i like 'em both
Brown, a sophomore from Franklin, Ga., broke his hand in practice this week and is expected to have surgery today.
"He's really disappointed," said Tim Barron, Brown's high school coach at Franklin Heard County. "But he's very upbeat."
There's no timetable given for his return, but a broken hand doesn't seem like a season-ending injury if past experiences -- like Tim Massaquoi's -- are any indication. (Hopefully the coaches won't start Brown and throw him three balls a game he understandably drops.) He might be okay for a midseason return.
As far as impact: Michigan is now frighteningly thin at tailback. Hart and Minor are one and two; true freshman Avery Horn is now the only other healthy tailback on the roster. Hart's been an adamantium workhorse two of his three seasons but was a frustrated observer for large sections of the Year of Infinite Pain. He's not indestructible. Also damaged: Michigan's prospects for an interesting return game. Brown was thought to be the frontrunner at KR and possibly PR; now Doug Dutch, Greg Mathews, and an array of true freshmen will duke it out. Hopefully Dutch can grab the job -- no offense to Mathews, but I didn't want to see Jason Avant return punts either.
There is the possibility of a redshirt here, which would probably be good for class balance purposes. Grady's enforced redshirt with his own medical issue has created a knot of three backs who will have junior eligibility next year. It would be good to get Brown an extra year so that the turnover isn't so great after '08. A lack of depth could nix that, however. Kevin Grady's rehab also becomes more important in case there are late-season injuries to Minor and/or Hart.
Wheeeeee. I was hoping someone would put this on youtube, and the internets have come through. I posted pictures of Sam McGuffie leaping over buddy/future hated rival JB Shugarts; this is video:
Oh, I hope he lives up to the hype.
Legal arrghdate. The AA News provided more detail on the Ezeh and Savoy issues a couple days ago. Ezeh's OWI happened in May and has already been dealt with internally. It shouldn't affect his status as he battles for the starting MLB spot. Meanwhile, Savoy's lawyer, Nick "Counterpunt" Roumel, -- busy summer for Counterpunt, eh? -- says his arrest is No Big Deal:
According to university police, a 21-year-old Ann Arbor woman was inside the stadium at about 7 p.m. when a man she knew, Savoy, unzipped his pants and exposed himself. Savoy pleaded not guilty to the charge, according to court records.
His attorney, Nicholas Roumel, said the exposure was accidental.
"In order for this to be a crime, this has to be done knowingly,'' Roumel said. "I get the impression he just forgot to zip up his fly.''
Uh... that seems pretty dubious justification right there. Savoy isn't practicing with the team.
Le sigh. Notre Dame had a (semi-?) open practice a few days ago, which is something I wish Michigan would do but doesn't. Anyway, there are some reports both amateur and professional. The recurring themes from the fans:
- Jimmah is trailing in the QB race and his arm may still be damaged or healing.
I personally think it looks like a race between Sharpley and Jones.
CW has got to be couching Clausen in an open practice. He threw 2 screens and only a couple of other mid-range passes. Even if CW does decide to not start Clausen or redshirt him, I think that Sharpley showed enough tools to be the starter, at least in practice today.
From what I saw today, Sharpley is the best passer of the group. From what I saw, I expect him to start against Georgia Tech. While Jones does bring a "playmaking" ability, there is a dropoff in passing ability from Sharpley to Jones.
After watching Clausen I don't think he is at full strength. When throwing warm up passes he seems to shake his right elbow out after most throws.
If Clausen's arm isn't head and shoulders above Sharpley's, a guy who Michigan totally ignored, there's got to be something wrong with his arm still. Or he was just massively overhyped.
Weis is all over it as a perfectionist. Leadership is his strong suit. He even lit up an on-field security guard near us for not wearing a specific hat, as had apparently been agreed before.
The rest is stuff that's of questionable validity in an intrasquad session. Is the OL good or the DL bad? Or vice versa? Etc. It does sound like there's no clear leader at RB, FWIW. My favorite part was the headline on the SBT article: "Can Weis shock world again?" Um... remind me what the previous world-shocking was... a win over a 7-5 Michigan team?
Etc.: Braves & Birds has its annual "Charles Rogers Theorem" post, which is one of my favorite pieces that leads into each season. Georgia gets red-flagged; Penn State gets a yellow; The Cal Scout site eviscerates the nonsense Harbaugh's been talking about the Bears; Peabody, a former student manager at Michigan, gives his perspective on the academic emphasis of the program at MATW; Drew Henson's still hanging on.
If you were looking for a brief summary of the last thirty years of Spartan football, 2006 was your lucky year. It had everything you could want: a bizarre upset and collapse all wrapped up in one package against Notre Dame, a 35-point comeback against Northwestern just when you thought they were dead, a crushing at the hands of Michigan, an incredible -- in the "this is too strange to possibly believe" sense -- talk radio meltdown by Mike Valenti, an unexpected victory over what seemed a quality opponent (Pittsburgh), and a complete and total rival-inspired meltdown that submarined both their season and their coach's career. It had just the right mix of burgeoning hope with soul-mangling incompetence, the right mix of surprising success with surprising failure, the right mix of Duffy Daughterty with Bobby Williams. Michigan State's porridge is never too hot, never too cold, always just mediocre. On a micro level MSU is completely unpredictable week-to-week. On a macro level it's always Same Old Spartans.
You may recognize the above from previous efforts:
If you were looking for a brief summary of the last thirty years of Spartan football, 2005 was your lucky year. It had everything you could want: a humiliating 35-point loss to Northwestern, heartbreak at the hands of Michigan, an incredible -- in the "this is too strange to possibly believe" sense -- special teams meltdown against an OSU team they should have beat, an unexpected victory over a quality opponent (Notre Dame), and a final collapse that prevented Michigan State from going to a bowl game -- one that involved a loss to Purdue and a 41-18 waxing at the hands of Minnesota. It had just the right mix of burgeoning hope with soul-mangling incompetence, the right mix of surprising success with surprising failure, the right mix of Duffy Daughterty with Bobby Williams. Michigan State's porridge is never too hot, never too cold, always just mediocre. On a micro level MSU is completely unpredictable week-to-week. On a macro level it's always Same Old Spartans.
And if you are the type of MGoBlog reader I need to consider a restraining order against, you recognize the previous paragraph as a near-doppleganger of last year's Spartan intro:
If you were looking for a brief summary of the last thirty years of Spartan football, 2004 was your lucky year. It had everything you could want: a loss to Rutgers, heartbreak at the hands of Michigan, two totally unexpected crushings of quality opponents (51-17 over Minnesota and 49-14 over Wisconsin), and a final collapse that prevented Michigan State from going to a bowl game--one that involved giving up 37 points to one of the worst offenses in the nation and a late-game implosion against Hawaii. It had just the right mix of burgeoning hope with soul-mangling incompetence, the right mix of surprising success with surprising failure, the right mix of Duffy Daughterty with Bobby Williams. Michigan State's porridge is never too hot, never too cold, always just mediocre. On a micro level MSU is completely unpredictable week-to-week. On a macro level it's always Same Old Spartans.
And thus ends the John L Smith era. A pity, but his death spiral provided recompense in plenty. It started in 2005, when Michigan State planted the flag at Notre Dame Stadium.
There was the halftime meltdown against Ohio State.
There was the loser vigil at midfield after last year's implosion for the ages against Notre Dame.
There was the mini-brawl after the Illinois loss that, yes, involved a flag planting.
And then there was the grand bull-moose of ridiculous public display.
Yeah... about that. Unsurprisingly but much to the chagrin of everyone except Michigan State fans, John L is gone. Into his cowboy boots steps Mark Dantonio, formerly of Cincinnati and Ohio State. He is the antithesis of JLS: a defensive coordinator from a traditional power who is as exciting as toast. JLS spent his offseasons climbing Kilimanjaro or jumping out of planes; Dantonio's summer was highlighted by an appearance in Faith Magazine, which is unfortunately not a Georgie Michael fanzine but rather a bonafide religious magazine my mother gets. According to Faith, Dantonio has his priorities straight:
Faith is more important than winning to Michigan State University's head coach
If he turns out to be something less than Nick Saban, that's probably a good philosophy to take into the job. Dantonio now sets to the task of transforming Michigan State football into something that will require the construction of a new preview format, but with zero talent on defense and an offense that looks capable at best chances are Michigan State's '08 preview gets triple nested.
Even though Michigan State returned virtually all of its key actors from a breakout 2005, including terrifying quarterback Drew Stanton and nippy tailback Javon Ringer, production dipped significantly. Some of this was because the aforementioned stars missed significant portions of the year with injury, as did important sections of the offensive line, but even fully healthy versions of Michigan State struggled to recapture the cowboy bravado that led the Spartans to some gaudy numbers in 2004 and 2005.
If John L Smith was still around some speculation on the causes of this regression would be warranted. (D
id the Big Ten catch on to counter draws and rolling pockets? Did Stanton just regress?) But he's out the door, so who cares? Dantonio's offense will be a run-heavy thing reminiscent of those grinding Ohio State teams pre-Smith. Past results will have little bearing on future performance.
Rating: 3. Redshirt junior Brian Hoyer is the guy and while he's no Drew Stanton there are some positive indicators on him. He was a four star guy to the gurus and was decent when pressed into action late last year as Stanton added to his already brimming collection of injuries. He played virtually all of Michigan State's final two games of the season and threw so often (111 attempts) that the acquired experience was closer to four games. Throw in 24 other attempts across three games where things got out of hand or Stanton got dinged up and Hoyer picked up a half-season's worth of experience in 2006. He's a new starter but not an entirely green one. Except in that obvious Michigan State way.
And, well... from what I've seen I think he's going to be at least okay. I have some explaining to do: he completed 57% of his passes last year (bad) and only managed 6 yards per attempt (also bad). An attempt: being thrown into your first serious action in the death throes of a dying regime will distort your numbers, especially when your receivers aren't any good and you're playing in front of a patchwork line. Hoyer's not going to wow anyone with his footspeed, but at his best he can be something similar to the traditional Michigan quarterback. With three years in college, a modicum of on-field experience, and a new offense that promises to put much of the heat on the run game, Hoyer should be a competent game manager in the mold of a John Stocco.
Tailback & Fullback
Rating: 4. It's the same cast of characters here: the elusive but flimsy Ringer (@ right), Christian Okoye-wannabe Jehuu Caulcrick, and meh AJ Jimmerson. If Ringer's limbs remain intact, he'll be the primary threat with Caulcrick acting as a short yardage battering ram and change of pace, although not a change of direction. Caulcrick is a more extreme version of Tony Hunt, faster and angrier and even less able to take his steamroll in another direction once it gets up to cruising speed. This was effective at times when the JLS offense managed to crease the line and give him a chance to get moving forward, most notably when he rumbled past the Notre Dame defense time and again in the aforementioned upset/collapse. However, he's a guy who absolutely needs a hole to be created and for that hole to be in the right spot. Against even decent run defenses, this did not happen:
That might be understandable, but seven carries for eight yards against Indiana? Five for eight against Minnesota? This is cherry-picking stats a little bit, but excise the nonconference schedule (rush defenses faced: #98 Idaho, #107 Pittsburgh, #61 Notre Dame; Caulcrick DNP versus EMU) and Caulcrick's YPC drops to a paltry 3.2. He's not much more than a third and short specialist.
Ringer, meanwhile, is a darting runner capable of juking someone out of his jock and getting to the corner. Across two seasons of intermittent productivity he has 1,314 yards at 6.3 yards per carry; if he can stay healthy and do that in, like, one season he'll be amongst the best backs in the country. A caveat: most of Ringer's production last year was against the above-discarded nonconference schedule. Twenty-five carries for 59 yards in the final three games of the season is something of a red flag, and on closer examination there's a similar lack of productivity against premiere foes going back a while. I still like him and think he's one of the most talented backs in the league, but there's a nonzero chance his pretty average is a mirage that evaporates in the heat of a full season's carries.
Jimmerson was a moderately well regarded recruit who redshirted and got spot playing time a year ago; as third backs go he's all right.
Wide Receiver & Tight Ends
Rating: 3. Massive turnover here. Matt Trannon's epic (as measured in length, not titanic deeds; think "Ishtar") career has finally clattered to its stone-handed conclusion; the erstwhile power forward plans on joining Greg Oden at AARP meetings this fall. Also gone are rangy JUCO transfer Kerry Reed, by far MSU's most effective receiver a year ago, and RB/WR/disastrous-trick-play-QB Jerramy Scott. Remaining players with experience are senior Terry Love (@ right), a slight and not particularly fast receiver comparable to Penn State's Deon Butler, and sophomore TJ Williams. Williams showed significant promise as a freshman with 25 catches for 281 yards and 3 touchdowns and will be the primary threat in the passing game if he's allowed on the field. That goes for Love, too. Neither projected starter started practice on time. Love has academic issues he's working to resolve; Williams is in "timeout*" until August 27th for unspecified team rules violations.
Devon Thomas and Deon Curry are the starters in their absence, but it's freshman Mark Dell who bears watching. Dell was well reviewed by the recruiting services and steps into a situation in which there is plenty of opportunity for playing time.
There's also tight end Kellen Davis, an all-catch no-block sort of tight end who doesn't do much in the way of catching. Davis' six reception, 61-yard outburst against Penn State in the finale doubled his numbers on the year. He finished with 12 catches for 125 yards.
*(perhaps the most positive indicator for Dantonio's future is that he seems to treat MSU's existing players like kindergarteners... wise move after last year's ongoing fiasco.)
Rating: 3. Inexplicable guard Roland Martin -- #2 ranked his recruiting year and a starter as a redshirt sophomore -- is the anchor of a line that returns four of five starters. New center John Masters replaces All Big Ten honorable mention Kyle Cook; he's a senior who started three games last year. The line is experienced, with three seniors and two juniors, and has a modicum of talent in Martin and left tackle Mike Gyetvai, finally healthy after offseason surgery. It appears to be a strength.
A parade might not be called for, though. Rust-laden Gyetvai is no lock for the starting job; his replacement would probably be a dropoff. Michigan State finished 81st in sacks allowed despite having a mobile quarterback and rolling pockets much of the year and 65th in rush offense despite having a talented set of running backs and the aforementioned mobile quarterback. When Stanton went out against Minnesota, Gopher defensive end Willie VanDeSteeg shot up the ranks of the
overrated by teeing off on Hoyer, racking up four sacks. Without Stanton providing an extra threat, the run game was totally abandoned in favor of Hoyerpalooza the last couple games of the year. Some skepticism is warranted, especially as Michigan State moves away from the JLS offense and picks up an entirely new set of angles to learn. Rocky times may be had at the start.
A vaguely average rush defense was for naught as the Spartans turned in their usual matador job in the secondary and once again established themselves one of the worst defenses in the country. Anyone with a semblance of an offense -- this preview excludes Illinois and Penn State from that category -- lit Michigan State up like whoah last year. One particularly ugly four game stretch tells the story: it's understandable, maybe, to give up 31 points to Manningham-led Michigan and 38 to Troy Smith's aerial fireworks. Those are two tough weeks. But when you march into subsequent games against Northwestern and Indiana and give up 38 and 46 points, respectively, you suck.
(Sidenote: Purdue is the exception here. They managed just 17 points against MSU... more fuel for the Painter Sucks fire? He did go 21 of 30 for 286 yards, two TD, and no INT, so not really. But it is an inexplicable lack of output given the quality of the defense faced and the quarterback yardage.)
Rating: 1. The spring is a time for love, Dairy Queen openings, and relentlessly implausible optimism from coaches across the country. These previews are built on several principles, one of which is this: assume postive reports are 75% false; regard anything negative as the holiest gospel truth. With that in mind, I present Dantonio's take on the Spartan defensive tackles:
"We're extremely thin at defensive tackle. It's extremely tough to play inside as a true freshman, but we might not have a choice this fall. We might be forced to get the job done by freshman committee this fall."
He's right to be wary. Both of last year's tackles were adequate players -- Clifton Ryan was probably the best defender State had -- who are now gone. In their stead are Justin Kershaw, a converted DE who managed two TFLs in extensive playing time last year, sophomore John Stipek (four tackles a year ago), senior JUCO Ogemdi Nwagbuo, and true freshmen. One of these freshmen, Ohioan Antonio Jeremiah, got positive reviews from the recruiting services; the rest are leftovers.
This position group is going to be terrible. Everyone is undersized. Both Kershaw and Stipek are trying to bulk up from 250 pounds a year ago and will be fortunate to play at an effective 270 or 275. If Kershaw tries to play at the 260 this Scout article projects him at things will be even worse. (The article says Kershaw should "start quickly," which is right if it means he'll get hurled five yards downfield faster than you can say "Mike Hart 200 yard day.") There's virtually no experience: with Kershaw moving in from end, only Nwagbuo has seen appreciable time. And there's no raw talent outside of Jeremiah. Spartan DTs are liable to get tossed around the field all year.
Things are less dire at end. Well, at one end. JUCO transfer Erwin Baldwin had one hilarious interception return touchdown, that in the totally fun MSU-ND game last year, and four sacks as part of six and a half TFLs. A significant but not implausible step forward would yield something approximating an average Big Ten defensive end. On the other side, juniors Brandon Long and Jonal Saint-Dic will attempt to hold off JUCO transfer Michael Jordan. Long and Saint-Dic's sell-by dates have expired. Both were mediocre recruits -- Long picked MSU over a selection of MAC schools, Saint-Dic was a lightly-regarded JUCO -- who couldn't bust into a crappy defensive line in two years of trying. Long retains a bit more upside as a true junior, but he'll be a vastly undersized defensive end if he starts. Either projects to be bad.
On the other hand, Jordan, a Spartan true believer from Grand Rapids Creston who didn't make the grade out of high school, is a major wildcard. He's listed at 6'6" and anywhere from 270 to 300 pounds and acquired four stars from Rivals, who rated him the #24 JUCO coming out last year. (By way of comparison, Austin Panter was #18.) He played both inside and outside in JUCO and figures to find his way to the field somewhere. He has the physical tools lacking elsewhere on the line; it remains to be seen if that will translate to Big Ten play.
It's never a good sign when a starting safety leads the team in tackles, and it's especially nasty when said safety has, like, way more tackles than your middle linebacker, but that was the case last year: Otis Wiley's 94 tackles dwarfed Josh Thornhill's 68. Heck, if you combine Travis Key and Nehemiah Warrick's tackles -- reasonable since they platooned -- those guys come in at 87. Michigan State's two leading tacklers last year were essentially the starting safeties. This means the front seven is not getting its job done; part of that is the defensive line allowing blockers to get through; part of that is a subpar linebacking corps. With the graduation of SLB David Herron, the best player in the unit last year, things will get worse.
Don't believe me? Everything you need to know about the Spartan linebackers in three handy sentences:
Every college football team has one - a 200-pound starting linebacker with a black belt in Tae Kwon Do, clinically diagnosed hyperactivity, classical piano skills and absolutely no interest in sports. On second thought, Jon Misch has to be the first. ... Misch was the surprise of spring ball, and he enters fall camp solidly entrenched as the starter at strong-side linebacker.
Every indicator indicates that Jon "Samurai" Misch is going to suck and suck hard. He was a two star recruit out of metro Detroit power Orchard Lake St Mary -- no reason he'd be overlooked like a guy from Houghton or Guatemala or something -- who was credited with a 4.7 40 at 195 pounds. That 40 has not improved:
The 6-foot-2 Misch - who gleefully weighed in Tuesday at an all-time high of 207 - runs the 40-yard dash in 4.89 seconds.
He had one other offer: Eastern Michigan. Now he's a starting linebacker at 200 pounds as a redshirt freshman. Not only that, a starting strongside linebacker! If he's not awful I'll eat my hat. Hidden upside: slight but real chance he flips out and gets a bu
nch of personal fouls for ninja kicking various people in the head.
Starters return at middle and weakside linebacker. Senior MLB Kaleb Thornhill has been pedestrian thus far in his career -- those 68 tackles are a weak number for his position. Add in a distinct lack of playmaking (just 2.5 TFLs and no sacks) and a picture of a heady, hard-nosed football player who just wants to play football he's a warrior comes into focus. Unfortunately, said football player is not good at the football and will struggle to do anything positive in front of the ragdolls at DT.
The other returner is WLB SirDarean Adams, though he was deployed as the "bandit" in JLS's 4-2-5 scheme and may have to get used to some new responsibilities. That remains speculation since no one, especially Adams, could ever figure out exactly what the bandit was supposed to do. The Spartans are either relying on Adams to be their big playmaker in the front seven or demoting him to second-string behind redshirt freshman Eric Gordon, depending on what day of the week it is. Adams has picked up a rep for being a freaky stud freak of an athlete whose on-field irresponsibility drives coaches mad; Gordon was actually a well-reviewed recruit who might have picked up a Michigan offer if he was patient but decided to end his recruitment early. Adams' demotion is universally regarded as just for show, so Gordon will have to wait. If Adams doesn't show up in the right places at the right time he might not wait long.
Rating: 2. The most reliably awful secondary this side of Northwestern has actually found a player or two. Safety Otis Wiley (@ right), as mentioned, led the team in tackles by a wide margin as a true sophomore. He also added 6.5 TFL and 10 pass breakups. He appears to be an All Big Ten safety this year. His partners on the Spartan's oft-tested last line of defense were JUCO transfer Nehemiah Warrick and Travis Key. Warrick received a considerable amount of spring hype that didn't translate to the field, where he had a few TFLs and 3 pass breakups in an unremarkable season. Key, a senior, also returns. Last year he split time with Warrick, picking up a sack, 3.5 TFL, and an interception to go with 45 tackles.
While safety is something of a strong point on the Michigan State defense (see also: "great moments in French military history"), corner remains a Keystone Kops operation. Michigan State's secondary managed three interceptions all of last year; two of those depart with Demond Williams, leaving Key's lonely pick as the only one wandering back to a Michigan State sideline this fall. Junior Kendall Davis-Clark and sophomore Ross Weaver are the projected starters. Davis-Clark managed to go all of last year without picking off a pass or even breaking one up; Weaver sat out the year with injury. There is a reason the Spartans finished the year 109th in pass efficiency defense, and these guys are a major part of it. The potential for improvement is here, but Michigan State is firmly ensconced in a I'll-believe-it-when-I-see it era at corner.
Rating: 3. Brett Swenson's successful freshman year might not have erased the terrible memories of whatever that Goss kid's name was -- seriously, folks, keep people named "Goss" away from your athletic programs -- but it was a Rivas-esque turnaround. A year after an epic special teams disaster, Swenson went 15 for 19. He projects as one of the Big Ten's better kickers.
Punter Brandon Fields finally graduates; it's MGoBlog policy not to speculate on unknown punters. Whoever the replacement is will probably not replicate Fields' performance: 19th in gross average at 43.2 yards per kick, helping Michigan State to 23rd in net punting.
The return game was dismal for Michigan State last year. Love, the primary punt returner, averaged under five yards an opportunity. Kickoff return man Demond Williams graduates; he was also awful. Maybe they'll unearth one of those undersized scat types or a JUCO jet engine like Deandra Cobb, but the current projection is below average.
The theory of turnover margin: it is nearly random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are highly likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
|2006||Int +||Fumb +||Sacks +||Int -||Fumb -||Sacks -|
|-0.08 (70th)||8||12||1.33 (103rd)||13||8||2.33 (81st)|
MSU was -1 a year ago and has new systems on both sides of the ball. No conclusions can be drawn here.
Position Switch Starters
Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.
Justin Kershaw moves from defensive end to play undersized defensive tackle because the Spartans are desperate for anyone big enough to play the position. A major red flag for the defensive line. SirDarean Adams is technically no longer a "bandit," but, as mentioned, no one really knows what that was supposed to be anyway.
Dumbest Thing In CFN Preview
The first sentence!
John L Smith crashed and burned, sure, but what he had built was a pretty good Conference USA program, not the Big East power of today. Bobby Williams' only talent was looking like he was about to cry at all times (except when actually crying), and the man before him is Moneybags Nick Saban, who parlayed one good year at MSU into jobs at LSU, the Miami Dolphins, and Alabama. He can now buy large portions of Southeast Asia. One does not make a trend.
(and it says it succinctly)
An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt
The line is experienced and not devoid of talent. Last year their results were skewed by injuries to key actors. They've got a deep, talented backfield and a quarterback who won't throw games away. But where is the upside on defense? Sure, if true freshman and undersized players everywhere combine to form some sort of Christmas Miracle Voltron it could avoid bein
g totally terrible, but it would still be bad. The offense doesn't have the horsepower to keep up with most of the Big Ten thoroughbreds, but it's possible Michigan State squeezes out an undefeated nonconference schedule. Pitt's no good and if Notre Dame's offense is in disarray they could squeak by the Irish (and win for the sixth straight time at ND -- the one aspect of the MSU program I envy). In conference, though... 3-5 at best. 7-5.
There's no bottom here if the offensive line is weak. Hoyer's a pocket passer, unlike Crazy Legs Stanton, and if he's not protected he will die. If the offensive line also submarines the running game, both sides of the ball could be vastly below average. They'd still probably win three games somewhere along the line. 3-9.
It's going to be a long, painful year for Michigan State. Dantonio's renowned for being a defensive strategist but he has nothing to work with here save Wiley and maybe a competent player here and there who will emerge as the season progresses. The defensive line projects to be Indiana bad, a 210 pound freshman who runs a 4.9 is the starting strongside linebacker, and there's little hope for competence at cornerback. Forget spinning straw into gold. If Dantonio can take these raw materials and make them merely bad it would be an accomplishment.
Things are brighter offensively. There's a real chance of competence here if Ringer and Gyetvai stay healthy. Hoyer's not likely to tear up defenses across the conference but he is a good bet to be average. Although the wide receivers are questionable they won't be asked to carry the offense like they were in previous years. Michigan State will be able to move the ball against most teams; the highs won't be as high with Dantonio's old school approach but the lows won't be as low, either. Anyone who can consistently stuff Ringer without committing an extra safety will make it very tough on the Spartans, but that won't be many teams outside of the big four. Adequacy is probable.
Still, adequacy opposite incompetence adds up to dismal results.
|9/8||Bowling Green||Probable win|
|9/22||@ Notre Dame||Probable loss|
|10/20||@ Ohio State||Auto-loss|
|10/27||@ Iowa||Probable loss|
|11/10||@ Purdue||Probable loss|
Whiffing on Minnesota and Illinois is a tough break; expect lots of tough breaks this year. I expect 2-2 out of conference, 2-6 in it, and a 4-8 year overall, though I'm tempted to consider Michigan State's inherent Michigan State-ness and predict one massive upset that gets them within a game of .500.
But... no. I think Dantonio could be a good hire if he uses his OSU contacts to rip away the B-level Ohio recruits that populate the rosters of Wisconsin and Iowa and Minnesota and etc etc etc, but he hasn't displayed the sort of tactical moxie that could rescue a team as talent-bereft as this one in three years at Cincinnati.
Update 8/13: Linked to fully ranked Rivals 250, articles on MI CB Boubacar Cissoko, TX S Keanon Cooper, AZ TE Dion Sims, MN WR Michael Floyd. Removed MI OT Deontae Pannell (PSU), OH RB Michael Shaw (PSU), TX DE Damien Square ('Bama), AZ S Jarrell Barbour (Arizona). Linked to Facebook chat w/ CT RB Mike Cox. Added PA DE Adrian Robinson.
Editorial Opinion: Quiet week.
Commits elsewhere. The ship sailed on Shaw once we picked up McGuffie and Cox; Square seemed interested in Michigan based on Stonum and McGuffie's raves but never visited. Neither is much of a disappointment. Pannell's an odd case who went from saying he really, really wanted a Michigan offer and would jump on it to unimpressed when that offer came. He visited but never seemed that into it. Either we turned him off by waiting or gave him an offer with a restrictive condition or two; don't know. Meanwhile, AZ S Jarrell Barbour went from Michigan as slight, unvisited leader to Arizona commit overnight. The board at safety now has one solid green in Brandon Smith and then implausible red intermixed with a couple of unknowns like Vaughn Telemaque. I am Officially Concerned.
One person who could potentially assuage my concern is TX S Keanon Cooper, who claims an offer from Michigan and mentions something like this in most articles that feature him:
"I've always liked Michigan," he said. "They are one school that always does well and I expect big things from them this season. They a top five team and should be competing for the Big 10 championship and the national championship."
Cooper's definitely leaving the state, as his top six consists of Nebraska, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Alabama along with Michigan. At previous junctures he's named both Minnesota and Wisconsin as slight leaders, which leads me to believe 1) Cooper's not worried about distance or weather and 2) Michigan hasn't put on a full-court press yet.
Arizona TE Dion Jordan isn't put off by the two TE commits already in the class and plans to visit for the Penn State game along with teammate Marc Anthony, a cornerback. Possible reason why:
...with a 4.6 sec. 40 and a 14.2 110m high hurdles, don't count Jordan out as a college wideout. In fact, Chandler head coach Jim Ewan says, "The upside to Dion is that he could play three spots, tight end, wide receiver or defensive end. He takes pride in doing all three. I think that he will end up a big wideout."
Rivals' new top 250 has followed the lead of Scout's top 300 and provided specific rankings for each player in it. Once you get down past 100 (or 50, really), individual rankings are somewhat silly -- tiers of 20 or 30 recruits would probably be more realistic -- but it is useful to know that JB Fitzgerald sits just slightly outside the top 100 and Christian Wilson just barely inside the top 250.
For the record, commits (listing stolen from IBFC):
Stonum: 44 (up from the 60s)
Cissoko: 54 (down slightly)
Moore: 61 (down slightly)
O'Neill: 71 (down slightly)
McGuffie: 90 (up an indeterminate amount)
Koger: 160 (way up from the previous rankings, in which he was out of the 250)
B. Smith: 89
The only other thing this week is a weird little piece of new media, a Facebook group called The Michigan Football Recruiting Epicenter, that scored an interview/chat thing with running back commit Mike Cox. It's hard to pin down a link that doesn't shift with the sands of the group's ever-expanding wall posts, but at this instant it begins here. The chat's your standard txt-influenced internet pidgin both on the asking and receiving side -- looks like sin in text form to me, but I am old and crotchety compared to these damn kids on their social networking sites, oooh I'm so emo look at my hair -- so keep your grammar expectations low. Anyway...
do you pay attention to what the recruiting sites say about you at all? For some reason these sites have been slow to evaluate you
Mike Cox: haha not@ all, if wat they were saying was true do u really think michgian, or any of these schools on my offer list woulda offered me?? no, and getting offers from camp is alot harder than just gettin offered offa hype casue i had 2 prove myslef...they just hatin on me casue im from the east coast, let me give u the real scouting report on me tho, i'm just a real good all around back, got real good hands, can block, im fast (useally run mid- 4.4's), i'm quick (4.19 shuttle), got hops (37.4 in vert) and i'm strong (can bench about 320 now and squat about 500) so i think i'ma do real good wen i get there ...
and by the way, the only offers (except 4 duke) i got from going 2 camp ...
like even the coaches tell me, if i was from texas i'd b like 4 stars, have like 50 offers all dat, but i'm from boston so they nobody wanna think i'm nice
Someone compares him to Chris Howard; unsurprisingly this is the result:
... naa i never heard of chris howard but i could see people comparing me 2 him the way u describe him
Hey, man, the guy was married to Gabrielle Union, you better recognize. I'll now stop talking like a sassy 13-year-old girl. (Whateva! I do what I want!) An excitable dude from Colorado asks a PERTINENT QUESTION:
YOU CONSIDERING ENROLLING EARLY?
naa, my school wont let me, and i dont think i would wanna anyway even tho it would help 4 my first year there, i wanna have n enjoy my senior spring and everything
There is this explanation of his stats:
my first year i played i had about 900 yards n 4 games (i didnt get 2 play untill half way through the season, had 2 beat out 2 sick senior RB's), then last year i had a lil over a 1000 yards, about 10 yards a carry, about 16 TD's, my stats woulda been better but i only had averaged like 15 carries a game ... and we only play a 8 game season, so its kinda short comared 2 everywhere else ...
yeaa, haha just put it this way, the offensive coordinator at my school got fired after the season 4 not playing me... i cant wait till next season tho, casue the new coach is mad chill, he gonna have me returnin kicks, punts, all that, and he said id at least get around 25 carries a game...and yea in the offseason i useally do other sports (lol i play like eveyr sport) except this summer im just working out for football mostly n chillin wit my fam n freinds n stuff
A man brings up Inexplicable Jonas Gray:
well obviously the michigan coaching staff thinks really highly of you, i heard they wanted you over Jonas Gray and he is ranked 10th best running back by scout and 4th best by rivals, that just shows that you are right up there with the best of them
i think he might a lied about his 40 time 2 (4.37???) man, i was runnin wit him all day and didnt even come close to me n da drills and i cant run no 4.3
And a fin
al question of interest:
Alright now be truthful on this...do you think you were the best back that Michigan had in camp this year?
the michgian coahces told my coach that i was the best RB in camp they had this year ... i'll tell u this tho, i kno the day i went, i was the best
Non-pertinent information: Cox believes Bonds was on steroids but doesn't want to take anything away from the accomplishment, he owns NCAA 08 -- described as "ill" -- and he's sort of a Red Sox fan but doesn't follow baseball that much.
(If we could skip the comments in which someone says mean things about Cox's writing style I would appreciate it; this isn't a term paper.)
We now return you to your previously scheduled Notre Dame-Michigan academics flamewar; board here.
James McKinney's medical issue that had him off the roster but not necessarily off the team permanently has turned into a transfer:
James McKinney, a former U.S. Army All-American who starred at Louisville Central, has received his release from Michigan and is looking for a new home.
He's transferring to Louisville, which is odd since McKinney's trip to UL was perhaps the worst official visit in the history of official visits. He was kicked off campus after a night, supposedly because he was flaunting his desire to go to Michigan or some such thing. Carr refused to communicate any information about his "medical issue," but chances are it's not physical if McKinney's transferring away, especially back home.
I'm not sure if this good news or not, but the Big Ten Network and Time Warner are proposing a free preview in Ohio for the opening weekend of the season:
Time Warner Cable might show Ohio State's football opener against Youngstown State, even though the cable company hasn't reached an agreement with the Big Ten Network.
Time Warner, which serves two-thirds of wired homes in Ohio, including some 600,000 in central Ohio, said it would consider showing the Youngstown State game Sept. 1 and the Akron game Sept. 8 on one of its basic cable channels without a Big Ten Network deal.
"We would be happy to facilitate a 'freeview' of the live games on expanded basic cable," a Time Warner spokeswoman said.
Mark Silverman, president of the new network, didn't rule out the idea.
"I can't comment on that specific solution, but we're trying to get this (overall deal) done," he said. "I'm open to coming up with creative ways to solve this."
This would seem to be a step towards getting a deal done with Time Warner and an indication that negotiations are progressing more slowly than optimal, or a negotiating ploy that would strip the BTN of much of its leverage by putting the big-ticket Ohio State games on without committing to the network. I don't think the BTN would go for this without the framework for an agreement in place.
Oh snap. Mark Snyder also takes issue with the Forde article and Harbaugh's comments in the Free Press:
Forde stated that "only one junior has declared a major, according to the guide (in movement science). In 18 years of covering college athletics, I've never seen virtually an entire junior class without a major."
That's outdated information. That was from the spring media guide, before most juniors declare majors in the summer. In the fall media guide released last week, only two juniors (of 19) remained undeclared, and one is Antonio Bass, who has missed significant school time because of his leg injuries.
And to use a media guide as the basis for the research is a bit limiting and selective, given Forde has no idea why some majors are listed and some are not.
Would it be better to list a variety of majors, as Ohio State does, and rank in the 40th to 50th percentile of the APR? Or Michigan State, in the 30th to 40th of football programs?
There's more; worth a read.
Game times. ESPN's put out a press release announcing a bunch of television start times. Relevant notes:
- Oregon and ND are both national ABC games at 3:30.
- Illinois will be at night but the network its on is still undecided.
- The national telecasts of regional ABC games get a little more clarification:
Eight Saturday afternoon windows will feature innovative coverage in which ESPN or ESPN2 will regionalize two games on ABC to markets not receiving the telecast. For example, on September 1, ABC will televise Washington State at Wisconsin and Wake Forest at Boston College at 3:30 p.m. ET. ESPN will "reverse mirror" ABC's coverage, televising Washington State at Wisconsin in markets receiving Wake Forest at Boston College (on ABC) and Wake Forest at Boston College to the part of the country receiving Washington State at Wisconsin (on ABC).
Older than Greg Oden. Georgia Tech blog Ramblin' Racket thinks "the Rose Bowl's tradition is largely bogus" because the Big Ten-Pac 10 matchup was not instituted until 1947. Because a tradition that's only 60 years old is no tradition at all. Weird.
Like Shark Week but without the sharks. It's Big Ten week over at SMQB, and all posts are highly recommended. Nothing on Michigan yet, but a discussion of Tresselball in the post-Smith era and the possible fates of Penn State and Iowa in the middle of the pack.
Grate. Badger Tracker has an excellent post about this Bielema-Ikegwuonu thing that summarizes why I'm beginning to detest the guy:
And of course, it is unwise to to talk to the press about active legal proceedings. But there's a right way and a wrong way to address the situation. The wrong way is what Bielema did: to be antagonistic and standoffish to the press, lecturing them about what they can and cannot ask, acting like there is something to hide. What Bielema did goes way beyond the laudable goal of protecting a player. The right way is to prep Ikegwuonu before his media time, telling him, "You know the off-the-field stuff is going to come up. Tell them it's an unfortunate situation, it's not going to affect your preparation for the season, and you can't comment because the legal proceedings are ongoing."
To preempt questions about the incident and then threaten Ikegwuonu's departure if the coach's directive is broached is an annoying way to go about things. And maybe none of the offenses here require kids to be booted off the team, but felony trespass and burglary should warrant a meaningful suspension. I seriously doubt one's coming.
(No doubt there will be some glass houses accusations, but to compare this to Adrian Arrington's situation -- an unspecified violation of team rules believed to be pot possession -- or Carson Butler's -- he was acquitted -- is ridiculous. Ikegwuonu hasn't been convicted of anything yet, but if he is there should be some discipline from the University. I'm not holding my breath.)