things go poorly
First let's celebrate by punching me in the face for submitting this Monday and forgetting to post it. Some notes:
Notes and such: Alabama is #1 and I don't see how anyone can vote for anyone else since they've basically done to Clemson and Georgia what Oklahoma's been doing to Cincinnati and TCU.
Penn State moves up past Missouri and some others on the strength of their win against Illinois and the Beavers' win over USC. South Florida? Well… you find someone else for the top ten that's not got some hideous thing.
Texas Tech has played Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, and UMass. Screw those guys. I ain't putting them in the top ten.
Is BYU really #8? Is Utah-BYU going to be one of the biggest games of the year? Is there really a section that reads "Northwestern-Vanderbilt-UConn-Maryland"? WHAT IS GOING ON?
Michigan's first commitment for the class of 2010, is no surprise: it's FL WR Ricardo Miller, the strapping kid from spectacularly named Dr. Phillips High School in Orlando. Miller is a junior, so information on him is a little sparse, but what exists follows.
GURU RATINGS & CHATTER
There aren't any yet, but a friend of the blog who works for Florida Football Magazine conveniently brought Miller up apropos of nothing in an IM conversation yesterday. The oracle spake thusly:
As you'll see in the magazine we're really high on Ricardo Miller. Like super high. Like best receiver in the class of 2010 high.
It's not clear whether he meant "in Florida" or "in the universe" but those two things aren't often that different. The magazine itself ranks Miller the #2 player in Florida's the class of 2010, saying this:
Big, strong, and fast, Miller could be playing for a major college right now but he's only a junior. He was the star of many off-season 7-on-7 tournaments.
Miller's an outside receiver at 6'2" or 6'3" and between 180 and 205 pounds.
Miller has an impressive suite of offers for a junior: Florida, Tennessee, South Florida, Central Florida, and Stanford. Also Michigan, obviously.
I couldn't find any from his sophomore year; I know he's been targeted heavily so far this season.
FAKE 40 TIME
Miller's 40 time is actually in the vaguely plausible range, as he's reportedly run a 4.47. This is still probably fake since he's a big guy and that was run when he was just as sophomore, but it only gets one FAKE, not three.
You know a kid is an impressive prospect if he's got freely available sophomore video, yes?
Mmmmm, "tight end" end around. Tight end around?
There's also a touchdown catch from his junior year here.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
The evidence is flimsier than normal this time, but as we saw with Will Campbell the kind of guys who get offered this early by a wide array of schools are often OMG shirtless sorts. Given the buzz emanating from Florida this seems a likely outcome for Miller; he should be a slam dunk for top 100 lists next year and has a chance at five stars.
Side note: Miller carries a 3.8 GPA and is considering early enrollment.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE (2010) CLASS
Miller's a hell of a start to the 2010 class; it's fortunate that Michigan lucked into a kid who needed zero convincing of where he wanted to go in a year that otherwise might have been a tough sell with freshman quarterbacks and Threet and whatnot. With Stonum, McNeal, and Miller, Michigan will have three elite outside WR recruits in consecutive years with some attractive options (Roundtree, Peace, whoever comes in with Miller in 2010) waiting in the wings should the headliners fail to live up to their billing.
If MI WR Jeremy Jackson—son of RB coach Fred Jackson—decides to stay home, Michigan could lock up a monster 2010 WR class faster than you can say something that doesn't take very long to say.
Update 9/30: Linked to articles on FL WR Jeremy Gallon, MD LB Jelani Jenkins (video), LA WR Rueben Randle, CA QB commit Tate Forcier, VA DE Will Hill, SC DE Chris Bonds, header on FL CB Mywan Jackson, FL LB Mike Marry (video), CA WR Shaquelle Evans, FL S Vladimir Emilien, Moved MI S Thomas Gordon to committed. Would move 2010 FL WR Ricardo Miller to committed if I had a 2010 board.
Added AZ OL Taylor Lewan.
Little scouting bits on MD DE Jason Ankrah and MD CB Travis Hawkins. SI/Takkle has put out a top 200; another article on Jenkins and Randle. A teammate of Pahokee commits Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne was shot and killed this weekend; Michigan is recruiting another Pahokee kid but I think he's on the back burner.
Editorial Opinion: Recruiting board lives here.
First, something horrible in the lives of Brandin Hawthorne, Vincent Smith, and Martavious Odoms:
PAHOKEE — High school football standout Norman Griffith was only the latest shooting victim in a region afflicted by steadily escalating gun violence, authorities said today.
Griffith, a senior and team captain, was shot in the head and killed about 1 a.m. Saturday as he was driving from a dance in Belle Glade at Southwest 12th Street and Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard. His teammates, many of whom have had trouble sleeping, gathered this afternoon to mourn him at the Pahokee Parks and Recreation facility, where many of the boys played youth football with Griffith.
Griffith was going to play college football somewhere; the photo gallery accompanying the article is worth checking out.
And now for something completely different:
Two commits in the past couple days, one from Cass Tech safety Thomas Gordon. Gordon is a three-star sort but one with a good alibi: he never played safety, the position he projects to in college, until his senior year. Once he did he picked up quick MSU and Michigan offers. I'll get a "hello" post up on him in the near future.
The other, well…
2010 FL WR Ricardo Miller made it no secret he was going to commit to Michigan as soon as they offered, and Michigan offered last night so he committed. I'll get a hello post up on him, too, but the one sentence synopsis: Miller's an outside receiver who's likely to be a top-five player in Florida next year; he already had a Florida offer. Florida Football Magazine ranks him the #2 player in Florida's class of 2010.
OMG tiny shirtless:
Despite appearances, Miller is not I repeat not a slot receiver.
So Miller is in the fold and is likely to be a big recruit, and if you wander over to FL S Marvin Robinson's myspace page (as always, a warning: myspace pages make you want to claw your eyes out) he's renamed himself "bout to verbal commit to the University of Michigan." Robinson came up for summer camp as a rising sophomore last year and was impressive enough to pick up an offer there; he's been favoring Michigan since. Florida Football Magazine ranks him the #6 player in the state at this early juncture.
And then I spent like way too much time trying to figure out just who in the hell this gentleman is because he's changed his name to "Yep! Yep! If My Bro Goin Big Blue I Am To!!" and myspace is the world's least pleasant software. It turns out he's John Lewis, an unranked 2008 linebacker recruit from the same high school who now appears to be at a JUCO—I can think of no other reason a kid from Lake Region, Florida, would end up in Fort Dodge, Iowa—and has pictures of himself in a Michigan hat splattered all over his site. He did visit M last year with Robinson, but he came back excited about a potential offer from Eastern Michigan.
I don't know what's up with that, as I find it hard to believe he's got an offer what with his ranking and Michigan's historic aversion to JUCOs. Maybe a walk-on?
Defensive ends dropping.
Michigan could probably use a third defensive end in the 2009 class, but with Anthony Lalota and Craig Roh in the fold we're likely to see the great majority of the players on the board slip away. Candidate #1 is SC DE Chris Bonds:
As for his recruiting, Bonds has visited Notre Dame officially and is scheduled to visit Tennessee October 25th. With this down time due to the injury, Bonds said he might move up his other visits. He plans to set dates with Southern Cal and Alabama. Michigan has been on list of visits but he said he's not sure he'll schedule that one. Bonds said right now Notre Dame and Southern Cal are tied at the top of his list.
He's on the board for now in case he does schedule that visit.
Meanwhile, VA DE Will Hill seems to be leaning to Tennessee if you take circumstantial evidence into account. He camped there, visited for the Florida game, and is considering a return trip for Alabama. Possibility 1: he really likes Tennessee. Possibility two: he really hates Tennessee and enjoys watching them get blasted. Michigan remains under consideration:
Hill said he plans to take official visits to Michigan and South Carolina before he announces his decision. Unofficial trips to evaluate Virginia and Maryland are also likely possibilities.
Much has been written of late about the two five-star recruits Michigan is pursuing other than MI DT Will Campbell. Sam Webb had an extensive article on MD LB Jelani Jenkins, who's visited. His father lays out some of the decision parameters:
"Basically we have a matrix that we did on each school," Maurice Jenkins explained. "Part of that matrix is the strength of academics and academic facilities. In Michigan's case, they have an awesome facility there, so you can see they take the academics very seriously.
"One other criterion was that we wanted a team with national exposure that potentially plays in the (BCS) bowl games. Diversity is very important, as is a city that we feel is safe. We want an environment that is diverse where they have respect for different people.
"The strength and conditioning program is real important to us, too, because that is the thing that keeps him on the football field. They have a real strong strength and conditioning coach up there (at Michigan)."
Some eeee Barwis follows, and the general impression given by the article is that Michigan is guaranteed to be in Jenkins top five and could be even better positioned from that. On WTKA Webb didn't go so far as he did with some of the other kids who have committed over the past few weeks, but he kind of sounded like he thought Michigan would be the choice if today was signing day. And how's that for a convoluted sentence? Attempt two: Michigan is in good, not great shape. If we're going by article sources alone, LSU and Penn State appear to be in decent shape as well.
LA WR Rueben Randle is the other five star listing Michigan pretty high, though most are expecting him to stay in-state:
“I want to see what it is like up there,” Randle told TigerBait.com, a site that covers LSU football. “That is pretty much the only one that I have set right now. I don't know the date yet, but I would like to make a trip up to Ann Arbor."
Randle plays for Bastrop, the home of DT commit DeQuinta Jones, and has an existing relationship with LB coach Jay Hopson.
The Times-Picayune had an extensive profile of Randle recently that mostly deals with how sweet he is as a wide receiver. Recruiting isn't touched on much until the end, but a quote from the man himself:
"I'm going to try to go where I can play (quickly) and where I'm most comfortable," Randle said. "There's really nothing more important to me than that, other than academics. Academics are important."
And then his coach:
I think he knows where he wants to go," Bradshaw said. "Or he's at least got a feel for it if he doesn't already know. He's too intelligent not to know. He's got it narrowed down."
"If he wants to go to a school that can win a national championship and where he can get a good edcuation, that should whittle the list down considerably. There's only a handful of schools that can do that, in my opinion."
That quote plus the "I only have an official to Michigan" quote above… promising? Maybe? I'm still betting on LSU.
Header on FL CB Mywan Jackson:
UNC Now Leading for Jackson
Jackson's got a Michigan visit scheduled for later and seems like the type of kid who is BLOWN AWAY by wherever his last visit was to, so he's not necessarily a goner.
Ohio State is the one doing the flippity floppin' on FL S Vladimir Emilien:
"Coach Fickell and I had a long talk on the phone and we agreed to get together again next week to talk a little further about this situation. I was glad to hear from them again, because I've always liked Ohio State, but the fact is that they went about two months without contacting me at all. I had removed them from my list, but now I've got to put them back up there again."
OSU was Emilien's heavy leader before they picked up six defensive backs and kinda-sorta-dropped him; I don't know if they're guarding against a decommit or just wanted to screw with Michigan's chances or what.
Emilien will be up for the Michigan State game on October 24th; he plans a Wisconsin visit two weeks earlier and may take a Stanford trip in November. He plans on committing November 23rd, his birthday. Assuming that Ohio State doesn't have room for him—and I really doubt they do—this looks good for M.
Also in that article is a mention of TX K commit Anthony Fera taking a trip to Penn State. No one thinks this is serious, FWIW.
Going to be ready.
This ESPN article on the battle over homeschooled kids playing for public schools starts off unpromisingly for M fans:
"I'll tell my teacher, 'I have a game today,'" Forcier said. "He'll say, 'That's fine; you don't have to come.' And I'll go to my football school and watch film all day."
In the middle it improves, though:
"He wasn't getting the special attention he needed," said Forcier, who added that Tate's SAT score now is nearly good enough for him to attend Stanford.
And it finishes with a flourish:
There is an added benefit for the player who might one day run coach Rich Rodriguez's spread offense. Because he can set his own schedule, he is able to attend extra workouts with Marv Marinovich, a trainer for the Sports Lab in San Juan Capistrano, Calif.
"Most kids don't do more than two or three workouts a week because they're so busy," Forcier said. "I'm doing five or six. On the train [to the workout], I'm doing homework. On the way back, homework. We broke it down pretty well."
Forcier said that when father and son first discussed the possibility of such a schedule, his father had one reaction about the benefits: "Now, we're going to build your ass up until you look like Tebow."
Forcier will probably be at least as ready as Chad Henne was as a freshman, and with his accuracy will press Threet from day one.
Etc.: This article on CA WR Shaquelle Evans speculating about an ND lead is probably misleading; the article referenced is just a standard "Recruit X is BLOWN AWAY" by visit that contains no directly informative quotes from Evans. Michigan remains on the visit list and remains a longshot. FL LB Mike Marry has M in his top seven.
Wooo! The two-pointer as viewed from the student section:
Meanwhile… celebratory posts abound:
- The HSR says [obligatory "rock band" guitar miming] "don't stop believin'." [/miming] Some unruly Wisconsin fans are called out. (FWIW, the ones in our section were all fine except one guy who stood up for almost everything.)
- The WLA has two separate reaction pieces.
- GSimmons has an excellent post from his perspective as a coach.
- Varsity Blue has some bullets.
- In the Diaries there's an… uh… running diary from wolverine32, a simple declaration that Chrisgocomment loves Michigan football, a Saturday relived, and Lordfoul's recap. Uh… and a seriously serious suggestion (we're from serious) that we hire Kirk Ferentz.
Sample the bounty of the internet and laugh contemptuously the next time someone pines for the old days when we'd get Mitch Albom's column and that's it.
BTW, the winner of last week's Awesome Diary = T Shirt Contest was, unsurprisingly, drexel, who got his Wisconsin scouting report bumped to the front page. May I suggest now is the time to get your Bow Down, Little Brother shirt? Or Zoltan For Space Emperor? Topical!
I loled. Cute kids watching the first half of the Wisconsin game, and then a punch line:
That man wins the dry sarcasm award of the week.
We're what? Whenever I post anything about lines four people correct me, but it's worth trying again:
That's the opening line from LVSC. Michigan is… favored? Elsewhere I've seen Michigan –2 and Michigan –2.5, which… wow. I know Illinois has been seivetastic on defense this year and squeaked by a Sun Belt team by three but I have also watched Michigan this year.
Eeee? I was all ready to fire up the Barwis bandwagon once again in the wake of this quote from Brandon Minor…
"There was one play and I ran down the field for an incompletion, and the linebacker that was chasing me, he was out of breath," Wolverines running back Brandon Minor said. "I came back a couple more plays and then scored. I still wasn't tired till my team beat me up on the sideline."
…but, uh… Minor's final line for the game: two carries for 35 yards and one catch for 11. He was in considerably more than he had been the past few games, but this does not exactly seem like a miraculous workload.
At least there's that. Apparently there was no replay of the critical roughing the passer penalty that turned fourth and fifteen into a first down and eventually a touchdown, but someone on the Wisconsin board has a set of images that appear to show it was a good call. FWIW.
Numberin'. Reader Alton provides a link to a mathematical breakdown of two point conversions by lead and time remaining. The data in the cells is what percentage chance you must exceed to make two points the best choice.
The slot for up one with twelve minutes left: 28%. The slot for nine minutes left: 21%. For about 10:30, then, it's reasonable to assume it was the right call if Michigan had a 25% chance to punch it in.
Another reader objects, saying that chart makes an awful lot of assumptions and can't be taken as gospel, and he's right, but I think the assumptions the chart makes—like the offenses in question are NFL-average ones versus NFL-average defenses—actually bias the chart in such a way that they overstate the necessary percentage for the call to be a good idea. This was not a close decision.
9/26/2008 – Michigan 27, Wisconsin 25 – 2-2, 1-0 Big Ten
I don't have to tell you it was ugly at first, but an illuminating example: at a couple points in the first half when the guy with the red hat was on the field various family members of mine stood up because we're natural standers frustrated by the usual decorum of our section.
A set of ancients crabbed at them to sit down despite, you know, the lack of anything to see other than a guy with a red hat standing on the field, and when this was finally annoying enough for someone to respond with the obvious riposte about the red hat a full-scale verbal confrontation ensued in which the crabs behind us simultaneously complained about how we were violating the stadium announcer's request to treat our fellow seatmates with respect and called my cousin "fatso."
I thought but did not say "I know you are wearing a hat that indicates you fought at the battle of Antietam but don't think I won't smash your skull into splinters."
At halftime, Michigan had 21 yards. I tried to hide from the sun and list all the things I would rather do than watch the second half.
At the beginning of the year we were all confronted by an unexpected cost imposed by the massive turnover in coaches and star players: Michigan seemed a little like laundry we wanted to win, and sucky laundry at that. They wore the wrong numbers and ran the wrong way and certainly played the wrong way and goddammit where was Mike Hart?
We know college football players not as people but as things that have transpired on the field. By the story arcs their careers trace out, tragedy or comedy. Without those—without even Lloyd Carr's story to fall back on—the first few games of the season were strangely numb. They lost to Utah? Okay. They lost by 18 to Notre Dame? Okay. You can go back and check the columns here: serenity reigned. That was born from detachment.
Johnny at RBUAS captured this sentiment perfectly:
Mike, Jake and Chad risked their dignity and only left with a little of it, but they came back in the first place by choice, because of something bigger. As for the guys that are still here, Trent and Jamison are mostly quiet and patient and had no place else to go. And no matter how jubilant and grateful Terrance might seem, he knew how much money could be made by coming back. I don’t hesitate to say that wins this year won’t be as satisfying as wins last year were. Not enough of these players have suffered yet.
Those people out there aren't Mike, Jake, and Chad but Threet and McGuffie (or Shaw or Minor or Brown or Grady) and I'm Not Sure Who The Left Tackle Is This Week.
But there is no better one-word description for the first half Saturday than "suffering," and Johnny Thompson is always going to be the guy who picked off Allan Evridge. Steven Threet could have four years of moments good and bad in him but I suspect to me he'll always be looking over his shoulder at Wisconsin safeties, just as shocked at what is transpiring as everyone else.
After it was over I did something I hadn't done since I was a kid making paper airplanes out of the free programs and throwing confetti* in the air whenever Michigan scored. I went down to the tunnel as the players exited the field and watched them go: Taylor boisterous, high fiving anyone he came across, Warren stoic, the Coner completely neutral until someone thumped his shoulder pads in congratulations. The only thing that betrayed Kevin Koger and his old man beard as an 18 year old, not an Antietam veteran, was the kid-on-Christmas-morning smile stretching from ear-to-ear. A blood-soaked band-aid hung from Thompson's chin, gamely sticking to a couple of hairs in his ragged beard. Barwis looked like he was stuck in a paint shaker.
These are no longer strangers. I know how they run, and they are mine. I wanted to say something to them, to wrap everything that had just transpired into a sentence and give it to them, to tell them about ashes and hope and the future. But nothing came.
After Brandon Minor's touchdown run I turned around to see what the crabs were thinking and perhaps to say something unkind. They had left at halftime.
This is what I should have said: "Those who stay will be champions."
- Thanks, karma! The entire crab sequence was awesome.
- Carson Butler got suspended and Mike Massey flailed around a bit before being replaced by Kevin "My Name Lacks An R" Koger, who proceeded to do nothing obviously wrong and then caught a seam route touchdown. If they're going to burn a redshirt, it might as well be for a 30-yard touchdown, and since he doesn't seem appreciably worse than either of the two nominal starters I say let it ride.
- This is what I am talking about with the "It's Great To Be A Michigan Wolverine" chant. It should be kept in reserve for Events.
- I'm sorry to have to be the one to tell you this, but if you booed the team you're an asshat. You wear asses for hats. Yes, you may have the purchased the right to boo your asshat-wearing heads off, but you are also taking your frustration out on a team that's obviously trying really hard but just kind of sucks from time to time. Booing the coaches is your excuse? Don't care, the players couldn't tell, and now they probably think we're all asshats because of you. You have a "right" to boo. You also have the right to give your grandmother the finger and call her a harlot.
- The block M in the student section was not epic fail but it did look a little squat from my vantage point.
- What is the point of replay if they aren't going to overturn that ridiculous Wisconsin "reception" in the fourth quarter? Even the Wisconsin fans in our section thought that was a terrible call.
- As I was walking home these guys behind me were having an extended conversation about how Rodriguez was dumb to go for two. One: they were wrong. Two: seriously? Seriously this is what you're focusing on instead of one of the best games in Michigan Stadium history? It must suck to be those guys.
- Those guys at the 1997 OSU game: "It should never have been that close."
- Those guys at the birth of their children: "he has a disappointingly shaped head, did you have to push so hard?"
- Those guys in the space machine vortex thingy from Contact: "you should have sent a poet. I'm just a guy who has no understanding of game theory. I'm not even enjoying this because I don't have someone belting out quatrains about these stupid galaxies."
*(Also made from the free programs. Those things are clutch when you're ten.)
Game column coming.
There's been a lot of debate in the aftermath of the Wisconsin game about whether or not Rodriguez made the right call after Johnny Thompson's interception return touchdown put Michigan up 20-19 with about ten minutes left.
The answer: absolutely, and it's not close. Let's break it down into three scenarios:
YOU GET TWO. Okay, you're up three, which means a field goal ties the game instead of winning it.
YOU GET ONE. Field goal means you lose. If you score another touchdown you have a likely-impregnable two score lead.
YOU GET ZERO. Field goal means you lose; if you score another touchdown Wisconsin can tie the game by scoring their own touchdown and going for two.
You can cancel a lot of stuff out because there are only two realistic scenarios in which the go-for-two situation is relevant: one UW field goal or a touchdown for each team and a Wisconsin two-point conversion. In all other cases outside of bizarroland, the decision doesn't matter.
At the time Rodriguez was trying to decide whether or not to go, Michigan had about 180 yards of total offense. Virtually all of that came on two inexplicable long touchdown drives; on Michigan's other ten drives they collected one first down and 31 total yards.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, had been gifted five first-half turnovers and largely squandered them. They had 248 yards of offense on 14 drives. They were averaging 18 yards every time they got the ball, and only had the points they did due to Michigan's largesse and a huge number of opportunities.
This was not exactly that 54-51 Northwestern game, where you were virtually guaranteed to see the opponent skate down the field and punch the ball in. This was a defensive slugfest between two teams heavily biased to the run, and it would take a highly unusual event like Dual Threet loping 60 yards with the Wisconsin secondary in tow to make the difference between one and zero even moderately relevant.
This is in fact what happened, but since Rich Rodriguez isn't the Kwisatz Haderach he didn't know what the future held in store and did the obvious thing: attempt to keep a field goal from beating you. Protesting that "you don't know what's going to happen" is weak sauce when you've got a pretty good idea that scenario A is far less likely than scenario B.
Anyone who disagrees is more than welcome to email me with invitations to high-stakes poker games.