things go poorly
Tom Dienhart probably killed a few people with this baby:
From the talk I'm hearing from my sources, it looks like there is a leading man for the Michigan job now that LSU's Les Miles is out of the picture: Ball State coach Brady Hoke.
Hoke played at Ball State (1977-80) but he worked at Michigan from 1995-2002 as a defensive ends and defensive line coach under Lloyd Carr. His last year in Ann Arbor, Hoke added the title of associate head coach.
Hoke has coached the Cardinals the last five years, compiling a 22-36 mark. But he has the program rising, as Ball State is playing in its first bowl (International vs. Rutgers) since 1996.
Dienhart is wrong, has been wrong, and will be wrong in the future. He was the guy who started the inexplicable "what about Bielema!" thing; though he's nice enough to link to a blog he's got a track record of being hideously wrong about this stuff. Pay it no mind.
Nobody's emailed to say Hoke isn't a candidate, but then again no one has emailed about Jason Whitlock or David Letterman, fellow Ball State alums with an equal chance of being Michigan's next head coach.
The reason Miles couldn't get ahold of Martin on Saturday: Martin was on a sailboat. !!!
Obviously, if that's true Martin should be shot into the sun but I find that very, very doubtful.
Carty in the AA News:
Miles had no idea if Michigan really wanted him.
So Bass [Miles' agent] decided to ask.
He said he called Martin's cell phone on Friday and left a message. He just wanted to know where Miles stood.
Then, when he didn't hear back, the agent said he called Martin again.
"The (LSU) deal was so good that we couldn't just wait," Bass said via phone Tuesday. "I didn't know if we were one of the candidates in the pool at that time. There was just no communication."
Where was Martin? One source places him in Florida, at the Ocean Reef Club in Key Largo. Wherever he was, he didn't call back.
This is incompetence of staggering proportions. If Martin was a president, he would be William Henry Harrison. If he was a world-changing invention, he would be a Segway. If he was a football coach, he would be Charlie Weis.
The current face-saving explanation is that Martin is playing Ferentz and Miles off each other, hoping one will jump at a lowball offer loaded with incentives. When even the face-saving explanation paints you as a fool willing to let one million dollars per year jeopardize the well-being of an entire athletic department, you screwed up. Michigan's chances at landing Miles are now much weaker than they were a week ago, and it's because Martin blew the most important decision in Michigan athletics since 1969. Because he was on a damn boat too busy to return a phone call.
He has a chance to make good with an excellent hire; anything short of that and he should be run out of town on a rail.
Two sources . . .
Have now told me that Kirk Ferentz is at the top of Michigan's list of coaching candidates.
Members of Michigan's search committee leaked today that Ferentz has been made priority No. 1. Lloyd Carr, who's retiring after 13 seasons at Michigan, is pushing for Ferentz, a source said. He has a say in this. Mary Sue Coleman, UM's president and the UI president when Ferentz was hired at Iowa, has a say in this. That's according to logic, by the way.
For those concerned about bloggy stuff, Mark Morehouse is a sportswriter for an Iowa paper. For those concerned about the Ferentz's-agent angle, Morehouse makes it clear this is coming from Michigan's end. For those just plain concerned, well... yeah.
Stunning, probably wrong graph:
Ferentz makes $2.84 million at Iowa, and that's guaranteed through 2012 (that's $14.2 million over the next five years). Michigan knows it's going to take between $3.5 and $4 million to get in the ballpark, with a lot of coaches, not just Ferentz.
This does not jive with the "insulting" offer provided Miles unless this whole fiasco was downright deliberate.
|Head Coach, Navy|
|Head Coach @ I-AA Georgia Southern||1997-2001|
|OC @ Navy||1995-1996|
|OC @ Hawaii||1987-1994|
|OC @ Georgia Southern||1985-1986|
Paul Johnson has carved a winner out of moribund Navy, a grand accomplishment in this era of college football. Navy the ten years before Johnson's arrival:
After an ugly 2-10 first year, Navy has gone 8-5, 10-2, 8-4, 9-4, and is currently 8-4 with the Poinsettia Bowl pending. The last time Navy had five consecutive winning season was 1978-1982, and before that you have to go back to the sixties. Johnson's 6-0 against Army -- the first six-game winning streak in that rivalry's history -- and 5-1 against Air Force. Navy does not suck.
Johnson's record at Georgia Southern is even more impressive. In his five years with the Eagles, Johnson won five conference titles, four national coach of the year awards, and two national titles. He won 86% of his games and turned around a program that had gone 4-7 the year previous; Johnson's first year at GSU resulted in a 10-3 season, the program's best since 1989.
Xs and Os Proficiency: Johnson's specialty is offense, and he's worked wonders with limited talent by taking advantage of what military academy players do have: smarts and discipline. At Navy, Johnson's triple option attack has consistenly landed the Middies in the top 30 in offense, an accomplishment all the more impressive when you consider the game-shortening that naturally occurs when you run the ball all the damn time. At Georgia Southern and Hawaii he lit up scoreboards as well.
The question here is the same that dogged Urban Meyer before his arrival at Florida: can this offense work against top-flight defenses? In Meyer's case, the answer appears to be "as long as you have a robotic hulk-beast that devours all in its path, sure!"
Recruiting: The great unknown with Johnson, as he's never coached at a place that we can gather any data about.
Potential Catches: Ah, but so. Johnson has done all this with a pounding triple option ground attack that hasn't been seen at a major college program since Nebraska made the infinitely wise decision to hire Bill Callahan.
A host of other BCS programs have looked at Johnson but fled the risk of a system often regarded as antiquated, and they aren't nearly as married to the idea of Paul Bunyan on the pocket as Michigan is. The current QBs on the Michigan roster: 6'7" statue Ryan Mallett, 6'5" statue Steven Threet, and 6'5" statue David Cone. The current Michigan QB recruit: 6'5" statue John Wienke. Johnson just wouldn't be able to run his system for two to four years.
Johnson has a history of sniping at the press, too, which no doubt disqualifies him. I heard Belicheck once forgot to feed his cat, so he's out, too.
Also, the guy has a masters degree from Appalachian State.
Relative Compensation: Michigan could easily afford Johnson, but he's a hot name this offseason with SMU and Duke rumored to be pursuing him heavily, SMU with a $2 million per year offer. Michigan would probably have to match that.
Would He Take The Job? Yes.
Overall Attractiveness: Johnson looks to be an outstanding coach. You can't have his results and not be exceptional at what you do; he's working at one of the toughest jobs in the country right now and outperforming all reasonable expectations for what an academy can do in this era of college football. Before that he dominated a lower division much like Jim Tressel and Brian Kelly did.
But he's too much of a risk for Michigan. We have no idea if he can recruit or if his offense can function at a high level, and we know damn well that his offense can't work with Michigan's roster as currently composed. It's not that Johnson can't succeed running something else, but one of his main assets is this clever triple option thing that he's spent better than a decade perfecting; he's much less attractive without that.
It's not really the triple option that bothers me. I kind of like the idea of having an offense unique in major college football, as it would make Michigan (gasp!) difficult to prepare for. But the unsuitability of the current roster to run it would make the first three or four years of implementing it painful, and at 50 Johnson does have enough long term upside to justify the risk. Hiring him to run something else is silly, the equivalent of Notre Dame fans quickly backtracking and saying "wait, Charlie just needs to learn how to be a COLLEGE coach!" when the thing that set him apart was his brilliant NFL mind and his contacts and blah blah blah.
Johnson's a good, maybe great, coach, but a poor fit at Michigan. If I was Maryland or Michigan State or Ole Miss or any hopefully mid-level BCS program, though, he would be top of the list.
Better that Debord? YES YES A THOUSAND TIMES YES
Read this. Several people have urged me to urge you to write Bill Martin with your (polite) opinion on the way this has all unfolded, and Joey provides an excellent exemplar for how you should approach these things. Read the whole thing; Joey also includes an email from a former Michigan player being forwarded around that includes the genesis of the "come sail away" rumor:
Les Miles did want to coach here very badly, and the reports were right. This can be attributed to him being on the phone with a former teammate and very good friend of his until 2:00 am Friday night wondering why he hadn't been contacted yet when Michigan authorities knew about the contract extension. Les was put in a very difficult spot because he had not been assured that the job would be his by anyone at Michigan. There were financial arrangements between third parties beforehand and that was all agreed upon but there was no indication from Michigan directly that the job was his. The discussion of finances before interviews is pretty standard for Michigan when conducting a job search as I was told.
It was apparent that the Michigan admin. had reservations about him (that's another topic all together and can be discussed by someone else) and were not ready to pull the trigger even though the search committee all but confirmed he was the right guy. The search committee, by the way, is a front with no real teeth. When the developments happened yesterday morning with ESPN, Les was put in a real bad position and had to address the issue so that it would not be a distraction. As everyone knows the extension offer was only good for Saturday and he stood to lose a lot of money with no word whatsoever from Michigan about his position. He did what a lot of people would do.
A former player and member of the search committee tried to frantically call the Michigan Admin. as this was all developing and did not get anyone on the phone. Reason why? Sailing.
Contact was made today by Michigan Admin. to Les with Les telling him "door is not closed but closing." The Admin. responded that Les was one of several in a pool of candidates they are considering, and that Michigan wanted someone who was more invested in being at Michigan than at being well paid. Les's agent considered it a dead issue.
It appears that the Michigan Admin. was not all that interested in hiring Les and used the gentleman's agreement of not calling until after the game to his advantage. It looks like Michigan Admin. got over on Les.
Don't blame Les on this one. He wanted to be the head coach here but it seems other people had other agendas. A lot of former players are really upset about the way this was handled, including myself.
Martin's email address is firstname.lastname@example.org for anyone interested in making their case. You're probably as livid as I am after reading that, so you should probably fire off a profanity and threat-laden one to Herbstreit before sending off something more composed to Martin.
IBFC also has an open letter of its own.
Who now? I don't know and it appears no one else does, either. Most of the names being thrown about are complete shots in the dark. Witness this article from St. Louis on Gary Pinkel:
MU coach Gary Pinkel now could be coveted by many other schools seeking coaches, including Michigan, the winningest program in college football history.
Pinkel is a candidate!
Pinkel could not be reached to comment on Monday, but on Sunday night he declined to comment on rumors about Michigan, where coach Lloyd Carr last month announced he would retire at the end of the season.
"I'm not commenting on fiction," Pinkel told the Post-Dispatch, adding, "Nobody's contacted me."
Or the only reason this article is being written is that Pinkel said no one had been in contact when asked. Most of the names out there have nothing behind them, not even rumors, except attractive records. The list of names bandied about -- Schiano, Tedford, Pinkel, Grobe -- is purest speculation; we really have no idea where the search is or where it's going. Apparently the only thing we do know: Brian Kelly is too much of a meanie to be considered.
A possible exception. Angelique Chengelis might have something more solid:
The pool of candidates includes Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz, who two weeks ago was thought to have been off the list. But sources said Monday that Michigan has Ferentz among a number of candidates including Rutgers' Greg Schiano, Wake Forest's Jim Grobe, Missouri's Gary Pinkel, Ball State's Brady Hoke, Cal's Jim Tedford and N.C. State's Tom O'Brien.
At least this one has "sources" backing it, although they appear to be sources that don't know Jeff Tedford's first name. In order, that list is okay, disappointing, disappointing, horrifying, WOOOO, and horrifying.
Quitter! The Free Press has the best headline ever:
ESPN's Herbstreit on inaccurate Miles-U-M report: I will never gather news and report again
This, of course, assumes that stating something completely and totally wrong counts as "reporting news."
Wholehogsports.com is reporting that Arkansas AD Jeff Long has interviewed Clemson coach Tommy Bowden, Tulsa co-offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn and Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English for the Razorbacks' head coaching vacancy.
English isn't likely to get an offer.
Wheee! More fuel for the "Come Sail Away" theory of extreme incompetence infecting all levels of the AD:
I heard, for example, Michigan's "unofficial" offer to Miles was close to "insulting."
The number I heard was $1.8 million, which is exactly what Miles makes at LSU now... or at least until Thursday, which is a low-ball number. (Voracity* of that number is low, BTW.)
*(I know how to use words; inside blog baseball joke.)
Etc.: The Realests run down the top ten options for Michigan now that Miles is gone; MVictors dispatched a correspondent to the Harvard debacle; Miles didn't exactly sound unequivocal on Mike & Mike, though he has at other times and at this point parsing every sentence from him is an exercise in knight errantry. Canadian Us are moving towards joining the NCAA(!!!).
An hour or so ago this blog linked to a Times-Picayune article that said Miles' contract wouldn't get officially done until January:
"We didn't know we were going to a national championship game," Bertman [LSU's AD] said, laughing. "We had arranged to sit down at a leisure time and fix it so it could be brought to the (LSU) Board (of Supervisors) Thursday with our bowl budget.
"Now the chancellor (Sean O'Keefe) and other board members might delay that until the next board meeting in January after the game."
This would give Michigan a faint pulse in re: arrgh get Miles. But LSU's chancellor says NSFMF:
Although LSU Athletic Director Skip Bertman said on Sunday that the contract may not be formally approved until January because of the national championship, O'Keefe said that is not true.
The contract will be ready for the LSU Board of Supervisors to approve during Thursday and Friday meetings, O'Keefe said Monday.
"We are moving this for Thursday consideration," O'Keefe said. "That's the plan. There was no other date discussed."
That would put the nail in the coffin Thursday... or would it? The buyout doesn't appear to be going up:
The only aspects O'Keefe and LSU board members are intentionally being vague on are new clauses that O'Keefe said show Miles' commitment to stay at LSU.
Miles' existing $1.25 million buyout for going to Michigan should remain untouched, O'Keefe said.
Weems called the unknown clauses "ancillary matters" and LSU board Chairman Jerry Shea referred to them as a "win-win" for LSU and Miles.
So, hypothetically, if Bill Martin got religion here he could walk in with a comparable offer and still have a shot. Obviously that's not likely.