good luck with that
9/26/2008 – Michigan 27, Wisconsin 25 – 2-2, 1-0 Big Ten
I don't have to tell you it was ugly at first, but an illuminating example: at a couple points in the first half when the guy with the red hat was on the field various family members of mine stood up because we're natural standers frustrated by the usual decorum of our section.
A set of ancients crabbed at them to sit down despite, you know, the lack of anything to see other than a guy with a red hat standing on the field, and when this was finally annoying enough for someone to respond with the obvious riposte about the red hat a full-scale verbal confrontation ensued in which the crabs behind us simultaneously complained about how we were violating the stadium announcer's request to treat our fellow seatmates with respect and called my cousin "fatso."
I thought but did not say "I know you are wearing a hat that indicates you fought at the battle of Antietam but don't think I won't smash your skull into splinters."
At halftime, Michigan had 21 yards. I tried to hide from the sun and list all the things I would rather do than watch the second half.
At the beginning of the year we were all confronted by an unexpected cost imposed by the massive turnover in coaches and star players: Michigan seemed a little like laundry we wanted to win, and sucky laundry at that. They wore the wrong numbers and ran the wrong way and certainly played the wrong way and goddammit where was Mike Hart?
We know college football players not as people but as things that have transpired on the field. By the story arcs their careers trace out, tragedy or comedy. Without those—without even Lloyd Carr's story to fall back on—the first few games of the season were strangely numb. They lost to Utah? Okay. They lost by 18 to Notre Dame? Okay. You can go back and check the columns here: serenity reigned. That was born from detachment.
Johnny at RBUAS captured this sentiment perfectly:
Mike, Jake and Chad risked their dignity and only left with a little of it, but they came back in the first place by choice, because of something bigger. As for the guys that are still here, Trent and Jamison are mostly quiet and patient and had no place else to go. And no matter how jubilant and grateful Terrance might seem, he knew how much money could be made by coming back. I don’t hesitate to say that wins this year won’t be as satisfying as wins last year were. Not enough of these players have suffered yet.
Those people out there aren't Mike, Jake, and Chad but Threet and McGuffie (or Shaw or Minor or Brown or Grady) and I'm Not Sure Who The Left Tackle Is This Week.
But there is no better one-word description for the first half Saturday than "suffering," and Johnny Thompson is always going to be the guy who picked off Allan Evridge. Steven Threet could have four years of moments good and bad in him but I suspect to me he'll always be looking over his shoulder at Wisconsin safeties, just as shocked at what is transpiring as everyone else.
After it was over I did something I hadn't done since I was a kid making paper airplanes out of the free programs and throwing confetti* in the air whenever Michigan scored. I went down to the tunnel as the players exited the field and watched them go: Taylor boisterous, high fiving anyone he came across, Warren stoic, the Coner completely neutral until someone thumped his shoulder pads in congratulations. The only thing that betrayed Kevin Koger and his old man beard as an 18 year old, not an Antietam veteran, was the kid-on-Christmas-morning smile stretching from ear-to-ear. A blood-soaked band-aid hung from Thompson's chin, gamely sticking to a couple of hairs in his ragged beard. Barwis looked like he was stuck in a paint shaker.
These are no longer strangers. I know how they run, and they are mine. I wanted to say something to them, to wrap everything that had just transpired into a sentence and give it to them, to tell them about ashes and hope and the future. But nothing came.
After Brandon Minor's touchdown run I turned around to see what the crabs were thinking and perhaps to say something unkind. They had left at halftime.
This is what I should have said: "Those who stay will be champions."
- Thanks, karma! The entire crab sequence was awesome.
- Carson Butler got suspended and Mike Massey flailed around a bit before being replaced by Kevin "My Name Lacks An R" Koger, who proceeded to do nothing obviously wrong and then caught a seam route touchdown. If they're going to burn a redshirt, it might as well be for a 30-yard touchdown, and since he doesn't seem appreciably worse than either of the two nominal starters I say let it ride.
- This is what I am talking about with the "It's Great To Be A Michigan Wolverine" chant. It should be kept in reserve for Events.
- I'm sorry to have to be the one to tell you this, but if you booed the team you're an asshat. You wear asses for hats. Yes, you may have the purchased the right to boo your asshat-wearing heads off, but you are also taking your frustration out on a team that's obviously trying really hard but just kind of sucks from time to time. Booing the coaches is your excuse? Don't care, the players couldn't tell, and now they probably think we're all asshats because of you. You have a "right" to boo. You also have the right to give your grandmother the finger and call her a harlot.
- The block M in the student section was not epic fail but it did look a little squat from my vantage point.
- What is the point of replay if they aren't going to overturn that ridiculous Wisconsin "reception" in the fourth quarter? Even the Wisconsin fans in our section thought that was a terrible call.
- As I was walking home these guys behind me were having an extended conversation about how Rodriguez was dumb to go for two. One: they were wrong. Two: seriously? Seriously this is what you're focusing on instead of one of the best games in Michigan Stadium history? It must suck to be those guys.
- Those guys at the 1997 OSU game: "It should never have been that close."
- Those guys at the birth of their children: "he has a disappointingly shaped head, did you have to push so hard?"
- Those guys in the space machine vortex thingy from Contact: "you should have sent a poet. I'm just a guy who has no understanding of game theory. I'm not even enjoying this because I don't have someone belting out quatrains about these stupid galaxies."
*(Also made from the free programs. Those things are clutch when you're ten.)
Game column coming.
There's been a lot of debate in the aftermath of the Wisconsin game about whether or not Rodriguez made the right call after Johnny Thompson's interception return touchdown put Michigan up 20-19 with about ten minutes left.
The answer: absolutely, and it's not close. Let's break it down into three scenarios:
YOU GET TWO. Okay, you're up three, which means a field goal ties the game instead of winning it.
YOU GET ONE. Field goal means you lose. If you score another touchdown you have a likely-impregnable two score lead.
YOU GET ZERO. Field goal means you lose; if you score another touchdown Wisconsin can tie the game by scoring their own touchdown and going for two.
You can cancel a lot of stuff out because there are only two realistic scenarios in which the go-for-two situation is relevant: one UW field goal or a touchdown for each team and a Wisconsin two-point conversion. In all other cases outside of bizarroland, the decision doesn't matter.
At the time Rodriguez was trying to decide whether or not to go, Michigan had about 180 yards of total offense. Virtually all of that came on two inexplicable long touchdown drives; on Michigan's other ten drives they collected one first down and 31 total yards.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, had been gifted five first-half turnovers and largely squandered them. They had 248 yards of offense on 14 drives. They were averaging 18 yards every time they got the ball, and only had the points they did due to Michigan's largesse and a huge number of opportunities.
This was not exactly that 54-51 Northwestern game, where you were virtually guaranteed to see the opponent skate down the field and punch the ball in. This was a defensive slugfest between two teams heavily biased to the run, and it would take a highly unusual event like Dual Threet loping 60 yards with the Wisconsin secondary in tow to make the difference between one and zero even moderately relevant.
This is in fact what happened, but since Rich Rodriguez isn't the Kwisatz Haderach he didn't know what the future held in store and did the obvious thing: attempt to keep a field goal from beating you. Protesting that "you don't know what's going to happen" is weak sauce when you've got a pretty good idea that scenario A is far less likely than scenario B.
Anyone who disagrees is more than welcome to email me with invitations to high-stakes poker games.
I have no idea why this is happening in IE7:
Does anyone out there know? It disappears after you click around a bit. Please email me if you do; I've been looking at it forever and can't figure it out.
My suggestion to anyone getting this: click on a diary entry and then click back. I think that might work.
Update: a couple readers sent in fixes; I think this issue should be dead now.
If you're unfamiliar with the situation on these please check out the Live Blog Chaos Mitigation Post; action should get started around 3 PM.
Run Offense vs. Wisconsin
It took all of three games for the M-Den to start selling Sam McGuffie jerseys, and the off week has allowed Carlos Brown and Michael Shaw to get healthy. Could… maybe… good happen?
Against Notre Dame, Michigan alternated gashing runs with stuffed plays that were often mental errors on the part of various blockers. Notre Dame then ran out and ceded 200-some yards to Javon Ringer, but 63 of those were on a long carry late when Notre Dame was playing aggressively in the faint hope of getting the ball back on a three-and-out. Before that they had contained Ringer pretty well. They might not be completely atrocious on defense.
Wisconsin, however, is an entirely different ball of wax. This clip from the recently-posted Wisconsin scouting report is worrisome:
#91 [DT Jason Chapman] and #92 [DE Matt Shaughnessy] are their best players on defense. They are extremely quick off the ball and were very good at disrupting Fresno's zone running play. 91 is DT and just blew by people several times. He was also offsides two or three times, so I think we will get some easy 5 yard gains here and there. But Molk has got to be quick end get off the ball with power this week. This guy cannot spend the afternoon in Michigan's backfield or we will not be able to run the ball.
Michigan spent much of the ND game effectively doubling whichever DT was lined up to the playside, getting enough depth on their push to wash out pursuing linebackers. With Chapman appearing to be more of a penetrating, risk-taker sort there could be an enormous amount of variance in the effectiveness of run plays: when he loses his gamble he could run himself right out of the play or end up pancaked downfield; when he wins McGuffie is going to have to deal with a guy in his face far too often. Bruce Ciskie, meanwhile, is extremely concerned about Wisconsin's linebackers and their angles of pursuit. There appears to be some chance Michigan's run game functions decently.
However, I'm not super enthusiastic about that chance. In 2006—the year that Michigan's zone left was at maximum effectiveness—Wisconsin slashed into the Michigan backfield time and again and it was only the ineffable brilliance of Mike Hart that prevented a dozen TFLs. That was the same defensive philosophy and even some of the same players—Chapman and Shaughnessy have been around forever—Michigan will face tomorrow. Here's the UFR from that year:
Michigan spent around half of its first downs running into eight guys and another chunk running into seven from a three-wide set, which is functionally equivalent. Fully 20(!) of Michigan's 26 plays on first down were runs*, which is a big flashing sign that says "BAD OLD DAYS" to me. A big reason that Hart's YPC average to date is somewhat disappointing is his frequent deployment into obvious rush defenses. He's still doing his thing, but a combination of bad blocking and predictable playcalling means he's dodging tacklers at or before the line of scrimmage instead of three yards downfield.
The end result was a lot of plays where Hart turned something that should have been zero yards into four.
Can McGuffie do that? I don't know. I think he's much less likely to burrow forward for positive yards in bad situations and that Michigan will be facing a lot of long-yardage situations if he's dodging guys before he gets to the LOS.
This will be an interesting test for all sorts of Michigan-affiliated players: McGuffie and Shaw and various linemen going up against a tough Big Ten defense and Rodriguez and Magee, given a bye week with which to implement some counters, traps, and other plays that hope to play off of Wisconsin's tendency to aggression.
Key Matchup: I'm a broken record here, but: the interior line against Wisconsin's DTs. Michigan won this battle handily against Notre Dame and now takes up a more formidable foe.
Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin
Steven Threet's radical maturation into an honest to God quarterback gives Michigan hope for the future and a fighting chance going into Big Ten season. He's a freshman, though, and the rest of the year figures to be something of a roller-coaster.
Against Notre Dame, Darryl Stonum, Greg Mathews, and Martavious Odoms were the main options. Odoms got open consistently on wheel routes; Mathews dug out a number of tough balls and almost hauled in a spectacular touchdown; Stonum was the beneficiary of some attention paid to Odoms. All three seem like potential playmakers, and then there's the somewhat injured Junior Hemingway. There appears to be a lot of available talent in the WR corps if Threet can maintain his level of performance.
As far as Wisconsin goes: Michigan fans will be familiar with Detroiter Allen Langford, who's been decided average in his career to date. He is a senior with multiple years of starting under his belt, though, and will probably be at least all right. His bookend is not Jack Ikegwuonu by some other guy named Mario Goins. I don't think anyone really knows much about him yet, including Wisconsin.
Wisconsin year to date:
That's one okay performance, one great one, and one kinda-dodgy one. I think there's more raw ability in the Michigan skill players than there is in the Wisconsin secondary and if they run the right routes and Threet gets them the ball they can have some success. Wisconsin's pass rush hasn't been great and Michigan's pass blocking has been surprisingly good.
Also: with Wisconsin sticking to base sets most of the time, there should be some opportunity for Martavious Odoms to get loose on the perimeter.
Key Matchup: Odoms versus linebackers. Michigan has to make Wisconsin pay if they're going to stick in their base sets.
Run Defense vs. Wisconsin
Two weeks ago I wrote this in the Notre Dame preview:
The run defense is not as good as you might think it is, as the avalanche of sacks the team has unleashed distorts those numbers considerably. Miami’s lead back averaged 3.7 yards a carry and Utah’s main two guys combined for 94 yards on 21 carries, 4.5 per. That’s slightly harsh because both teams occasionally used their quarterbacks as runners and got stuffed doing it, but the point stands: this is not the country’s fourth-best rushing defense.
It's not like Michigan's rushing defense was a disaster against ND, but it wasn't exactly inspiring; Michigan performed on a par with SDSU and considerably worse than Michigan State. Time and again Johnny Thompson lost his battle with the fullback.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin is Wisconsin, the ultimate beef machine. Their linemen: large. Their tailbacks: large. Their fullback: large and actually named "Rentmeester." Their intent: to run straight. Their success so far:
Hey… that doesn't seem so imposing, especially when you consider there are no sacks in those numbers. Okay, so they smoked Akron but we're talking about Akron here, and if Michigan holds Wisconsin to 150-some yards on the ground they probably aren't racking up a million billion points against Warren and Trent and company. Well. Maybe they aren't.
I just don't see it, though. Notre Dame is not good at the smashmouth thing and did all right. Wisconsin is and projects to do better than all right. I'd be happy if Michigan turned in numbers comparable with Fresno State above.
Key Matchup: Ezeh and Thompson against the fullback. I bet Wisconsin follows the same tack Notre Dame does, doubling the hell out of the DTs and relying on the LBs to mess it up.
Pass Defense vs. Wisconsin
Allen Evridge tore it up against Marshall, completing 17 of 26 for a whopping 308 yards—11.8 YPA(!). Against Akron he was mostly a spectator (ten attempts) and against Fresno State he was thoroughly meh: 12 of 24 for 143 yards.
Of course, a hefty chunk of whatever struggles Evridge is having are due to the absence of all-universe tight end Travis Beckum. Beckum should be ready to terrorize Michigan linebackers on Saturday. In his absence Wisconsin's leading receiver is the other tight end (Garrett Graham), and their second-leading receiver is the other other tight end (Lance Kendricks), which kind of wraps up Wisconsin's offensive philosophy in a neat little bow.
The outside wideouts are Kyle Jefferson, a slow-ish guy but a rangy leaper dangerous on downfield jump balls, and little speedster David Gilreath. They have a total of eleven catches between them so far. No offense to either of those guys, but I don't think either is much of a worry.
Michigan's pass defense has been pretty good outside of the pair of HOLY GOD WHAT ARE YOU DOING errors the safeties turn in every game. Against Miami, Michigan got away with it. Against Utah and Notre Dame, not so much. Morgan Trent isn't great but he's solid. Donovan Warren is verging on avoid-at-all-costs territory, IMO.
The pass rush got shut out against Notre Dame largely because of some crazy max-protect sets and a big lead that allowed Notre Dame to forgo risk for the rest of the game; before that Michigan's defensive line had been murdering guys. They'll probably get back to that against Wisconsin's relatively lumbering line.
The big concern here is play action that fools the linebackers or safeties (or the linebackers and safeties) and gets tight ends wide open over the middle or one of the outside guys open deep. This should be a major advantage for Michigan if Wisconsin ends up in a long-yardage situation.
Key Matchup: Ezeh and Thompson and Mouton versus the tight end and the other tight end and the other other tight end, especially on play action. Also Brown. I expect a lot of robber zones from Michigan in an attempt to close down the inevitable gaps that will open up between the linebackers, who I guarantee will get sucked up on play action, and the safeties. This is tight end playground.
Wisconsin's kicker is pretty good, 4/5 on the year with his miss coming from beyond 50 yards.
Meanwhile, KC Lopata has been pretty good so far and Zoltan the Inconceivable has been excellent. Michigan's punting has been a huge net positive. Returns have been complete disaster; expect a rotation of punt and kick returners until they find someone who can run forward with the ball.
Key Matchup: Michigan returners versus HOLY GOD JUST CATCH THE BALL.
- Chapman slashes up into McGuffie right from the start.
- We don't see some improvement from the linebackers when they take on Wisconsin's fullbacks.
- Evil Threet returns.
Cackle with knowing glee if...
- Michigan busts out aggression-killing misdirection early and often.
- Success with Odoms forces Wisconsin to go to a nickel.
- Michigan feels it can play really aggressive with the safeties and gets away with it.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 8 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for We Are Unprepared To Stop The Beef Machine, +1 for This Is Probably A Much Better Team Than We've Faced So Far, –1 for But We've Got A Quarterback!, +1 for But What Are The Chances He Doesn't Screw Up?, +1 for I Hate These Matchups ).
Desperate need to win level: 7 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for The California Raisin Bowl Is Slipping Away, +1 for 1-3 Would Not Be Particularly Fun, –1 for But 2-2 Wouldn't Be That Much Funner, +1 for If We Win We Can Woo Rose Bowl Hope For Like A Week)
Loss will cause me to... cancel those hotel reservations in downtown Detroit.
Win will cause me to... woooooo Rose Bowl baby!
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
I don't think this is a good matchup for Michigan after watching Johnny Thompson get smoked by ND's fullback time and again. Wisconsin will have some success on the ground, suck up Michigan defenders, and then hit a long ball or three to Beckum or one of the outside guys; the rest of their yards they'll grind out on the ground. They'll probably get to the mid-to-high twenties.
Michigan, meanwhile, will probably get a reality check after the offense looked shockingly effective against Notre Dame. This is the kind of team that can make Michigan's patchwork offensive line look patchwork, and while I expect the offense won't revert to the ugly ways of the first couple games neither will it move up and down the field as smoothly as it did versus ND. A big play or two, one or two effective drives, and
This game isn't completely out of the question for Michigan as long as what we saw two weeks ago wasn't a mirage, but I think they have get one more big break than Wisconsin to win.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- Threet throws at least one ugly interception.
- The defensive line returns to its rampant ways in the pass rush.
- Wisconsin, 24-17.