well that's just, like, your opinion, man
|WHAT||Michigan v. Minnesota|
|WHERE||St Paul, MN|
|WHEN||7:00PM EST (6PM Local)
February 11th, 2010
|THE LINE||Michigan +8.5*|
*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.
John Beilein has had plenty of time to scheme and prepare his team, which I still maintain he's among the best at doing, so that counts for something. The Wolverines also don't need to worry about preparing for the next opponent, since they won't hit the court again until next Tuesday, taking this weekend off.
However, there's still that tiny factor in play that this is a fundamentally flawed, and simply not good basketball team whether it's because Manny Harris has regressed or is otherwise struggling, or the team just can't shoot (or defend), something isn't right. The Wolverines have very little to play for, and that's not exactly a recipe for a stunning turnaround.
The Gophers, like Northwestern, are playing undermanned this year, though for totally different reasons. Royce White was booted from the team for a number of legal problems, Trevor Mbakwe is in a similar boat, and Al Nolen scoffs at your notions that he should do such things as "go" to "class." With all their personnel difficulties, the Gophers are very much a team in turmoil. HOWEVA, they are also very much a team on the bubble. With a strong finish to the year, they can make it into the NCAA tournament, and a win over Michigan is key to that scenario.
Forward Damian Johnson and center Ralph Sampson MCVII (actually the Third) are among the Gophers' leaders in offensive rating, though Sampson's effort has been called into question at times. Both of them are outdone by Blake Hoffarber, who leads the nation in offensive rating, with the best True Shooting% of any player in the country, as well.
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.
|Michigan v. Minnesota: National Ranks|
|Category||Michigan Rank||Minnesota Rank||Advantage|
|Mich eFG% v. Minn Def eFG%||226||67||GG|
|Mich Def eFG% v. Minn eFG%||206||26||GG|
|Mich TO% v. Minn Def TO%||21||11||G|
|Mich Def TO% v. Minn TO%||54||86||M|
|Mich OReb% v. Minn DReb%||266||123||GG|
|Mich DReb% v. Minn OReb%||211||210||-|
|Mich FTR v. Minn Opp FTR||335||124||GGG|
|Mich Opp FTR v. Minn FTR||12||255||MMM|
|Mich AdjO v. Minn AdjD||126||21||GG|
|Mich AdjD v. Minn AdjO||43||75||M|
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc. G is for Gophers.
Michigan has gone from a mediocre-yet-improving team to a flatly bad one over the course of a couple weeks. Minnesota is a pretty good squad, which means they will probably truck the Wolverines.
Michigan has an advantage in but two categories, which would be forcing the Gophers to turn it over (something they did well last year, forcing 30 Minnesota turnovers in two games), and not sending them to the free throw line. The flip side of that is that Michigan probably won't shoot a single free throw, and the Gophers actually have an advantage in forcing Michigan turnovers, something we won't see too many times this year.
On the road, against a team that is playing for its NCAA tournament life, I can't see the Wolverines emerging from the Barn with a win. Ken Pomeroy likes Minnesota by 9, and Vegas makes them the 8.5-point favorites. I see Michigan going to DeShawn Sims early, and managing to stay in the game, but not coming out with a win. The spreads look about right, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Michigan cover.
FL LB Kent Turene (#6 to the right in above photo) is a junior linebacker from Boyd Anderson High School and a teammate of Michigan signee Demar Dorsey. He’s been in contact with over 19 schools already, including Michigan, and plans on hearing from more very soon. I caught up with Kent, and here’s what he had to say.
TOM: You’re not as high profile as some of the other Florida kids, but you’ve got a chance to be the one of the best linebackers in Florida. Tell me about your game.
KENT: I don’t like to give up yardage, I’m hard nosed to the ball, and I like to hit hard. I just go after the ball. I go 100% on every play. I play inside and outside linebacker right now. I like both, so it doesn’t really matter which one I play. I’m just trying to work on my speed, and how to read the offense a little better. I think I play the run really well, and I’m good in coverage, though.
TOM: What schools have been in contact with you so far?
KENT: Miami, Florida, Florida State, Michigan; around 19 schools. Most of them have said that the offer will be coming soon. They’re just evaluating me, and then they’ll get the offer out.
TOM: How many offers do you have?
KENT: FIU and Nebraska right now.
TOM: Do you have a list of favorites so far?
KENT: I’m open to everybody. I wasn’t really a fan of anyone growing up, so I just want to go where I can play.
TOM: Has Demar Dorsey said anything to you about Michigan, now that he’s committed?
KENT: Yeah, he’s always telling me that he wants me to come up there with him. He was telling me that if they offer I should go up there, and play with him. We’ll see. He was telling me about the stadium, the facilities, and the coaches. He really likes the coaches.
TOM: Do you think that will factor in to your decision? Does it help Michigan to have Demar up there?
KENT: I’ve thought about it, I think I’d like to go to Michigan. I would like to play with Demar. I had a great time playing with him, and he’s a great teammate. So, yeah that helps.
TOM: Are you going to try to visit Michigan over the spring, or summer?
KENT: I would like to, I’m going to see if I can. Money and time will decide if I do.
TOM: Being from the south, do you think distance will factor into your decision?
KENT: I’ve never been that far north, but that doesn’t really matter to me. I just want to go where I can play. The weather wouldn’t bug me.
TOM: When are you going to make your decision?
KENT: I’ll make my decision pretty soon. I’m not going to wait until signing day. It will be before the season starts.
Who's Adam Braitwaite? He's just a guy no one has heard of because he was a quality control assistant and at some seriously small schools before that. Googling turns up zero about this version of Adam Braithwaite before today. Press release ho.
Rodriguez Names Adam Braithwaite as Safeties/Outside Linebackers Coach
ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- University of Michigan football coach Rich Rodriguez announced Thursday (Feb. 11) the hiring of Adam Braithwaite as the program’s safeties/outside linebackers coach. Braithwaite joins the Wolverines’ staff as a full-time assistant coach after spending the past two seasons as a staff assistant.
“We are excited to promote Adam to be our safeties/outside linebackers coach,” said Rodriguez. “He has been a loyal hard-working member of our staff for several years and knows our system. I believe he will bring a lot of energy both in coaching and recruiting.”
As previously announced during Rodriguez’s signing day press conference (Feb. 3), defensive coordinator Greg Robinson will coach the linebackers. Bruce Tall will continue to work with the defensive line.
Assistant head coach Tony Gibson will coach the cornerbacks and free safety position. He will also add the responsibility of coordinating the special teams. Rodriguez will continue to have all of the coaches remain involved with a certain phase of special teams, but Gibson will manage that phase of the game on a daily basis and on gameday.
Braithwaite was the defensive coordinator at Hampden-Sydney College (Va.) during the 2007 season. He worked with the linebackers and coordinated the special teams for the program’s conference championship team and Division III National Playoff run. Prior to accepting his position at Hampden-Sydney, Braithwaite was a defensive graduate assistant for Rodriguez at West Virginia (2005-06). He assisted with the secondary and linebackers and helped the Mountaineers win a pair of bowl games (2006 Sugar and 2007 Gator) and the 2005 Big East title.
Braithwaite was the safeties coach at William & Mary in 2004 when the Tribe claimed the Atlantic 10 Championship and reached the semifinals of the Division I-AA National Championship. He gained his first college coaching position as the wide receivers and tight end coach at West Liberty State College (2003).
Braithwaite was a four-year letterman at defensive back for William & Mary (1997-2001), and was the starting strong safety on the Tribe’s 2001 Atlantic 10 co-Championship team. He earned his bachelor of arts from William & Mary (2002) and his master’s degree in athletic coaching education from West Virginia (2007).
So… uninspiring. At least they know the guy and the chances the transplanted organ doesn't take are low.
Whoah… Texas. I'm on druuuugs.
Overtures!!! Everybody PANIC:
A source with ties to the Big Ten said that while most people’s attention has been trained on the conference stealing Missouri, the Big Ten has engaged in “preliminary exchanges” with a much bigger fish from the Big 12.
“There have been preliminary exchanges between the Big Ten and Texas,” the source told the Journal-World on Wednesday. “People will deny that, but it’s accurate.”
Accurate though it may be, "preliminary exchanges" are just folks in suits keeping doors open in case of disaster. Texas to the Big Ten will never ever happen. Reasons:
- The Texas legislature would have the mother of all hissy fits and threaten UT's state funding.
- Texas would go from its usual diet of nummy goo-goo bears plus the occasional big game to a nonconference schedule with mandatory games against A&M and Oklahoma, and that's if Texas isn't forced to play more in-state teams as part of an agreement with the legislature.
- Texas's baseball team, currently a national power, would be playing in the college baseball equivalent of Conference USA.
- Texas has the mojo to have it own damn channel if it wants and won't have to share jack with the other Big Ten teams.
Note that travel costs are omitted, because putting the Big Ten Network on Texas channels means even the crew teams can fly first class. It would be ridiculous. Jim Delany would buy a monocle.
That goes for this Pac-10 expansion, too. I don't buy that adding Colorado and Utah does anything for anyone except bust up the one conference that makes total sense.
Plot against America update. So I toss a link to a USA Today article arguing that adding another 31 teams to the NCAA tournament wouldn't even make much money on mgolicious and the artist formely known as Wonk duly shreds it:
The larger issue here centers on what constitutes “loose change” for the NCAA. Let’s accept that the difference between what a network will pay for a 96-team field and what they’ll lay out for a traditional 65-team version wouldn’t be all that much in percentage terms. Hiestand’s right: The new games would be the least attractive ones and, anyway, they’d represent just 17 percent of the programming “tonnage.” But if you’ve ever bought or sold a house, you’re intimately familiar with the paradox at work here. You negotiate a price and give a few thousand here or take a few thousand there. Then you step away and think: Sweet mother of Ben Bernanke, that right there’s the equivalent of a new car or three years of daycare for your kid, or 50 HDTV’s, etc.
So maybe it's some money up front that's meaningful. Meaningful spread over 340-some D-I teams? Eh… probably not. Meaningful to one organization in Indianapolis? Maybe.
Not that the idea is any less terrible today than it was a few days ago. The proposed expansion would, for all intents and purposes, absorb the entire NIT into the NCAA tournament. Last year's editions of Northwestern, Penn State, Notre Dame (18-14), Nebraska (18-12), Virginia Tech (18-14), and Washington State (17-15) would all have weaseled their way in. That's nine of the Big Ten's eleven teams in the tourney plus an ugly assortment of teams who beat no one and have no chance of winning the tournament. At some point you have to say no.
John Beilein's on the side of justice, FWIW:
"I don't understand right now," he said during his Big Ten teleconference. "The 64 (teams) – I could see adding a couple more 'play-in' games if you have to. But going to 96 may be a hard thing to do. I think it's pretty good right now."
Unsurprisingly, Bo Ryan likes evil and preposterous generalizations:
“To me, it’s foolish for those people who are saying it’s perfect the way it is,” Ryan said Monday. “Obviously, they’ve lived a very shallow life when it comes to looking at change and what change can do and how it can affect things. The history of expansion with the NCAA has been very successful."
Yeah, well, you now, that's just, like, your opinion, man. We have lived a shallow life in which we have never considered how change can affect things.
Yet another way in which college football is like figure skating. Remember some time back when the coaches threw a hissy that people were paying attention to their votes and threatened to take the final coaches' poll private? This was roundly condemned and eventually dropped, but the scars still linger.
If they try it again, opponents should point to what went down when figure skating attempted to beat the corruption out of their judges by making their scores anonymous*:
[Dartmouth economist Eric Zitzewitz] finds that the home-country bias gets even worse when anonymous judges can hide from a scrutinizing press and public, despite the barriers that anonymity may create for effective backroom deal-making. The home-judge advantage under the new system is about 20 percent higher than in the days of full disclosure.
College football coaches already display serious biases when their votes are subject to scrutiny. It would only get worse if they weren't.
*(This seems insane but there is a plausible reason it might be a good idea: it prevents collusion amongst judges. Before there could be backroom deals where a couple countries conspire to rate each other's skaters higher. Now those deals can't be enforced.)
That is more like it. Fred Jackson gives us all hope that Fitzgerald Toussaint is in possession of all his limbs:
"He's as talented as anyone who walked in the door," said Jackson, who has coached Michigan career leading rusher Michael Hart, Chris Perry, Anthony Thomas and Tyrone Wheatley, to name a few.
Jackson said he had never before heard of a player breaking his shoulder blade. But before the injury, Jackson saw budding talent.
"He's got great feet, acceleration, strength, power," Jackson said. "I can compare him to somebody -- he's like a fast Chris Perry. He's going to be very good."
Fitzgerald Toussaint is like a Doak Walker winner who was a first round draft pick… except fast.
Etc.: Basketball recruiting remains dirtier than a dirt sandwich. What's with Ann Arbor as the epicenter of ice dancing? Russians. Obviously. What is the point of this new rule about head coaches in waiting? Manny Harris has never been that efficient in the Big Ten.
It's so crazy it might work
And now for something completely different: I'm on record that the idea of a 14-team Big Ten is basically insane. But if, hypothetically, this occurs, this is a completely insane way of tackling the insane topic of a 14-team college football conference that's so crazy it might work.
The Big Ten implements a limited promotion/relegation structure that sees full-round robins within each group and significant interaction between groups. They add a ninth conference game.
Top five teams.
Play: each other (4), three in group two (3), two in group three (2).
Middle four teams.
Play: each other (3), three in group one (3), three in group three(3).
Bottom five teams.
Play: each other (4), three in group two (3), two in group one(2).
At year's end, the following things happen:
1) the bottom team in group one and the top team in group two swap groups.
2) ditto for groups two and three.
3) the second-to-last team and second-place team in each group plays a playoff game to see whether they stay in their group or switch.
4) The top two teams play a championship game. One team is always the winner of group one. The other team could be the second place team in group one or a really good group two or three winner: any undefeated (in conference) group two/three winner gets an auto-bid to the championship game. If there are two, group two gets priority. If the second-place Group 1 team has the same record as a group two or three team and the lower team has a H2H win, they get the bid. There would probably be some complicated formula that would allow lower division teams into the game if they outperformed the group one teams sufficiently.
Why do this?
It would be pretty intense, right? Every team in the middle group would be clawing to advance or descend. Everyone in the top group would be clawing for the conference title or to avoid getting relegated. The teams at the bottom would be playing to advance and would have a better shot at bowl eligibility. Almost every game in the Big Ten would be critical. No one would be fighting for the Alamo Bowl, they'd be fighting for the right to compete for the conference championship.
Also, it creates a lot more quality matchups between top teams and minimizes face-beatings. All the good teams you want to see play will play. You can even protect a rivalry or two by guaranteeing that if rivals are in different groups they will play each other.
Bonus: It sidesteps the debate about whether to make Big X divisions geographically coherent or wildly unbalanced.
Why not do this?
College football teams can vary so wildly from year to year that the best team in the conference might not make the championship. Earlier this decade, Penn State went from two consecutive losing seasons that would have found them in the bottom group to an 11-1 Orange Bowl winning team.
It's really complicated.
The NCAA would have to sign off on not only a crazy championship game but two other championship-ish games, and they probably wouldn't. And it would blow everyone's minds.
Latwan on the Table
Aside from MN OL Seantrel Henderson, the most notable 2010 prospect to not sign a letter of intent so far is OH S Latwan Anderson. The message boards are all abuzz with the final list of schools he's considering: USC, West Virginia, Ohio State, and... Michigan?
He doesn't currently hold a committable offer, and wouldn't get one unless he were to visit campus. Even then, it's a question of whether there is room in the class for another prospect, and whether Rich Rodriguez is willing to take a second behavioral risk after last week's Dorsey-gate.
Anderson is visiting USC soon, and we'll se if Michigan makes an effort to get him on campus. Until he takes a visit, Michigan's chance with him is holding steady at zero.
Though the 2010 class is wrapped up (barring any late surprises like Anderson), news about preferred walkons is just starting to come to the forefront.
MI WR Baquer Sayed will join the Wolverines as preferred walkon, despite garnering offers from MAC schools and interest from some BCS programs. Last winter, the Detroit News profiled him, and here's a breakdown of his game from Scout.com's Allen Trieu:
“I think, as a high school receiver, Sayed could be the best in the state. [College] Prospect wise, [Jeremy] Jackson brings a little more size and Banks brings a little more explosiveness. However, I think Sayed has the best ball skills of the three.”
Sayed is the crown jewel of the walkon class so far, garnering three stars from Rivals.
MI K Jeremy Ross will walk on in Ann Arbor:
Two Pioneer players also plan to walk-on college programs in the fall. Jeremy Ross, a first-team AP Division 1 kicker, at Michigan and Omari Robinson, an offensive lineman, at Grand Valley State.
MI TE Dylan Esterline from Blissfield (pictured at right) will join Michigan in the fall, as either a tight end or defensive end:
“(Being a walk-on) will make me go up there with a little bit of an extra fire,” said Esterline, who had 21 catches for 384 yards and four touchdowns last fall for Blissfield. “I know it’s going to be a challenge. The coaches are really good with walk-ons. Coach (Rich) Rodriguez was a walk-on at West Virginia and has a place in his heart for them.”
That quote also gives a pretty good indication of the importance Rich Rodriguez puts on the walkon program.
Tate Forcier's former teammate, CA LB Quintin Tucker, has been planning to walk on in Ann Arbor for quite some time now, and made it official ($, info in header) shortly after Signing Day. Like Sayed, he held some small-time offers, but chose to pay his own way in Ann Arbor instead. He played DE in high school, but has size more suited to the linebacker position. If he can get a little faster, that's probably where he'll play in Ann Arbor. Highlights:
This is definitely not a comprehensive list of preferred walkons, and we'll continue bringing updates as they become available.
This should be a somewhat-hectic update, since 2011 prospects were neglected last week due to Signing Day 2010. Things should calm down again in the next couple weeks, and the 2011 recruiting primer is coming soon.
OH QB Braxton Miller does not have Michigan in his top 5:
In addition to Ohio State, Alabama and Florida, Miller said he was also seriously considering Georgia and Notre Dame right now.
The Wolverines are a longshot for him, but he'll remain on the board until he starts trimming down the list. In the 2011 recruiting prospectus, I'll give a little more clarity on Michigan's needs at QB in the class.
I removed SC QB Everett Golson, who committed to North Carolina.
The Wolverines have offered MI RB Justice Hayes ($, info in header). Though he grew up a Spartans fan, the Michigan offensive system is a better fit for his skill set. It will be interesting to see how that plays out in his recruitment.
Michigan is showing interest in FL WR Sammy Watkins, from South Fort Myers high school. Other schools that have been in to see Watkins include Ohio State, USC, Florida, LSU and a number of other high-profile schools. The 6-2, 190-pounder runs a 4.5-second 40-yard dash, and will be a top prospect nationally.
Michigan has offered IL WR DaVaris Daniels, the son of former NFLer Phillip Daniels.
Though he's been thought of as a Michigan lean for quite some time, MI WR DeAnthony Arnett has the Wolverines outside his top 3. USC, Notre Dame, and State lead, with the Wolverines in a group of 5 following that top group. Tom says not to read too much into it yet.
Midnight Maize, perhaps best known for their photoshop work on MGoBoard, recently interviewed AZ OL Andre Yruretagoyena (hell of a name, that), who holds a Michigan offer. Yrure… Yrureta… that guy attends Chapparal, the same school that provided Michigan with Craig Roh and Taylor Lewan last year. Greatest hits:
I'm planning on taking a visit to Michigan ASAP and Taylor said he'd be my host or whatever. I'm really looking forward to it because Michigan is my favorite school with Oregon.
Nastyness, finishes blocks, fast, technically sound, good pass blocking, strong punch, wide base. Everyone can always improve but I'd like to get a lot stronger, and faster. I didn't let up a sack this season but I'd still like to get better at pass blocking, and keeping a wider base when I run block."
Yruretagoyena (That's going to be fun to type all the time...) plans to decide after his season. Craig Roh's dad posted a little info on the Scout free board:
Talked to a chaparral parent who saw him play all last year and said he is a stud. Started playing late and the light bulb "went on" during the season. Expect great things from him....and this guy knows how to evaluate players. We should have a good shot at him with Craig and Taylor both knowing him. the Chaparral to Michigan pipeline for the top kids should be pretty strong.
Take it FWIW.
OH OL Aundrey Walker, a product of Ted Ginn Sr.'s Glenville program, now holds an offer from the Wolverines. As per usual, it will be tough to break the scarlet fence around that high school.
Rivals is high on MI OL Anthony Zettel after he impressed at the BadgerSports Lineman Challenge. They also mention that the Wolverines are the team to beat for Anthony. Check out the link for a breakdown of his performance; Zettel is in Rivals's initial 250 watch list.
FL DT Tim Jernigan (pictured at right) is among the top prospects nationally, and though he's almost certainly ticketed for Gainesville, Michigan is in his top 5:
Michigan — "I met some of the coaches. It seems like a pretty good program. It's a place I'd like to look into more."
It sounds like he wants to visit, and anytime the coaches can get a kid on campus, there's a chance. The monstrous defensive line haul the Gators brought in last year might help challengers with Jernugan, as well.
Michigan (and Boston College and Nebraska) offered OH DT Kevin Williams from Toledo:
"I'm very interested in all three," Williams said. "I'm also interested in Notre Dame, Florida State and Ohio State. At this time I really don't have a favorite. All the schools are great."
MGoBlog's own TomVH interviewed Williams, who will make an early decision, and is currently high on the Wolverines. Check out the interview for all the details.
According to MGoBlog's own TomVH, Michigan leads for OH DE Robert Mincey, even though he hasn't received an offer yet.
Michigan offered MI DE Brennen Beyer. This is sort of old news, but I've been focusing on the 2010 class over the past couple weeks, so it hasn't found its way into a recruiting update yet. Beyer is expected at Michigan's junior day on the 20th, and may make an early decision.
TX DE Nathan Hughes is also holding an offer from the Wolverines, though he'll be a tough pull. Texas is expected to offer this weekend, which could result in a commitment. Hughes does come from the same high school as Terrence Robinson and Mark Ortmann.
Rich Rodriguez traveled to Springfield High School a couple weeks ago to drop in on OH LB Trey DePriest:
The business of football recruiting — and don’t be fooled, this is a business — is in full swing, and high-profile college coaches from across the country wanted to make sure Trey DePriest knew they were in town.
Trey is a huge priority in the class of 2011, and I believe he's planning to attend the next Michigan junior day (more on that as the February 20th date approaches). A little additional fluffy stuff and a troubling development in his recruitment from the same article:
DePriest is a 6-foot-2, 220-pound junior linebacker with terrific football instincts, natural speed and strength and a handshake that rivals the strongest grip. He’s 16 years old and he bench-pressed 185 pounds 28 times at a recent combine.
That’s not all these colleges see, though. His grades are good, and he’s kept a level head throughout this process. He’s visiting Alabama this weekend with assistant coach John Cupps.
That was a couple weekends ago.
When Michigan dropped in to Boyd Anderson High School before Signing Day, they were looking not only at Demar Dorsey, but also his 2011 teammate, FL LB Kent Turene. I've added him to the recruiting board, and you can check out his film from SoFlaFootball at the link. Tom has an interview with Turene coming up today.
Though Tyler Moore holds a Michigan offer, he has committed to Nebraska, where his father played (and where he'll enroll early). However, that hasn't stopped Michigan from showing interest in his teammate, FL S Alex Dixon.
The headlines make it pretty obvious, but Michigan is at or near the top of the list for two Ohio prospects. OL Brandon Jackson "has Michigan high," and Michigan might lead for ATH Rico Butler, given that headlines asking questions on recruiting sites are almost always answered with "yes." Both articles are $, but the money shots are in the titles.
TN QB/slot/DB/ATH Jabriel Washington holds a Michigan offer, according to Tom. No word on what position Michigan's coaches would like to see him play, but his film is impressive on both sides of the ball:
I don't even know where to put the kid on the recruiting board for now. I guess QB, until we get further clarity where the coaches want him.