Yes please. Google is going to turn some city into the future by hooking them up with crazy gigabit fiber lines. That is one gigabit per second. That is 100 times faster than current high speed lines. You want this. The city and university have put together a fiber site that you can hit up and take action if you'd like to download wholesome educational programs at incredible speeds. Join the facebook page, submit your desperate plea to Google—if you're an orphan this is mandatory—and maybe hold a prayer session.
I will mention this again.
Delegation and goodbyes. So Tim is out of town this week and I think it's more productive to look up every last word written about Ray Vinopal than preview a Minnesota game that may make or break Michigan's NIT chances. UMHoops has its typically excellent preview if you are hankering. [ED: Ha ha! Tim just told me he's put up a preview. What part of vacation he doesn't understand, hat hat hat.]
It is senior night, and a word on DeShawn Sims: last year I thought Sims would escape the Lavell Blanchard limbo. Blanchard was a pretty good player on a series of lousy teams in the midst of Michigan's long period of raketastic basketball.
RAKE! I SAID RAKE!
He did and he didn't. He was singlehandedly responsible for burying Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament game that was Michigan's last chance to blow its first tourney bid since the Pyramids were built, and for that we thank him. He could not do enough to turn this season away from its head-on course with more rakes, and for that we feel sorry for him. He'll have a long professional career (probably in Europe) and come back in a while to a standing ovation he'll deserve.
As for Anthony Wright, who will not return for a fifth year: thanks for keeping us in that Oklahoma game. There are worse things than being remembered as the guy who inexplicably exploded in a second-round NCAA game. Zack Gibson: I thought they should have played him more, except when they did.
Emo Cold War details. Big Chill details have dropped. Bullets of interest:
- Hockey season ticket holders get the first crack at primo seats.
- Football season ticket holders get the rest of the primo seats.
- MSU's section is sizeable and pretty decent.
- Students are where students go.
- Sideline seats are $25, endzone seats $15. Seems a bit more expensive than I would have gone with.
If they put the MSU students… nevermind. MSU students don't go to hockey games. If, hypothetically, there were going to be any MSU students at the game and they got put in that overhang in sections 3 and 2 they will stand up and there will be crankiness similar to the first Cold War. Suggestion: don't do this.
More Graham. Brandon Graham tweaked his hamstring at the combine but put up an impressive bench and a 4.69 40, further solidifying his status as a first-round pick. He may be a high, high first-rounder:
Graham often gets knocked for his lack of height, but I saw him standing next to TCU’s Jerry Hughes, a very similar player, and Graham’s shoulders were visibly higher and wider than Hughes’. Graham also had better 10 second splits than Hughes, who is universally lauded for his explosiveness. If Graham had a neck he’d be at least an inch and a half taller, and then nobody would question his top 10 draft status. I know the Seahawks, who pick at #6, were paying real close attention.
There's also an approving mention from a Buccaneers site.
Etc.: Interesting News article on the divergent financial situations at Michigan and Michigan State. M is one of the few elite school still hiring and is thus getting their top picks just about everywhere; State is cutting almost a sixth of their undergraduate programs. Donations, endowments, and Michigan's high percentage of out-of-state undergrads are the difference. Will Leitch writes on Roger Ebert. Every time this happens it is a reminder of why Deadspin used to be something better than TMZSports. Rutgers fans know how we're feeling about the media.
About halfway through the St. John's game, I had come to the conclusion that Michigan 2010 (minus Ryan LaMarre) is Michigan State of 2009. Last year, the Spartans were a dark horse contender in the Big Ten with a couple good batters but were unable to score runs. They relied on their pitching to an extreme, winning several games of the 2-0 variety but also losing games 4-1. Each game was a test of patience for Spartan fans as they hoped and prayed that their offense might give their pitchers just enough support. They finished the Big Ten season at 13-11, good for fifth in the conference.
So now we look at Michigan. A team that, since the LaMarre injury, is averaging 4 hits per nine innings and 1.88 runs per nine innings. That's not going to have us competing in the Big Ten, at least from a championship perspective.
Let's take a broad perspective of the weekend in an attempt to stay positive. It's still early in the season. We're still tinkering with the lineup. Our pitching has been spectacular. Our offense showed signs of life by Sunday. We were never completely out of any game; everything was a pitchers' duel. Despite the struggles, it isn't all doom and gloom for Michigan right now. As a matter of fact, Baseball America's Aaron Fitt has some good things to say after catching parts of each of our games this weekend:
the Wolverines have enough pitching to keep them afloat. Michigan went just 1-2 this weekend, but it allowed just two runs in each of its three games. Righties Alan Oaks, Matt Miller and Tyler Burgoon all turned in strong starts this weekend and showed good stuff. Oaks sat at 90-92 and showed a good 80 mph slider and a 78 changeup […] A scout I talked to said Miller was up to 92 and showing a good four-pitch mix Saturday, and Burgoon racked up seven strikeouts over six innings Sunday thanks to an 87-91 mph fastball, a big-breaking slurve and a decent changeup. And sophomore righty Brandon Sinnery will be a rock in the bullpen thanks to a nasty 74-76 breaking ball.
So with that, a recap of the weekend's games, the left field situation, and the pitching staff: [Ed: after the jump.]
There is no official word about it yet, but both premium sites have started with the grumbles about the upcoming APR report. As demanded by math, Michigan won't fare well. This here site has been fretting about the APR numbers since at least May of last year when the 2008 numbers came out:
I am a bit concerned Michigan's football numbers will dip over the next few years. The four-year rolling numbers:
That's a steady decline as the Carr years waned and attrition increased. The APR issues two points per student per year, one for being academically eligible and one for not leaving, and Michigan's suffered a lot of premature departures.
Note that I didn't have that quite right. The APR issues two points per term:
What is the APR?
The Academic Progress Rate is an NCAA measure to track the academic achievement of Division I teams during each academic term. Each student-athlete earns one point for staying in school and one point for being academically eligible. A team’s total points are divided by points possible and multiplied by 1,000 to equal the team’s APR score. Teams that fall below the minimum APR score of 925 face possible sanctions ranging from scholarship reductions to more severe penalties.
Also, early pro departures who leave in good standing don't hurt you. If they leave ineligible, that's 0-for-2.
In late July, I tried to put some hard numbers on the departures and came up with improbably positive results: even after somewhere between twelve and fifteen players left the team in 2009 I came up with a worst-case number of 941, which is considerably above the NCAA minimum of 925. After some consideration, I think my error was in overestimating the number of available points. Michigan's latest APR report shows an N of 241. If Michigan was using every last scholarship every semester—or, rather, if the NCAA was counting every last scholarship—that N would be 260. If you assume that only 93% of the points are available in an average year, the 941 estimate drops to 937. Since Michigan has spent the last two years really short that is a conservative estimate.
Since then Michigan has lost Justin Feagin, Marell Evans, Vince Helmuth, Boubacar Cissoko, and Brandon Smith, but it's unclear where those guys will count. Smith and Cissoko will clearly apply to 2010 numbers, but Feagin, Evans, and Helmuth all left over the summer and it's not clear which year their departures will be charged to. Feagin played at Texas Southern this year and therefore must have left eligible. Evans was a member of Hampton's latest recruiting class*, which makes me think he stayed at Michigan for at least a semester. If he'd transferred immediately he would have played, like Feagin did. (He's still in the directory, but I'm still in the directory. This is not conclusive.) Vince Helmuth transferred to Miami (Not That Miami). Since that's a D-I school he has to sit out a year eligible or not, but IIRC Helmuth was a good student in high school and Miami is not a common destination for the academically challenged.
Departures after the July 22 post should cost Michigan two more APR points if they count against '09 at all. That brings them down to 930 using the same system my rough, still-optimistic math above suggests. My guess is Michigan's APR this year is below 925.
ARRRRGH GIVE ME A FRICKIN' SIREN?
But will they fall under the mark when all four years are averaged? Probably not. Since the first APR reports on the NCAA's site cover shorter periods of time we can figure out Michigan's yearly APR and find the ones that will figure in this year's calculation.
The last three scores are 970, 930, and 933. The premium grumbles give me pause—does anyone care enough to mention it if Michigan's four-year APR drops to 935?—but Michigan would have to drop an 867 this year to be subject to penalties. That 970 is a big buffer.
It's a buffer that will go away next year, though, and Michigan will have to resume its usual practice of not flailing around with 67 scholarship kids because of a zillion transfers if it's going to stay out of the penalty box. Of course, if Michigan doesn't do that the APR is just going to be another reason Michigan's looking for a new coach.
*(So is Nu'Keese Richardson, FWIW.)
Iowa. Asian pop bands. A love that is forever. Via the message board, another inexplicable Asian pop song in which the Hawkeyes feature prominently. This one is less pedobear and more 120 Minutes.
One correction to the MGoBoard poster: Girls' Generation is totally not obscure. "Gee" was the longest-running #1 song on KBS's Music Bank, I will have you know.
Enter the Schnell. Michigan will play Howard Schnellenberger University, also known as Florida Atlantic, in 2012:
It appears the Owls will play at Michigan in 2012 barring any snags in the final negotiations.
"It looks like both sides are amenable to it," said FAU AD Craig Angelos.
I don't really care who Michigan brings in as a random tomato can, but do have a preference for local schools. I guess the FAU game is a vague attempt to increase Michigan's profile in the state, or something. Rod Payne is a coach there and Grant Debenedictis an athletic department employee, FWIW.
"Hey, in my kit back there where I've got all my dope." I hit up NCAA.org today in search of APR information to update last summer's post about what will certainly be a dip in Michigan's numbers this year—more on that later—and the top headline is the fourth item in a series about Division II reform. This would normally rank low on my list of things to bring you, but here's the topic:
Hourly limits to be evaluated in Phase II review
Among the areas of review in Phase II of the Life in the Balance initiative is the nebulous “20/8-hour rule,” which regulates athletically related activities in and out of season.
Given that it’s difficult to understand and even harder to track (the rule trips up Division I institutions, too), it’s probably going to be tough for the Division II Legislation Committee to develop recommendations for modifying it.
The NCAA's official website just called the in- and out-of-season hourly limits "nebulous," "difficult to understand," and "even harder to track." So there you go.
Well… yeah. Add this to the pile of former Michigan players asked about Rich Rodriguez who all basically say the same thing in different ways. It's Brandon Graham's turn:
“After the season, we said that, ‘you can’t be up for so long, eventually you have to pay taxes,’ ” Graham said on Saturday. “That’s how we look at it until we get it back up. That’s what we’re going to do. I hope them boys get right next year. Because coach (Rich Rodriguez has) only got one more year — if they don’t do (anything). Because of the allegations, and then, if you have a bad year, then you’ve got to get someone new.”
Again, this is just a different version of the same opinion heard in all of these quotes. They don't say anything about Rodriguez, really. They say something about the guy offering the quote. Brandon Graham, as per usual, is win.
Target date for reacquisition of mojo. … If you mean "enough for Rich Rodriguez to keep his job," there is no patience for those questions to work themselves out; it's 2010 or never. The Wolverines need seven regular season wins to ward off the inevitable mob clamoring for Rodriguez's head, which probably means breaking even in Big Ten play, which means winning more conference games this season (four) than the 2008-09 teams won in the last two combined (three).
That's a dramatically lowered bar relative to anything Michigan has considered a reasonable standard in 40 years. At this point, though, beggars can't be choosers: Every energy this fall has to go to getting back above .500, finding something to hang a helmet on and setting higher goals from there.
A theory put to the test. My swanky blogging program has an auto-link capacity that I've used to link to my Bleacher Report hating (hey, there it goes) since I published it. In that post is this assertion:
The mere fact that people can't immediately tell the difference between the dreck on the Bleacher Report and your average MSM columnist is perhaps the most damning criticism you can offer of MSM columnists.
Now we'll get an opportunity to test that out in practice. A few newspapers desperate for free content have signed one of them content-sharing agreements. Congratulations to newspaper subscribers in Houston, San Antonio, San Francisco, and Seattle: you are the vanguard. Someone who works for a newspaper said this:
“Bleacher Report’s publishing platform provides a powerful way to serve our readers quality, original content that complements our own coverage,” Stephen Weis, executive vice president of the Houston Chronicle and general manager of Chron.com, said in a statement. “Working with Bleacher Report, we’re able to reach out to local fans and add a variety of viewpoints on each of the day’s sports stories that matters most to our readers in their home markets.”
Sporting News colleague Dan Levy says "there's something missing" in his BR critique on the Sporting Blog. This is because Dan Levy is a very nice man. I have many theories as to what the missing thing is that are not very nice. I do eagerly anticipate the day when either the Free Press or the LA Times hops on board and people can't tell the difference between Plaschke, Sharp, and a 14-year-old whose main interests are Tony Hawk and imagining what it would be like to touch a boob. Dress them up in Official Journalist trappings and give them once-over from a copy editor and it'll be hard to distinguish.
Etc.: Tom Harmon goes to work.
|Metairie, Louisiana - 6'1" 195
||Scout||3*, #79 S|
|Rivals||3*, #33 S, #13 Louisiana|
|ESPN||3*, 76, #73 S|
|Other Suitors||Utah, Minnesota, Colorado, Tennessee, LSU (interest).|
|Commitment post. Johnson's coach drops in on Rivals. Johnson figures prominently in several editions of Friday Night Lights. A local coach offers a positive take.|
|Notes||Will play box safety.|
When Michigan brought in Louisiana safety Carvin Johnson for an early November visit, he was the definition of a who-dat. The last thing Rivals had written about him was a four-month-old piece on Tulane's interest. When he committed, Tim scoured the internets for ratings and came up with this:
|NR S||NR DB||Not in Database|
As you can see, Johnson is a COMPLETE STUD that the recruiting services ABSOLUTELY LOVE and have even HEARD OF.
Naturally, people were skeptical. He and safety classmate Ray Vinopal have spent the last month or so talking about how they're going to prove their doubters wrong because most of the things people have said about them are "why aren't you Latwan Anderson?" and "argh."
That was then. If you'll look above you'll note that the recruiting services now have an idea who Johnson is and think he's kind of good. The three stars Johnson got from Rivals are not a perfunctory ok-you-committed-to-Michigan three stars. He's on the verge of a fourth star (the #11 player in Louisiana has four stars). While the other three star rankings are perfunctory, there's plenty of evidence that Johnson is not a MAC-level flier and is actually a guy who Michigan got in on while he was under the radar.
Why might Carvin Johnson, who played for Louisiana power Rummel, which made the state championship game and landed a ton of guys on the all-state team in the largest division, be under the radar?
What did you like least about the process?
• Carvin Johnson: “I didn’t like anything about it. I don’t like all that, I really don’t. I don't like recruiting, I don’t like going to the recruiting camps. I don’t like all that, I just like to play, pretty much. You want to watch me play, come and watch me play."
Johnson totally avoided the camp and combine circuit, lowering his profile. LSU is now heavily dependent on its summer camp, so when Johnson didn't show he fell off their radar. Since Rummel's coach has his kids on serious lockdown—Carvin's in-season official visit was an extremely rare event for a coach who usually does not permit them—Johnson was virtually unknown to the sites when he committed.
Since that time there has been plenty of evidence that Johnson is a sleeper in the true sense of the word.
Item one: the above-mentioned re-rank. Rivals' enthusiasm derives from an in-person viewing($):
STRENGTHS: Johnson is a fantastic tackler. He can tackle in the open field or fill the alley. He brings a pop at the point of contact and always has the ball carrier falling backwards. Johnson is a smart safety in the run game, picking his spots to make an impact and not overpursuing or being too aggressive.
WEAKNESSES: Johnson doesn't look to have elite straight-line speed and he is more of a run-support safety than a coverage guy. - B.S.
Scout and ESPN did not mention such a viewing, so the positive Rivals take carries more weight. Also, while Michigan recruits do tend to get a second look that doesn't mean they all get a bump. DJ Williamson and Ray Vinopal both carry two stars at one site or the other.
Item two: his profile amongst coaches wasn't quite as low as it was a the recruiting sites. When Johnson committed, he had a number of offers from BCS schools:
Johnson, a returning All-District 10-5A selection and the top player on the state's undefeated and No. 2 ranked team in Class 5A, had other official offers from Tulane, Minnesota, Colorado, Utah, Tulsa, SMU, Louisiana Tech, UL-M and Northern Illinois, Johnson and Rummel Coach Jay Roth said.
Minnesota, Utah, and Colorado aren't hugely exciting, but after Johnson committed LSU got on the phone with Rummel immediately. This was more than a cursory look. At about that point, LSU hired Tennessee RB coach Frank Wilson a job that he accepted. Wilson spearheaded a serious look at Johnson:
Frank was in town at Archbishop Rummel High School, taking a hard look at Carvin Johnson, who has verbally committed to Michigan. He likes the 6’1, 190 pound senior safety and may recruit him wherever he coaches next year. … He also opined that while LSU has gotten most of those outstanding home-grown players, they have either missed on or not recruited others, including the likes of Rummel’s Johnson.
Johnson did not reciprocate the interest and LSU eventually drifted away without an offer. Would Johnson gotten an offer if he had taken an official? That's not definite, but does seem possible. On Signing Day, Fred Jackson wove a tale of fending off a pair of unidentified SEC schools($) (and a horde of robot insects from Xazrak, this being Fred Jackson) at the last minute. In a Signing Day interview, Johnson confirmed that one of the schools was Tennessee.
Item three: local support. In the aftermath of the slightly downcast commitment post, this site received an unprompted email from a Louisiana football coach promoting Johnson's ability. Coach Ox:
Carvin Johnson is not even one of my players – but I have played against his Rummel team and know Jay Roth and his program well. Carvin Johnson can play. Here in LA, we do not send kids to camps to get hyped up. We know our kids can play. If a LA kid is going to combines, it is very much more than likely due to (a) his high school coach trying to get exposure for himself or (b) because his program isn’t any good, but he plays well. Trust me, this is how it is.
You are getting a solid player – big, physical, coached up, football smart.
(Clearly, Johnson is ticketed for the box safety role.) Meanwhile, scouring a local message board or two—"Carvin" is a terrific search term—reveals a few references, all of them positive. In a thread on Louisiana recruits that escaped the state, a poster claims a couple of in-state defensive backs are underrated, "especially Carvin." In a similar thread a couple of other posters pick Johnson as a guy LSU should have offered.
Defensively, he's amassed 74 tackles, including two sacks, while forcing a fumble, breaking up three passes and recording seven interceptions. He's also been a key special teams' performer, returning 26 punts for 358 yards (13.8 yards per return) and two touchdowns.
By the end of the year, Johnson was first-team all state in the largest classification, winner of the local "Amateur Athlete of the Month" award, and on the Clarion Herald's all-decade(!) team. One thing that's been widely reported here and elsewhere he did not, in fact, accomplish: Johnson was not the state championship game MVP in a 30-0 loss. He was his team's MVP. Imprecise language on the part of some local reporters has let that bizarre, and sadly untrue, factoid loose.
Local reporters tend towards panting reactions:
Breaud was terrific, taking many huge hits, particularly from a human missile named Carvin Johnson and by linebacker Chris Randle. Johnson, who earlier this week committed to Michigan, returned a punt 69-yards for a score on a brilliant effort but the play was called back for a block in the back by Rummel.
So there you go.
Item four: character/coach fawning. If Justin Feagin taught us anything, it's don't scam an unstable burnout out of money because he'll try to burn South Quad down. But if he taught us a second thing, it would be "don't read too much into quotes." Even so, Rummel coach Jay Roth's lavish praise moves the needle with your blogger. This bit specifically:
A mid-year transfer after starting as a freshman at a New Orleans-area public school, Johnson showed up in Roth’s office one day three years ago and said, “Coach, I was at a program where the kids showed up late for practice and they weren’t held accountable and the coach didn’t work as hard as I want to be worked. I want to be challenged.”
"But Carvin is a stud. When the word was out he committed to Michigan, my phone started ringing off the hook from the schools down here, but I told them it's too late.
"Carvin's told everyone that's tried to call that he's done. He's committed to Michigan."
“First of all,’’ Roth said, “everybody who knows Carvin or who has been around him knows that he’s as good of a person as he is a football player. That’s a compliment to him and his momma. Football-wise, he’s a ballhawk. He’s always around the football making plays.’’
"I cannot say enough about him and our defense."
After Johnson committed, Roth went so far as to hop on Rivals and answer a bunch of questions.
It is in these things that this site's recent optimism on Johnson is born. In this, he's like Vincent Smith last year: a player who initially drew a "meh" but by Signing Day was touted around here as one of the low-rated guys to watch out for in this class. Johnson isn't likely to have the same impact Smith did as a freshman—running back is always the easiest place to make an instant contribution—but he's this site's sleeper of the year.
Understatement of the Decade. Roth on Johnson:
“He’s a different kid. Very intense kid, look you in the eye, shake your hand firmly, hang on every word you say. And he’s not accustomed to losing. He doesn’t care for it too much.”
This is Johnson after Rummel's 30-0 loss—their first and only of the year—in the state championship game:
Word, coach Roth. Word.
Why Jamar Adams? Adams was 1) a big safety who was good in run support, 2) a generic three star to the sites, and 3) a guy who came in with a buzz disproportionate to his rankings. He bore that buzz out quickly, starting a couple games as a freshman when Angry Michigan Safety-Hating God struck and establishing himself a three-year starter. Over the course of his career, Adams proved himself a reliable safety, a character asset, and solid starter. He was a fringe NFL player because of a lack of top-end athleticism.
Guru Reliability: Low. Johnson was unknown until the Michigan commitment and the re-rank after that was based on game observations, sans all star or combine appearances. Also there's a considerable spread.
General Excitement Level: Moderate plus. I'd rather have a guru-approved kid, all things being equal, but this point Johnson has shed the who-dat label and appears to be a solid find for Rodriguez & Co. Roth's praise indicates a kid who will be a program asset, as well.
Projection: Might have a chance to contribute early since box safety is sort of vacant and classmate Marvin Robinson did not enroll early, but the best bet is for a redshirt and then some development time with an eye towards starting in years 3, 4, or 5. Could fill out to play linebacker or spinner.
|WHAT||Michigan v. Ohio State|
Feb 27th, 2010
|THE LINE||Michigan +12.5*|
*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.
When Last We Met
The Wolverines rebounded from a tough loss at Indiana to stun the #15 Buckeyes 73-64 in Crisler Arena. Ohio State was without Evan Turner, but the Wolverines' victory still stands as one of their (few) statement wins on the year.
The Buckeyes came out hot, with Jon Diebler bombing from long range and David Lighty getting to the basket in the first half. After they shot 59.6% eFG% from the floor in the first frame, however, MIchigan put on the clamps, holding them below 34.6% eFG% shooting after the break. Offensively, Michigan was led by DeShawn Sims, who scored 28 points on just 18 shots, and added 9 rebounds. Manny Harris finished with 24 points on 16 shot attempts.
Since Last We Met
The Buckeyes payed at a high level for most of the time they were without Turner, but since he's returned, they've been a top-notch team. Turner is making a serious case for National Player of the Year, so Michigan was lucky to face the Buckeyes without him last time. Ohio State has gone 12-3 since the MIchigan game, with one of those losses coming on the road against a tough West Virginia team.
Michigan, on the other hand... wel you know what's happened. They have been switching back and forth between encouraging wins (and even some encouraging losses) and soul-crushing defeats. With back-to-back losses against Penn State and Illinois, both of which were winnable, it remains to be seen whether this Wolverine team has just packed it in for next year, or if they're willing to show some fight in the last three games of the regular season.
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.
|Michigan v. Ohio State: National Ranks|
|Category||Michigan Rank||Penn State Rank||Advantage|
|Mich eFG% v. OSU Def eFG%||249||102||OO|
|Mich Def eFG% v. OSU eFG%||206||3||OOO|
|Mich TO% v. OSU Def TO%||9||66||M|
|Mich Def TO% v. OSU TO%||45||30||O|
|Mich OReb% v. OSU DReb%||276||41||OOO|
|Mich DReb% v. OSU OReb%||235||283||M|
|Mich FTR v. OSU Opp FTR||340||12||OOOO|
|Mich Opp FTR v. OSU FTR||11||211||MMM|
|Mich AdjO v. OSU AdjD||126||20||OO|
|Mich AdjD v. OSU AdjO||45||14||O|
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
I'll keep the comments brief, because I predict some serious pain in this game.
Michigan's ratings have been oscillating wildly all year. Currently, the offense looks as bad per game as it has in a while, but the defense has improved over the last couple games, despite losses to Illinois and Penn State. Ohio State, on the other hand, is excellent at just about everything. Michigan will have to play one of their best games of the year in order to come away with an upset.
Unfortunately, I just don't see that happening. Vegas likes the Buckeyes by 12.5 points, and Ken Pomeroy says they'll win by 12. Those numbers sound about right to me. The final margin could be a little closer than that (and certainly a lot further apart), but I don't see enough in this game to see a Michigan win being possible.