things go poorly
So a few months ago Chris Stassen, maintainer of the invaluable Stassen.com, emailed me to note that his name was not, in fact, "Harold." I had been calling him Harold for years.
So I don't know if this is revenge or whatever, but yesterday this hit my inbox from Mr. Stassen. It's possibly the most frightening thing I've ever seen. The elderly, children, and pregnant women are advised to stop reading now.
I warned you…
Last year I stumbled across a research paper on the odds of a Vegas favorite winning a game (e.g., a 1-point favorite wins 53% of the time, a 7-point favorite wins 69% of the time). The research was based on Vegas lines and NFL games, so one can argue against applying it to the college game. I think college teams perform less consistently than pro teams (meaning that a big NCAA favorite is less guaranteed to win than an equivalently big NFL favorite)... but probably it gives a decent rough measure.
The other problem I've had is how to get "lines" for games which are purely only hypothetical (e.g., Texas Tech vs Kansas in the Big XII title game), or games which are weeks away and not big enough for Vegas to publish an early line (e.g., Michigan at Purdue). I've finessed this issue by using Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings (his best estimate of team strength) to compute spreads. Again, this sort of abuses the research paper's results, in that his spreads aren't the same as Vegas lines (though they tend to be pretty similar). Anyway, if we're only looking for ballpark figures, we don't have a lot of other options if we want to do this sort of computation.
There are lots of various ways to throw rocks at this analysis. I did a similar one for Ohio State fans at the start of the season, and computed that Ohio State was twice as likely to lose 3+ games, as they were to go undefeated. That was not too popular with the OSU fanbase, but I think I will be somewhat vindicated by the end of the season.
Anyway, even though there are weaknesses, I think the analysis' results are useful for looking at how a season "should" play out. More important than the spreads and exact per-game probabilities going in, are the ways in which the probabilities of individual games combine into the probability for this or that overall record.
Without further ado, here's the result for the remainder of Michigan's season:
By Sagarin-predictor pointspreads, Michigan is an underdog of more than a touchdown in every remaining game:
+8 at Purdue,
+9 against Northwestern,
+15 against Michigan State,
+16 at Minnesota,
+21 at Ohio State, and
+34 at Penn State
Using these numbers, the composite odds for Michigan's final six games of the regular season are:
6 wins = 0.0% (8-4)
5 wins = 0.0% (7-5)
4 wins = 0.4% (6-6)
3 wins = 3.9% (5-7)
2 wins = 18.7% (4-8)
1 wins = 41.8% (3-9)
0 wins = 35.2% (2-10)
By that calculation, Michigan is more than 75% likely to finish either 3-9 (one win in their remaining games) or 2-10 (no wins), with 3-9 being a bit more likely than 2-10.
They're a 22-to-1 longshot to exceed 4-8, and about a 250-to-1 longshot to be marginally bowl eligible at 6-6.
Individual results [excised for space and horror considerations; it's just the numbers in detail]
The most likely single outcomes are:
(1) Lose all remaining games (35%)
(2) Beat only Purdue (14%)
(3) Beat only Northwestern (12%)
(4) Beat only Michigan State (6%)
(5) Beat only Minnesota (6%)
(6) Beat Purdue and Northwestern (5%)
Anyone still alive after all that? If so: computer ranking are pretty crappy measures of team strength even at the end of the year, and they can be wildly inaccurate with only six games of data. The thing that jumps out at me is the Penn State spread, which is a full ten points higher than the Vegas line. FWIW, the Vegas line is always a more accurate predictor than computer rankings. This is considerably more grim than the facts on the ground. Probably.
But… yeah. I'm building a bomb shelter.
Some significant changes from the draft to the final:
- Commenters pointed out that LSU's schedule is extraordinarily flimsy at the moment, with the win over sudden doormat Auburn their best.
- Also bumped up was Oklahoma State, as the JCCW's plea have the Pokes above the Sooners makes sense.
- I replaced Northwestern with Vandy. WOO!
You know, when someone left a comment to this effect on the blog earlier today I thought to myself "not freakin' likely" but it turns out that the reason defenseman Steve Kampfer is going to miss a lot of time is because a football walk-on suplexed him into the sidewalk:
Lieutenant Robert Neumann said the victim was picked up and “body-slammed” to the ground by a man, who was accompanied by two other men. … Multiple sources with knowledge of the situation said the attacker is suspected to be LSA senior Mike Milano, a redshirt junior on the Michigan football team.
Milano was a wrestler for his first couple years on campus, if you're wondering about the Macho Man antics.
Michigan Hockey Net spoke to a source close to the situation and has a sobering update on Kampfer's condition:
He said Kampfer ended up with a cracked skull and T1 vertebra and is in a head and neck brace. …
The source said he talked with Kampfer’s parents today and it will be six weeks minimum before his next review (NOT until he returns to the ice) and he could end up taking a redshirt and sitting out the season.
The fight was, reportedly, over a girl. Of course. Good luck to Kampfer in rehab and Milano in court. Except not really the latter.
The tenets of national socialism. Newspaper are dumb and failing and articles like this are pretty much why:
As you might imagine, Michigan football fans aren't taking Saturday's loss to Toledo too well.
Some are wondering if it is more embarrassing than last season's loss to Appalachian State. Others have come to the realization they can never again ridicule arch-rival Michigan State about its back-to-back losses to Central Michigan.
One fan has established a website dedicated to getting coach Rich Rodriguez fired.
Ever since the Fire Ron Zook thing, goofballs have set up shop on "Fire X" domains. They know the media will give them free publicity because they are desperate little hit machines and "Fire X" stories get attention.
- nomorebrown.wordpress.com (notably silent since Saturday)
- and, the kicker: firepetecarroll.org
What do these sites have in common? 1) They're run by internet speculators trying to create money from outrage, 2) they attack the coaches that won the last four BCS national championship games, and 3) at some point newspapers gave them free publicity as evidence that lol internet.
It would be news if there was no Fire X site for a team as widely followed as Michigan, but, you know, whatever as long as we get a bunch of hits for this article. Please continue to poison your brand name with inane content; the last one out of the building should turn off the light.
As long as I'm angry. The NCAA hockey committee is considering a proposal to wildly revamp the tournament seeding process: only teams 1-4 would actually get seeds and the rest of them would be placed as close to home as possible so they can cut down on travel costs. This would force first-round matchups between schools in the same conference.
This, of course, comes a month after the NCAA announced St. Louis as a regional site in 2011, rejecting proposals from Toledo's new arena and Yost to do so. WCH slams the idea:
It's not surprising to see this come from the NCAA. They've never really cared about the integrity of their events, so long as they can maximize their profit. Of course, other ways to cut costs would be not adhering to the stupid "No home venues, unless it's a WCHA team, in which case it's totally cool" policy, and not scheduling a regional in freaking St. Louis. And if the number one concern is keeping teams from the same conference together in the NCAA tournament, it makes it look even more ridiculous that the WCHA gets to host the Midwest regional in Wisconsin 50% of the time.
Co-sign. NCAA regionals take place in half-empty buildings with no atmosphere because of a moratorium on home-ice sites put in place after Yost hosted earlier this decade and people complained. This hasn't stopped home-ice regionals all over the WCHA, but it has stripped the CCHA of one of its few reasonable options.
The obvious solution: let top seeds benefit from their excellent seasons by hosting regionals. You'll get sellout crowds most of the time at boutique prices, and #1 seeds will get whatever small advantage playing at home provides to reward them for their performance.
Or we could just throw out the idea of seeding entirely and have all-WCHA regionals.
Yikes. Penn State is favored by 24 on Saturday, which is the largest spread like ever against Michigan. It is literally the largest spread since Bo arrived.
Got beef. I'm not sure what Jim Leavitt's problem is with Rich Rodriguez, but it's real, yo:
"Who would have thought Toledo would go in and beat Michigan, with Rich Rodriguez and all his infamous wisdom, whatever it is there," Leavitt said. "Who really would have thought that? My point is that you've got to be ready at any time to play. It doesn't matter if Michigan is putting in a new offense or not, you would think the talent level would be a little bit different."
Actually, I might know: Rodriguez pirated OL coach Greg Frey and QB coach Rod Smith away from USF a year before he left West Virginia, and given his constant focus on recruiting Florida the two have undoubtedly crossed swords on the trail.
This, I believe, is the third time Leavitt has taken a shot at Rodriguez in the past year or so, and this one was totally unprompted.
LOL, no. When not Demanding Excellence, West Virginia boards have been aflame with delicious rumors to the effect that Rodriguez is planning a departure to Clemson. Here's our old friend EERHole declaring it's "more likely to happen than not." This is wack internet speculation clearly derived from West Virginia fans' paranoid revenge fantasies—the Scout board that is EERHole's home now has guys openly questioning the validity of their information—and will be enormously unlikely until such time as it's actually announced.
So that's not that interesting, but what is interesting to me is that Angelique picked up on the internets scuttlebutt and called Rodriguez's agent:
Mike Brown, Rodriguez's agent, dismissed such a scenario.
"Coach Rodriguez has the best job in college football," Brown said Monday afternoon. "He is a very focused 'Michigan Man.' I know 100 percent Clemson University has no intention of contacting coach Rodriguez."
Brown emphasized he is a Clemson graduate and said he has some insight into what is going on with that program, however he declined to be specific.
This all hinges on the idea that Rodriguez hasn't signed his contract yet and could escape without paying another buyout—preposterous, especially given the check M wrote to WVU—and that a Clemson athletic department that just got socked with a major buyout of its own (they just extended Bowden last year(!)) would have the scratch laying around to pick off a coach who would then be marked as a Petrino-level job hopper with all the scorn and recruiting issues that would imply.
Uh… count me in as a doubter.
Etc.: Maybe this Adidas thing was not a good idea? Curses.
Update 10/14: Linked to articles on FL S DeAngelo Hadley, CA WR Shaquelle Evans, MD LB Jelani Jenkins, MD DE Jason Ankrah and CB Travis Hawkins, SC OL Quinton Washington, FL RB Vincent Smith, another on MD CB Travis Hawkins,
Added GA S Donovan Tate.
I should talk about MN WR Bryce McNeal. Ah, well, it happened: decommit. Removed McNeal from committed.
Editorial Opinion: Recruiting board lives here.
I was going to talk about how serious the Bryce McNeal situation was and how leery I was of that particular situation, but McNeal beat me to the punch by decommitting. His top five is now M, Minnesota, Cal, Colorado, and Florida. McNeal on M:
GH: Has your relationship with Coach Rodriguez changed at all?
BM: No, my relationships with Coach Rodriguez and Coach Dews are the same as when they started to recruit me, I don’t have any different views of them, and I hope they don’t have any different views of me.
GH: So they didn’t recruit over you or anything like that?
BM: No, not at all.
GH: Is Michigan still going to be one of the schools you are considering?
BM: I am still interested in Michigan and am keeping them in the mix, I just am not committed to them anymore. They are still in my top 5 schools.
This one is somewhere between the Newsome situation (he was gone-gone) and the Campbell situation (where he is expected to recommit). McNeal could end up back in the fold.
…but if you made me bet, I'd bet against it. The way this played out is bad according to heuristics: McNeal committed, and said he was solid, then said he would take some visits, then backed off that after a conversation with the Michigan coaches. The contents of that conversation were part reassurance and part "if you take visits we have to start recruiting other wide receivers."
This latter part was evidently enough to get him off the idea of visiting. This is no longer the case. I have some scuttlebutt on this that's vague but not encouraging; I think Colorado and Minnesota are more likely than M at this point.
Number one, set a course for wailing and gnashing, warp nine. Engage.
The upshot if McNeal is gone-gone.
Well… it's not good, obviously. At the moment McNeal is Michigan's second highest rated recruit and the only outside wide receiver in the class aside from camp commit Dewayne Peace, who may end up a defensive back. Losing McNeal would be (is?) a significant blow.
That blow is lessened because Michigan already has two high-quality outside receivers committed to the 2010 class, though, and should be okay to bridge the gap between the current players and the 2010 kids. If Junior Hemingway gets a medical redshirt, he and Stonum will both be around in 2010 on the outside.
Could Michigan get in on another wide receiver? They probably would; they might look at MI WR Cameron Gordon in a different light now. They're still chasing LA WR Rueben Randle but that looks doubtful; Michigan might go after someone committed to another school.
MD DE Jason Ankrah and MD CB Travis Hawkins visited for the Illinois game and had nice things to say:
“I think that they are going to be a powerhouse in the next few years,” said Hawkins, a 5-foot-10, 181-pound, four-star cornerback prospect. "Most of the players said when you have a new coach coming in, you have to get used to him, and that's what they did. Overall, they said they liked the school, and even though they are young this year, they are going to get after it next year, and they are going to be dangerous."
But, yeah, I don't think we get either. Ankrah tried to commit to Penn State earlier and was rebuffed but PSU has picked up the interest again and Hawkins just visited Oregon. Upon his return, a quote:
When asked which visit he liked best, Michigan or Oregon, Hawkins said, "I liked the Michigan academics better. But other than that, Oregon was better."
Probably not someone who ends up at M.
We can take a break from the doom and gloom to note that SC OL Quinton Washington had very positive things to say about his visit:
"People in the stands were chanting Quinton's name," coach Art Craig said. "Q, wear the blue, wear the blue. And it wasn't rehearsed. I've got to give coach Rodriguez and his staff a hand. They did a job. They were genuine with what they wanted. To my understanding, he's their number one lineman they are going after in the nation. That's point blank what coach Rodriguez told me Friday night."
Craig said Washington took everything in and was very impressed. "He felt very at ease with them," he said. "He was very impressed with the facilities. They are building a second indoor facility. They are adding 100 skyboxes. They just opened a new academic learning center. He's a man of few words. When I asked him if they are in there with him, he said, coach, how can they not be?"
Washington is a guard recruit; he hasn't scheduled any official visits other than M yet but intends to. The instate schools were supposed to get a couple; that was before Tommy Bowden got axed.
FL CB Mywan Jackson has been all over the map of late, first almost committing to Michigan, then being very high on Auburn, then declaring UNC his leader and basically dropping Auburn. So, like… weird. He's got a teammate, FL S Angelo Hadley, who's also scouting around for schools and he's got Jackson's favorites on his final list:
Armwood safety Angelo Hadley, whom rivals.com rates as the state's 90th best senior prospect, has narrowed his list of potential colleges to four: Florida, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina.
"It's going to be one of those four," Hadley told the Times on Tuesday.
Florida hasn't offered yet; if they do I assume they're the choice. When a kid lists a school that hasn't offered amongst a small set of favorites who have, that's usually the preferred destination. If they don't, well, Michigan's got a shot.
Etc.: Fluff on FL RB commit Vincent Smith; GA QB/S/WR Donovan Tate has M as one of three officials lined up but is a big-time baseball prospect. I can't see him coming to a northern school, and the chances he goes to any school are slim since he's supposed to be a top-ten pick in the MLB draft.
10/11/2008 – Michigan 4, St. Lawrence 3 – 1-0
10/12/2008 – Michigan 5, St. Lawrence 3 – 2-0
Impressions from opening weekend:
SICK. Aaron Palushaj put Michigan up 4-3 on Saturday with the best goal I've seen at Yost since Mike Cammalleri beat two guys and scored from his knees against Michigan State. I'm going to try this MGoBlue embed one more time, but if it doesn't work here's a direct link to Saturday's highlights:
The sickness is at around 2:23.
Yes, Yost Built. Yes, I think having Mark Mitera's knee implode when you're already skating Eric Elmblad because Llewellyn and Burlon are out justifies the term Angry Michigan Defenseman Hating God. And if it didn't, well:
Junior defenseman Steve Kampfer suffered an injury Saturday night in the wee hours of the morning and will miss a significant amount of time. Berenson could not disclose the injury at this time but is extremely frustrated. No word on the cause of the injury.
That's four defensemen getting whacked in under a week, the most impressive run of malevolent fate to befall a Michigan team since that a 5'6" Jewish kid was running the point against Michigan State.
If they do rehab, he could wear a brace and play at some point in 2009. If he does surgery, it's also likely he will return but probably not until much later. Berenson obviously wants to do what's right by the kid.
Yes, he could get a medical redshirt if he wanted one but I think it's much more likely he signs with an NHL team after the season. The reason surgery isn't a given is because Mitera isn't going to take a medical redshirt.
As for the other guys: Llewellyn played Saturday and is evidently fine. Burlon has a sprained ankle and had his foot in a boot as of Friday; sounds like he's out for at least a few weeks.
New rules. A big thumbs up to the new faceoff rules:
- When you take a penalty the ensuing faceoff is always in your defensive zone.
- All faceoffs come from one of the nine faceoff circles.
- No changes on icing.
#3 had been very successful in the NHL and you probably know all about it; there were a couple instances Friday that the crew screwed up but that's a minor issue. They probably shouldn't have TV timeouts after an icing anymore, though.
As for the other two, they eliminate a number of boring neutral ice faceoffs; rule #2 does away with those extraordinarily annoying faceoffs a couple feet inside the offensive zone that always result in the puck ending up at center ice if "won."
And there are two referees now, which wasn't a disaster. It seems clear there is a lead referee and a guy who's sort of a backup plan, as both weekends have seen one ref make the vast bulk of the calls. Then again, when Mark Wilkins is one ref and Not Mark Wilkins is the other ref, Mark Wilkins is always going to make the majority of the calls.
No, seriously, at one point Saturday the teams played three-on-three.
New guys. Robbie Czarnik didn't score but he looked pretty darn slick out there. Losing Summers to the defense means he's probably going to have a rotating cast of pluggers on his line this year, but he looks like he could warrant significant power play time and maybe combine with Winnett and Turnbull or Miller or whoever to create a dangerous second line. I wonder if they'll futz with positions a little bit here? It seems like Caporusso is always playing with two guys who can't do much with the plays he sets up. I'd sort of like to see Caporusso, Czarnik, and Winnett give it a try. I dunno.
Wohlberg is tooling around on the fourth line but had a couple of impressive shifts where he got and kept control of the puck in some difficult situations. I missed most of Luke Glendening's reportedly impressive performance against Waterloo; he played Saturday and didn't do anything that left an impression on me.
As far as the defenders: Burlon didn't play and Pateryn got undressed on a goal Friday, then sat in favor of Elmblad Saturday. Pateryn wasn't supposed to come in this year and could be something of a work in progress; his draft status might be more representative of his size (an NHL-errific 6'5", 220) than his ability to play right now.
Emerging guys. Ben Winnett looked like a different player as a sophomore, far more capable when he got the puck and far more capable of putting himself in a spot to get it. I've mentioned this before, but he was a big scorer in junior and a fourth-round pick, so there's certainly some potential there for a breakout year if he gets the appropriate icetime.
The other two guys who jumped out—Rust and Hagelin—were no surprise given their position on the roster. I've been an avowed Hagelin fan since midway through last year and expect him to have a big year. He's almost Cogliano-fast, gives maximum effort on both ends of the ice, and has a pretty slick wrister.
I was never that high on Rust last year; this year he looks like a worthy #1 center.
Meanwhile, Eric Elmblad was solid both nights and appears to have gotten the nod over Pateryn on Saturday. Michigan is going to need him for an extended period of time now. He has to play as long as Burlon is out and may see significant time for the entire duration of Kampfer's injury, whatever it is.
Disappointing starts. Brandon Naurato deservedly ate bench after picking up two silly penalties in Friday's game, and this is probably irrelevant going forward but one SLU goal was a gift from Mitera. Scooter Vaughn got undressed on a couple of SLU goals Saturday.
But the biggest issue last weekend was not any individual player but the powerplay, a lame 1 for 19 on the weekend with the lone goal coming with eight seconds left in Saturday's game. I won't pretend to be some hockey wiz who can diagnose the issues but it occurred to me that there's not really a sniper on the team who can bomb one-timers, and this has been Michigan's PP strategy for the past couple years. Probably will take some time to adapt.
GOALIE WAR. Both candidates for the job gave up one soft goal, one okay goal, and one virtually unstoppable one. Sauer saw a lot more rubber; he has the tentative advantage, IMO.
Overall. That did not look like the #2 team in the country, and with three of the top six defensemen out for extended periods of time, including the captain, it's probably not going to look like that for much of the season. I went into the year expecting the team to win a lot of games 3-1, but now the "1" portion of that equation looks pretty shaky. Hopefully they can put themselves in a good position for when Kampfer and Mitera return, if Mitera can return at all.