Clemson baptizes guys at practice. Is that a countable hour?
It was pointed out that Ron Lee's sudden absence from the Michigan staff passed without mention here; that it did. That occasionally happens when I throw something up on the Fanhouse that's specifically Michigan-related.
Expanding on the above-linked: Lee did seem unable to get any of his charges to improve in hindsight, but that's just hindsight. Remember when we were big fans of Morgan Trent? Yeah, that was about eight games into the season. Maybe more. Once you got past Hall the cornerback talent Lee was presented with was mediocre at best. Anyone who's followed this blog over the past couple years knows that Michigan's been snakebit at corner in recruiting. A full list of those available to Lee:
- Hall. Granted, he's very good.
- Trent. Fast as hell but seemingly incapable of cutting fast enough to bother anyone on short routes. (This may be the much-referred-to "hips" and "swivel" jargony football experts throw out on draft shows.) Was rated and came to Michigan as a wide receiver and sort of looks like a wide receiver out there.
- Charles Stewart. Future safety. Destroyed in game against Minnesota.
- Johnny Sears. Redshirt freshman sleeper who was clearly not ready. One year of varsity high school football before coming here. Lee can't really be blamed for his struggles, nor should Sears be written off just yet.
- Brandon Harrison. Five-eight guy who bounced to safety and back, played in the nickel this year. Main contribution was missing a few tackles, IIRC.
This is the long way of saying that whatever the reasons for his hasty departure, they probably aren't entirely, or even mostly, about the secondary's struggles at the end of the year. (Safeties were supposedly still coached by English, though it seems odd to have one coach for just the cornerbacks.)
So what else is there? Recruiting, I guess. It's been widely speculated that the staff shakeup last offseason was a major factor in Michigan's crappy recruiting year (other factors: 7-5 2005, ill-advised decision to split Michigan recruiting up amongst various staff members, general bloody-mindedness of the universe). Perhaps Lee was a part of that, and if you're going to have a guy who only coaches a few players, especially when your DC is a secondary coach, he'd better be a bang-up recruiter in the Orgeron mold.
So there's my completely unfounded speculation as to the reasons Lee was let go and a projection for his replacement: a pretty face who coaches "the secondary" but mostly goes into people's homes and steals the athletic children. So a Viking. Nordic hhhyyyyarr.
Bits. Tingly. Though His Eviliness Mark Shapiro left ESPN around about a year ago, those pesky "contracts" and such have left his Evil Fingerprints all over the WWL. But no longer. The Big Lead connects the dots on a string of recent cancellations and concludes:
When the powers that be at ESPN cut the cord on Stephen A. Smith's fledgling abortion of a TV show, Quite Frankly last week, it became the sixth brainchild of former honcho Mark Shapiro that was put to sleep. The only one left standing? Cold Pizza (aka 'Vietnam'), which recently lost its marquee draw, Woody Paige, and is on the verge of losing its host, Jay Crawford. (The other five shows that got clipped, says a source, are Cheap Seats, Dream Job, Classic Now, ESPN Hollywood, and ESPN New Year's Eve.)
(Odd... where are the scare quotes around "marquee draw" in "marquee draw, Woody Page"?) They've got insider email projecting a dim future for "Cold Pizza," as well. I could care less what jobless invalids can watch instead of "Heat of the Night" reruns at 10 AM on weekdays -- note to self: season 2 finale coming up Monday -- but this snippet is basically angels coming down and singing hosannahs:
All of those shows were designed to reach out to the lite sports viewer; show them a different side of sports. That was Shapiro's mantra. If Cold Pizza goes the mantra will be dead (but the show has been so whitewashed now, a warmed over version of sports center, one can argue the mantra is already dead)...
Hallelujah! Praise Norby! Now that "sports lite" extracurriculars are getting hacked to death, can we do something about the sports lite that's infiltrating the actual games?
I was going to do this... but Braves & Birds beat me to it and did it with such vicious aplomb that I could add little. Then I was going to summarize it, but Badger Sports Fan came back from the dead and did it for me. So I'll just link to the latest round of internet HeisemensPundits-bashing. In summary: the national championship game was the apotheosis of offensive scheme, never mind the 84 total yards ceded by Florida's defense. Then people laugh at him. Good times.
This has probably been posted but I'm glad Coach D is taking this rivalry seriously. Apparently he installed a countdown clock in the Duffy weight room that is counting down each second to the UM game.
Yes. That's exactly what Michigan State needs: more focus on the Michigan game to the exclusion of everything else on the schedule. Just in case they were ever thinking of winning a game after it ever again.
Query: what should this clock be labeled? ("Countdown to Disappointment" was a submission from the Victors, por ejemplo.)
I'm sure he'll be much better than Henne. The East-West Shrine game this weekend that features a few Wolverines (Breaston -- Johnny's sure to watch -- Barringer, and Biggs) and former Wolverine Matt Gutierrez, a late replacement for Chris Leak. If you find yourself without anything to do Saturday afternoon.
Yes... I'd say "likely." Toledo Blade headline on Ryan Mallett:
Texas QB likely to land at UM
We've all been stung by the insane decommit of Jerimy Finch, sure, but since Mallett is, you know, in class right this very minute I think "likely" sells our chances a bit short.
Etc.: Hairston-Porter article in the news. Must not smash face.
It's mailbag time, which means a lot of people write things that aren't me and I respond to them, hopefully in slightly less lazy fashion than newspaper guys.
First, frequent commenter Other_Andrew puts in the time to break down the Pernicious Michigan Bye effect in convincing fashion:
You once mentioned "beware the Michigan bye" or something to that effect. Two months ago, I did a little research on that issue (because I've long noticed it as well), and here's what I found:
There is quite a skew â€“ especially when you consider the fact that Michigan has the best record in the conference over this time period â€“ these teams should all have a leg up just based on the fact that they don't play Michigan. Below is place followed by conference record. There are only three instances of a finish third place or higher. Three out of 28. There are nine finishes in the bottom two (counting ties), eleven in the bottom three. Granted, Ohio State and Michigan finish near the top very often which takes up potentially high slots, but this list seems more than coincidentally lousy:
Indiana --> 4t (5-3)
Northwestern --> 10t (0-8)
Indiana --> 8 (3-5)
Northwestern --> 10 (2-6)
Iowa --> 6 (4-4)
Wisconsin --> 7t (3-4-1)
Iowa --> 3t (6-2)
Wisconsin --> 7 (3-5)
Illinois --> 11 (0-8)
Purdue --> 2t (6-2)
Illinois --> 7t (2-6)
Purdue --> 4 (6-2)
Minnesota --> 4t (5-3)
Iowa --> 11 (0-8)
Minnesota --> 5t (4-4)
Iowa --> 8 (3-5)
Indiana --> 4t (4-4)
Northwestern --> 10t (2-6)
'02: (the year OSU and Iowa missed one another, both
Indiana --> 10t (1-7)
Northwestern --> 10t (1-7)
Penn State --> 9t (1-7)
Wisconsin --> 7t (4-4)
Penn State --> 9 (2-6)
Wisconsin --> 3 (6-2)
Purdue --> 8 (3-5)
Illinois --> 11 (0-8)
Add in '06:
Purdue --> 4t (5-3)
Illinois --> 10t (1-7)
Combined record: 74-128 (36.6%)
Average place: 7.5 (note, I counted a 4t as 4.5 in all cases - three way ties get the benefit of the doubt and still only gain a half point, not a full point)
I didn't have time to pull in all the data for the other schools, so I don't know how many standard deviations away from the mean we are, but I'm guessing it's several. So firstly, it doesn't bode well for the fortunes of Indiana or Iowa next year.
However, I'm more interested in exactly why this keeps happening. Part of the reason is that the OSU game is protected and they usually finish near the top of the league. MSU is also protected and, aside from this year, they always finish in the middle. So that is probably PART of it, but that should go double for OSU considering they are protected against UM (best record over the time period) and PSU (third best record? Maybe fourth?). Yet, they missed Wisc this year and undefeated Iowa in '02. I suppose I would have to check out their entire schedule to be fair, but I don't have time right now.
My theory (might be a not-terrible one): Teams need to get fired up for the coming season early on in order to have a good year. We can look at Michigan this season for an example. As soon as Ecker was tackled by 38 Cornhuskers, every player on the team began preparation for a stellar 2006. And they delivered. [This email was sent before the Rose Bowl, if anyone takes issue with Andrew's characterization here. - ed.] So, perhaps when a team knows that Michigan is not on their schedule, they don't prepare as hard in the offseason, thinking that the schedule looks favorable. So they relax a bit and it costs them during the season. I dunno. Iowa over the next two years, missing UM and OSU will be interesting to watch. I just think that the data is too compelling to say it's just a random anomaly. But maybe that's all it is...
First, excellent work there. I tried to add up OSU and MSU's record over that timespan of 14 years and came up with impossible numbers. OSU came out as 86-26-1, which is one game extra, and despite reviewing the numbers like six times I got 50-66-1 for State, which is five games too many. Engineering, ladies and gentlemen!
In any case, our protected opponents are around 59.5% in the league, give or take a percentage point or two. Since OSU and MSU make up about 1/4th of our bye team's schedules (it's actually slightly less since occasionally a team will miss both MSU and UM or UM and OSU), the protected-games effect would explain our below-average bye opponents... if their average record was around a 46 or 47% winning clip. Thirty-six percent? Well, the football gods are angry at more than Michigan safeties, evidently.
As for your projected explanation... I don't buy it. I don't think the presence or absence of Michigan on the schedule is enough to explain things like going 0-8 in conference or whatever. Any reduced motivation because these crappy teams aren't going to get their heads kicked in by Michigan is offset by the prospect of getting away with one less hiding, IMO. Our consistently dreadful bye opponents is just the universe being bloody-minded.
Just thought I'd pass this along to you in case you haven't seen it. Gotta check out Zoltan Mesko's Facebook picture. Your Zoltan t-shirts and nicknames are hilarious, but honestly, it doesn't get much better then the man himself using the Facebook to promote his new, technologically advanced athletic prowess.
Oh, and if you check out the Facebook groups he belongs to, one of the first few that's listed is the "Official Facebook mgoblog Fan Club." Zoltan reads your site! OMG! Plus, the fact that you have a Facebook group dedicated to you with 22 members means, correct me if I'm wrong, that you have hit the big time.
And, yeah, I'm a 20 year-old college kid that doesn't even go to UM who sent an e-mail to an adult regarding an 18 or 19 year-old male's HILLLLARIOUS Facebook page. And there is NOTHING wrong with that.
I couldn't get to the Zoltan facebook page -- probably some bullcrap "laws" about "restraining orders" -- but Greg helpfully forwarded along "the Puntinator":
For those with poor eyesight, the left side reads "The Puntinator"; the right "My Mission Is To Pin You Deep." I have no insight to add here, except that's awesome.
This one is depressing.
After today's dispiriting loss, I went and looked -- I was actually at the last Michigan win in the Rose Bowl, 1/1/98. That was the last time I saw the Rose Bowl in person; obviously, it's my fault that Michigan hasn't won there since.
Then I kept looking. and found further proof that Lloyd Carr simply can't handle jet-lag. Here's the list of every game they've played since 1/1/98 west of Minneapolis:
W 11/28/98 @ Hawaii 48-17
L 09/16/00 @ UCLA 20-23 (damn Rose Bowl!)
L 09/08/01 @ U-Wash 18-23
L 09/20/03 @ Oregon 27-31
L 01/01/04 vs. USC -- Rose Bowl
L 01/01/05 vs. Texas -- Rose Bowl
L 12/28/05 vs. Nebraska -- Alamo Bowl
L 01/01/07 vs. USC -- Rose Bowl
So, yeah, 1-7 since the last Rose Bowl victory in games west of the furthest-west conference possibility. And the one victory was against powerhouse Hawaii, who finished without a single victory that year.
I'm not going to call for Carr's head. I like the guy. He's a Michigan man. But maybe he can miss the connection in Denver next time, eh?\
Yeah. The worst part is that many of those losses were flukefests: the UCLA game featured Hayden Epstein missing 27 yard field goals and an E3W headline -- "Epstein Picked Last At Kickball" -- commemor
ating the event that a football player snatched from one of my compatriot's hands and promised to show Epstein, mischievous gleam in his eye. We were about to go up two scores on Washington when they blocked a field goal and ran it back for a touchdown. The next play was a short out (IIRC) that the receiver batted into a DB's hands for another cheap touchdown. We dominated that game. *We* blocked a field goal for a touchdown against Oregon and still managed to lose the special teams battle by two touchdowns. The Texas game was a classic decided on the last play; it appeared that Shazor actually brushed Mangum's FGA with his elbow and, adding terrible unconsolable pain to injury, that the slightly deflected ball then went through Burgess' hands. Had Shazor's arm moved a centimeter either way, that field goal is blocked and everyone around these parts is a lot happier. (Let's not talk about [BOWL REDACTED].)
Right, this goes back to the Angry God thing.
What's up with people randomly posting comments on sports blogs in ALL
CAPS WITH LOTS OF !!!!!!!!! EXCLAMATION POINTS?
I meant to ask you this at the basketball game. It's like '94 when
AOL users were suddenly dropped into the depths of USENET.
It's just odd to me, because I read a lot of different types of blogs
and it's only the sports blogs where you see this type of thing (not
the sports forums, message boards, etc).
I hope you aren't referring to the commenters here, whose bad behavior usually consists of calling each other losers in the most high-faluting language available. If you're referring to The Fanhouse... well... AOL. I have to read every comment left to make sure that naughty words or tasteless jokes about Mario Danelo's death get deleted, and it makes me want to cry. I am often tempted to delete everything. But what can you do? Even the comments here took a sharp downward turn late in the season. I'm considering various schemes to combat drive-by OMG LOL flamers. It shouldn't be a problem in the offseason, but I need a button to push to cut down on the guys who spell lose "loose".
Isn't Firefox 2's integrated red-underline spellchecker the best thing ever?
Hells yes! Did I write that last one? Not tellin'.
I present the weekend in Michigan sports:
- The hockey team does its usual Saturday mail-in, losing 2-1 to a tenth-place Northern team and dropping further behind Notre Dame and Miami. Michigan is in severe danger of missing the tournament for the first time in sixteen years.
- The basketball team is obliterated by Purdue. At 2-1, the dread spectre of yet another NIT appearance looms.
- Safety Jerimy Finch, the consensus best recruit in Michigan's class not named "Mallett," decommits. To go to INDIANA. Delightfully-named tiny scatback Marquis Maze is contacted by Michigan recruiting people and mentions that Michigan coaches haven't contacted him in months and he's going somewhere else.
So... yeah. Also the Pistons lost to Atlanta and the Oilers have returned from the Year of Pronger to their usual "maybe we'll scrape into the playoffs, but maybe not" selves. I'm cranky.
What's Wrong With... Hockey.
- The second powerplay unit. I can think of no better summary of Michigan's shocking State-like lack of depth than what purports to be our second power play unit: Brandon Naurato, Brian Lebler, Travis Turnbull, Matt Hunwick, and Mark Mitera. No offense to any of those players (except perhaps Hunwick, who is a senior but still causes me to say "what the hell were you thinking?" at least once per night), but that's a checking line.
- There are two and a half defensemen I'm actually confident in. Kampfer keeps getting yanked for making horrible turnovers and Chris Summers has been little better. The NHL must really love the latter's skating (gorgeous, to be fair), because he's consistently beaten along the boards for pucks, often finds himself wildly out of position, and just gives me the heebie-jeebies in general. Throw in Hunwick's usual maddening play, and bleah.
- Goaltending. I've said my piece on this before. Sauer can't be blamed for what happened Saturday. The first goal may have been a little soft -- short side and under the glove -- but that was on a breakaway. Other than that, he was excellent. Unfortunately, that stands out as the exception.
So that appears to be defense, offense, and goaltending. The problems are comprehensive. Three guys who you can leave out of any hockey-team related bitchign you may do: Hensick, Johnson, and Rolfhs. Each has been playing near the height of his ability.
What's Wrong With... Basketball.
What's Wrong With... Recruiting.
God, I don't know. What a weird year. There's an unprecedented amount of talent in state that we manage to get very little of. Colasanti is enamored of Penn State from the beginning for some reason. Sawtelle is a Tennessee legacy. Barksdale is a needy primadonna who gets angry at the coaches for not remembering the exact sequencing of their secret handshake. Dionte Allen flees to Florida State once they tell him he can be their offensive coordinator. Taurian Washington is the second OLSM kid in two years to go to OSU. Now we've lost a recruit to... and I can't stress this enough...
Only time will tell whether Finch is brilliantly prescient or, you know, not. I'm betting on "not," myself. What a bizarre decision: premiere program coming off 11-2 season that plays in largest stadium in the country versus basketball school that occasionally scratches out a Motor City Bowl bid and plays in front of something like 20,000. This is the worst decommitment ever.
Now you'll excuse me. I have to find a flat surface to bang my head against.
Note for confused bloggers wishing to vote in the things which aren't the "Suxors." There is a form that you vote at. Here is where the Voting Machine is.
Your full list of early enrollees: Ryan Mallett, Vince Helmuth, Austin Panter, and Artis Chambers. The first three were already known to be enrolling... well... now, but Chambers is a surprise.
It's been a bad week for the kind of person who idly wonders about building a sterilization ray when he encounters most people, even when they aren't using one game, no matter how lopsided, as vindication for whatever crackpot theories they espouse. I've spent much of the week sputtering in helpless rage, so I'll let a decidedly lucid SMQB make the point:
First rule of order, as it were: recognition and celebration that sometimes this game makes no sense. Maybe we're fools for attempting to impose decorum on entertainment fundamentally fueled by its predilection for shock and anarchy.
Certain truths emerge which cannot be reconciled with any other existing facts or theories.
- - -
But we try to make coherent the naturally disordered anyway, even as our efforts at methodically synthesizing disparate facts are repeatedly mocked. In some way, then, method must account for anarchy, or inevitably succumb to it. Because this isn't science; sometimes this game makes no sense.
The bowl season - not only the mythical championship game, but also the Rose and Fiesta bowls, most prominently - vindicated the November conversation and SMQ's resume argument in myriad ways, primarily by broadcasting live to a stunned nation unmitigated dismantlings of the two teams it was repeatedly assured were "the best" and had only a little more than a month earlier engaged in a timeless struggle of wills for unquestioned supremacy rather than put on just another entertaining, emotional shootout on the same level of play as, say, Louisville-West Virginia.
But what SMQ would most like to point out in light of Monday's merciless pantsing of the team officially earmarked as the "best" in America through the three-month regular season is not that Ohio State was "exposed" or that Florida "proved" to humbled skeptics the indomitable essence that dwells eternally in its collective soul of souls. Rather, he'd like to defend the conviction that Ohio State really was, in fact, the "best" team in the nation from September through November, in the sense the Buckeyes' cumulative performance over that span deserved by all available evidence to be considered superior to that of any other team, and offer the untimely demise of that perception Monday as evidence there is nothing dwelling in the blood pumping through a team's metaphorical veins that can tell us anything about any single performance outside of itself; that is, what occurred in the championship game, like any other, was representative only of the championship game, and should inform our opinions about its participants only as an addition to the months-long whole. A prominent addition, of course, but by no means the all-defining one or, very importantly, one that can be extrapolated to prove great inner truths about certain conferences or larger trends within - unless, of course, you're willing to argue the relative merits of Ohio State's "speed," however that is supposed to be measured, and by extension that of Michigan, Iowa, Penn State and Texas, in relation to the bodily-kinesthetic intelligence of Vanderbilt and South Carolina, which each fared exponentially better against the Gators than the Buckeyes. Sometimes this game makes no sense.
Indeed. In my formative years trawling through various Rivals message boards I stumbled across a wonderfully dorky post that burned itself in my mind and fundamentally altered my perception of college football. This was in the aftermath of some Purdue-Michigan game or another that ended 31-3 in favor of Michigan. Attempting to cope, some engineer or another doodled out this ASCII image of Gaussian football genius:
|| __ __ ||
|| / \ / \ ||
\// \ / \\/
/ P \/ M \
/ /\ \
--/ ___--/ \--_____\--___
He then explained: the two uncapped pyramids are normal distributions of overall performance labelled "P" and "M"; the arrows display the actual performances turned in that day by the respective teams. On a good day for Purdue and a bad day for Michigan, Purdue could win. On an average day, they would lose but not by four touchdowns, by God. The assumption that the winner of any particular game is obviously the better team is just that, an assumption. When the score is 31-3 or 41-14 you can be fairly certain that assumption is a good one. But never sure.
One thing you would think, though: the bonafide #1 and #2 teams in the country would have pyramids damn near on top of each other. And unless probability was really screwing with us the games they produce would more often than not be worth watching after, say, halftime. Unfortunately, this does not appear to be the case.
As the Not Fiesta got more and more lopsided it seemed much less a vindication of the BCS for having chosen the two "right" teams and more a vicious rebuke of it for having the presumption to pick two teams at all. I've made this point before, but here it goes again: college football has the sparsest data of any sport anywhere in the world. Teams play a mere 12 games per year and far fewer than that are actual "games" rather than glorified exhibitions with a 90% or better chance of victory for a powerhouse. At the end of the year we have but the barest suggestion that one or two teams are better than the remainder, a suggestion so bare that the presumed Greatest Team Ever This Year got stomped 41-14, raising questions not about Florida's place in the Not Fiesta but rather that of the GTETY. Submitted that last year everything worked fine, but as King Kaufman points out...
It also means that three times in the past six years the BCS has offered up a Championship Game that was a blowout.
It's one thing if a title game at the end of a tournament is a rout. At least both teams plausibly played their way in. But when a system pulls two teams from the multitudes and places them in the final by fiat, that final had better be a damn good game more often than not. A lot more often. It had better be a fluke, rather than routine, for one of the teams to look like it doesn't belong.
The frequency of pretenders getting to the title game is one more reason to dislike the BCS, which brings us to about 1,800.
Eventually, the BCS is going to collapse under the weight of its own stupidity. That stupidity was in full flower this year, with the Boise State upset over Oklahoma and the Florida pole-axing of Ohio State combining to illustrate beautifully that judging teams on paper and declaring that two and only two will play for the title just doesn't work.
On the balance, there have been far fewer satisfying matchups between undisputed titans than vicious melees between indistinguishable teams vying for their place in the stupidest playoff in the world.
Which is why I felt... zo unsatysfyed after the fireworks and confetti and crystal whatever.
Ga-tors, Ga-tors, We Stick It In You.
Ugh! The official winner of the inagural MaxwellPundit?
Andre Ware. Er... Hawaii QB Colt Brennan, AKA "Timmy Chang++." I'm appalled at my fellow voters for going with the default player you didn't see fail instead of the much better, though flawed, candidates that actually played in the season's most important games. Tenuous justifications of schedule strength universal in his selections prop up Alabama (a 25-17 loss), Purdue (awful defense), Oregon State (loss), and Arizona State (awful defense) as indicators that Brennan was battle-tested or something. But shiny stats rule all, I guess.
Etc.: Entertaining story on the '87 Fiesta from ESPN the Magazine. (Via FO); problems with referees in the WCHA... hey, at least you didn't get called for like 80 penalties against the worst team in the league by a guy who has to be "Bull" from "Night Court"
Two notes from various sources:
Yards After Mundy is no more. Ryan Mundy will not return for a fifth year. His shoulder was cited as the reason and we can leave it at that.
No we can't: ARRRRRRRRGH TACKLE SOMEONE ARRRRGH.
(Note: upon hearing this news my mind wandered and I decided that he was in my Michigan Secondary From Hell, which features Mundy and Cato June at the safety spots and Todd Howard at one corner, but who's the other corner? And have I stiffed Ernest Shazor?
This also spurred further cogitation about various other Unit Groupings From Hell -- tellingly much more difficult to compile than the secondary, which sprang to mind virtually unbidden. Linebacker would be Zack Kaufman, Scott McClintock, and just lost the services of Prescott Burgess after his fine senior year. Right tackle is Courtney Morgan. David Underwood at RB, etc, etc. Let's hear it for painful thought exercises!)
Andy Moeller may be movin' on out. Persistent rumors around the Stanford campus have Moeller joining Harbaugh's staff in some capacity. He wasn't announced in a round of recent hirings that did not include an offensive line coach. There are other rumors out there about staff changes but nothing I have anything quasi-reliable on.