chance of bowl: 13.6%
This conclusion was forgone but not official:
ANN ARBOR, Mich. - Mario Manningham confirmed Monday he will skip his senior season at Michigan to enter the NFL draft.
"It was a hard decision, but after discussing it with my family it was the right one for me to make right now," Manningham said in an interview with The Associated Press while driving home to Ohio. "I've heard I will be drafted in the first round because of the lack of depth at wide receiver."
Let us remember the good times:
I well what uh okay.
A recruiting addendum left out of this morning's post by oversight: a number of commits are taking visits elsewhere. TX RB Sam McGuffie was at A&M last weekend. PA FB Christian Wilson was at UNC. NJ LB Marcus Witherspoon was at Tennessee. JB Fitzgerald was supposed to visit Michigan State but apparently did not. How serious is the threat posed here? Depends on who you ask and whom you ask it about. McGuffie doesn't seem like a serious threat to leave since Michigan retained Fred Jackson, and Fitzgerald didn't even take the trip he was supposed to.
Witherspoon and Wilson are tougher to read, though. Witherspoon's coach thinks this is no big deal:
Walsh said Michigan is still Witherspoon's top choice. "He's just exploring other options," Walsh said.
"Other options" include six coaches, including ones from Penn State and USC to go along with Tennessee, slated to visit Witherspoon's school this week. Witherspoon himself is saying things that are less positive, though those quotes remain locked behind paywalls. Wilson's got another trip set up for BC and seem concerned about his role in the Rodriguez offense. Probably 50-50 with both at the moment.
So with a couple linebackers wavering, a surprise commit from Cardinal Mooney linebacker Taylor Hill would be a nice bonus. This remains unconfirmed at the moment, but mods over at Recruiting Planet are usually reliable about these things, especially when it comes to Ohio. RP is an offshoot of Buckeye Planet. Scout is now listing Hill as a Michigan commit.
Hill is a low four-star top 250 type to Rivals (Scout gives him three stars) who committed to Oklahoma over LSU in the summer, then had the misfortune to switch his commitment to WVU two days before Rodriguez took the Michigan job.
You might think that a couple early offers from the likes of Oklahoma and LSU would warrant a higher rating than Hill's currently sporting, but a quick glance at the Pitt combine numbers listed on his Scout page clear that up: 6-2, 190, 5.00 40 yard dash. The 40 isn't that big a deal. Camp 40s are notoriously unreliable and difficult to compare to other times and places. Plus , a 5.00 has to be the result of an injury or some freak occurrence. 190-pound guys who run a five second forty don't get recruited by D-I schools, let alone Oklahoma and LSU. But "190" is kind of a red flag, especially since the kid plays DE at Mooney and will have to switch positions in college. There's a lot of projection here -- he has to get bigger, much bigger, he didn't run that well in the limited time gurus saw him, and he's switching positions -- thus the lowish ratings for a kid with some impressive offers.
Rich Rodriguez has had little opportunity to prove himself at Michigan, as is usually the case a month after your hiring, but he obviously has a few things down. Score-O is not one of them:
Working a crowd, however, is. Rodriguez and most of the staff traded their box seats for spots in the student section to watch Michigan demolish WMU 6-1. The rewards were an incessant stream of "Rich Rod-ri-guez" cheers, one second-intermission "Beat the Buckeyes" (no pressure), and an extended "We Want Pryor." Excitement hung in the air. In January.
Then there is this from new S&C demon Mike Barwis:
For a certain sort of Michigan football fan this is the equivalent of shooting heroin into your eyeballs. Barwis appears to have missed an opportunity to be a professional wrestler: he's got an unparalleled gravelly voice, a catchphrase and finishing move ("the bottom line"), and enough muscle to cave in the side of a Pinto. (Another member of the staff also missed his calling inside the squared circle.) He's also a diplomat and a gentleman judging from his responses to questions about Michigan's existing system and Ryan Mundy.
Reading between the lines on the Mundy response yields this: Mundy was a great kid and a dedicated worker but had no idea what he was in for despite going through four years in Michigan's system. He got his ass kicked, improved, but never quite caught up to the guys Barwis got as freshmen.
Reading between the lines about Michigan's current system: lol, 1970.
Jim Carty flagged down Steve Morrison, who coached with new defensive coordinator Steve Shafer at Western Michigan:
Q: What's Michigan getting here in Scott Shafer?
Morrison: The thing that jumps to my mind is passion. He has so much energy. And it's genuine. He has the ability to inspire people. He's a passionate guy who gives 110 percent. He's fun to be around and fun to work with, that's for sure.
Michigan was old and backwards and clunky and staid in 2007; now they are not. Youth is the order of the day on and off the field. QB coach Rod Smith is 35*. WR coach Tony Dews is 34. OL coach Greg Frey is 35. Secondary coach Tony Gibson is 37. LB coach Jay Hopson is 40. DL coach Bruce Tall is 48. OC Calvin Magee is 44. DC Scott Shafer is 41. At the collegiate level coaching is the domain of old men, but only Carr holdover Fred Jackson (57) cracks 50; most of the current staff isn't anywhere near it. They haven't won anything, and they're looking to be Rodriguez someday. They have nothing but the future.
The total makeover in the program's attitude happened overnight -- on New Year's Eve, it appears -- and many are still getting used to the idea. There is fretting about our long string of NFL QBs coming to an end, the lack of internal hires on Rodriguez's staff, the immediate future of a program that counts 7-5 as an end-of-the-world type of season, the continuation of a tradition unbroken over 40 years.
These are all valid concerns. They are also the sort of talk that would cause Mike Barwis to eat your soul and crap it out as a little doll to follow you around, berating you about how you could lift that car if you weren't such an irredeemable knob.
*(Some ages approximate, as I can't find DOBs for many of these guys and am going by college graduation years; they might be off but by no more than a year or two.)
For a long time it seemed like Michigan was three-quarters of the way up a cliff, looking down. "Hang on" was the mantra of the day, be it to old methods or fourth-quarter leads or Michigan's place in the assemblage of climbers. Rich Rodriguez seems the type to look up, grab Ohio State's leg and throw them down into the mucky-muck, and get ten points for climbing The Wall -- that's worth a five-second bonus for the Eliminator, Kyle.
And it's about damn time.
Robinson didn't play his junior year because of a transfer and is the teammate of Texas commit DeSean Hales, who makes kids in Texas 5A look like befuddled D-class New York kids trying to tackle Mike Hart, so he was under the radar until recently. He's a low four-star to Rivals who was down to Wake Forest and BC before Michigan called him with an offer. Amongst a sea of Hales highlights there is a nice Robinson touchdown run at the end of this clip reel. He's #7:
Robinson seems a terrific fit for the Rodriguez spread, which Klein Oak also runs. You can see he's playing QB in the clips above, but he spends some of his time as a slot receiver and running back. Amongst all the OMG Hales stuff he digs out a wounded duck in this game recap. (There's also an interview with him.)
And this might be surprising given the recruiting ratings and the clips above, but it was Robinson, not Hales, who took home the Klein Area Player of the Year Award:
When we featured Klein Oak wideout DeShaun Hales on the cover of our 2007 high school football preview section, we suggested that the University of Texas signee would be one of the brightest stars in district 16-5A.
Little did we know, Hales would end up having competition to be called the best player on his own roster. But that is how it turned out.
The Klein Sun has named Klein Oak quarterback Terrence Robinson as our 2007 Player of the Year, among the four schools that we primarily cover: Oak, Forest, Collins and Klein.
"Any award is a big award, so to win the Klein Sun Player of the Year, I have really been blessed," Robinson said. "I put in a lot of hard work, and never gave up on the season."
After transferring to Klein Oak from Spring HS and having to sit out all of 2006, Robinson led the 2007 Panthers to a 10-2 overall record, a top district seed in the Division II Class 5A playoffs, and a post-season victory over College Park. Unfortunately, his dreams of leading the Panthers towards a state championship were cut short in a second-round loss to Leander.
"We were extremely motivated and confident coming into the year," said Robinson, who rushed for a district-leading 1,672 yards and 20 touchdowns. "So any time you lose and don't reach your goals, you always leave believing that there was something you could have done better."
This Houston Chronicle article says he's leaning to Wake Forest, but it was written before Michigan got involved.
FL QB Justin Feagin is a dual-threat QB/athlete who was believed to be leaning towards WVU before Rodriguez departed; Michigan is now taking up the chase. Though he had a dynamite year, finishing third in Florida's Mr. Football voting, it was at a very small school and the recruiting sites are down on him. Rivals only gives him two stars. He might fit in with a potential Pryor commit, as his ranking isn't going to scare anyone and he could move to a number of different positions. Miami's actually recruiting him as a corner.
Sunshine Preps has video for perusal.
PA WR Vaughn Carraway has been a fixture around these parts since very early in the recruiting year; Carraway got an early offer and has listed Michigan as his leader since. The staff turnover might do something to disrupt that, but as of December his top three schools were Michigan, Pitt, and... West Virginia. He still plans a trip later this month; he just visited Pitt.
Oh, and That Pryor Guy. The above-linked articles are MOTS for anyone who's followed this kid's story: likely choosing between Michigan and Ohio State, made of light, like Michael Vick without severe emotional issues. This one says in the subhed that Pryor's "first choice seems to be Michigan" but doesn't follow that up with anything substantive other than this...
Michigan is believed to be his top choice, considering that former West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez recently was given the Wolverines' job. Pryor wants to play in a spread offense similar to the one Rodriguez employed with Pat White and the Mountaineers.
...and that's phrased in a highly speculative manner. The Wolverine's Josh Helmholdt in the Free Press:
What are Michigan's chances of landing him? I've been down there with him and, at this point, you can't really put an accurate chance on whether he will sign with Michigan because he's got to take an official visit up to Michigan yet. That is going to be key. I get a sense that he is really, really excited about the opportunity at Michigan. He's told me as much. ... I have very strong confidence after talking with him, after talking with other recruits down there that spoke with him, that he is going to make a decision between Ohio State and Michigan.
Duane Long of Bucknuts.com:
Duane Long, recruiting analyst for Bucknuts.com, also followed the race for Pryor closely, and he believes OSU will ultimately prevail.
"Until one of my contacts tells me he's not going to be coming this way, I'm of the opinion he's going to be a Buckeye," Long said.
"Fans had better buckle themselves in," he added. "There's no chance he makes a decision before signing day, but I still think that decision will be Ohio State."
Ohio State insiders remain uniformly confident, but it seems most impartial observers guess it will be Michigan, with an emphasis on "guess." This will be a tense three weeks.
"Scheme is overrated, I've always believed that," Shafer said. "What's not overrated is getting your kids to play with great effort, great attitude and great enthusiasm. Those are things we can control on a daily basis, and that will be my primary goal. ... The philosophy of our defense is attack-oriented, attack and react. We want to be a defense this is multiple, that is always putting pressure and forcing the hand of the offense. We want to be a penetrating defense.
"If you're going to (ask) what our objectives are? The one thing we want to do is stop the run, force them to throw the ball on first down, create negative plays on first down ... and get ourselves in position to force them to throw the ball. Get them one-dimensional. We don't want to be a defense that sits back. We want to be a defense that creates turnovers and scores touchdowns. Lead the conference in sacks, interceptions and defensive scores. That's how it's always been everywhere I've coached and how it will be at Michigan."
Hey... this guy is going to run an aggressive, in-your-face defense, just like every defensive coordinator ever. I suppose there is a difference here in that Shafer has the numbers to back it up: always better against the run, tons of sacks, strong evidence his corners should wear asbestos pads.