Run Offense vs. Iowa

The running game was surprisingly good last week against the one of the better run defenses in the country. The left side of the offensive line, including center Adam Kraus, was great all day and Lentz and Riley, though they had significant problems in pass protection, also contributed to an effective (though not explosive) day for Mike Hart and Kevin Grady. Michigan's draw-based running game worked consistently, gashing the Nittany Lions for most of a critical second half-opening touchdown drive.

Iowa's defense is hard to get a read on. Games against Northern Iowa (I-AA), Ball State (83rd in rushing), and Iowa State (93rd) offer little insight into how the Hawkeyes stack up against Michigan. Ohio State completely throttled Iowa, rushing for over 300 yards against them. For comparison's sake, they got 91 against PSU and 137 against MSU, they aren't that good. While they've stood up decently outside of that one game, it's mostly because they jumped out to big leads against bad teams who then were forced to pass. Illinois' Pierre Thomas went for 100 yards on 15 carries. Kory Sheets of Purdue went for 78 on just 16. Iowa did do a good job against a lot of Indiana carries (44 for 86)... but, uh, that's Indiana. Statistics and common sense indicate that even Michigan's slightly wonky offensive line should be able to line up and smash the Iowa front four.

Michigan's Jekyll and Hyde act may spring up and bite them in the ass, but they should have a successful day running against the Hawkeyes. Mike Hart hasn't been held under 100 yards this year; last year against a much more fearsome version of this exact defense he went for 99. He is real and he is spectacular. Combine that with the hopelessly outweighed and inexperienced defensive line and Iowa has two choices: expose their gimpy secondary against Michigan's inconsistent pass game or hope their players can beat the one on one matchups presented and then tackle Hart. Hobson's choice, that.

Key Matchup: TE Tyler Ecker and C Adam Kraus versus LBs Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway. Michigan was able to get out on Penn State's two outstanding linebackers and the result was a series of big gains that led to Michigan's first touchdown of the Penn State game. Facing a similarly intimidating pair, they'll have to do the trick again.

Pass Offense vs. Iowa

Chad Henne's numbers against Penn State--21 of 32 for 212 yards and two axiom-altering touchdowns to Mario Manningham--seem like a drastic improvement from past games when he struggled to complete half his passes, but a closer examination shows that his performance was no better or worse than any of his others this year, if you adjust for opposing defense quality. Henne was often incapable of finding open receivers (11 instances against PSU) and was only somewhat accurate when he did. His PSU numbers were greatly propped by a profusion of screens and long handoffs (12 in total for 10 completions)--take those away and you get MOTS: 11 for 20 with a number of sacks or two yard scrambles due more to Henne's errors than Penn State's defense. To boot, immediately after Mario Manningham etched himself into Michigan lore last week rumors of injury started swirling around him. I have a bad feeling about his availability for Iowa.

Iowa's secondary is not healthy and it showed last week against Indiana. Blake Powers found open receivers all day both deep and short in Terry Hoeppner's spread offense. With two Iowa secondary starters--safety Charles Godfrey and corner Antwaan Allen--limping around on sprained ankles and the intimidating pass rush provided by Matt Roth and Jonathan Babineaux gone, Michigan should find similarly open receivers, but the inconsistency from the entire passing game has been persistent enough to declare it chronic. Michigan will find some success here but as per usual will underperform expectations.

Key Matchup: Michigan WRs versus Iowa CBs after the catch. Iowa lays back in a passive zone a lot and will keep Avant, Manningham, and Breaston, et al., in front of them. Michigan's going to screw up at some point on most long drives and be forced to settle for field goal attempts. Turning five yards into ten or twenty is going to make the difference on a few drives and probably in in the game.

Run Defense Vs Iowa

Iowa's running game is no longer the humorously melanin-free Sam Brownlee and a bunch of broken body parts. Albert Young has emerged from the sack of cats as a real threat... maybe. It depends on whether you're looking at games against Illinois (13 for 102) and Indiana (26 for 125) or Ohio State(10 for 25). Unfortunately, our run defense--currently 74th--is looking closer to the former than the latter... somehow. It seems like it should be much better, but it isn't. Plagued by repeated, maddening containment issues and Pat Massey's tendency to end plays looking up at the sky, Michigan has ceded gobs of rushing yards to all opponents with a pulse.

It's yet to be determined whether or not Iowa actually has a pulse, despite the numbers. Given what I saw against Indiana the answer is definitely maybe. Young gained most of his yards cutting it outside and just outrunning the Indiana defense. Michigan's linebackers won't allow that to happen, since they're fast. There will be opportunities for Iowa to exploit holes that shouldn't be there because of linebackers overpursuing or losing containment but just outrunning them? You tore your ACL last year, Young, you aren't getting outside with impunity. I call fraud on the Iowa run game. Michigan will largely shut it down; there will be scattered instances of linebackers getting (-2) on their chart for giving me aneurysms.

Key Matchup: DTs Pat Massey and Gabe Watson versus the Zone Stretch. I have confidence that Branch and Woodley will hold up admirably by this point in the year, especially against a backup LT (Lee Gray being lost for the year) and a JUCO transfer at RT. Massey and Watson have to fight the more experienced interior offensive linemen off to make that probable dominance count, though.

Pass Defense vs. Iowa

Drew Tate hasn't seemed quite the same this year for whatever reason and is now missing his best wide receiver, Ed Hinkel, for the year. I could point to more stats, but it's been mentioned before: Iowa has no meaningful ones. Tate's torn up three of the worst pass defenses in Division I over the past few weeks (Illinois: 11oth opponent passing efficiency; Purdue 113th; Indiana 69th) so his numbers are gaudy by there's not necessarily any there there. Michigan has somehow acquired the best pass efficiency defense in the Big Ten (24th nationally), probably because they've played Robinson, Cupito, Stocco, etc. Against Drew Stanton they sat back and got shredded. No one has proven anything.

I do think Tate is a very good quarterback who can lead Iowa down the field with some regularity, but without Hinkel he's somewhat handcuffed. Michigan will focus a lot of attention on Clinton Solomon and make him hit his other receivers. He'll complete a lot of passes, but he'll have to.

Key Matchup: Prescott Burgess/David Harris versus TE Scott Chandler. The play action boot is a staple of the Iowa offense and has been highly effective against Michigan for a long time now.

Special Teams

Both Steve Breaston and Garrett Rivas decided to show up against Penn State and Michigan needed both to win. Breaston has seemingly returned to form after two consectutive strong games returning kicks and punts. Also of note was Ross Ryan's performance against Penn State, which was great. Ryan's punts were all around 40 yards and unreturnable. The special teams seems extremely strong save for the field goal per game that Rivas sends into the sidelines.

Key Matchup: Garrett Rivas versus Stop Shanking Stuff.

Intangibles

Have you f
ound Gorgoroth? Let me tell you about how It entered my life. Before, I was a sinner. I loved dogs of all sorts. I consorted with them, hurling balls willy nilly, taking them for walks and disposing of their excrement, lying down in their dens, "roughhousing." I walked that deep, despondent path of friendship and happy companionship.

Lo, I was wretched.

Seriously, lo.

But then, one day I was walking through the park and I saw this french fry that looked kind of funny. I tilted my head, wondering what this fry was trying to tell me. Tell me deep in my soul. I glanced at it for a moment; nothing. I looked away and tried to catch it off guard; nothing. Finally, I held it in the edges of my peripheral vision, waiting for the french fry to reveal itself to me. I heard a mighty crack and people screaming, screaming something about running home. I felt the hand of Gorgoroth upon me. All was black.

He appeared to me.

He spoke his black gospel. And now I'm saved! Shouldn't you be saved by the Demon Kitten God? Maybe? You'll get back to me? Okay. We meet at the civic center. Free coffee.

Cheap Thrills

Three Things I'd Like To See:

• The interior of the offensive line grinding the young chilluns they oppose into a fine paste.
• JUCO transfer Marshall Yanda single blocking Lamarr Woodley.
• Mario, healthy.

Three Things I Don't Want To See:

• Michigan going to a three wide and then running into a stacked line.
• Anyone other than Mike Hart attempting to pick up blitzing linebackers.
• Any &#$*ing funny stuff on punts.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for On The Road Again (Ugh), -1 for And A Child On The Defensive Line Is A Bad Idea, -1 for You Haven't Beaten Anyone As Good As Us, +1 for Er... Probably.)

Desperate need to win level: 6 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for It Would Be Nice To Win Two In A Row, +1 for It Would Also Be Nice To Go To A Bowl; -1 for But It Would Probably Be The Music City Bowl.)

Loss will cause me to... get slightly cranky, boy howdy!

Win will cause me to... cease watching MAC games in preparation for our bowl opponent.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:Goddammit. I think we should win this game. Iowa is a giant fraud, having beaten Indiana, Illinois, Ball State, Northern Iowa, and Purdue. Not one of those teams is going to even sniff the Motor City Bowl. They lost to a bad Iowa State team by 20; they were completely bitched by Ohio State. Michigan has a crappy record but has played much stiffer competition. If Penn State couldn't do much about Hart is Iowa going to? Doesn't it seem fairly probable that Limpy McAnklestein in the secondary lets someone get a big play? Aren't the chances of #*$@ing funny stuff in the punt game fairly low?

I know, I know, I've doomed us. But what we have here is a lack of a control. Wins have been accompanied both by Kitten Power and predictions of losses. This week we get the kittens but not the prediction of a loss. Not all is lost!

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Manningham again plays sparingly due to the mysterious injury.
• Burgess finally gets it right and UFR does not contain "OMG YOU LOST CONTAIN."
• 24-20, Michigan.

The News From Ann Arbor

What could the news be? Michigan lands really, really big defensive lineman? Someone has devised a way to poke Angry Michigan Safety Hating God in the eye?

Find out at 11 ypsi~dixit. (OMG EVIL TEASER!)

Sadly useful is this EDSBS article on internet fandom and coping with loss. Orson parts the Red Sea of whack job message board posters (guilty) into two violently opposed groups, the "St. Fandrew":

The St. Fandrew type will take to message boards proclaiming their own blind faith in their coach as evidence of their superior virtue and character, indirectly accusing everyone who disagrees with them of the things they boast of being

... and the "Master Shake":

The question for the Master Shake fan is not WHO is to blame, but how to fire the coach, the staff, the groundskeeper, revoke scholarships from all enrolled players, slaughter the existing mascot, burn the stadium to the foundations, sow salt on the ground, and build an entirely new program from foundations on up.

EDSBS's dichotomy is something that rings true across the land. Bill of Eagle In Atlanta declares that BC fans are either "rah rahs" or "wah wahs"; the RCMB has regular, hilarious sectarian struggles between the "Sunshine Blowers" and the "Demand Excellencers."

I am a bad person for many reasons. One of them is the fact that I find Syracuse blog Orange44's tribute to Syracuse's dismal season--a photograph of a crying child at the start of every post--endlessly hilarious.

That is all.

Excellent things that demand reading: Gunslingers goes all Vijay on us and does a lot of comparative yardage and scoring sorting to try and determine exactly which undefeated teams are fradulent or non-. Dave Sez continues its series of fantastic analyitical football articles with something of particular interest to Michigan fans wondering wither Jerame Tuman: the waggle. All Things Longhorn indicates that Jeff Sagarin should not be taken seriously by using his numbers to assert that the Big Ten is the best conference this year.

Sunday Morning Quarterback presents its Thursday Morning Quarterback column on Friday. Confusion! He says this about Michigan-Iowa:

Two teams about which everyone, thus far, has been wrong, wrong, wrong - neither of these ubiquitous top 10 and 15 preseason picks is even ranked! SMQ has kept the faith with Michigan, who continues to seem to him very solid all the way around despite some, shall we say, inconsistency. But Iowa's following last season's come-from-nowhere script to T, only with a better running game, and might rise up and roll like a train through the Big Ten/Eleven the rest of the season. The beast is awakened, and tied for the league lead...
IOWA 27, MICHIGAN 21

I think perhaps the "only with a better running game" misses a key issue, that being that you could probably feature the Iowa defensive line on Orange44's posts and no one would be able to tell the difference. But I've quite literally been as wrong as possible ("this will be the least enjoyable game I've ever seen in Michigan Stadium") this season, so I strongly suggest you think the opposite of what I do. And what I'm thinking now is that you should not send me one million dollars.

Iowa partisan Mark Hasty's Pickin' On The Big Ten also predicts dismal defeat:

It's sad when you don't know whether to be afraid of Michigan or not. This game is at Kinnick, and the Revenge Factor for the Hawkeyes is pretty high, so I'm leaning towards "not." I just hope I'm right.

BED 24
BECOME WHAT YOU ARE 31

Seconded about the sad part.

I am not a robot genius, so I urge you to check the comment threads on the UFR posts, as they often contain useful disagreements, corrections, reinterpretations, and discussions that function as good content I don't have to write. The PSU offense thread is a good example.

If you just can't get enough PSU flickr has more pictures, including this beauty that frames the celebration perfectly. Check out sets from users tienmao and Andrew Morell.

And now for something completely insane. Right, if anyone has access to Joe Paterno's computer and wants to set up some desktop wallpaper that will definitely kill him, Andrew Morrell returns with this... thing:

Your guess is as good as mine. Downloadable in 1024 x 768! Is it my wallpaper? You betcha!

Probably the best Michigan basketball preview you'll find this year has been written and is available up at Hawkeye Hoops. I agree with most of it, including the Horton dogging, which I did in my (somewhat dated) preview after exploring his shocking inefficiency with actual numbers. Later I added my own stat-wonkery to the canon started by Kyle, introducing a simple-but-hopefully-interesting "Shots Per Possession" stat that Michigan finished at the absolute bottom of last year.

Whatevs says whatevs about Bill Simmons, and since I am apparently keeping everyone fabulously up to date on everything that's ever said about the man I provide a link.

Congratulations are in order for Bruce Ciskie, who got bumped up to the money gig in Duluth, Minnesota: college hockey. Don't forget the little people, Bruce.

Chris Perry is about three touchdowns away from being the most successful NFL running back from Michigan since... um. That one three-week burst during which Biakubutuka carried my fantasy team before getting Vince Cartered? Sure.

How did the new safeties do?

Fine except for the two 50 yard plays? Uh.

Harrison obviously took a bad angle on the Hunt run that turned a 15-20 yarder into first and goal, but the broken play ridiculousness is much harder to pin on someone since ABC didn't show a coherent replay of exactly what happened in the secondary. What happened is this: someone either abandoned their deep zone or their man at some point after the Robinson rollout when it looked for all the world like he was going to run. I don't think this was Harrison, who clearly has the deep middle of the field. It could have been Adams, the other safety, but if he was drawn up into man coverage than it would be whoever had that particular guy... which I still think was Adams.

So, one bad play each that led to a huge gain and, in total, ten of PSU's points. Outside of ground zero, though, they did play pretty well. Adams screwed up a zone and allowed an easy 15 yard completion but made a few other very good plays (coming around TE Isaac Smolko and breaking up a sure TD being the best). Harrison didn't show up in any way good or bad aside from the Shazor moment, which I'll take from a freshman. And he is really fast. I think both will be capable in time but now is not that time. Engelmon should return for Iowa and I'm very glad of that.

Hey, could you incorporate some Zen Buddhism in this column?

Comin' right up, koan style.

Why does Mason lead the team in tackles?

Because he can't tackle.

Is this causing a spiritual awakening in anyone? Someone should be getting enlightened around about... now.

What the hell am I talking about? Well, Penn State made a concerted effort to throw short routes against him, relying on their ability to break his tackles to pick up significant yards. This worked. Wait until you see the chart. I think this has been happening with increasng frequency as the year moves along and more and more film of Mason lunging ineffectually at people dashing past him become available. Mason is facing a ton of short routes run at him by teams looking for easy yards. He's pretty good in coverage but I think he's another reason our outside containment on running plays has ranged from abominable to "don't look at the Ark" this year.

Is there a solution to this?

I don't know. The easiest one seems to be abandoning zone coverages and moving more to a cover-two man-to-man look but that's a really drastic change to cover up a hole in a single player's game. Morgan Trent has looked good as the team's nickelback--he stuck Robinson pretty well on a particular play--and maybe if he starts platooning as a starter with Mason it'll reduce what appears to be a major liability, but I'm not one of those guys that assumes everyone on the bench is better than everyone on the field. There's probably a reason Mason is in front of Trent, and if you still believe that irrationally-playing-seniors stuff, well, you haven't been paying much attention.

Hey, what about the chart?

Chart.

What is the deal with that last drive?

I don't know. Robinson made some excellent throws but Michigan also played off, never blitzed until first and goal (except when they sent all of five guys on one play), and generally made things as easy on him as they could in an effort to not give up a big play. In doing so they repeated the mistake they made against Wisconsin by not adjusting their defense to a much more aggressive stance. Playing soft with that much time on the clock eats time, often preventing the offense from mounting a response drive. Michigan had 20 or 30 seconds against Wisconsin and just 50 against Penn State. Without the Breaston return they lose. The advantage of having the ball last in a close game is often overlooked and Michigan played in a way that immediately reduced their chances of getting a last possession.

Passivity also makes much less sense when the offense is going to go for it on fourth down. Allowing medium range passes without serious resistance when the op ponent has four cracks at a first down instead of three is a tactical error since you're relying on the opponent to screw up an extra play. Given that Penn State had way too much time on the clock for it to pressure them in any way, the correct strategy in that situation was to increase your aggression, reducing the chances of each individual first down at the expense of increasing the chance of a big play. Again, this is just my mathematical intuition at this point but I hope to back this with numbers at a later date.

What does it mean for Iowa?

Drew Tate's the kind of guy who runs around a la your headless chicken and then finds someone open after a long time; this is a nervous tendency given the events on the fumbled snap play. Getting Engelmon back will help but Solomon is a deep threat and Tate is the kind of guy who can get it there. Given Hall's excellent deep coverage (they tried it a few times and then abandoned it after it was clear that Hall was saying no sale) we should be fine in man to man but there may be a time or two when Tate buys a few extra seconds and heaves it into a wonky zone.

Iowa's missing Ed Hinkel and so probably doesn't have the ability to exploit the Zen of Grant Mason. Their depth at WR is negligible. After Solomon, Hinkel, and TE Scott Chandler comes RB Albert Young with 12 receptions. The next WR on the chart is sophomore Herb Grigsby, who was unleashed as a starter against IU and exploded for zero yards on zero receptions. Michigan will probably be free to lavish attention on Solomon and take their chances on the random scrub lining up opposite him.

Containing the Iowa run game will be difficult. Albert Young has racked up 715 yards this year, which is already more than their top two rushers from last year combined. He looked good against IU, but everyone does. Iowa's two-TE stretch rushing game is designed to spread the defense, attack the corners, and open rushing lanes when linebackers and defensive backs attack the wrong hole, something Michigan's done with frequency this year. Against everyone except Ohio State the Hawkeyes have ground out scads of yards--and we aren't Ohio State. However, neither are we Ball State.

A note: The "TA" category now includes times when Henne attempts to scramble because he can't find a man. Also I've linked to IBFC's highlights on the appropriate plays; IBFC is awesome.

So what does Mr. Rational Analysis think?

He's a little pissed off.

Let's discuss the playcalling after the Hall interception: it was largely inexcusable. To Carr's credit, he seems to realize that he erred after watching what unfolded after his reversion (and yes, it was a reversion) to 1997 Carr.

However, I don't think he correctly diagnoses what he did wrong. Play by play:

• First and Ten: Somewhat questionable given the obviously stacked line Michigan was playing against but not too bad. Forces them to use their first timeout and gives the best and most consistent player on offense an opportunity to make some yards. The time situation is such that you need to rip a couple TOs away
• Second and Eight. I question the player and the play. Try to get someone moving before the snap and throw them something akin to the slip screen we used a couple times against Wisconsin with Manningham or Breaston; the block provided by the other WR provides a much greater screwup potential for the D. As it was the DB just had to form up on Avant and wait.
• Third and Five. Just the wrong thing to do. Stripping the last TO here is not nearly as useful as taking a shot at a killer first down that would drive the clock down under a minute and put UM very close to strangling the game. PSU dared Michigan to throw, as they had to (allowing a three yard run here is devastating), but Michigan backed down.
• Fourth and Disaster.Carr's comments reveal that he thinks he should have been more aggressive on the previous plays but does not mention anything about the huge error here on fourth down when Carr punted. Michigan had a fourth and four with just under three minutes to go in the game against a team that had expended its timeouts. A first down essentially ends the game given that Michigan would have three plays to run about 40 to 45 seconds off the clock plus a full 25 seconds after the first down. In total that's going to wind the clock to about 20 seconds before a second fourth down, estimating conservatively. Michigan traded the ability to end the game for fifteen yards of field position, which is a complete disaster. The probability of making that fourth down is probably around 40%; the decision isn't even close.

In this situation there is some utility to getting a first down immediately but there is a huge advantage in one once Penn State has expended a timeout or two, so the first two plays, which set Michigan up for a medium-length conversion, were good ones. The third and fourth down calls were not. Michigan would be very close to ending the game if they convert on third down and would for all intents and purposes have ended with a fourth down conversion. The run into a nine man front on third and five was a terrible decision; the punt on fourth down was worse.

Was that you screaming about how Henne should be sent to the gulag after the fumble?

Uh... yeah.

Proved you wrong, huh?

I'm sad to say not really. Even on the final, game-winning drive he made two giant mental errors on throws to Breaston that would have almost certainly meant a loss if caught. Check the chart:

< td>2

Given the preponderance of screens and long handoffs (12 in total, 1 IN, one BA), Henne had a really bad day. On downfield throws he was acceptable or better on 14 of them and had 16 instances where he either missed, threw the ball away because no one was open, or messed up his read. Penn State is a good defense but when Michigan dropped back to pass the ball didn't even get in a place where it could possibly be caught more than 50% of the time, and several of the instances in which it did were little checkdowns.

The last drive was a microcosm of his day. The two throws to Breaston were the work of someone who does not understand the situation he finds himself in. If either of those is caught, we almost certainly lose. The checkdown to Manningham was a good decision that got us six critical yards and didn't run much time off the clock since Manningham just fell out of bounds. And then the final play was perfectly timed, read, and thrown.

Hell, the last drive was a microcosm of his season. Occasional brilliance, occasional meh, and a large number of questionable decisions/throws. If he had missed Avant in the corner of the endzone it would have been an exact replication. I know Carr said that anyone criticising Henne doesn't know what he's talking about, but hell, he punted on that fourth and four. He's not one to talk. Is Henne's inability to find open receivers downfield and excessive reliance on his checkdown routes a product of Carr's huge aversion to turnovers, as commenters have suggested? There's no way to know without being at practice, watching Carr tatoo "I WILL NOT THROW INTERCEPTIONS" onto his chi points or whatever. I think Michigan would very much like him to throw downfield to open receivers and has called a large number of plays that have emphasized this idea; I also think that when Henne is called to "exploit the middle of the field" he has more often than not made bad decisions. On the coaches? Maybe, but given their track record and how Henne's progress or lack thereof significantly departs from said track record I think the guy responsible is wearing #7.

Have anything nice to say, Mr. Grouchy?

I love Mike Hart sooooo much. He has a nickname after that driving, wonderful run: "DOES NOT COMPUTE." Mario Manningham is also super dreamy.

Special credit should also be offered to the offensive line, especially Steno, Henige, and Kraus. Lentz and Riley both suffered stretches where they got beat and thus killed Michigan drives but the left side of the line was very, very solid all day. Ecker also did a good job blocking on several of Hart's better runs.

Avant is Avant.

And, since I don't have a special teams section, you have to credit Breaston's returns. He put together a second strong game and if Henne had been more accurate on a couple passes would have put together a very nice combined yardage total. The return to midfield on the final drive was just as important as either of The New Math's touchdowns and he's looking OMG open on his routes now. It seems like that rumored hamstring injury was indeed legit and negative, and it seems like he's either almost totally or just totally healthy at this point. He's re-emerging into a weapon.

OMG REFEREES OMG!!!

How did you get in here?

All right: Michigan did benefit from two fortunate spots, but it also got screwed on one. Since Michigan got the first down when screwed and punted soon after on the fortunate ones the game was not unduly affected by either.

I have no idea whether the Avant catch was actually a catch or not. His toe clearly impacts the turf first in-bounds and is followed quite quickly by the heel out of bounds. I haven't seen anything conclusive either way from the rulebook. If Avant had been facing the other direction and his toe had clearly been in there's no controversy, so I'm inclined to think it's good.

The reason the Hart fumble was not reviewed was because Michigan rushed to the line after said play and snapped it before anyone had a chance to look at it. Credit Carr for saving the possession there; you can't blame the referees.

What does it mean for Iowa?

I feel much better about Michigan's ability to run against the Hawkeyes after watching the PSU game and Iowa's game against IU. Michigan did a decent to good job against an intimidating front four and a very good set of linebackers while Iowa struggled to pressure IU's Blake Powers all day. Michigan's weakness on the right side of the line may not affect them much against the Hawkeyes--I wouldn't expect three dead drives because of it. Michigan's ability to get Ecker and Kraus out on linebackers is also heartening; we'll have to block Hodge and Greenway to get the draw game going and we should be able to do so.

As far as passing, I think we're stuck with this version of Henne for the rest of the year, but things should get better at Kinnick. Iowa has two starting DBs down with ankle sprains who are questionable for Saturday. Even if they return they probably won't be 100%. Henne should have an easier time of finding open receivers than he did against Penn State, especially if Manningham (who was hardly used until late) is a bigger part of the passing game and Breaston can finally get some balls thrown to him. Michigan must throw deep more to open up the long handoff/screen game that they'll have to use to move the sticks. I expect a more consistent performance against an Iowa defense that doesn't seem nearly as intimidating without Roth and Babineaux, but not a great one.

Hurray, that's the poll hurray. If you're interested, you can see all the individual ballots here.

The poll came down on the AP side of the great ND debate, leaving them at #9 instead of dropping them to #12 like the coaches did. SMQB loves him some Irish so much that they of the two home losses check in at #4(!). It doesn't appear anyone budged on the Texas/USC issue, which is somewhat surprising. I had figured Texas would get a few more firsts. We did get two voters dropping the Trojans all the way to #3 after the Bush Push: EDSBS leads the charge followed by actionBERG.

Carnage at the bottom means we have four new teams: #20 WVU, #22 TCU, #23 Virginia, and #24 Fresno State.

Now on to the extracurriculars. First up are the teams which spur the most and least disagreement between voters as measured by standard deviation. Note that the standard deviation charts halt at #25 when looking for the lowest, otherwise teams that everyone agreed were terrible (say, Eastern Michigan) would all be at the top.

Deviation continues to plummet; Texas Tech continues to hover at the top of it, though this is probably the Red Raiders' last week on top of this metric, since next week they play Texas and thus finally get to demonstrate their competence--or lack thereof. Most voters have them #9 despite a shaky resume.

Our top five teams are becoming very clear, as you can see.

Ballot math: First up are "Mr. Bold" and "Mr. Numb Existence." The former goes to the voter with the ballot most divergent from the poll at large. The number you see is the average difference between a person's opinion of a team and the poll's opinion.

Mr. Bold is Warren St. John for a second time... and the reason is very clear: Louisiana State plummets out of his ballot this week, replaced by Louisiana Tech(!). Bold indeed, but probably a typo. (How can you type "Tech" when you mean "State"? Insert Blair/Miller cheap shot at New York Times here.)

In light of something that appears to be an honest mistake we'll have dual winners this week and bestow Mr. Bold upon Michigan blogger Rob in Madtown as well. Rob's one of a few voters pulling the lever for the Terps (#19), but other than that his ballot's just slightly different in a lot of ways: extra love for LSU (#5), ND (#6), BC(#9), and Oregon(#12) but little for FSU(#14) or Texas Tech(#20). He's also got Northwestern in the poll, one spot ahead of the Badgers.

Mr. Numb Existence is Texas blogger PoliBlog. Of note is that the numbers here, just like the numbers in the deviation, are coming down as the polls turn to less speculation as each week passes.

Next we have the Coulter/Krugman Award and the Straight Bangin' Award, which are again different sides of the same coin. The CKA and SBA go to the blogs with the highest and lowest bias rating, respectively. Bias rating is calculated by subtracting the blogger's vote for his own team from the poll-wide average. A high number indicates you are shameless homer. A low number indicates that you suffer from an abusive relationship with your football team.

The CK Award goes the WV Law Dog, who's got the Mountaineers at #14. Given the state of the Big East WVU is going to have to blow out the rest of said conference to get anything more than Texas Tech treatment from me.

The Straight Bangin' Award goes to Wisconsin blogger Bruce Ciskie, who interestingly enough didn't rank the Badgers last week and only has them at #23 this week, five slots behind Minnesota! The Badgers just, like, beat Minnesota. Flukily, sure, but beat 'em just the same.

Swing is essentially the total change in each ballot from last week to this week (obviously voters who didn't submit a ballot last week are not included). A high number means you are easily distracted by shiny things. A low number means that you're damn sure you're right no matter what reality says.

Swing doesn't work. Apologies;
I find myself fairly busy during the season. When I can find time to fix it I will.