Rating: 4 of 5.
|Vincent Smith||So.||John McColgan||So.*|
|Mike Shaw||Jr.||Anonymous Walk-on||----|
…is probably Vincent Smith, who seems completely healthy despite tearing his ACL in the Ohio State game in November. During the fall scrimmage he was the guy who started out with the #1 offensive line and Denard Robinson, and in a derby this confused that's as good of an indication as any that he's the man with a slight edge.
We also have the tail end of last year as corroboration. When Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor came down with their entirely predictable injury extravaganzas, it was Smith, not Shaw or Cox, who got the bulk of the work. By the end of the year I was pretty enthused about the little guy. Baby Seal U impressions:
Vincent Smith showed top-end shiftiness and looks like he'll be a solid back. I compared him to Mike Hart on Monday, and think that remains a pretty good comparison. He's also got a little Noel Devine in him; the way he darts through crevices and effortlessly shifts around traffic is reminiscent of the WVU star. He appears to lack Devine's fifth—or eighth—gear, but he's delivered more pop to defenders in one game than Devine has in three years. He'll be something less than a star but he can be very productive.
What can I say? You listen to Fred Jackson long enough and that stuff starts rubbing off. As long as we're on the topic, Jackson on Smith after last year's spring game:
“Small guy, but a big back. He plays big. The way he blocks you and the way he’ll run over you. I’m going to bet that he’s 170 pounds, I don’t know exactly. But I’m going to say he’s 170 pounds and he runs like he’s 200 pounds.”
He was 168, actually, and now he's 180 after a productive summer. And while Jackson's hype above was based on air and mine essentially air, when forced into the lineup against Wisconsin he was productive out of the backfield. What went down on the ground was not his fault:
Yeah, pretty much. The last time I broke out the Vincent Smith praise a commenter said he's not Mike Hart, but he might kind of be Mike Hart:
How many times did Hart do exactly that against Wisconsin to turn a three yard loss into a moderate gain? It seems like a thousand times. He will not grind piles forward like Hart did but I don't recall Hart having this sort of instant acceleration:
I will not be dissuaded on this: Smith performed pretty well in his first two quasi-starts against Wisconsin and Ohio State, scoring receiving touchdowns in each game and grinding out respectable YPC numbers against two of the country's best rushing defenses. He is probably going to start next year and he is going to be good.
Tangent: I think the threat of Smith on these screens and wheels may have had some impact on the line's ability to pass block. When there's a guy out there who can punish you for getting too far upfield, you adjust so that you are not useless when they screen it out.
|should get crushed by the DE|
|smoothly cutting past it|
|juke on the LB.|
|linemen head straight upfield|
|great, Hart-like run|
|like every Hart run against UW|
|manages to fall forward|
|into the endzone|
|extra flare screens|
|too much of a jackrabbit|
Smith's ability out of he backfield was one of the team's major weapons against the Badgers, as he was targeted eight(!) times, six of them as something other than a safety valve. Despite playing sparingly, by the end of the year he'd been targeted more than any other Michigan running back, finishing with 10 catches for 82 yards in the final two games alone, and he left the Ohio State game in the first half with the ACL tear. With Michigan focused on the short passing game, he could get 30, 40, maybe 50 catches this year.
The ACL does remain a worry. Rodriguez proclaimed him 100% as early as the opening of fall camp and he seemed fine in the scrimmage, but the conventional wisdom on knee surgery is that while you can be "back" within 6-9 months, it takes twice as long to be truly comfortable doing all the things you used to do. That and Smith's general lack of size will probably put a cap on his touches this season even if he is a crazy hybrid of Mike Hart and Noel Devine, which seems somewhat optimistic.
If you're going to slot Smith into a role, it's third down back for his ability out of the backfield and his blocking—Smith's first playing time last year came when the starters were too banged up to spend their snaps on obvious pass blocking situations, so he drew into the lineup. Pahokee, man.
Extremely Nominal Backups
Judging on the same standard we judged Smith—prominence in the spring and fall plus random quotes that may not mean much—junior Michael Shaw is going to be the first guy off the bench. He looked lethal when Michigan emptied the bench against Eastern Michigan:
Farther down the road, Michigan looks in excellent shape next year at tailback, where all three backups performed well. Shaw was especially impressive; you could tell that all the stuff about being slowed by a sports hernia was no BS. Guy looked Brown fast. Maybe even faster.
Like Denard Robinson, Shaw has track cred to back that up. As a senior in high school he won the 200 at the Penn Relays and anchored the winning 4x100 and 4x200 relays. He's fast; memories of Shaw getting tracked down from behind by a Minnesota defender as a freshman should come with a reminder that he was suffering through a sports hernia—ew—and saw his own mortality afterwards:
"I broke a long run and got dragged from behind. It was then that I was like, 'I'm really hurting. I've never not been able to run, not been able to explode.' "
|a good, but not explosive, gain.|
|jet for the endzone|
|Shaw into the endzone|
|gashing people on this|
|trying to go inside of Grady|
|forcing a cutback.|
|makes him look stupid|
So he's fast. This is established. His problem has been with everything else so far. Shaw's been fumble- and mistake-prone for the duration of his Michigan career, which allowed Smith to pass him late. He and Smith were the only backs to cough up fumbles in the fall scrimmage. If he hadn't narrowly escaped academic ineligibility it would have kind of been typical.
On the other hand, he was just as effective as Brandon Minor in 2008 and considerably better than Sam McGuffie and Carlos Brown. Whereas Brown tended to fall over if whispered upon, Shaw's balance has caused me to say he "falls over weird" three or four times. During these weird falls he picks up some extra yards. Beyond the obvious, Huyge thinks he's got some plowhorse in him…
“Very quick guy. He’ll run hard. I don’t know how much he weighs, but it doesn’t matter. He’ll still put his head down and try to run through people, too. He’s real shifty. But that’s how our running backs are. He’s shifty and at the same time, he can turn it up and try to run someone over.”
…but that's not something I've seen. If Michigan's going to run inside it seems they've got several better options. Shaw's role: guy who you put in the game in case he runs 80 yards, a la Carlos Brown. He's a first down kind of guy.
Redshirt sophomore Michael Cox is a much heftier runner than Shaw but has most of his speed…and probably even more frustration to him. His physical prowess has been noted far and wide. Here's Fitzgerald Toussaint on Cox:
“He got the ability over everybody. You never know what he is going to hit you with.”
Over everyone at the position?
“Over everyone at the position, Mike Cox.”
Steve Schilling is also positive about his physical attributes:
“He’s fun to watch. He’s a big guy, so he’s powerful, but he’s also one of the quickest we have. So some of these jump cuts he’s able to make and the balance he has is pretty crazy. It’s pretty exciting to see him run. One play that could get stuck in the backfield turns into a 40-yard run for him.”
|damp wet smearin'|
Cox flashed impressive balance in his limited attempts last year, and while they were against the dregs of the schedule Cox's impressive combination of size and speed to go with that balance invites questions about why he hardly saw the field last year and is seemingly third string this year. A hint was on offer during the fall scrimmage:
Mike Cox continued to show that he might be the best athlete amongst the running backs, but on two separate instances he caused Rodriguez to "lose it" by cutting way back against the grain, turning a modest gain into nothing by dancing at the line of scrimmage. On one "there was a gap on the frontside but he cut all the way behind the backside tackle," losing yardage and causing RR to chew him out; on the second "RR just dropped his headset in disgust."
The story was much the same in spring, when Cox alternated impressive days that lent themselves to a thirteen-year-old's idea of the perfect headline with more of that stuff. Cox is the opposite of Mike Hart right now, a guy who has a ton of physical gifts but little idea how to use them. Michigan will have to put him on the field to see if he can use that upside. Whether or not he takes advantage is a mystery. His career could go like Chris Perry—a frustrating waste of obvious physical gifts until the light goes on and then BAM. Or it could just never go on. Cox is the Darryl Stonum of the running back corps; the difference here is that Michigan has a bevy of options instead of just the one potential deep threat. His role is crazy frustrating guy.
We've been hedging on roles so far, but Stephen Hopkins has an obvious one: angry mooseback. He was one of the stories of the spring after enrolling early and breaking out the truck stick on anyone with the temerity to get in front of him. His late-breaking recruiting profile encompasses the spring hype. Blockquote ahoy:
The guy is just a freaking monster and he breaks tackles. Now, I can’t say he can block, or knows the offense or can catch the ball. Plus, he fumbled twice (once he was hit at the handoff, on the other instance it might have been the QB’s issue). But man is he a tough tackle on the belly if he can get (even) a yard of momentum.
Hopkins continued to gather hype to himself in fall after losing 10 pounds and that distinct aura of cheese curds:
Hopkins was the name on everyone's tongue after a day spent running through arm tackles and showing surprising shiftiness. He "hit the holes and was a load to take down." Trusted Observer said he had a hard time picking out Hopkins before the scrimmage, as he looked like PJ Hill in the spring but after losing ten pounds and reshaping maybe a dozen others into muscle "now looks like a tailback" instead of a moonlighting fullback.
Rodriguez hardly needed to say that when Michigan needs two yards that Hopkins will be placed in front of a fullback and directed to run over anyone in his way, but he has, repeatedly. At a minimum Hopkins will be the short yardage back; once he learns the offense sufficiently he'll be great to pair with Smith or Shaw so Michigan can run the option with a dangerous downhill threat.
And finally there's redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint. Toussaint came in with a ton of yards, a reasonable amount of recruiting hype, and an 0.8 McGuffie highlight reel, then promptly broke his shoulder (how does that even happen?) in fall camp last year and sat out the season. This year he's been ruled out of the UConn game with an ankle injury and established local insider FormerWolve says his return for Notre Dame is a "MAYBE," which sounds like a "probably not" to these ears. For his part Toussaint says it's "feeling good" and "working out real well," so hopefully this isn't a Minor type situation where it lingers on and on.
FormerWolve also says he is the "clear #1" here, and while I doubt anything's particularly clear in this five-way shootout, Fred Jackson did call him Mike Hart… but fast! No, seriously:
"Michael Hart ability with speed. The kind of guy that can do Michael's cuts, he can sit down, sink his hips and explode by making steps. He's faster than Mike and a very, very tough guy, like Mike was. He's very similar to Mike. He's not the type of inside runner Mike was -- but he's going to get there."
Even Toussaint laughs at that:
“I ain’t ready for that statement (laughter). Mike Hart is something else. I’m just not ready for that. I’ve still got a ways too go.”
But that's not all. He's like Chris Perry… but fast!
"He's got great feet, acceleration, strength, power," Jackson said. "I can compare him to somebody -- he's like a fast Chris Perry. He's going to be very good."
Fred Jackson has puffed up a lot of guys in his twenty years at Michigan, but I think Fitzgerald Toussaint is the new king of the hill. It's interesting that Schilling's quote on Toussaint is pretty Hart-like:
“He’s a tough runner. He’s a guy that hits it up in there. He’s not afraid to go up the middle and get the extra yards, make a 4-yard run into a 6- or-7-yard run and makes some easier down-and-distance for us.”
If that's true, FormerWolve's assertion that he's the #1 guy becomes almost certain, because he was a high school track star (his 60 meter dash is about a tenth slower than Denard's)—the "fast" bit of Fred Jackson's fever dreams has been established by stopwatches. If either of the first parts are accurate… hello, nurse.
But wait! There's more! Teric Jones came in as a slot receiver/running back and was immediately thrown to the wolves at corner. His only playing time in '09 came against Delaware State, where he was repeatedly victimized on out routes late. In the aftermath he came in for a mention:
Teric Jones got torn up by DSU, which isn't a surprise since he's a true freshman who was a tailback in high school and never saw a snap on defense. I'm shocked he's not redshirting.
He moved to safety, and then back to corner, and is now on offense. That and the state of Michigan' secondary should tell you all you need to know about his potential on defense. On offense his claim to fame is simple: speed. As a junior he turned in a 4.37 40 at the Army All-American combine, and while that's pretty FAKE it was the best time turned in by anyone in attendance at the most star-laden combine in the country. He showed a glimpse of that during the spring game when he didn't quite catch Roy Roundtree despite his ten-yard head start but came awfully close (and dusted Vlad Emilien in the process).
With the positional confusion and five viable options in front of him, Jones will probably take a redshirt year, but he's down here, waiting.
With Moundros's switch to defense, John McColgan should find himself inheriting the job here. A couple years ago I suggested Moundros could see his role in the offense grow to Owen Schmitt levels, but that never happened. He was targeted on some passes out of the backfield, never got a carry, and saw opportunity elsewhere. McColgan won't be much more of a factor, especially with Stephen Hopkins claiming the RAGE as an alternative to Mike-Hart-but-fast carries.
But: that same arrival makes I-form short yardage pounding a highly viable strategy and Michigan will deploy McColgan when the downs get late and the field compressed. He's currently 230, up five pounds from last year.
Remember, all-time updates can be found on the 2011 Michigan Football Recruiting Board. If you have any recruiting tips or questions, you can e-mail them to me at [email protected] or tweet @varsityblue.
Michigan is expected to host a few official visitors this weekend, as well as a number of prospects hitting campus unofficially. Tom has a comprehensive list in the diaries, but some of the potential 2011 guys include:
- FL RB Demetrius Hart (right). Webb fluff.
- MI OL/DE Anthony Zettel
- GA S Avery Walls
- LA CB Daren Kitchen
- MI OL Commit Jake Fisher
- MI CB Commit Delonte Hollowell
- MI DE Commit Brennen Beyer
Thins are always changing, so for the latest news (as well as a working list of 2012 prospects who plan to be in attendance), make sure to visit Tom's Diary.
On UMHoops, Dylan also runs down some of the basketball visitors for this weekend, including a familiar name in Glenn Robinson III.
OH WR Darius Patton has narrowed his choices to West Virginia and Cincinnati.
NY/VA LB Antoine Pozniak has committed to South Florida. After showing initial interest in Michigan (including a visit to Ann Arbor), he seemed to fall off the map.
As expected, 2012 OH RB Warren Ball has selected Ohio State. The teammate of Chris Rock has been a Buckeye lean all along.
Another unsurprising 2012 commitment, as FL WR Avery Johnson will join his brother Patrick at LSU.
Michigan and Auburn continue to lead for NC WR/LB Kris Frost ($, info in header).
Michigan makes the top 5 for OH LB Sean Duggan.
The Pittsburgh Tribune ranks a few linebacker prospects in the area, including #1 Branden Jackson:
A 6-foot-4, 225-pound senior, Jackson is ranked as the No. 9 outside linebacker in the country by Scout.com. Jackson's speed makes him a nightmare for quarterbacks and running backs. His ability to sprint into the backfield or smoothly cover potential receivers causes havoc for opposing offenses. Jackson has scholarship offers from about a dozen Division I schools, including North Carolina, Pitt and Texas Tech.
and #3 Armstead Williams:
A 6-3, 200-pound senior, Williams has the quickness and arm reach to drag down ball-carriers and bat down passes. Williams has a folder full of scholarship offers, including Maryland, Michigan and N.C. State. The Gator standout made it known he hopes to receive an offer from the Gators of Florida.
At this point, Jackson seems like a more realistic prospect for this class than Williams, but there's plenty of time remaining before February.
FL LB Gionni Paul has narrowed his list of schools ($, info in header), but that smaller group includes Michigan, which he expects to visit ($, info in header). I've added him to the recruiting board.
IL OL Chris Bryant is waiting to see how some of his favorites start the 2010 season before making a decision ($, info in header). As Tom told us a couple weeks ago, that likely means that a strong start from the Wolverines leads to a commitment from Bryant.
OH TE Frank Clark has a few favorites in mind. California and UNC lead Michigan, UCLA, Eastern Michigan, and Toledo. Michigan is definitely looking for a TE in this class, so we'll see how hard they push for Clark.
Local fluff on FL DT Timmy Jernigan. Michigan is still in his top group of schools, and he'll eventually visit Ann Arbor:
He's down to five schools — Florida, Florida State, Alabama, Michigan and LSU. And two others schools — Miami and Georgia — are getting a little interest. Jernigan said he plans to take five official visits this fall in order to get a feel for schools during game days because wants to be able to interact with players in their natural environment.
He won't be making a decision anytime soon though:
Jernigan said he doesn't plan to make a decision until after his senior season and if not on National Signing Day, then very close to it. He claims to not have a leader, but admits that since eighth or ninth grade, Florida and FSU have jumped out "head first" for him.
We're all familiar with how well Michigan's coaching staff does with prospects (and especially parents) when they come on campus, so they should get a chance to sway Jernigan.
This also applies to 2011, but Josh Helmholdt's recruiting column is more applicable to next year's recruiting class. Some schools are confused about the idiotic new NCAA rule that prohibits 2012 prospects from getting official offers until next fall.
MI WR Efe Scott-Emuakpor visited Michigan this summer, but it sounds like the East Lansing native is more focused on his hometown Spartans.
Sylvania Southview isn't just the home of OH S Allen Gant, but he has a couple teammates who are generating D-1 interest as well.
Tom Lemming's Second Season blog for the Chicago Sun-Times runs down some of Illinois's top junior prospects.
10/1 – Minnesota
10/8 – @ Northwestern
10/15 – @ Michigan State
10/22 – BYE
10/29 – Purdue
11/5 – @ Iowa
11/12 – @ Illinois
11/19 – Nebraska
11/26 – Ohio State
Doom partially averted.
UPDATE: 2012, by the way:
9/29 – BYE
10/6 – @ Purdue
10/13 – Illinois
10/20 – Michigan State
10/27 – @ Nebraska
11/3 – @ Minnesota
11/10 – Northwestern
11/17 – Iowa
11/24 – @ Ohio State
Looks like they're trying to make an important divisional game the second-to-last one of the season. By virtue of dodging Penn State and Wisconsin the next two years, Michigan is set up with pretty easy schedules.
UPDATE II: Sadly, "basketball will chart its own course."
So: everyone and their twitter feed has been pumping out confirmations/assertions that
- the initial reports of the divisions are accurate,
- Michigan and Ohio State will be left at the end of the season,
- the other protected rivalries are PSU-Nebraska, Iowa-Purdue, Wisconsin-Minnesota, Michigan State-Indiana, and NW-Illinois, and
- rumors that cross-division games are just tiebreakers are flatlining.
The only person dropping BREAKING RUMORS to the contrary is Dennis Dodd, who looks like Gollum and can safely be ignored.
Obviously those protected rivals are thoroughly stupid, and Michigan's going to have a tough hill to climb most years, but at least the other historical heavyweights have guaranteed matchups. Iowa and Wisconsin should have been paired with each other to make things even. I guess the MSU-Indiana game is slanted towards MSU but is that ever going to be relevant?
If all this stuff is true, and it's coming from so many different directions now that it almost has to be, Michigan and Ohio State fans can declare Mission Accomplished. At least 80% of the mission. #4 above is more an absence of crazy information than a presence of sane. I would like to see the first tiebreaker in divisions be overall conference record of opponents, even superseding head-to-head, but I don't think that's likely.
Got your torch? Pitchfork? Great:
A person familiar with the discussions says the Big Ten plans to announce Wednesday night how it will break up into two divisions.
The person, who spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity because the conference hasn't released the information, says the process of putting six teams in each division was completed on Wednesday.
Random internet people at Frank The Tank's Slant, the unofficial home of expansion speculation are saying this is the breakdown:
IS THE DUMBEST THING IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE DIVISION
I'm not vouching for that at all, but I haven't seen anything suggesting people have come to their damn senses and put M and OSU in the same division.
Rating: 4 of 5.
|Mark Huyge||Jr.*||Steve Schilling||Sr.*||David Molk||Jr.*||Patrick Omameh||So.*||Perry Dorrestein||Sr.*|
|Taylor Lewan||Fr.*||Ricky Barnum||So.*||Rocko Khoury||So.*||Quinton Washington||Fr.*||Michael Schofield||Fr.*|
|--||--||Elliott Mealer||So.*||Christian Pace||Fr.||John Ferrara||Sr.*||--||--|
Last year the big stat was Michigan's rushing game over the second half of the season, which went from turrible to solidly above average and hypothetically would have been 30th nationally if they hadn't been flailing around the first half of the season. A 3.5 was offered here after the previous seasons oh-so-warranted 1, and that seemed slightly pessimistic as Michigan firebombed its first four opponents on the ground (sacks, kneeldowns, and bad snaps obscured a 222 yard day against Indiana in game four).
Unfortunately, once the opposition got serious the loss of David Molk for all but three snaps of the Big Ten schedule could not be overcome. The right side of the line resembled Drew Palmisano during the Epic Karma series (hey-o!), David Moosman was not as agile as Molk and had a nasty tendency to chuck snaps anywhere but the quarterback's chest, and snap counts got predictable enough for Michigan State players to commit what seemed like five or so uncalled offsides penalties.
The result was a gradual decline, probably an extra loss or two—it's not hard to see Molk's presence swing at least one of the Iowa, Purdue, or Michigan State games, especially since half of Michigan's negatives in the MSU game were attributed to his absence—and the team's failure to lock down this blog's giddy projections of Michigan's BEST RUSH OFFENSE EVER (since 2000) after the first third of the schedule. The resulting absence from a bowl game has us where we are now, on a rickety boat approaching Niagara Falls.
But, hey, silver lining: Molk's absence last year means everyone this year started at least three games and could be regarded a returning starter if you want to squint at it. Sure, the two guys who tried right tackle last year were wonky enough to provide a redshirt freshman his starts, but… hey… like… whatever. Compared to last year, there's a ton of depth and experience. Compared to 2008, there is a Weisload. (Miss you, big guy xoxo.) Ask Rodriguez:
“Two years ago, it’s not even close,” Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said. “… Now, we have four or five guys that have started, guys that have redshirted in (Taylor) Lewan and (Michael) Schofield and Quinton Washington that are now ready to play.
“We still have not as quite as talented in the ones and twos as we’d like to be, but we’ll have seven or eight guys when we’re done with camp in a week or two that we’ll feel comfortable playing.”
The interior line looks killer if Patrick Omameh can live up to the cascades of hype he's receiving, and the tackles… well… like… whatever?
Rating: 3 of 5.
After a spring in which already-hyped Taylor Lewan found himself starting at left tackle thanks to Perry Dorrestein's back injury—thus picking up an extra, even shinier layer of hype—you couldn't find a Michigan fan who would have projected him to start the year on the bench. But that's apparently the case, as the two veterans who made the right side such a mess last year have held onto their starting spots by the skin of their teeth. Rodriguez says this is due to considerable improvement…
“Yeah, the upper classman are battling to keep it. (Mark) Huyge and (Perry) Dorrestein have really done a good job in camp. The two young tackles (Michael) Schofield and (Taylor) Lewan have been pretty solid. They’re bigger, stronger and I think that competition has been pretty good. I’ve been really pleased they way Perry and Mark have responded to the challenge and really have their best camps since I’ve been here the last two years."
…but it is hard to imagine him saying anything else. I believe him, but like a lot of spots on the team the returning starters have a long way to go.
|huge whiff on LB|
|fails to cut LB|
|springs Minor TD|
|GOOD TACKLE STUFF|
|on his way to six points|
|huge cutback lane|
|blocking the backside DE|
|BAD TACKLE STUFF|
Your tentative starting left tackle is redshirt junior Mark Huyge. His issues in pass protection started as early as the Notre Dame game, when a Moosman injury forced Michigan to shuffle him inside. He picked up –6 points after being "driven back on multiple plays" on Forcier's game-winning drive and was so shaky against Michigan State that he was pulled for third-stringer John Ferrara; Ferrara "immediately gave up a crushing sack." This caused "So the right side of the line just can't block?" to become a UFR question and kicked off a stretch of ugly protection numbers that would span most of the rest of the season, with Illinois and Wisconsin standing out as late, hopeful exceptions.
By the Purdue game, Huyge's pass protection issues were "the usual" as he racked up a –5 on a day when the offensive line pulled a very poor 14/29 in the protection metric. He did manage to avoid any minuses on an "extremely shaky" performance against Penn State (Dorrestein got a –2). The clips at right are mixed, but since twenty-yard runs always get clipped and zero-yard runs are only taken out when they are important or seem emblematic of something, a 50-50 mix is not a great ratio.
So he wasn't very good last year. There's reason to expect a significant step forward, though. He enters the year at tackle and won't get bounced back and forth between different positions. He, along with the rest of the offensive line, got swoll in the offseason. After going into 2009 at 288, Huyge is now a strapping 306 pounds, and as a who-dat recruit on the offensive line you can expect a bigger leap forward between redshirt sophomore and junior years than, say, a tailback. And perhaps most importantly, he's held off the charging Lewan.
Perry Dorrestein: GOOD AT HUGZ
Right tackle Perry Dorrestein, meanwhile, started the year off as Huyge's backup and only drew into the lineup when injury forced him to, first temporarily against ND and then permanently for the Big Ten schedule. His first extended action came against Indiana and their surprisingly talented defensive ends. He did not fare well:
PROTECTION METRIC: 22/32, Koger –1, Brown –2, Team –2, Dorrestein –5.
That is not good. That is bad, and all of it save the "team" category came when Indiana defensive ends pwned the opposition. That might be understandable when you're a pass-catching tight end or a tailback, but Dorrestein was responsible for a lot of the Forcier chaos and didn't do much to justify Mark Huyge's move inside. Huyge's struggled in pass protection himself; unless Patrick Omameh surges into the starting position he lost in spring—not likely at this point—it's going to be those guys the rest of the way and the protection will be dodgy.
He picked up a –4 in the ugly Michigan State game, coming in for the same "right side of OL? More like the right side of oh noes!" criticism Huyge did. He was strictly a tackle, never moving inside.
|authoritatively pancakes him.|
|seals the playside DE|
|gets off the ball|
Dorrestein, like Huyge, threw on a bunch of weight in the offseason, but since he's going from 306 to 321 that's less obviously positive. He wasn't the guy struggling at the back of the OL group in the fall scrimmage—that would be Quinton Washington—but 321 seems a little hefty for Rodriguez's offensive style. It's not nearly as important for tackles to have the crazy agility the interior line needs, but those backside DTs need to be chopped down by backside tackles if cutback lanes are going to open up. I thought this might signal an end to the tackle competition before it began, but this is obviously not the case.
For what it's worth, the tackles had good days against Illinois and Wisconsin, the latter against an intimidating defensive line. This was a significant factor in Forcier's excellent passing day against the Badgers; it could have been better but Forcier still had to "get used to the idea" that the pass protection could be, like, good. It was hard to tell who was at fault in the Iowa game, when Iowa stunts consistently fooled the Michigan OL.
So that's all kind of scary, but it's worth noting that last year I was full of consternation about Mark Ortmann, whose junior year saw stuff like this go down in a single game…
Ortmann(-2) totally smoked by a blindside rusher… Ortmann(-2) took a poor angle downfield, though, and the MLB beats him, prompting Threet to pitch it despite a State LB having decent contain. … Ortmann and McAvoy just run by an MSU linebacker … A three-man rush; Ortmann's guy spins inside of him and dives at Threet's feet [to sack] … Ortmann(-2) beaten pretty badly [on a sack].
…and left me asserting "I'd be surprised to see Ortmann keep his job." Ortmann not only hung on to it, he played well the whole year, hitting the preview's projected upside of Adam Stenavich. If Michigan had been good and stuff he might have made an all-conference team (second team, but still). The moral is that linemen can develop at any point and that old ones are usually good ideas.
This year will be a big test for Greg Frey, who's generally well-regarded by the fanbase and can now show his mettle by improving the returning veterans in the same way he turned Ortmann into a pretty good Big Ten player.
Lewan left, Schofield right
Taylor Lewan is currently a backup but it wouldn't be surprising to see him supplant someone for one of the starting tackle jobs during the season. He's one of those guys who had an avalanche of recruiting hype actually followed up by at-practice hype—far from a given for offensive linemen—and, as mentioned above, he was sufficiently impressive in spring for visions of freshman starter Jake Long to dance in Michigan fans' heads. This site's take from spring;
On the outside there's been some shuffling with Dorrestein and Huyge flopping left to right at times. This may be due to Taylor Lewan's (right) quick emergence. He's been called an "obvious future star" and "reminiscent of Jake Long." Reports are still conflicting on his readiness but all agree that his upside is as rapturous as the recruiting gurus promised; it seems like it's matter of time before he claims the left tackle spot. That timeframe may be September or it may be next year. The most recent move suggests the move may come sooner rather than later. Flipping Huyge to the right seems to be an effort to get Michigan's best five on the field. If I had to bet, I'd go with Lewan as the starting LT against UConn.
The timeline is going to be at least a little less aggressive than that, but he's also got Jibreel Black's vote:
“The best pass blocker I went against is probably Taylor Lewan, most definitely. Running wise, I would have to say (Steve) Schilling.
Lewan's recruiting profile constantly references Jake Long—constantly sees other people reference Jake Long, that is—and sooner or later it seems likely he'll be a star. Since he isn't actually Jake Long a more realistic timeframe may be the Omameh one where the redshirt freshman year sees some sporadic playing time and starts when needed due to veterans getting injured or not performing, leaving the breakout for next year.
Lewan's classmate Michael Schofield is the backup right tackle (though either tackle going down will see Lewan enter the lineup). A well-regarded and athletic but relatively slight four-star prospect coming out of high school, Schofield's put on 25 pounds over the last year and now stands at 293—his father posts enthusiastically on Scout about how none of his clothes fit any more. Despite that gain, Schofield is probably another year or two away from playing time. In the fall scrimmage he was one of the few linemen to draw Rodriguez's ire (pad level, naturally).
Somewhat frighteningly, there are no other scholarship backups, not even true freshmen. In the event Angry Michigan Secondary-Hating God gets bored and starts picking off tackles like it's going out of style, the last-ditch option is either moving Omameh outside or bringing in Ricky Barnum, who's practiced everywhere his first two years at Michigan.
Rating: 4 of 5.
|seals Ethan Johnson|
|kicks out DT|
|executes tough reach|
|excellent scoop block|
|gets a cutback lane|
|cuts the living hell out of LB|
|blocks no one|
|shoots upfield immediately|
|slanting DT into backfield|
Steve Schilling, now a candidate for the Brooks Bollinger Memorial Eighth-Year Senior Award, returns for a fourth year as a starter. Unfortunately, none of those years have been super awesome. Persistent pass-protection issues at right tackle (perhaps understandable since Schilling's high school team almost literally never threw the ball) forced him to move inside last year, where his pass-protection issues were mitigated… but not exactly quashed. He came in for some worry after the Purdue game:
… man, the pass protection issues are not letting up and the second-most vulnerable guy other than whoever the right tackle is has been Schilling, which isn't good. You can sort of understand why a two-star sophomore who had only MAC offers is struggling at tackle. Schilling's at an easier spot and is a five-star junior. At this point he's probably not going to live up to the hype. That's not to say he's bad, but pass protection breakdowns from the LG spot are really frustrating, especially when there are many incidents where Schilling doesn't lose his guy but gets shoved so far back in the pocket that Forcier has nowhere to go when someone comes tearing around the right tackle.
Schilling did do well in Genuinely Sarcastic's run charting last year and get Black's vote for best run blocker, so he's not exactly bad. He's just not what people expected when he was the hotness picking Michigan over USC out of Bellvue, Washington.
He should take another step forward as a senior, obviously, and finish out his career a solid player. Reasonable expectations are being able to hold up against bull-rushes better and pick up more stunts, though that latter issue could be due to the problems at center once Molk went down.
|you go to ground now|
|sees it and jets|
|on his way to six points|
|gets outside the tackle|
David Molk didn't play in spring and had a green jersey through part of fall camp, so the question foremost in your mind is about his health. The good news is that he's basically Mike Martin when it comes to holding a guy out:
Is David Molk healthy now?
Coach Rodriguez: “Yeah. He scrimmaged yesterday a little bit. We didn’t have him go the whole time for precautionary reasons, but he got a few good series in and did pretty well.”
Hallelujah. Since he missed most of last year there's not a lot more to go on than this site's assessment of his redshirt freshman season, which was rapturous after the Penn State game:
He got dinged later in the year for being small, but in a system like this where he's reach-blocking all day his agility is an asset. Time and again against Penn State he successful executed these blocks, springing people into the secondary. Against Notre Dame he did the same thing.
The issues are obvious, though: too many missed blocks, and too many blocks where he's just not strong enough to deal with his man. But he's a redshirt freshman; strength should come.
As far as last year goes, he did pick up a couple of holding penalties against Western, resulting in a small cluck. The response of Rodriguez, who called him "one of the team's best players," and the offense when he went out with an injury indicates just how important he was to the team.
Healthy, back in shape, and ten pounds heavier than he was going into last year—twenty pounds heavier than he was the last time he got a lot of playing time against quality opponents—Molk should be the team's best lineman and in the conversation for All Big Ten at the end of the season, with a Rimington finalist kind of year his max upside.
Last but probably not least when it comes to the starters, redshirt sophomore Patrick Omameh is set to bust out. He was the Lewan of last year, the recipient of a torrent of practice hype who fans were surprised to see on the bench, even more surprised to see him still on the bench when Molk went out, and further surprised still when he danced his way into the starting lineup as a guard when he'd been hyped up as the next great Michigan tackle for going on two years. As late as February I was saying things like "Omameh has always been regarded a left tackle prospect."
This wasn't actually wrong:
But following weeks of pats on the back from his coaches, Omameh, in part of a widespread shift along the line, got the start at right guard in UM's third-to-final game of the year. Not only was it his first game action at the position, Omameh had never even worked at right guard in practice.
Why would Michigan make such a weird move? And then why would they stick with it? Well:
Yuck. Is there any hope for the OL going forward?
Well, Omameh had a very good day, and not just for a redshirt freshman. His agility is as advertised:
He was sealing DTs with Moosman all day; he seemed to have a grasp on pass protection, too. He was so obviously good that he's now your starter at RG, no questions asked, as Huyge and Dorrestein fight it out at right tackle. That's an important step forward for him. If he's languished on the bench as Ferrara got the start the hype on him would be heading towards Grady Brooks territory; as it is he's beaten out some more experienced options and played well as a redshirt freshman. You can now put him in pen somewhere on next year's line.
|great, Hart-like run|
|out on the MLB.|
|kicks the DL down the line by himself|
|pulls Omameh around|
In Michigan's offense the guys who can get 15 yards downfield and put a hat on a guy need to be guards. I can't tell you how many times I've UFRed a play where Michigan has creased the opponent's line and looks set up for a big play only for the guard releasing downfield to do an ole and for Michigan to get three yards. (Here's a Picture Pages from '08 that provides an example.) Last year when Huyge was forced inside his strike rate was iffy, as you can see in his "downfield no" section. Omameh and Schilling provide the potential for Michigan to have two guys who can get blocks downfield, sometimes way downfield, and turn those 3, 4, and 5 yard runs into 10, 15, 20, or more. That's why Omameh's inside.
There he's been getting buckets and buckets of hype, from here and anywhere else you want to look. Like most of the other guys on the line he's packed on the muscle, now checking in at 299 after last year's 276. The thing I remember most from the spring game was Omameh not only sealing but pancaking Renaldo Sagesse, a senior and decent Big Ten player, on one particular zone stretch. If this is true…
"The only way I can tell I'm heavier is by stepping on the scale," Omameh said. "I still feel like, and move like, the way I did when I came in. The strength is evident when I play."
This will be fairly brief since no one on the interior has seen game time. At center the primary backup is Rocko Khoury, a middling three-star recruit who was passed over last year in favor of the crazy shuffling. Since he was a redshirt freshman that's not a huge black mark. The ease with which Mike Martin was crushing him in the fall practice is slightly concerning, but hopefully Martin will be doing that to all manner of opponents.
At guard, redshirt sophomores Ricky Barnum and Elliott Mealer plus redshirt freshman Quinton Washington are the primary backups, with Barnum and Washington the top two guys on the depth chart. All came in fairly highly touted and have enough experience that seeing one on the field—probably Barnum—won't be cause for too much alarm.
Senior John Ferrara has fallen to third-string and will probably be limited to special teams; solitary freshman Christian Pace is guaranteed to redshirt.