gambling establishment etc
12:02: I know I condemn Michigan to a painful loss by doing this, but this was going to be a painful loss anyway. Lavin's just gotten off a zinger, publicly wondering if UCLA's loss to Cal means they have to look for a new coach.
The much-cracked on Nike hammerpants-muscle shirt combo is a letdown and only looks kind of ridiculous.
Michigan starts with a TO, defends well enough to get a miss, and then Jerrett Smith gets downcourt for a transition layup. A couple of possessions later, Ohio State gets the same thing. And hey, Abram did something, penetrating from the high post against the zone and getting a FG.
Lavin: "both teams sharper than yesterday." Astute to point out that while Michigan shot 29%, Ohio State shot 0% yesterday. He then praises Michigan's ball movement with Dion Harris 29 feet from the basket with 6 seconds on the shot clock. And then he hammers this "no one can shoot at the United Center" theory in... color me a skeptic.
Um, Smith just penetrated and challenged Oden for a tying layup, then he throws the ball away in the backcourt. OSU timeout; they lead 6-8.
12:10 PM. Zone out of the timeout leads to a wide open OSU three; down. Another Smith turnover; Harris charge. I would normally go "arrrrgh" here, but... uh... whatever. 6-11 at the first official break. These BW3's commercias are awful.
Lavin claims that Michigan -- on pace for 40 turnovers -- has come out well offensively. Sims picks up his second foul already, which is bad because no one else has the raw size to contend with Oden. Watching Udoh trying to check him is comical.
Petway gets a slam to cut the lead to five... Ron Coleman attempts to check in still in his warmups, and the PBP guy says "you expect that from a freshman, not a junior." Tom Izzo's guys all know how to dress by the time they're sophomores. (Unless... perhaps Coleman's trying to one-up the hammerpants?)
Anyway... the Michigan offense consists mostly of the usual: passing it around the perimeter until someone has to try futile penetration and put up a tough shot.
I feel robbed that that Terwilliger guy from OSU doesn't have Anderson Varejao's hair. I mean, seriously.
12:22 PM. Michigan is frickin' airballing and bricking all manner of good looks from three. The solution? Reed Baker, Rain Maker! Or maybe he'll just check in and not do anything... except nail a three! You can't stop him. Now 11-13... Lavin calls Ivan Harris a "hired gun," ummm Boban... Lavin is going nonstop about Michgian's "pluck" or whatever... Lavin talks about the UC's great hotdogs... would someone please frickin' hire this guy?
It's 12-16 with 9:05 left in the half; they're showing Matta's kids eating pizza and talking about his gum thing; Michigan throws the ball from the frontcourt all the way to the backcourt. I hate this team sometimes. Oden gets a putback on the weak side. Michigan's playing pretty well on D, actually. Another turnover leads to a fast break OSU basket and they're up 8. Sims gets another offensive rebound (Deshawn, that is) and gets an and-one after an Oden foul. 14-20 at the under-8 break.
12:32 PM. Our RPI went nowhere with the Minnesota win. Lavin again with the UCLA stuff: "it doesn't take much to get on the hotseat at UCLA." Michigan has eight offensive rebounds on just 10 missed shots. I can't believe we have only ten missed shots. I can't believe we've rebounded eight of those. I can believe we have enough turnovers to require scientific notation. (Ron Lewis with another professional jumper from just inside the three-point line against our zone; Abram responds with an Abram three.) Lavin: "there are some advantages to the zone." Butler jacks up a three a million miles for the line; Petway tough alley-oop catch and conversion! PBP guy compares Petway to Michael Jordan. Um, okay.
Oden is playing against a guy who's tiny compared to his leviathan torso and continually goes to those hooks. Not exactly bulling Michgian over. Teams exchange threes; C. Sims throws up an ugly shot that leads to an OSU fastbreak; Lavin breaks out "sharing the sugar" again. Athletic directors of the country: Steve Lavin is the greatest coach in the universe and you would be a fool not to hire him. Under four T0, OSU up 6.
12:41 PM. D. Sims knocks down a jumper from just inside the line with the shot clock dying. Ees nice. Harris missed 3; OREB; Harris gets an Oden foul and shoots two. Ohio State fans must be livid about their defensive rebounding in this game. Lavin compares Amaker to Bill Walsh and Tom Landry... is Wooden not enough? Loose ball foul on OSU leads to more free throws. Lavin STILL comparing stuff to football. D. Sims misses the first end of a one-and-one. :( Conley puts in a circus shot to finish the half. Bleah. Down 29-34 when it could have been one.
1:05 PM. Oden finally spins to the basket instead of relying on that hook. Woo... Smith dives for a loose ball and finds Sims underneath all alone. Oden hook is missed. Oden has committed like three fouls in the first two minutes of the half... he's not in the NBA yet, jackasses.
Dammit, I hate replay. Those were clean. Grumble how about an upfake, Courtney? 11th turnover of the game. Oden hits one of those hooks; lazy Harris pass is almost a TO... Harris airballs a wide open three... HOW IS THAT NOT A CHARGE? Petway misses a putback dunk. We're down ten now at the under-four break.
1:11 PM. After the TO we throw another sloppy pass that's nearly a turnover. Conley gets Moosed by Petway; Conley's dad has a good laugh about it. Cook 3; OSU shooting 55% to our 33% and has only turned the ball over twice. Abram gets an open three and knocks it down. Smith does the same on the next possession and it's back to six. We fail to box out -- Abram! you're like 100 years old -- and Cook goes to the line for two. Sims apparently got hit on the throat trying to get a rebound on an Udoh make. Lavin wonders if he has "a sensitive Adam's apple." Tim Hardaway hates Steve Lavin!
1:23 PM. We're down five again, by the way. This game has a "Playstation 2" game track, which is really weird. Playstation 3? Udoh picks up a cheap foul; OSU OREB; putback, missed Michigan FG; fastbreak layup; we're down nine; TO.
1:27 PM. Horrible shooting, horrible Smith turnover... charge on Cook. Only OSU's fourth turnover. Smith hits a 3. OSU has given up way, way too many open looks at three when they've got Oden inside and no real Michigan post threat. Looked like Oden got totally hacked; no call; Matta T. In the Big Ten, everyone gets sodomized sooner or later. Harris knocks down both FTs and Michigan is within 4 with the ball. Cheap perimeter foul on Butler sends Abram to the line for a one-and-one... which he misses. Fourth time in two games against OSU that we've missed the front end of a one-and-one. Sims picks up a bullcrap foul trying to check Oden. Big Ten refs are garbage. Hey, how about another nothing foul on a Michigan post? Okay!
Abram wide open three in transtion -- OSU is just not getting out on Michigan shooters -- and Michigan is now within three. This is why I question Matta somewhat: his teams often display evidence they're not very well coached. Witness the lackluster performances against PSU, the offensive rebounding today, the defensive shortcomings, the weird addiction to that press in the first game. It doesn't matter if you can recruit Oden and Conley, though -- and given OSU's classes down the road, Matta's recruting is no freak occurrence.
Oden and one again. Hurray. TO under 8, Michigan down five with an Oden FT coming.
1:40 PM. Is a 16-9 run really a run? Smith gets himself buried under the basket; TO. Oden inside for another bucket. Taking over. Lewis fouled, going to the line, after an ugly Michigan possession. OSU about
to put this one away. Lewis hits both and the lead is 10.
The NIKE uniforms do look pretty stupid. Wide open Conley three; lead 11 after some Harris FTs. It looks like OSU has duct tape on their shoulders. There's a weird little silver patch.
If you met Greg Oden on the street, how old would you think he is? Like... 800, right? You can't be that enormous and craggy without having hit your eighth century. OSU alley-oop.
Yeah, this game's over. We're down 11 with under five and have just turned it over again. So let's talk coaching.
Amaker should be fired. I wouldn't be opposed to him becoming the women's coach if keeping his wife around is really important, though.
What are the chances he is fired? I don't know. Detroit newspaper columnists keep writing things about how he definitely won't be but there are rumblings from within the program that he's in trouble. There are probably two warring camps, which we'll call "Camp Fire Amaker" and "Camp Crispy Pops."
The Crispy Pops people speak the language of dumb and are thus natural allies of Terry Foster and Drew Sharp. Of course they'll report Amaker's not going anywhere. It may even be true, but I don't think it's a given. Martin has backed off his previous statements and is engaging in careful AD-speak. Usually it's "we'll evaluate him after the season" -- Michigan turnover -- which is a far cry from the "we're joined at the hip" of a year ago -- helpful ESPN graphic shows he's made one NCAA tourney in 10 years as a coach.
So I'm saying there's a chance. Unless Bill Martin wants the worst attendance in a long, long time -- this year was already the worst since 1982 -- he has to make a change. And it's not like Michigan, which loses Harris, Abram, Sims, and Petway, is poised to improve next year. The backcourt is going to be freshmen and Smith. Our posts will be sophomores and freshmen. We have no one to play the wing, really. Unless Amaker proves he's a different coach than ten friggin' years indicates, that team's headed for the NIT, too.
The most realistic candidates are going to be mid-major guys. I suppose we can take a run at Mike Montgomery or a fired Tubby Smith, but this program is no longer at the level where it can get a Gillespie from A&M. So you're looking at a guy from Winthrop or Southern Illinois or somewhere in the MVC, most likely. Or Mike Debord.
72-62 final. NIT games coming up at Crisler; I suggest you show up as an empty seat.
Zone Gives, Zone Takes
This fall Michigan's run game took a radical departure from the pull-, iso-, and draw-heavy early 2000s. In the place of plays like "argh not another second and long draw," Michigan implemented an Iowa-like zone scheme. At first glance the results were encouraging: Michigan vaulted from 44th to 21st in total rushing. Yards per carry (discounting QB runs and kneeldowns) shot up from 4.3 to 4.9. This despite Michigan featuring an unbalanced offense that ran 56% of the time. So bully for all that.
But there was one major issue that our stretch-play-mad offense developed during 2006. UFR aficionados already know this deep in the marrow of their bones, but now I can put it in attractive graph format.
Here is the Michigan offense's third-down conversion rate by distance in 2005:
(How to read the above: the thick line is the NCAA average. The thinner line is Michigan's performance. You want this to be above the line for an offense; green is good.)
Poor performance on third and long was counterbalanced by a surprising competence on third and short.
Here is the same graph for 2006:
(Disclaimer: this data is sparse and may not breach the threshold of official statistical significance. I don't know. I'm not a statistician. I do know that this is all the data we have and that it can be useful when coupled with previous observation.)
It does not take a jeweler's eye to see that the graphs are near inverses of each other, even down to the weird aberration at third and 11-13. The improved performance on passing downs is easily explained by an improved receiving corps and quarterback. But the startling regression on short yardage is inexplicable given the improvement the zone brought to Michigan's running game.
Unless, that is, you watched Michigan roll out three wideouts and run a stretch play into nine penetrating guys far too many times. Which, uh, I did:
Why do we suck on third and short?
I dunno. We were actually really good last year, but it seems you put us in third and short this year and we run out three wideouts and run a stretch play into nine guys. This doesn't work so good, evidently. What's wrong with lining up in a big set and cramming it down their throats? We have the personnel for that sort of thing.
Hopefully, Michigan will identify this ugly tendency and stop actively trying to turn third and short into punts. In Michigan's transition year perhaps it made sense to focus on the stretch to the exclusion of all else, but now that we've established hadouken, we should try to work on some shoryuken for situations when the objective is closer at hand.
Remember 2005? (It's okay to say no.) Pat "Moonwalk" Massey and an occasionally interested Gabe Watson were the defensive tackles. David Harris and yuck were the linebackers. Alan Branch toiled out of position at defensive end. The short yardage numbers were ugly:
Yeah... not so much this year. Anyone doubting Alan Branch in even the slightest tiny way should look at this, tremble, and shut up:
You can see 6'6", 330 of angry New Mexican hauling the tail end of that graph down like a black hole in spacetime. That's Alan Branch. 33 percent! On third and one! Six of eighteen! SIX OF EIGHTEEN!
We are all going to miss last year's defense very much. Except for the secondary, which I fear I won't miss at all.
This post exists because the Blog That Yost Built posted on it first. Many thanks.
Kings fans are excited about Jack Johnson. They should be; dude is a can't miss first-pairing NHL defenseman who, freed of the NCAA anti-fighting strictures, is liable to lead the universe in penalty minutes. A propensity for enormous hits and a wicked shot that can be launched accurately from any awkward position Jack finds himself in complete the package. It's a beautiful thing. But... uh...
...Jack Mother Fucking Johnson:
... When the Kings fans discovered video evidence of the Dancing Official Dad of Jack Johnson, they dubbed him "Mr. MFJ."
So, uh, there you go. Enjoy what's probably the last few games of the JMFJ era.
(Two more years? One? Come on, Jack, you know you want to.)
I'm updating the third down stuff I did last year with 2006 data and have ran into some unexpected snafus, which I totally expected. Coming ASAP.
YouDump: Awesome video from the 1927 dedication of Michigan Stadium complete with old-timey "Henry Tappan Hall hasn't cheered so loud in 20 years!" silent movie dialog. Highly recommended:
Some history of the MMB (check the "related videos: for a million performances including Thriller complete with Thrillerdance):
Six and a half minutes of owning Sparty. Perfect "go cry, emo kid" music for any Spartan fans wishing to self-flagellate:
Um... some sort of puppet NYSNC thing at Michigan Stadium that makes no sense.
Jack Johnson nearly kills BC goalie Cory Schnieder:
Snaps back. I mentioned the Scoop-Whitlock-Simmons throwdown over the All Star Weekend, yes? Well, Simmons responded like whoah:
Once upon a time, the late Ralph Wiley repeatedly proved an African-American sports columnist could write intelligently about racial issues without using his skin color as a crutch. After Ralph passed away three years ago, Scoop Jackson vowed to carry Ralph's torch on Page 2.
I just wish he'd brought that torch to Vegas.
This is worth mentioning: Simmons has been very good of late. He's still Bill Simmons and that comes with some baggage (most notably from my perspective: a seething hatred for the Pistons), but he seem to have recaptured a portion of whatever he lost recently when the backlash began in earnest.
Moose loose, hide the paella. Or whatever the Portuguese equivalent is. Graham Brown is currently wrecking fools in the Portuguese basketball league. Two recent game reports:
The MVP of the round goes to Graham Brown (206-F/C-84, college: Michigan) of Lusitania, who made 22 points and grabbed 12 rebounds. A strong center in this LIga, performing a great season so far.
(All of that is very, very [sic], and "Round," as best I can tell, refers to a particular game date during which all teams play.) But wait, there's more:
The MVP of the round goes to LusitaniaÂ´s Graham Brown (206-F/C-84, college: Michigan), a "deja vu" situation. For the second time ina row Brown heÂ´s the best, this time he scores 19 points and grabs 11 boards.
Brown's "Lusitania" team (maybe Amaker can coach them next year... ZING!) appears to be third in the league at the moment.
Etc.: The NYT on NCAA
enforcement, which is increasingly outsourced to highly paid law firms.
Update: I've been notified that this is our punting Space Emperor's birthday. Two decades ago, Zoltan Mesko burst from Zeus's head fully formed, but his real age is as unfathomable as the stars. Congratulations to us all for not dying before this transpired.
Since the last time we took a detailed look at the Pairwise, Michigan split a pair at OSU and a bunch of other teams played a lot of games. Western fell out of TUCland; UNO and Lake State entered. Michigan's TUC record is now a mediocre 8-7-1 with a 1-1 record versus LSSU and a 2-0 record versus UNO hovering around the cliff. Northern, Michigan's opponent this weekend, is not a TUC.
- Denver. We're in a worse spot now that DU has drawn UW in the WCHA playoffs. If they sweep that series they'll win COP and probably move past us in RPI.
- Maine. [Last time: a solid comparison we lost.] Maine did cough it up against UMass, getting swept, and that was enough to flip the comparison... but only by a tiny amount. RPI is virtually tied. They win COP and we have a fair edge in TUC. Maine's first round playoff series is against the same UMass team that just swept them; if they win the series they'll probably take the comparison at year's end. If they lose it's ours.
- Miami. [Last time: a tossup we lost.] Margins are razor-thin everywhere. Whoever finishes better in the CCHA tournament will win the comparison. If one team wins the consolation game while the other loses the championship game, Miami probably takes the comparison.
- Colorado College. Status quo: decent RPI edge and unassailable in COP. We'd have to lose our series versus Northern for them to flip the comparison with a long WCHA playoff run.
- Michigan State. [was: tossup we won.] We now have a big COP edge and a medium RPI one. If we beat Northern, State will have a hard time passing us even with a H2H win.
- Dartmouth. Don't think there's any way for them to flip the comparison unless they win the ECAC and we lose to Northern.
- St. Lawrence. TUC is now very tight, but we win COP and have a 0.1 RPI edge.
Locks: LSSU, UNO, MSU-Mankato, Cornell, [was: solid win]. Wisconsin, Michigan Tech, Vermont. [was: solid win], UMass.
- North Dakota. NoDak's in a weird situation: their first round opponent, MSU-Mankato, currently sits #23 in RPI. If they sweep Mankato it's likely they'll no longer be a TUC; the Sioux are 3-0-1 against Mankato this year. Even if they lose the Screamin' Eagles, they'll still be ahead of us in TUC, but we win COP and RPI is pretty tight.
- Boston College. [last time: tossup we lost]. They made up a lot of ground by sweeping UNH.
- Boston University. If they lose their series against Vermont we can pass them. Otherwise they'll be ahead of us.
- Clarkson. [last time: lock we lost... guess not.] We own COP, they have a sizable edge in RPI. TUC could get interesting. If LSSU drops out and Clarkson loses to a TUC in the ECAC tournament, we could pass them with a CCHA championship. It's a longshot but just possible enough.
Locks: SCSU, [was solid loss]. Minnesota, Notre Dame, UNH.
Our position has improved. A couple teams have moved into the Lock Win category, Maine is now in a dead heat with us, and Michigan State is now significantly behind us. Only the BC sweep of UNH damaged any of our comparisons.
With our OSU split things are basically the status quo: we are locked into the 7-12 range. Denver gacked it up against CC last weekend and fell to 10th, which significantly reduces the chances we'll get paired with them in Denver, but we're now 9th and staring down a bracket featuring Minnesota. There's a tremendous amount of jitter in the PWR and things will change enough between now and the tourney selection that it's not worth getting exercised about yet, though. One thing that does seem likely: a bid in Grand Rapids. Most brackets I see from educated prognosticators give GR attendance the benefit of the doubt and put Michigan there whenever possible. Since Notre Dame is within driving distance of GR, there's also some sentiment to put the Irish there. No offense to ND, but as a relatively untested #1 seed who caught us when Billy Sauer was at his nadir and minus Cogs and Jack, I'd rather see them than any other potential #1.