For those who are new around here, I chronicle the high school exploits of Michigan commitments over the course of their seasons in Friday Night Lights. It includes statistical recaps, game stories, and even some original video. Here's a primer on the offensive side of the ball.
|Lake Nona Schedule 2010|
|9-10||7:00||@ Lake Placid|
|9-17||7:00||Palm Bay Heritage|
|9-24||7:30||@ Lake Wales|
|10-29||7:30||@ Winter Haven|
Lake Nona, FL
Lake Nona High School
HS position: quarterback
Projects as: quarterback
Lake Nona had a rough inaugural season of high school ball, winning a single game on their way to a 1-9 record. Their only victory came over fellow 1-9 squad Celebration. That's understandable in their first season, one without many (or possibly any) seniors on the team as well. Sousa passed for 1346 yards and eight TDs, while rushing for 916 yards and an another five scores.
In year two of Lake Nona's existence, there's a good chance that they take a leap forward. Just like year two of a coaching change, the players are used to the coaches now (and are even used to each other, after coming from different high schools as sophomores and younger). Sousa will also be in his third year of football after growing up a soccer player. Lake Nona has added some talent as well, including RB Jarius Pace, so Sousa won't have to be a one-man show. That should mean more openings and better stats for him. I think Sousa has a chance to improve his rankings (currently a consensus 3-star) with a good year statistically.
I won't be able to catch any of Sousa's games live, but plan to follow his progress this year very closely.
|Birmingham Seaholm Schedule 2010|
|9-2||7:00||Bloomfield Hills Andover|
|9-10||7:00||@ Bloomfield Hills Lahser|
|9-16||7:00||Detroit Country Day|
|9-24||7:00||Auburn Hills Avondale|
|10-1||7:00||@ Hazel Park|
|10-22||7:00||@ Birgmingham Groves|
Seaholm High School
HS postion: wide receiver/safety
Projects as: wide receiver
Last year, Seaholm started the season by losing their first six games, before rebounding to finish with a 3-6 record. They missed the state playoffs, though they typically make it into the state tournament. Their quarterback issues prevented Conway from racking up gaudy stats. He finished the year with 79 receptions for about 800 yards with ten touchdowns.
Seaholm should be improved this year as Conway has the opportunity to star in his senior season, and their coach is on record expecting to win the league. Mick McCabe calls Conway the #17 player in the state of Michigan, and notes that his size/speed combo makes him a tough matchup. Still, unless Seaholm's quarterback situation get much better, he might not rack up serious stats. The lack of numbers will likely prevent Conway from seeing his ratings improve.
Seaholm is close enough to Ann Arbor that I should be able to make it out to a couple of Conway's games this year.
|Traverse City West Schedule 2010|
|10-2||6:00||@ Dearborn Edsel Ford|
|10-22||7:00||@ Traverse City Central|
Traverse City, MI
TC West High School
HS position: tight end/defensive end
Projects as: offensive tackle
Last season, Traverse City West went 4-5 in the regular season, missing out on the state playoffs. They run an option-based ground attack. Fisher played primarily tight end and defensive end for the Titans, accumulating 10 receptions (out of only 38 for his entire team) for 185 yards and a touchdown on offense, with four tackles for loss on D.
This season, Fisher will remain at tight end, though he's added plenty of size in the offseason (three inches and 20some pounds), so he might be more of a mauler up front and slightly less of a receiving threat. The TC West coach is dropping platitudes about character being important, so the team probably won't be that good. They received just one out of about 100 first-place votes for conference champions among local media. Since Fisher's still playing out of position in high school, he probably won't see his ratings get that much better.
I might get a chance to check out one or two of Fisher's games this year, but probably not.
|St. John's Jesuit Schedule 2010|
|9-4||1:30||@ Birmingham (MI) Brother Rice|
|9-24||7:00||@ Toledo Whitmer|
|10-22||7:00||@ Toledo Waite|
|10-29||7:00||@ Toledo Central Catholic|
St. John's Jesuit High School
HS position: defensive end/guard
Projects as: center
Last year, St. John's Jesuit went 6-4, but that wasn't good enough for them to make the state playoffs. The season included a heartbreaking 6-7 loss to crosstown rival Toledo St. Francis DeSales. [Update: your editor got confused by St. Francis DeSales claimed that was where Omameh and Rock were from; they're from Columbus. Not Tim's error.] Miller had 12 sacks for his team, but obviously didn't accrue any stats as an offensive lineman.
St. John's Jesuit is in their final year of the City League, and will be competing in a new conference by next season, so this is their Nebraska-like last chance to win. Miller will play on both sides of the ball for his team. The recruiting sites can't even agree on what position Miller will play, so if he excels on the offensive line this year, he could see his ratings move up a bit.
I should have a couple opportunities to see Miller play in person (including tonight! Follow me on Twitter @varsityblue for updates) and plan to take some original mgoblog video.
|Tampa Plant Schedule 2010|
|8-27||7:00||@ Manatee (ESPNU)|
|9-3||7:30||@ Tampa Bay Tech|
|9-16||7:00||@ Abilene, TX|
Plant High School
HS position: offensive tackle
Projects as: offensive guard/tackle
Last year, Plant was loaded, running up a 13-1 record and winning the Florida Class 5A State Championship. Posada was key a member of a line that racked up 2945 team rushing yards.
Plant is still loaded in 2010, with RB James Wilder and QB Phillip Ely committed to big time programs (Florida State and Alabama, respectively). They're the odds-on favorite to win a third consecutive state title. Posada should once again be a bookend for the line. With the amount of exposure that Plant gets, Posada will have to show some improvement in technique (and an ability to keep his weight down) if he wants to see his rankings move up.
I won't be able to see Tony play in person, however his team will be playing Manatee this Friday in a rematch of the 2009 state title game. The matchup will air on ESPNU.
Notes from Coach Rod's Wednesday presser.
The QB battle is close. The coaches haven't been able to taper down who gets snaps. As long as they get better every day, you can be pleased with the progress. Everybody is too worried about who the starting QB is. The second team gets almost as many reps as the first team.
Any of the three are capable of starting right now, but he wants them to play at a high level. "If they're able to do that and execute the offense, then all three will play." Will keep QB choice quiet for competitive reasons. QBs will know Friday night (before game). Nobody else will know until kickoff at 3:36 Saturday.
No particular RB (or two) has stepped to the forefront. The position gets banged up in camp, which limits development. "We have some talent there, we'll be OK." The top 2-3 guys will play. Certain guys run certain plays better, so they'll get in the game for that play.
Fitzgerald Toussaint practiced yesterday, but not today. He's had a neck stinger, now his knee is sore. He'll be banged up a couple days, but might practice friday. Michael Shaw is still taking "the class," working hard at it. He's been spending half of his time practicing, and half of his time studying.
The offensive line is "not set as far as starters, but I think set as far as, you know who the 8-9-10 guys that are gonna be in the rotation will be." RR feels better about up front than the past couple years. He would like to play at least 8 offensive linemen (5 starters, backup C, G, T), depending on how they're performing and the tempo of the game. He would love to have two whole groups at line.
Improvement on defense has to come from several places. One guy can't replace Brandon Graham by himself. "The thing I probably feel the best about our defense is that we have a bigger pool of guys I think are going to be playing. That's going to allow us to have a little more depth, do a few more things defensively." If a couple guys (Mike Martin, Jonas Mouton, and JT Floyd in particular) have a big year, it'll offset some of the losses.
Will Campbell wasn't in great shape when camp started. He's been playing himself into shape. Mike Martin and Adam Patterson are at NG, "if he wants to play he's gotta compete." Rodriguez wants senior Sagesse, Banks, and Patterson, to have their best years. They're having good camps. "Of course you've got Mike Martin up front too who's had an outstanding camp. I think he can have a great year at noseguard for us."
Moundros may be the starter at middle linebacker. Right now he's taking a lot of reps. Mark has at least seen the field, which gives him experience (even if it's at a different position). He has intangibles. He needs to learn technique and system, but he was able to do that mostly in the spring. He's made very few mental errors for being new to the position.
There are some potential answers in the secondary. "Coming from freshman class. "It's kind of scary when you think about true freshmen playing in the secondary, but there's some talent there." They're progressing well now that summer class is over and they can focus on football. 4-5 true freshman DBs will play this year.
Cam Gordon - "He didn't play as well as he had played in any other practice in the scrimmage," but he's had a good camp and the staff feels good about him.
JT Floyd will start at corner on one side. Other corner might be Jame Rogers, "this is the best football he's played," or young guys. Have to keep it simple for the youngsters.
Nothing's new at kicker; it's inconsistent day-to-day. Most days have been encouraging - yesterday was not one of those days. They've been practicing on the new turf in the stadium. It's unlikely that different kickers will be used depending on distance of the kick.
Yesterday was a scrimmage. The last three quarters of practice, only players, officials, and Rodriguez were on the field. Did every special team and offense v. defense. "Glad we did it, but we've gotta do it again." They'll do it again friday, less intense, and maybe a little tomorrow. "With so many young guys, especially on defense playing, we've gotta try to get them used to what it's going to be like in a game where there aren't coaches standing behind them or on the side of them telling them what to do." It's a different atmosphere then practice, with signaling plays, etc.
Troy Woolfolk had surgery yesterday. "Everything went well with the surgery. Certainly it looks like he's lost for the season." No reason why he can't be 100% next year, and Rodriguez thinks he wants to come back for a 5th year. "It's his decision, of course, but Troy loves football."
Have a good grasp on what the team can do. "Certainly offensively, we have a pretty good idea of where our strengths are. And I think defensively too, even with the young guys, it probably takes them a little bit longer to determine a young guy because they have not done it in a game." Some guys plays better in a game, some play too nervous.
Started installing for UConn at the beginning of camp. "Starting really yesterday, and certainly today, and a lot tomorrow and Friday, will be a lot of UConn installation in all three phases."
Quotes from some of Michigan's players at Sunday's Media Day.
"I wish [Troy Woolfolk] a speedy recovery, man. That was like my best friend. I looked across there and that was my man." Woolfolk has encouraged Floyd to keep his head up, and work to make the secondary as good as possible.
Floyd hasn't had to step up his leadership with Woolfolk going out. He's always been a high-energy guy, and will continue to be that way.
Floyd is excited for the opportunity to be the team's top corner. "Personally, I've worked hard for a very long time. I put a lot of time in this summer to work to get better. I just ready for the opportunity to really show what I can do."
Floyd had never played corner until he got to Michigan (he was always a safety in high school). He's now had two years at the position, and knows what to expect and how to prepare.
Stonum's biggest improvement this off-season has been in ball skills. He was already running good routes, had good speed, and was recognizing coverages. He just needed to catch the ball when it showed up. Contact lenses have helped with that, as did working hard individually this summer.
Stonum tried to get a little bit bigger, because he takes a lot of hits with kickoff returns and receiver duty. The team worked hard this summer to get into shape.
The whole wide receiver crew has worked hard to show that they can be the #1 guy. The competition makes everyone better, and makes the team better.
Spending a couple days in jail this summer was a learning experience. It's in the past, and it's something Darryl can look back at, making sure something like it doesn't happen again. Darryl, the coaches, and his family talked about it together, and made the best out of a bad situation.
Darryl and Junior Hemingway take a leadership role among the wide receivers. They're trying to show the younger guys the ropes. "Everybody's a leader. If you're doing what you're supposed to do, and you're someone that your teammate can look at and be like 'he's doing the right thing, he's doing what he's supposed to do' then you're a leader."
"Last year, I thought I was just going to play a role in the defense. I had no idea I was going to start." He didn't find out until Friday before the first game.
On whether there's more pressure to win this season: "More pressure? Nawww. We're at Michigan. We've always got pressure." The team just needs to go out there and play their hardest.
One of the reasons Roundtree came to Michigan is that he loves the tradition and academics (subtle Purdue dig?).
Even when he wasn't a big contributor last year, Roundtree was practicing hard every day. When he finally got his chance, he showed everyone that he had been working hard. "Now that I am almost like the head of the offensive corps, I still work my tail off and still the same things I did last year when I wasn't starting are the same things I'm doing now."
At first, Smith was a little worried about how his knee would hold up in practice. Now, "I'm just going out there to compete and just make it better and better every day." He's now feeling comfortable, and there's no pain in his knee.
Smith was never worried that his knee would never be the same. His lateral quickness means a lot to his game.
"It was pretty tough just going out there and seeing them playing" this spring, when he was held out of practice.
Everybody looked at Smith's size and height coming out of high school as negatives. Michigan saw more though, in his passion for football.
Despite Smith's size, he's more than just a third-down back. He's been preparing to be an every-down guy. He's gotten bigger and worked on the mental game this summer.
Michael Cox and Michael Shaw
Cox: "We've got a real good relationship with Coach J [Fred Jackson], we just gotta do what he asks us to do, and he'll be happy with us."
Shaw: "[Jackson] definitely knows what he's talking about. No question about it. Everything he says, you've gotta listen to it." The coaches have to be brutally honest in their constructive criticism, because that's the only way you'll get better and win football games.
Cox: The different backs give defenses more to prepare for. They can change up in the game and exploit different weaknesses.
Shaw: "I'm not gonna try to run over linebackers, but if Cox wants to do that - look at him - he's definitely a good fit for the job." Having a variety of roles for the running backs makes it better, because you can bring in a fresh pair of legs with no dropoff.
Rogers started the spring game with the ones, because Troy had just gone down with a finger injury. When that happened (and when Troy injured his ankle a week ago), Rogers knew he had to step up.
"I'm just here to play. I'm here to do whatever the team needs. I just get out here and I try to work hard every day." He can't worry about depth chart positions.
Rogers came in as a receiver, but told the coaches he was willing to switch positions to help the team as soon as he arrived in Ann Arbor. He's bounced around since.
Rogers is trying to prepare the young guys, and be a leader. Now that Woolfolk is out, he''ll have to step it up even further.
Woolfolk is a loose leader, and it helps calm down the players so they don't get too serious. Rogers's leadership style might not be the same.
Right: Goulet approves.
When I mentioned that the Big Ten had given the go-ahead for bands to be amplified, I mentioned off-hand that I didn't expect it would amount to much. During last year's period of complaining alternately about the band's addiction to opera and the horrible piped-in music that inagurated the "special k make michigan stadium wicked sweet dawg" tag a couple of different emailers identified themselves as sound professionals and said that amplifying a marching band in a stadium was a difficult project not likely to be undertaken.
Michigan is undertaking it, however. Michael Haithcock, the director of bands, emailed me to give the current status of the band "in an effort to avoid the uninformed opinions that so often characterize comments regarding the MMB." This is that status:
- Big Ten AD's voted to approve the change in conference rules several months ago.
- Prior to the vote and since the decision became final, MMB faculty and athletic personnel have been working with highly qualified sound engineers to design a system workable for the MMB and Big House.
- The goal is to enhance the natural sound of the MMB and disperse it evenly throughout the stadium not to make it sound electronic or "canned".
- Time will be devoted to working toward this sound goal for the MMB during upcoming stadium rehearsals the week prior to the UConn game.
- Assuming the technology meets the goal of enhancement, the sound system will be in place for the first game although some "tweaking" may prove to be necessary going forward. Please be patient as we work to get it right in a situation that can only be created on game days.
- Acoustical studies of the new facility scientifically show that the overall sound is louder but individual components of the sound are less distinct due to the "roar" of clashing sound vibrations. Therefore, it is harder to hear the band without this enhancement.
- Moving the band into the north end zone is under discussion for future years but is not as easy a transition as first thought. We need to see how this new system works and how the rule change plays out before acting on the cost associated with making such a move.
- The SEC allowed a similar type of amplification for two years but voted to rescind the rule due to numerous problems. Coaches led the move to rescind the rule. This is unchartered territory in most conferences.
- The purported divide of "quality" of sound versus "quantity" of sound is really an non-issue for acoustical reasons to numerous to elaborate. Good blog fodder, but nothing real to be gained in the dialogue.
Director of Bands
University of Michigan
Anything that makes the band audible everywhere in the stadium is welcome, especially if it means Special K and his iPod filled with 40,000 copies of "Here Comes the Boom" are put in a cannon and shot to East Lansing where they belong. Hopefully it works out.
My final entry for the preseason blogpoll.
A few responses to comments left for the draft ballot (and yes, a lot of them were legit comments related to the fact that I hastily assembled the draft).
USC is eligible for the blogpoll (to the best of my knowledge), but I made a conscious decision to exclude them. If they earn it over the course of the year, I'm not sure whether I'll rank them or not.
As for Oregon, the QB they plug in for Masoli should have at least some experience (Darron Thomas started part of 2007 after Jeremiah Masoli went down, redshirted 2008 and played backup last year, and Nate Costa is a 5th-year senior with some starting experience of his own). Plus, aside from the first game of last year, Chip Kelly's offense has rolled along, regardless of personnel.
I dropped Penn State way down, as I'm as down on them as anyone else coming into the year, but went with the familiar when scrambling to complete the ballot.
As for Alabama not being #1, I'm not a believer in "you stay at the top until you lose." They lost so much on defense, that even returning a running back with a Heisman (that he may or may not have deserved) can't overcome it.
I reserve the right to seriously backtrack on North Carolina if they end up losing players to eligibility problems. As of now, their defense is positively rockin', and as long as the offense doesn't screw everything up, they should be pretty good.
Bumped out Nevada, because their defense has been pretty bad. Still love Colin Kaepernick though. That made room at the end of the ballot for West Virginia.
The rest of the stuff is just minor shuffling. Feel free to comment on this ballot as well, so I can continue refining. Don't take it too seriously, of course, as preseason polls are a futile endeavor.
Back in April, I wrote a diary called Blue Moon in my Eye in which I developed a regression model that could be used to develop a projected win total assuming that reasonable estimates had been used as inputs. At the time I thought that the team would be capable of winning at least seven, probably eight, and maybe even nine out of thirteen games this season. Since then, things have, uh, how do you say … changed. With the loss of Woolfolk, how do those numbers change?
The New Blue Moon
Before I get to that, there’s a good reason to update the model. In April, I mentioned that turnover margin is meaningful factor in regard to outcomes, but I lacked enough data to break it out specifically and therefore decided to leave it as a lumped parameter; turnovers were doomed to fade into the ether that is Intercept. No more, the NCAA has finally included turnover data in its database and now there is enough data to mix into the model. The new model has an improved R-squared value (0.752 as improved from 0.675) using just three end-of-year factors: offensive yards per game, defensive yards per game, and total turnover margin. Last time I didn’t include the model because it was mine, my own, my … preciousss. That was incredibly lame and nerdy (both with holding the coefficients and referencing LOTR) but we’re talking stats here so no one should be surprised. Another reason for divulging the goods is, now that there are four dimensions, a chart would be useless. Behold, the Blue Moon Model coefficients:
- I left the P-Values in there for those who know what that is. For the rest of you, it suffices to say what I said last time: that ish be money, yo.
- The second column (Normalized Coefficients) is there to demonstrate the relative importance of each factor; in short, defense is a skosh more influential than offense and turnover margin is a little over half as important as both.
- The use of the model (first column) is simple, start with the intercept then multiply the other the coefficients with their interrogation values and add everything together. Use it to gamble at your own peril. Until such a time as you can accurately predict end of year stats for these categories, the model is only good for using as a platform to base sophisticated guesses off of.
Probable influential factors that are embedded in the 25% of the variation not explained by the model (1 – R_squared) are:
- Return Teams effectiveness. Good return teams will establish good field position thus reducing OffYds/G.
- Coverage Teams effectiveness. Bad units will allow the other team to establish good field position thereby reducing DefYds/G.
- Field Goal Kicking effectiveness. If you get into field goal position and miss, you’ll have a lot of yards but nothing to show for them.
- Penalties. Penalty yardage will increase/decrease your production depending on if they’re called on you or them but doesn’t necessarily change how effective each team is at controlling field position.
- In round terms, factor influence on winning percentage breaks down to 30% Offense, 30% Defense, 15% Turnover Margin, and 25% Other Things.
Shine Down on the Big Ten (and it’s self-absorbed neighbor)
Below is 2009 Big Ten Data and Blue Moon Model expectation (BMM Expect).
|Team||OffYds/G||DefYds/G||TrnOvrMgn_Tot||2009 Wins||BMM Expect.||Delta Wins|