further adventures in Jed York being unsuited for his position
The point of the diaries! Leading off: a fantastic diary from MCalibur on the increased vulnerability of spread option quarterbacks, or, apparently, the lack thereof. "Do spread quarterbacks get injured more?" is a question I've abdicated on before, citing the lack of a reliable injury database that could provide a comprehensive answer without good old fashioned grunt work. MCalibur grunted his way to a money graf after splitting quarterbacks into four quartiles based on run/pass ratio, with group 3 your Pat White sorts and group 0* your John Navarre sorts:
On a percentage basis the only group that suffered an out of norm injury percentage were level 2 QBs which I think of as QBs that are used like running backs (Juice Williams) or QBs that are too slow to be running in the first place (Steven Threet). All other groups suffered injuries at about a 23% clip. Meaning about 1 out of every 4 QBs in a given category lost playing time due to injury in 2008.
Though I don't agree with totally dismissing the increased injury rate of "group 2" QBs, the numbers here are small enough that it seems like an outlier. The Pat Whites got injured at at the same rate as groups 1 and 2, and group one was by far the hardest hit in terms of man-games lost. There is definitely no clear correlation between lots of runs and injury.
Caveat: as noted, the sample size here is small. The numbers are suggestive but not definitive. It's not impossible a larger study would show a better correlation between runs and injury. It is, however, pretty unlikely. Outstanding work; I have bestowed a bonus 100 (meaningless!) points. Misopogon also picked up the bonus for the numbers post front-paged last night. At some point these will be useful, I swear.
*(Dollars to donuts this means MCalibur is a coder. He's zero-indexing his arrays.)
Meanwhile on the roster. Michigan applied for three medical redshirts last year and news reports had confirmed that two of them—Adam Patterson, now a redshirt junior, and Junior Hemingway, now a redshirt sophomore—had been approved. The third was Kenny Demens, who the roster now lists as a redshirt freshman. Obviously inference: Demens, too, got his redshirt.
The whole enchilada from Rich Rodriguez's appearance at Big Ten media days:
Transcript here if you don't want to bother with the video. I read it and decided against it; there is zero of value in there. There is also creepy dark cell-phone video from The Big Ten Network talking to Mark Ortmann and Stevie Brown:
Mesko doesn't talk, he just saves the planet. There is also more of Rodriguez talking.
Can we get in on that? Yankee Stadium is poised to host outstandingly competitive games between Notre Dame and Army—why do you hate America, Notre Dame?—starting in 2010. This has caused Army to sign up a half-dozen future Yankee Stadium games against other East Coast schools and Yankee Stadium to start thinking bigger and possibly more competitive:
The Daily News has learned that there have been discussions between the NCAA and high-ranking Yankee officials, including managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner, about the possibility of establishing a postseason bowl game at Yankee Stadium, beginning in 2011.
And… hey… can we get in on that? And in a meaningful way, not a goofy Motor City Bowl sort of way? I would love the opportunity to watch some other Big Ten team freeze its ass off in New York against some warm-weather team and caveman their way to astounding victories. Hell, if Michigan ended up in it I might even go depending on just how Christmas-impinging the thing is. Why don't we boot the Alamo Bowl to the curb—cold or not, there is no comparison between San Antonio and New York—and take on any comers in the frozen northlands?
(HT: Doctor Saturday.)
Erm? I've never had the Erin Andrews-level obsession that much of the rest of the college football blogosphere has with stat ninja Phil Steele, but I do respect his research-mad ways and how he eschews the sort of punditry that can best be summed up with the word "Cowherd."
So, um, Phil, what?
7. Rich Rodriguez, Michigan – The Wolverines could be an underdog in as many as 7 games this year and they really must have a winning season. I think Rodriguez will get them to a decent bowl and make major strides just like he did in his 2nd year at West Virginia. Amazingly there are a lot of Michigan alumni who think Rodriguez runs a pass-happy spread offense! In his last 6 years at West Virginia his teams averaged 270 ypg rushing the football (148 ypg pass) while Michigan in that same span had 229 ypg PASSING and just 163 ypg rush.
Not only does that "7" represent Phil Steele's placement of Rich Rodriguez on his top 13 "hot seat" list—ahead of Charlie Freakin' Weis!—but I would like to meet the Michigan fan not in a coma that believes Rich Rodriguez piloted a pass-happy spread offense featuring Pat White.
Never fear, though. Sensing a threat to their hard-earned possession of 2009's Dumbest Statement About Michigan Football, CFN strikes back:
2009 Preseason All-Big Ten Defense
DB - Stevie Brown, Sr., Michigan
DB - Kurt Coleman, Sr., Ohio State
DB - Donsay Hardeman, Sr., Illinois
DB - Torri Williams, Sr., Purdue
That's right. Stevie Brown, who isn't a defensive back anymore, and oh by the way was mindbogglingly awful last year, is first-team All Big Ten. You win, CFN, you win.
(CFN HT: MattC87 around these parts. What, you think I read it?)
More scheduling bits. I have no idea about the veracity of any of these rumors, but the following five schools have been kicked about the internet in the wake of Rodriguez's announcement that Michigan would likely find a BCS school to have a home-and-home with. In ascending order of plausibility:
5. Duke. In a word: no. Michigan could get a Duke-level opponent without a return game, and has in the recent past when they scheduled Vandy. Duke's existence in the list of four teams batted about (all listed save UConn) reduces the plausibility of the rest of them.
4. UConn. UConn isn't Duke but they aren't a ton better from a program perspective. (They're obviously better on the field.) It's hard to envision Michigan playing at 40,000 seat Rentschler field. And it's hard to envision UConn agreeing to another neutral site game after their sellout series with Notre Dame was met with resistance from the state legislature and brokered down to six games from the original ten with a provision that the Huskies play at least six true home games each year. Also, they'd have to move or cancel a game with Northeastern. Also also, the recruiting exposure would be nil.
3. Pitt. This was addressed yesterday: in 2010 Pitt already has Miami and Notre Dame scheduled, with ND on the road. Even though they've got an extra nonconference game because they're in the Big East, that would be a foolishly challenging setup for either Wannstedt battling for his job or the new guy looking to get off on the right foot.
2. Oregon State. Oregon State is a plausible opponent, but they'd have to accept a nonconference schedule of @ M, Louisville, and @ Boise State to go with their nine-game conference schedule. Has any college football team not named USC (or Troy, I guess) been that ballsy since the adoption of the 12th game?
1. Virginia. Virginia is a plausible opponent and was #3 on my list from yesterday.
An attempt to schedule Michigan "fell through." Not sure if that would have been for this year, and that's why we had to scramble to get Eastern Washington. Tedford did say that he doesn't want to play too many good teams and prefers A, B, C scheduling. He stressed he always wants a home-home series, and that they're "not interested" in playing somebody without a return game. In regards to a suggestion that we play Notre Dame, Sandy Barbour, who used to work for Notre Dame, added, "The Irish are afraid."
Downgrade Cal in your betting pools.
Blunt. I was taken aback by a Rittenberg headline that read "Rodriguez sees chemistry built, entitlement vanish," but did indeed Rodriguez drop "entitlement" more than once:
"Are you hungry to prove yourself and not have a sense of entitlement? We talked quite a bit about not having the sense of entitlement," Rodriguez said. "It's good to have pride, but when that pride becomes too much, you're going to get humbled pretty quick. I think, in a sense, that happened to us."
There have been gigabytes spilled about this very topic on Michigan message boards from one end of the internet to the other: had Michigan fallen into complacency as Carr aged and the spittle ceased to fleck? What is this program, who does it belong to, and what is "being Michigan"? At what point do people start to kick ass again? And by "people" we mean "us"? That's not a question.
Right: This is Barwis culture shock in a couple sentences from the head man, and speaks to the difficulty Rodriguez had adapting Carr's culture to his. This has to be better now; anyone who hasn't transferred should be in for the long haul.
Etc.: Three people emailed me this so it must be important: Kirk Herbstreit had someone burn down his house for a tax break. It was the fire department. It didn't work. AAU remains so far beyond sketchy it strains believability.
Editor's note: bumped from the diaries for general usefulness and excellent formatting.
EDIT: About an hour into putting this together, Germany Schultz posted a notice in the forums about the same basic thing. Good discussion, with similar info followed before I noticed it. I hope my diary will still be useful, i.e., you didn't already spend a Monday evening culling the new rosters.
So I sat down to put together the Women's Bracket for the Sweet 16 round of the ongoing M Uniform Tournament (which hopefully will continue tomorrow), and as usual with those things, began by opening up the Athletic Department's site.
On there, bright, fresh and new, were the 2009 football rosters, including the numbers assigned to incoming freshmen. NCAA 2010 players rejoice. As for the rest of us, what follows are the new men in maize and blue. As you imagine the Class of '09 winning Big Ten Titles, Heismans, and National Championships, may your imaginations now have proper numeric associations.
|16||Denard||Robinson||QB||Deerfield Beach, Fla. (Deerfield Beach)||David Cone moved to 17|
|5||Tate||Forcier||QB||San Diego, Calif. (Scripps Ranch)||Spring|
|2||Vincent||Smith||RB||Pahokee, Fla. (Pahokee)||Spring|
|28||Fitzgerald||Toussaint||RB||Youngstown, Ohio (Liberty)|
|84||Cameron||Gordon||WR||Detroit, Mich. (Inkster)||Listed as a receiver, has a receiver number. For the moment, Gordon's not a safety|
|6||Je'Ron||Stokes||WR||Philadelphia, Pa. (Northeast)||Update: changed from 4 to 6 (typo or fastest # change ever?)|
|14||Teric||Jones||SR||Detroit, Mich. (Cass Technical)|
|29||Jeremy||Gallon||SR||Apopka, Fla. (Apopka)|
|77||Taylor||Lewan||OL||Scottsdale, Ariz. (Chaparral)||Can hopefully fill Jake Long's jersey. His shoes are another matter.|
|75||Michael||Schofield||OL||Orland Park, Ill. (Carl Sandburg)|
|76||Quinton||Washington||OL||St. Stephen, S.C. (Timberland)|
|90||Anthony||LaLota||DE||Princeton, N.J. (The Hun School)|
|88||Craig||Roh||DE||Scottsdale, Ariz. (Chaparral)||Listed as an "OLB" -- ?|
|73||William||Campbell||DT||Detroit, Mich. (Cass Technical)||Spring|
|7||Brandin||Hawthorne||LB||Pahokee, Fla. (Pahokee)||Spring. Norman Griffith, the Pahokee player who was killed last year, wore 7.|
|26||Isaiah||Bell||LB||Youngstown, Ohio (Liberty)|
|27||Mike||Jones||LB||Orlando, Fla. (Edgewater)||
|5||Vladimir||Emilien||S||Lauderhill, Fla. (Plantation)||Spring|
|15||Thomas||Gordon||S||Detroit, Mich. (Cass Technical)||Listed as a safety, has same number as RB Mike Cox (sic). For the moment, Gordon's a safety.|
|2||J.T.||Turner||CB||Massillon, Ohio (Washington)|
|13||Adrian||Witty||CB||Deerfield Beach, Fla. (Deerfield Beach)|
|34||Brendan||Gibbons||PK||West Plam Beach, Fla. (Cardinal Newman)|
|14||Nadar||Furrha||QB||Ann Arbor, Mich. (Pioneer)||Same # as Teric Jones, in same class, also on offense.|
|32||O'Neil||Swanson||RB||West Bloomfield, Mich. (Detroit Country Day)|
|42||Al||Backey||RB||Ypsilanti, Mich. (Ypsilanti)|
|36||Jonny||Childers||FB||Muskegon, Mich. (Mona Shores)||Requisite Rich-Rod fullback walk-on|
|27||Jordan||Owens||SR||Alpharetta, Ga. (Alpharetta)||Slot receiver from Georgia with an open number? Huh?|
|85||Joe||Reynolds||WR||Rochester, Mich. (Rochester Adams)|
|54||Jareth||Glanda||OL||Rochester Hills, Mich. (Brother Rice)|
|59||Tom||Lindley||OL||Shirley, N.Y. (William Floyd)|
|66||Christian||Brandt||OL||West Bloomfield, Mich. (Saint Mary's Prep)|
|67||Adam||Barker||OL||Adrian, Mich. (Adrian)|
|69||Erik||Gunderson||OL||Milan, Mich. (Milan)|
|94||Curt||Graman||LS||Cincinnati, Ohio (Elder)||Because Turner Booth doesn't last forever|
|67||Nathan||Brink||DE||Holland, Mich. (Holland Christian)|
|39||Eddie||Murray||PK||Royal Oak, Mich. (Royal Oak)|
|46||Seth||Broekhuizen||PK||Holland, Mich. (Holland)|
|93||Kris||Pauloski||PK||Indianapolis, Ind. (Pike)|
Also of Interest:
|19||Kelvin||Grady||SR||Grand Rapids, Mich. (East Grand Rapids)|
Things I'd like to say:
- I love that Hawthorne is gonna wear the number of his teammate (and fellow linebacker), Norman Griffith. He's taking on an awful load. I'm so rooting for this kid!
- Also, note what's happened with No. 7 through the years. Under Bo, it's Option QBs like Rick Leach and the first "Wolf" DE/LB hybrid, Mark Jacoby. Under Moeller it's hard-nosed runner Chris Floyd. Under Carr it's 5-star "stud" QBs Chad Henne and Drew Henson (or Spencer Brinton when you can't get one). And now: a tiny slot receiver (Robinson) and a linebacker from Pahokee, Florida, who wears the digit of his late friend. Could these be any more representative?
- Taylor Lewan: YMRMFSP...we get it.
- Denard Robinson in John Navarre's number: I like my irony served in 16's.
- Why is Craig Roh listed as an outside linebacker? Are they trying to give any fan who reads the DL depth chart a heart attack?
- If wearing No. 2 will make Turner into Woodson, does that mean Vlad Emilien and Thomas Gordon are gonna be Charles Stewart and DeWayne Patmon? NTTAWWT
Ooooh: dateline. Tim's not quite set up to post as Tim yet, but this is Tim from Chicago.
CHICAGO, IL - If "OMG who didn't vote for Tebow?" was the annoying meme at the SEC Media Days last week, the theme for the Big Ten's edition is "What the hell is wrong with your conference, and what are you going to do to fix it?" Every head coach was bombarded with some version of that question, and there were three general ways it was asked:
- Illinois and Wisconsin are scheduling games after the traditional end of the conference season. Do you see this as a positive for the perception of the conference as a whole?
- What other ways of toughening up the schedule (such as playing tough teams OOC, such as USC and Texas, or by extending the conference schedule to a full round robin) are you in favor of?
- Why do you suck so much more than the SEC?
Ron Zook thinks that not only is the ability of the Illini to stay on TV later in the year a positive thing, but also the bye weeks that they open up during the season will help the team stay healthier overall, and stronger down the stretch.
Rich Rodriguez, though he didn't play in a bowl last year with the Wolverines, thought that West Virginia's season extending to December helped his team when bowl season rolled around, because the execution and rhythm of the team aren't interrupted. Still, Rodriguez (along with a couple other coaches), thinks that it will only take big wins in one or two big non-conference/bowl games for the Big Ten to be back in the media's good graces. Michigan returning to power can only help that change. The only thing that really matters is winning, and that will come as long as Big Ten teams are as good as their opponents.
Tim Brewster thinks that playing the toughest competition can only help the team improve overall, and he looks forward to the day when the Big Ten conference adds a 12th team, and can play in a conference championship game.
Pat Fitzgerald, before his thoughts wandered to Rose Bowl dreams, talked about how he doesn't want to expand the conference schedule, because the Big Ten is pretty tough as it is. Like everyone else, though, he wants to change the perception of the league in a positive manner.
Jim Tressel said any time you challenge your team, not only do you find out where you stack up, but also that you grow as a team, and improve. As far as altering scheduling, he doesn't think that the difference between 40-some days off of football before the bowl season isn't significant to a team's performance, despite how the Buckeyes have looked in the past few BCS bowl games. The conference is concerned about its image, and even rival coaches cheer for each others' teams in the non-conference schedule.
Bill Lynch, who probably has the least vested interest in the topic, thinks it's a positive if teams can have a bye week, even if it means extending the season slightly. It allows for mental and physical rejuvenation.
Mark Dantonio thinks the difference between conferences is negligible, and the only way to determine who is the best is by a theoretical game between the all-conference teams of various conferences.
As for other (somewhat) interesting things paraphrased from the mouth of Rich Rodriguez:
The Big East and Big Ten are somewhat similar conferences, and though he spent a lot of time in the Big East, he thinks that the Big Ten has a bit more quality depth among its teams. Though the Big Ten might not have the most pristine reputation right now, once the teams are able to play and win in big games against important opponents, the perception of the league will improve.
The idea that a scheme is unique or unbeatable is a little overrated. Schemes are what they are. Michigan isn't going to win games just because of "the spread." It's plays and players that win games. Defenses may have caught up with the spread because it's not foreign to them anymore, but what you do from the spread is what's important. Defensively, Greg Robinson did bring in some slightly different schemes, though most defensive coordinators have a bunch of the same X-and-O stuff, and it's how you utilize them that's important. The bigger contribution by GERG has been the chemistry he's helped develop among the coaching staff and the players on the defensive side of the ball. Though the team lost some players from 2008, the new staff and players are communicating well, and that should help.
In other terms of improvement from year one to year two, there's the matter of experience. Not only were most of Michigan's players inexperienced, the experience that they did have was in a completely different system, so having a year of not only college football, but also the Rich Rodriguez system, will help the team a lot. Especially along the offensive line, the players will now know how to react when a new situation is thrown at them in live action. Once the players are familiar with game experience—and the coaches are familiar with the players—there are more available answers to problems.
Tomorrow, I'll have the chance to talk to the players, and hopefully there'll be some news to report from that.
I've dissed on Big Ten Media Days today, but here's something of major import:
He said U-M is close to signing an opening opponent for 2010. He said it's a BCS school for a home-and-home series.
Michigan would not be lining up a home-and-home with Duke or whoever, so this is an opponent ranging from decent to excellent. When Boise State popped up as a potential opponent, I scoured the schedules and came up with a list of potential opponents. Those opponents, once more:
NOT HAPPENING WITHOUT AN UNLIKELY RETURN GAME
- Oklahoma State
- Kansas State
- Mississippi State
- Washington State
- Maryland (would have to move Navy game)
- NC State
- Oregon State
- South Carolina (would have to move Troy game)
- TCU (they'd have to move their Baylor game)
TCU and all the "why bother" schools are out since it's a home-and-home. Georgia is not a candidate. Also, Maryland's game against Navy is in Baltimore and thus not moveable. They're out. What about the rest?
Alabama: has already filled out its 2010 schedule, and Penn State is on it.
LSU: Though they need a 12th game they would have to move Tulane and already have West Virginia lined up.
NC State: Open date, but has a real game (Cincinnati) scheduled on 9/4.
Pitt: No conflicts but already has Notre Dame and Miami on the nonconference, with ND on the road.
Oregon State: open date but already have UL and Boise lined up, with Boise on the road.
Arkansas: has only announced their now-annual neutral-site game against A&M.
Cal: Would have to move the Louisiana Tech game but has an open date and no scheduled road games. They do have Colorado lined up.
Oklahoma State: only Tulsa and Troy on the docket right now and nothing on 9/4.
Virginia: already lined up to die at USC, but do they really care about adding a game? No conflicts.
South Carolina: Would have to move a game against Troy and has North Carolina already lined up, but all of their noncon are currently at home.
My bets in order:
- Oklahoma State, which has a schedule that can accommodate Michigan with ease and is a nouveau riche school looking for a big scalp.
- Cal. Michigan loves scheduling Pac-10 schools and they can go on the road in 2010.
- Virginia. They'd have to be nuts, but maybe they are.
Also: Rodriguez confirmed that all the freshmen are ready to go, making Gallon and Turner's status officially official.
I've spent the morning a little freaked out because Big Ten Media days, despite having zero items of actual interest, certainly feels like something I should be covering the crap out of. And then you flip on the Big Ten Network and Mike Hall says "Michigan will get into a bowl because it's Michigan" at 6-6 when there are rules stating any eligible 7-5 team has to be picked ahead of a 6-6 team and, well… it's not so great.
But here it is if you want to marvel at… it. Enjoy the debt reduction and Michael J Fox Parkinson's commercials, and try not to pass out when Tressel takes the mic.
UPDATE: Whoever the analyst guy is just said Tate Forcier was an "unguided missile," which is… what? And now Greg Robinson is a "beautiful mind." Aaaaargh? I'm so confused.
UPDATE II: I'm done with this now except for a quote from Danny Hope: "having a winning season in 2009 would be one way for this year to be special."
PA S Brandon Ifill is Cullen Christian's less-discussed teammate, if only because near five-star Christian has been publicly claiming a large Michigan lead for months now and Ifill's been more reserved about his plans. He recently announced a top two of Michigan and Maryland, though, and plans on finding out more about Michigan this week. Tom VanHaaren caught up with Ifill a couple days ago.
TOM: Thanks for taking my call, how’s your recruitment been going so far?
BRANDON: Yes sir, no problem. It’s been going pretty good. I’ve visited 4 different schools right now, and taking one more up to Michigan on the 31st.
TOM: That was going to be my next question. Can you tell me a little about what you expect to see, and what you hope to hear as well?
BRANDON: I just hope to see a nice atmosphere, a great place to play football, a great program, and the great Michigan tradition.
TOM: What coaches have been recruiting you from Michigan?
BRANDON: Tony Gibson.
TOM: You’re teammates, and good friends with Cullen Christian. What has he told you about Michigan, and what to look for on your visit?
BRANDON: He’s told me everything; everything possible. He says everything is great; the academics, the program, the facilities, coaches, and players, everything.
TOM: Since you haven’t been out to Michigan yet, is it important for you to meet with all the coaches, and try to bond with them? Try to figure out how they coach.
BRANDON: Yea, I want to build a good relationship with them after this visit. I’ve talked to coach Gibson, but I haven’t met the whole staff yet. I want to get to know them, and see how they do things at Michigan.
TOM: Let’s say you go to Michigan, and it blows you away. Is there a chance you would commit on the spot, or are you going to be more strategic about it?
BRANDON: I’m going to come home and be strategic about it, that’s for sure. I really don’t want to rush through anything. I do want to take some official visits come fall, because we have plenty of time.
TOM: What official visits do you think you’ll take?
BRANDON: More than likely, maybe 3 or 4. I’ll probably go back up to Michigan for an official, and then Maryland, and maybe Rutgers.
TOM: I know you said that Michigan and Maryland are your top two right now. How did it come down to those two?
BRANDON: Michigan, I’ve known coach Gibson for awhile, even when he was at West Virginia. Maryland, I’ve been there the most, and I just really like everything about the school.
TOM: You said you want to take an official to Michigan. Do you think that would be with Cullen (Christian), or do you want to go on your own?
BRANDON: I’m not sure, it depends on if the coaches want us to do that. We tried to come up together before, but they wanted us to come up individually, so they could focus on us as one family rather than together.
TOM: That makes sense. Michigan is recruiting you more for the safety position. Is that the same with other schools? Maryland for example, are they also recruiting you for wide receiver?
BRANDON: Yea, Michigan is recruiting me for safety and corner. Maryland is also recruiting me for wide receiver.
TOM: Which do you prefer?
BRANDON: I really don’t prefer. I didn’t think it was going to be like this. I’ve been playing everything my whole career, so it’s nothing new to me.
TOM: After you take all your visits, and sit down with your family, do you think you and Cullen will make the decision and announcement together, or will it just be on your own?
BRANDON: We’ll talk about it, and see if we want to do it together. I’ll definitely talk to him before I make a decision, and he’ll do the same. When we first started all this, we banked on the fact that we would be a package deal, but now it’s kind of, if it happens it happens. We have seen the process, and what goes into it. We see different things, and want to enjoy that ourselves.