gameness in Battle. He is known by a dark and fey moniker the children of the prefecture are warned not to say aloud. He strikes fear into the heart of the mightiest axeman. He is Biff. Biff, the Wolverine.
We did a rundown of Niagara's games against Big Three And A Half foes earlier today; here's a similar treatment for Michigan's potential second-round opponents. These are common opponents only.
St Cloud's games of interest:
|Michigan played Tech in the GLI final, winning 1-0 in overtime. St. Cloud obviously did better than that; one mitigating factor was the absence of four Michigan players due to WJC commitments.|
|Wisconsin (Playoffs)||W||4-3 (ot)|
|A 3-3 overall record against meh Wisconsin, who Michigan beat 3-2 in the Showcase in a game that wasn't really that close. (Michigan led 3-0 until there were under three minutes left, at which point they gave up a couple sloppy goals.) Four of those games were at home. Total goals: SCSU 16, Wisconsin 14.|
|This was a sparsely attended holiday tourney game at Value City Arena in Columbus, so the teams may not have been full strength due to WJC commitments. St. Cloud played well, outshooting Miami, but didn't get an even strength goal.|
|SCSU faced Minnesota just as they were reaching the breaking point with headcase goalie Jeff Frazee. Kangas played the first game, making 32 saves on 35 shots. Frazee got one period in the Saturday game that ended up a tie, exiting after giving up one goal on six shots. Kangas played the rest of the game. So these results aren't bad. Nor are they particularly good, since Minnesota is a pretty mediocre team this year.|
|In one of the weirdest games I've ever seen, Michigan got outshot 50 to 21 by the Friars and won 6-0. Two periods into the game Michigan had five goals on 14 shots. Providence did something similar against Clarkson, outshooting them 28-20 and failing to score. Woo Providence.|
|Ugly split against one of the worst teams in the CCHA is encouraging, even if Michigan had two uninspired wins of their own versus the Lakers.|
That's it as far as common opponents go. There is another series worth noting: in early February Clarkson traveled to CC and got smoked 5-2 and 6-1. Many factors -- road game, altitude, Olympic ice -- that won't be relevant worked against them then; hopefully that's a sign of systemic weakness against fast teams and not just "arrrgh I can't breathe and why is this rink so damn big"*.
If you're going to Albany and want tickets from the Michigan ticket department, you'll have to call in the next three hours:
The Michigan Athletics Ticket Office will have tickets for the East Regional available today only from 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. All-session tickets are $82, and there is a four-ticket limit per person. Purchases can be made in person at the ticket office or over the phone by calling (734) 764-0247. Tickets are also available through the Times Union Center (800-30-EVENT) or through TicketMaster (www.ticketmaster.com). Tickets can be picked up at the Times Union Center in Albany.
Update: Not ticketmaster, apparently. Direct link to ticket purchase here.
You blew it up, didn't you. The strange combination of events that would get Wisconsin into the tournament all transpired, and the Badgers actually bubbled their way up to a #3 seed. This left Michigan in an uncomfortable position. In the interregnum between the games finishing up and the bracket announcement, most prognosticators provided this:
16. Air Force
8. St. Cloud
Which is... bad? Good? Michigan would have the closest regional, be playing the lowest seed in the tournament and the hostile-venue factor is offset by the fact that 1) it got State -- the only team in the country with a winning record against Michigan -- the hell away from M and 2) Wisconsin is a thoroughly mediocre team that's below .500 for a reason. Saturday night I was wondering if I could call it a screwjob or not. I think I settled on "not."
It's all moot anyway, since the committee decided to protect Michigan like a downy soft child:
8. St. Cloud
Michigan State and Clarkson were tied in the PWR, so the committee thought it was okay to switch them and maybe get upwards of 60 people at the regional. So, the three other teams Michigan has to deal with are:
- The CHA autobid team
- The fifth-place WCHA team, one that's never won an NCAA tourney game, and
- the ECAC champ.
Note that none of these teams are #$&*ing North Dakota. It's a really good draw.
Meanwhile, karma has decided it's time to collect on Michigan State's absurdly easy path to the Frozen Four last year. Despite being the #9 team in PWR and thus theoretically entitled to a winnable game against St. Cloud, State has to play the WCHA regular season champ at their rink, which happens to be at altitude. If they somehow beat CC (and since Matt "I think the 1995 New Jersey Devils are the pinnacle of hockey" Shegos isn't reffing, that's not likely) they get, in all probability, #*$@ing North Dakota. They're dead meat.
Tweak. So why is Wisconsin in? Because Minnesota State -- the WCHA team that finished ahead of UW in the regular season standings, has a better RPI than UW, and beat UW head-to-head -- lost comparisons with Princeton and Northern Michigan. MSU lost the Princeton comparison despite beating the Tigers head to head because they lost RPI by about a quarter-game and COP because they were 1-2 in two games against UNO and one against Yale. They lost the Northern comparison because their TUC record was about an eighth of a game worse than NMU's despite having a sizable RPI advantage.
Wisconsin was fortunate to not have these near-random occurrences befall them and will thus get to participate in the NCAA tournament over a team a half-dozen different metrics (winning percentage, conference standings, RPI, head-to-head, KRACH, and the PWR itself, which thunderously awards the WI-Mankato comparison to Mankato) declare is superior.
The result will be another round of BCS-esque tweaks that fight last year's war and lead to some other team suffering a similar fate, instead of a wholesale re-evaluation of the way the system works that injects a #$&*ing
North Dakota Common Sense component into the system.
I don't mind the PWR as a public tool that significantly guides the committee's hand. If it is usually adhered to it provides a powerful check on the infamous "smoke filled rooms" that are commonly trotted forth as the nightmarish alternative to the current system. But it shouldn't override the aforementioned common sense when a clearly (if slightly) more accomplished team is sabotaged by stupid math.
Niagara. Is the first-round opponent, and though they're the CHA autobid and therefore generally considered dead meat, this is not going to be a walkover. Niagara's RPI is .5107, nearly identical to that of a Northern Michigan team that gave Michigan fits the second half of the season. Their non-Atlantic-Hockey nonconference schedule:
You know BG as a middling CCHA team and WMU as ridiculously awful at hockey. Merrimack is the WMU of Hockey East. Cornell is a slightly above average ECAC team; Quinnipac is a .500 ECAC team; St. Lawrence is a bad ECAC team.
Taken together, the results are about what you would see from a middle of the pack CCHA team. Niagara won't be a challenge on the level of Miami or Michigan State or any of the other teams that have shown the ability to really skate with Michigan, but Michigan can lose to Ferris or tie Northern or cough one up against Ohio State -- this is a real opponent.
Further caution in four bullets:
- Niagara is a full-scholarship program with a dedicated hockey program. In their fourth year as a program they got an NCAA bid as an independent and beat 3-seed UNH in the opening round.*
- That year they played Michigan, beating them once and suffering an OT loss with two seconds left.
- The only time Michigan has run across an AH/CHA autobid in the tourney, Mercyhurst had a 3-2 third-period lead before Michigan finally put a couple goals past their red-hot goalie and won 4-3.
- Holy Cross.
Not to be a downer; I just want to clarify that this is not the equivalent of a 1 versus a 16 in the basketball tourney. It's more like a 2-15 or a 3-14, where upsets aren't decidedly uncommon but not unheard of.
Hypothetical second-round opponents. Those unfamiliar with college hockey might look at the second-round matchup, which features conference champ and 21-12-4 Clarkson as the lower seed against fifth-place and 19-15-5 St. Cloud State, and go "huh"?
Well, unlike college football, college hockey has a clear conference pecking order with the WCHA on top, HE and the CCHA fighting it out for second -- this year it's advantage CCHA -- and the ECAC existing as a clear fourth, halfway between the power conferences and Atlantic Hockey. The last ECAC national champion was RPI in 1985. The last time an ECAC team reached the final was Colgate in 1990. Since 2000 only two ECAC teams have reached the Frozen Four. And so on. With all due respect to the league, the vagaries of the PWR are such that drawing an ECAC team is almost always the best possible scenario given your seeding.
Meanwhile, Michigan and St. Cloud have a brief, awesome history. Yost Ice Arena hosted back-to-back regionals in 2002 and 2003; in 2002 Michigan drew St. Cloud in the first round. The teams were not strangers. The year before Michigan had beaten St. Cloud in Grand Rapids. In the process, Michigan's fanbase irritated one of the Huskies' skating cheerleaders, -- no, like, seriously, this is apparently a common occupation for annoying girls in Minnesota -- causing her to offer this quote to the St. Cloud Times:
"The University of Michigan fans are like combining (North Dakota) Sioux fans and Minnesota Gophers fans," said McGannon, a cheerleader for the Huskies. "They're horrible people. It's like they've never seen hockey cheerleaders.
"Their band was o
bnoxious, horrible, not very welcoming at all. Now it's going to be on their home ice and they'll be worse."
The Daily ellipsed out everything between "Michigan" and "they're horrible people," and it was on. St. Cloud brought their skating cheerleaders and skating mascot. The student section brought dollar bills. Anyone who was there for the Friday UNO game, when one... uh... prominent UNO supporter's low-cut tan top was a focal point of misogyny and hilarity has experienced about 10% of the "Molly" barrage.
So we've got this: a home regionals game at Yost where everyone is already bonkers. We've added in skating cheerleaders, one of whom has specifically called out the Michigan fans. Now everyone is mocking and holding dollar bills up and chanting and a skating mascot is added to the equation. A skating mascot who, during Michigan's introductions, spends the time skating across the red line and pointing threateningly at various Michigan players. Planet-sized defenseman Mike Komsiarek (then the #6 pick in the draft, now the NHL's toughest player and good "friend" of Elisha Cuthbert) slashes the stick out of the mascot's hands. Cheers all around. The national anthem manages to get itself played without incident. It's about time for a game, yesno?
Issue: at this point both locker rooms at Yost are on the same side of the ice. To exit the arena, the skating cheerleaders and mascot have to pass through the hockey team, currently doing the skate-around thing they do before gathering around the goal to say some sort of team-building thing like "DOMINATE" or "VICTORY" or "PAPAYAS". The cheerleaders exit safely, but the mascot...
I don't know. Maybe he's dating Molly. Maybe the slash was just too much for the already-fragile dignity of a guy in a furry costume. Maybe he was driven mad by the noise and the crowd and thought "what the hell, I'm in a mask." His thought processes will forever remain mysterious. The result? Not so much.
...the mascot gets behind the Michigan goal, then trips whoever happened to be skating by. It wasn't Komisarek. Mistake. The entire team leaps into action, grabbing him and throwing him to the ground just outside the rink. Various members of the team leap onto him, throwing padded punches at a fuzzy costume. The crowd erupts. It is, without question, the best lead-in to a hockey game that has ever occurred anywhere. Michigan wins, 5-3, and the next night Ortmeyer passes to Nystrom who passes back to Ortmeyer and Michigan beats #1 seed Denver and it's on to the Frozen Four.
So we've either got an ECAC team or St. Cloud in the second round. w00t.
Sparty, no! One brief slice of life from the Joe this weekend: after the first period on Friday a friend and I move down into the tony seats in the Miami section. A middle-aged guy in a Michigan State hat sits a row in front of us and a bit to our right. As the teams come out for the second period we are privileged to overhear this conversation:
Sparty: GOOOOOOOOOO HUSKIES!
Companion: I, uh... I don't think they're the Huskies.
[Sparty checks the program.]
Sparty: GOOOOOOOOOO WILDCATS!
The guy did appear to clap with genuine enthusiasm when Red Berenson was announced as CCHA coach of the year, so he wasn't all bad. Anyway, if Michigan gets to play St. Cloud in the second round and there's a random State fan screaming "GOOOOOO WILDCATS," that's probably the dude.
Hello! A brief note for hockey fans on what yesterday's results (which were AWESOME save for
that Miami goal with 3 seconds left and their subsequent OT win):
- UND, UNH, and CC lost, which means Michigan can't be worse than the #2 overall seed no matter tonight's result. All my previous dire warnings about falling to #4 or #5 in scenarios where, like, the other three top teams didn't biff it in their playoffs.
- If ND wins or ties tonight, Michigan will be the top seed even with a loss. But...
- If ND wins or loses tonight they're in the tournament even if Vermont snatches a bid by beating BC. (A loss keeps Northern a TUC and helps out ND's TUC record enough to keep them ahead of Wisconsin.) However, in certain scenarios a tie knocks them out. If ND pulls its goalie in overtime tonight, that's why.
- Most setups have St. Cloud the #8 seed, but it looks split about 50-50 on whether Clarkson (yay!) or Michigan State (boo!) are the #9. I think the key combo for Clarkson is Vermont and Northern winning.
- Even with Notre Dame guaranteeing themselves a bid, Wisconsin can still get in. They need Princeton to beat Harvard in the ECAC final, BC to beat Vermont in the HE final, and Northern to beat or tie ND. (ND still gets in if they lose; Minnesota State gets the shaft there.)
Your rooting interests:
Harvard over Princeton.
Vermont over BC.
if (Vermont over BC && Harvard over Princeton)
Northern Michigan over Notre Dame
Notre Dame over Northern Michigan
Below is the board in all its yellow smiley guy glory. Right now it's really rough. The sites have preliminary top 250 and 300 lists out but at this point they can be wildly inaccurate and should be taken lightly, so a lot of the stars on the list are real shaky. Also, there's a ton of yellows, a few greens, and a few reds, and not many articles yet. I'm working on filling in the gaps, but right now the board probably isn't that useful to the generic observer. Let me fill in the gaps as best I can, starting with the obvious...
Arrrrgh NO QBS AAAARGH. This year's top ranked dual threat QB is Russell Shepard. Unfortunately, he turned out to be the anti-Pryor, committing to LSU a few weeks ago. Shepard had a tendency to think that whoever he had just talked to or wherever he had just visited was the bee's knees, so there's a hope out there he might be one of those guys who has a Shocking Decommit later in the year. Doubtful, given the LSU depth chart (almost as questionable as Michigan's with Perrilloux bound and determined to screw himself up) and Les Miles' status as God of Louisiana For Now. Another high profile guy, Tajh Boyd, went off the board to West Virginia.
Who's left? Lots of kids, most prominently CA QB Tate Forcier and VA QB Kevin Newsome. Both are top-100 types who have spoken favorably about Michigan. Tate, of course, is Jason's little brother and is supposed to be the best of the flingin' Forcier clan (the middle brother is entering his freshman year at UCLA). Newsome showed very well at the Army All-American game. Both maintain they're open to anyone at this point. Forcier seems really interested in Penn State as well, which means 1) distance is not a factor and 2) wooo recruiting against Jay Paterno. Newsome is reportedly looking at VT hard.
Those are the two top targets at this point, with more emerging down the line.
Aaaaaarggh NO DES ARRRRRGH. Yeah. Well... I got nothing for you. There doesn't appear to be a Michigan caliber DE in state this year, at least not yet, and the only guys who have been popping up on the recruiting sites are from unlikely locations like South Carolina, Mississippi, and Florida. It's too early to be freaking out, but the numbers are uncomfortable here.
Yeah, what is the deal with that? All the Mississippi stuff? If you didn't notice, there's a huge amount of "MS" in the "state" column relative to the first couple years of the board's existence, when Mississippi representation consisted of one kid who went to Michigan's camp and said he liked it a lot, then didn't get recruited by M. This year there are something like a dozen kids who have mentioned Michigan and a half-dozen sporting offers. WTF?
Michigan brought in former USM DC Jay Hopson to be the linebackers coach, and Rodriguez has apparently directed him to recruit the hell out of everyone in that state. It's an interesting gambit. Michigan's long made a habit of picking off random top prospects from states without an instate power (Adam Patterson from SC, Zirbel, Logan, and McKinney all in one year from KY, this year's New Jersey expedition, frequent forays into Indiana, the Gallimore/Campbell recruitments from Missouri), which describes Mississippi to a T. Theoretically, Mississippi is a free-for-all full of top prospects -- IIRC, the state has the best per-capita production of NFL players in the country -- ripe for the picking.
In practice, maybe not so much:
- The place has a weird hold on its inhabitants. The last time Michigan went after a Mississippi player, David Pegues, he chose obvious misery at Mississippi State over Michigan and a bunch of other schools. Five-star wide receiver DeAndre Brown just decided to head to Southern Miss instead of... well, anywhere he wanted.
- It's not like the SEC doesn't know about it. The high profile guys Michigan is going after have already been offered by LSU, Alabama, Georgia, and the like.
- As soon as Hopson and company left USM, the Golden Eagles reeled in their best recruiting class ever.
- The Mississippi school system is widely regarded to be Southeast Asian in its modernity, efficacy, and willingness to proclaim horrible gelatinous animal bits food. Though we've conclusively established this week that Michigan football players are not taking EECS 543 with Satinder Singh (who spent a solid hour scribbling down equations and proofs, then looked up at a classroom full of bewildered Michigan grad students, sighed, realized this wasn't MIT, and spent a month going over stuff so remedial to him we must have seemed like an offensive tackle trying to spell "cat"), since kids from non-third-world school systems are having difficulty keeping up with the coursework required of them, the chances a Mississippi kid flames out seem unacceptably high.
So, yeah, I'm a little skeptical of Michigan's new Southern strategy. Rodriguez's impressive last second haul in Florida mitigates that somewhat; I still think Michigan's signing itself up for leftovers most of the time.
Instate? Argh? Michigan State's strong start was discussed earlier. The executive summary: good job by MSU to sell these guys on State, but probably a short-term thing that will disappear once Rodriguez gets settled. Michigan will keep recruiting the ones they're interested in, especially after Dantonio's relentless assault on Michigan commits last year, and may swing one or two.
The good news is there are still a ton of Michigan targets:
- DT Will Campbell, the #1 player in the state and a Michigan commit.
- OLs Reid Fragel and Zach Mattias. No offers yet but seem likely to get them eventually; there may also be another Michigan-caliber guy or two somewhere in the class.
- Fast little buggers Teric Jones, Cameron Gordon, James Jackson, and Hersey Jackson. There's a frickin' avalanche of spread-O talent in the state this year. Michigan is evaluating all of it; expect these guys to camp and viciously battle each other for offers.
Why is it so slow? Michigan has only one commit and it's late March, which isn't that unusual historically -- maybe one or two guys short -- but in the ever-accelerating world of recruiting, it's a little uncomfortable to see a bunch of guys go off the board without filling any spots. Like the instate thing, this is likely a temporary, transition-caused issue. When Rodriguez came in he had to scramble to fill out a 25-man class at a new school; usually by that time Michigan is almost done with its class and can start focusing heavily on juniors. That luxury was not extended this year and Michigan is getting their offers out there later than many schools. I expect things will pick up. The initial returns on the new staff's recruiting abilities were excellent.