Moe Wagner made history with his performance tonight. [Bryan Fuller]

We just had to believe.

Believe in the Moe Wagner First Three-Pointer Corollary. Believe in Luke Yaklich's defense. Believe that Zavier Simpson wouldn't have the worst game of his life for every last minute. Believe that these damn shots would eventually fall. Believe in the Ironclad Law of Duncan Robinson's Six. Believe in John Beilein.

Our beliefs were tested. Michigan shot out of the gate, gaining an early 12-4 edge, before a well-coached Loyola squad started outplaying them. The switching Ramblers defense kept the Wolverines from getting into their usual sets. On the other end, Loyola combined dizzying off-ball motion with strong post-ups from center Cameron Krutwig. While Wagner was a force, tallying 11 points and 11 boards at halftime, he received almost no help. Charles Matthews churned out eight points on 3-for-8 shooting. Backup center Jon Teske made his lone attempt. Nobody else on the team had a bucket.

While Michigan's poor outside shooting wasn't anything new this tournament, the same couldn't be said for the seven-point halftime deficit, nor the simultaneous disappearing acts of Robinson, Simpson, and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman. The Wolverines had been able to grind out wins without one or two of those players in top form; getting nothing out of all three would be tough to overcome.

The exclamation point. [Fuller]

Ever so slowly, Wagner and friends worked their way back in the second half. Ever so slowly. The margin remained at seven at the first media timeout and climbed to eight on a pair of Clayton Custer free throws out of the second. With the outside shots still clanging iron and Simpson looking entirely out of sorts, Beilein turned to his bench, subbing in Teske and Jordan Poole. With ten seconds of entering the game, Poole drove baseline for a layup. Shortly thereafter, Poole grabbed a defensive rebound in traffic, pushed the pace, and the ball worked around to Robinson for a three-pointer—quite notably, his second, reaching the magic six-point mark while cutting the deficit to three.

Poole, fully at home taking center stage in the Final Four, kept seeking out buckets. After another board, he went coast-to-coast for a tough layup. Wagner knotted the game a minute later by backing out of a double-team and launching a three-pointer right over it. Poole took his the next turn, giving Michigan its first lead of the second half at the line with 6:20 to play.

"The Drip Boys are full of swag, that's what they call themselves," said Matthews. "They bring instant energy, especially this kid here [Poole]. This is my roommate, so I've got my hands tied with him the whole trip long."

In closing time, Beilein went with his go-to guys. Simpson came back in for Simmons, rediscovered his defense, and kept the ball moving without those unsightly turnovers. Matthews hit a gorgeous reverse layup off a sharp pass from Wagner after taking a quick breather. Abdur-Rahkman got Michigan's lead up to double digits with a tough runner, only his second basket of the game, that all but ended the game with 2:13 to play. Sister Jean got a head start up the tunnel right around the time Matthews hammered home the final nail.

How many more, Jordan? [Fuller]

This was, above all, a career-defining performance by Wagner, who finished with 24 points on 17 shot equivalents, 15 rebounds (six offensive), an assist, and three steals. That stat line put him among Hall of Fame company: Larry Bird and Hakeem Olajuwon are the only other players to record 20 points and 15 rebounds in a national semifinal.

"Wow," said Wagner upon hearing that fact. "If you put it like that, it's probably cool. But to be honest, I kept looking possession by possession, we had trouble scoring the first half. We scored 22 points and that was kind of the only way we found our way to the basket, grab offensive rebounds and get second-shot opportunities. And I honestly just tried to do my job. The shots were falling the second half. It's a lot more fun when the ball goes through the net."

Wagner also played one of his best defensive games; while Krutwig went 7-for-11 from the field, he also coughed up six turnovers, and Wagner committed only one foul—of paramount importance in a game the Wolverines needed all 36 of his brilliant minutes.

Michigan's now-usual stifling defense handled the rest until the offense finally clicked late. Just don't tell the Wolverines they just knocked off Cinderella.

"We never looked at the team as a Cinderella team," said Matthews. "It's like 300-something Division I teams, and they're one of the last four standing. That's no Cinderella story. We respected them and we knew we had to come out and execute against them."

It took a lot of patience and faith in the system, but it ultimately paid off in Michigan's second trip to the NCAA championship game in six years. The winner of Villanova-Kansas awaits on Monday night.

"Everybody is really happy," said Beilein. "And we're ready to move on to the next game, whoever it is."

[Hit THE JUMP for more photos and the box score.]

Moe Wagner just bumped Nick Ward's ankles from the top Moe Wagner things. NOT BAD.

and you can't have one without the other…

A blue day. A shoe day. Ere the sun rises! [Patrick Barron]

Something's been missing to take the edge off before Michigan games since the free programs ceased being economically viable: scientific gameday predictions that are not at all preordained by the strictures of a column in which one writer takes a positive tack and the other a negative one. Something like… Punt-Counterpunt, except for basketball.

BLOCK

By Bryan MacKenzie

Everyone loves an underdog. It's a big part of what makes March so much fun. Invariably every year a double-digit seed bombs their way into the Sweet 16 - or beyond -  and we get to learn about their little quirks and storylines and idiosyncrasies. Remember Dunk City? Havoc? George Mason? They are fun stories with fun, new characters. And just as importantly, unless your team is one of the Goliaths slewn (slewed? slained? slewned?) by these Davids, their stories are harmless and free from the usual baggage that comes with established foes. Loyola-Chicago isn't a long-standing rival. They never beat Michigan for a key recruit. They aren't coached by an archetypal Evil Coach like K or Cal or Boeheim.

But take a look at Michigan with those same fresh eyes. Pretend for a moment that you just emerged from a century-long coma, and observe these Wolverines. They are led by a 5'nothing" point guard who has shut down some of the best point guards in the country through sheer force of aggrievement. He launches ludicrous sky hooks and teardrops over guys a foot and a half taller than him. He has the biggest mood of all the moods. 

Their captain and shooting guard is a 2-star who they stole from Harvard. Their best shooter and 6th man of the year is a guy who transferred from Division 3. Their best player is from 7,000 miles away and who apparently learned his (fluent) English by watching, like, the Bad Boy Pistons and Joe Pesci movies. They have Jordan Poole, who... my God, Jordan Poole.

They play precise, intricate basketball. They run the kind of offense that overmatched teams run to try to manipulate matchups. They play White Wide Receiver Adjective defense.

Take the names off the front of the jersey, and this is a "Cinderella team." It's just that if John Beilein were your Fairy Godmother, the pumpkin coach wouldn't have needed horses because it would have gotten 37 miles per gallon, and it wouldn't have turned back into a pumpkin for like three or four weeks. And the coachman would have shot 37% from three. 

There's no question that Loyola has captured lightning in a bottle. You don't get to the Final Four as an 11-seed without a little magic. But some combination of John Beilein's wizardry, the timely emergence of talent, a coalescence of karma and chemistry, and the right coins being tossed in the right wishing wells has led a nondescript bubble team to rattle off 13 straight wins (including seven Top-30 wins), and has them once again eyeing a ladder and a pair of scissors. 
When you boil it down, this is a basketball game. If Michigan hits, they win. If they don't hit, they might still win. That's good enough for me.

Michigan 74, Loyola-Chicago 63

----------------------------

CHARGE

By Smoothitron

Three hundred and fifty fanbases a year end the season knowing the wrong team accomplished what they desperately wanted for themselves. We try to avoid it. We do our best to apply reason to it. We acknowledge and honor fantastic achievements like conference championships and Final Four runs, but with each of these banner’s sweet memories comes the inescapable shadow of what-could-have-been. It’s the price we pay for the elation of another glorious B1G tournament, or Jordan Poole answered prayer; we treasure them on their own merits, but we ache for them to be the stepping stones to something more. We know these moments need no specific coda to give them meaning, but when that light at the end of the tunnel just keeps getting bigger, it becomes incredibly difficult to separate the joy from the regret.

Look no further than Michigan’s last Final Four team for the perfect example. Michigan has had a run of recent success under Coach Beilein that even this fickle fanbase has no choice but to look back upon fondly. Images of the brashest Canadian blowing kisses and a kid from Detroit clapping in the face of those that doubted his toughness dance in our heads. Mention 2013, however, and something altogether different burns brightest in our minds.

Team 97 earned a protected seed in the NCAA Tournament, claimed 3 consecutive wins over Kenpom top 10 teams on their way to Michigan’s first Final Four in decades, and its star player was a National Player of the Year that drilled a shot only very recently challenged for the title of Michigan Basketball’s “The Shot”. Even within the title game, we had an insane hot streak from a bench player put us on all cloud 9, if only for a few minutes. Despite all this, an inexplicable, inescapable call dominates their legacy.

Optimism pervades the Michigan community regarding this game, and not without reason. I’ve looked at the advanced stats, they look good. I’ve consumed a borderline-irresponsible number of takes regarding this matchup; people are mostly picking Michigan, and those calling a Loyola win are playing Major League Feelingsball. When common sense and the numbers agree in your favor, it’s a wonderful place to be. There is no good reason to believe Michigan will lose this game, but I’ve seen Jordan Morgan’s layup hang for eternity on the rim before falling harmlessly away. I’ve seen a Kentucky team with no shooters hit almost 70% of their threes, including the game-winner in our best defender’s grill. I’ve seen a Derrick Walton jumper that was absolutely destined to take us to the Elite Eight carom away.
There are reasons behind every win and loss, but those reasons don’t have to be any good.

Loyola Chicago 68, Michigan 62

Spring the 4th: a little different than Spring the 1st. [photo: Eric Upchurch]

As fans of Kansas, Villanova, and Loyola-Chicago have informed me, Michigan is the only Final Four team that fields an FBS football program, let alone a hockey program, putting us in the unique position of reading tea leaves and entrails from spring practice at the same time that two real life championships are a pair of actual real life games away.

--------THIS IS YOUR FRIENDLY MGOBLOG REMINDER THAT YOU DO IN FACT NEED TO BREATHE IN ORDER TO SURVIVE AND SHOULD PROBABLY DO SO NOW--------

The general form of this annual exercise is the fans go in hoping to hear certain things, and then pressers, videos and the odd practice insiders confirm, ignore, or dodge them with miniscule data. So I’m trying this in a new, more spring-reflective format.

New Harbaugh:

What we want to hear: Depends if you’re a Patton guy or an Eisenhower guy.

What we’ve heard: Harbaugh’s gone Eisenhower.

The players have noticed a change in their coach in large part because he sought input from them after the bowl game that capped an 8-5 season. He held a team meeting in January after the bowl game, and they shared their feelings.

“We had a sour taste in our mouth,” Higdon said. “I did, he did, everybody in this facility. He was open, (saying) ‘What do we need to do? What can I do?’ How often do you see that from a coach, asking his players? That’s stronger than anything.”

What it means: We’re picking through pabulum here. There was a sense coming from outside Schembechler Hall that Harbaugh was doing more face guy/program ambassador work, but he does all those things in the time that he’s literally not allowed to spend with his players. From the players’ responses though it does seem he’s been less aloof.

What it probably means is the coaching staff is taking last year’s failings seriously, and they’re trying to emphasize to the fans that they’re doing so.

Also Jim’s going to be a grandpa soon.

----------------------

[After THE JUMP: Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the defense sounds way more optimistic than the offense]

--------ALSO THIS IS ANOTHER FRIENDLY REMINDER THAT YOUR BLOOD DOES NEED OXYGEN AND YOU SHOULD PUT SOME OF THAT IN YOUR LUNGS RIGHT NOW--------

SPONSOR NOTE. HomeSure Lending is once again sponsoring our NCAA Tournament coverage this year, and once again that is going rather well. I'm not saying Michigan's second run to the FINAL FOUR is due to this great partnership of sports blog and home-financing expert; I'm not saying it isn't, either. I certainly don't want to test this theory. If you're looking at buying a house this spring/summer you should talk to him soon.

ICYMI. Tuesday's mailbag covered Moe Wagner's impact on opponent strategy, the John Beilein inbounding myth, and an interesting hypothetical about Beilein as an NBA coach. Wednesday's covered Loyola matchups, small ball, Jon Teske, and why Z keeps getting robbed (off the court). Brian posted the Loyola Chicago preview yesterday.

Up, then down, then very up. [Patrick Barron]

I was going to write another mailbag today but I'm past the point of rational thought. I should've seen this coming. This team, all season, has bucked expectation seemingly every time they settled into a pattern.

Heading into the season, this was going to be Moe Wagner's team. Or maybe Jaaron Simmons' if his MAC stardom translated, which we quickly learned did not. Perhaps Charles Matthews would fulfill his obvious potential and run the show, which appeared to be the case in November. Then he reverted to Turnover Matthews, the player we belatedly learned had been present for much of his mandated redshirt year, and we hoped he'd give up on being the centerpiece. He did, until the team needed a hard-driving centerpiece in the NCAA Tournament and he won West Region MVP.

Zavier Simpson started the first four games before coming off the bench in favor of Eli Brooks for the next 12. I wrote this on December 6th when exploring potential season outcomes:

For as good as Darius Morris was a sophomore, he simply wasn't ready for a starter's role as a freshman. Despite major differences in stature, Morris's statistical profile wasn't too different from Zavier Simpson's: very low usage, higher turnover rate than assist rate, awful outside shooting. (I know Simpson has shot okay from three this year but opponents are leaving him all alone out there and it's killing spacing.) Morris needed a full year before he was ready to run an efficient offense; if this year's PGs need a similar timetable, Michigan is probably missing the tournament.

I concluded that Brooks would do enough to help the Wolverines make the tourney as a bubble team. My personal Zavier Simpson mea culpa tour started eight days later.

The core. [Barron]

Duncan Robinson, a senior captain, had his starting job taken by a younger player for the second consecutive season, this time while mired in a shockingly uncharacteristic shooting funk. He continued to be a liability on defense until, suddenly, he no longer was that at all, through some combination of dogged work paying off and Luke Yaklich's tactical wizardry. While he stayed out of the starting lineup, he's one of the best five with commensurate playing time, and the team is evidently unbeatable when he scores six or more points.

The other returning senior, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, looked like the effective role player he'd pretty much always been for much of the year. When Michigan needed someone to grab control as Matthews struggled, however, he took the wheel.

Rolling with it. [Barron]

Talented freshmen Isaiah Livers and Jordan Poole had to deal with the considerable learning curve of John Beilein's system plus a newfound emphasis on defensive fundamentals that'd make it much harder for the average freshman to make a quick impact. Both marinated for a while before the blowout loss at North Carolina provided them with extended minutes against real competition. They settled into roles; those roles changed; they adapted, often by the day. Poole went from playing season-saving microwave against Houston to two statless minutes against Florida State.

Jon Teske earned the nickname "Big Sleep" as a freshman in large part due to how completely out-to-lunch he looked on the court. Some offseason chatter had him losing ground to a different big, Austin "Big Country" Davis, who'd redshirted behind Teske last year. Teske held off Davis and had a strong start to the season, using his size to overwhelm lesser opponents, before his production faded when conference play began in earnest. Sometime around Valentine's Day, "Big Nasty" awoke, and this big guy screams at Isaac Haas after dunking in his grill.

Hello, Big Nasty. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The last time Michigan made it here, the circumstances could hardly have been more different. While the 2012-13 team had lost Stu Douglass and Zack Novak from the starting lineup, every other contributor returned save Evan Smotrycz. The team had a clear leader in Trey Burke, a clear second option in Tim Hardaway Jr., an experienced big man in Jordan Morgan, and a group of prodigious freshmen that quickly settled into well-defined roles. The only significant change in how the team functioned throughout the season was Mitch McGary's postseason breakout, which wasn't too difficult to see coming.

This team isn't like that, not one bit. They play great defense no matter who is on the floor and squeeze enough offense out of their collection of misfit toys to grind out wins. Occasionally it all comes together and they blow a team to bits; more often, it's a matter of waiting to see how the game will dictate which player ultimately takes the lead. Not many teams make it this far in such fashion. For your college-to-pro comparison, you don't need to look far: hello, 2003-04 Detroit Pistons.

Will it end the same way? We'll see. Which player will take the lead? Who knows. Will it matter? I have no idea.

Neither does John Beilein, I'm guessing, but he has a much better plan of how to handle that. If you need me, I'll be curled up in a ball of anticipation.

Let's all sit quietly and think about the near future. SOUNDS GOOD GUYS NOBODY'S EXPLODING KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK

OH NO

A HYPE VIDEO

SEVERAL OF YOU HAVE NOW EXPLODED MY BAD SPONGEBOB MEME?

"you can attack their bigs" [Patrick Barron]

A much better anon coach quote article. Yahoo's was extremely silly, but ESPN's version is on point. On Michigan:

"They've got three really good on-ball defenders," one coach said. "Most teams don't have two, or even one. They have three. [Zavier] Simpson, [Muhammad-Ali] Abdur-Rahkman, [Charles] Matthews can really guard the ball. You don't have a matchup on the perimeter you can attack. They're handsy, they're physical in all the right ways. How handsy and chippy they are, in itself is very anti-Michigan-like. They're well-schooled. They're so good at putting their hands on or getting an armbar into you and then taking it off, then beating you to the spot." …

"If you're a traditional defensive team, you've got no chance of guarding them," one opposing coach said. "The teams that have slowed them down the most are teams that are nontraditional, that can switch a lot. You've got no chance of defending them if you don't switch ball screens."

Dollar says the latter quote there is from Matt Painter.

On Loyola:

"Everybody on their team is an above-average passer and can shoot it, so they have spacing," another head coach in the league said. "They don't take bad shots. They really work together as a team to get great shots every possession. They have an inside presence, but most of their offensive attack is transition or through spacing. Offensively, that's what makes them really good." …

"They ice ball screens and try to keep Krutwig in the paint defensively," he said. "So they've got some real tough decisions to make. You can't keep Krutwig in the paint against Wagner, so how they guard those actions, the pick-and-rolls in the middle of the floor. They can bring [Aundre] Jackson off the bench, but they need Krutwig on the floor. That's a real interesting thing for me."

Much more that's interesting at the link.

Yak's got this. Of all the reasons hiring Luke Yaklich might have benefited Michigan, "he'll have lots of experience against the MVC team Michigan sees in the Final Four" is the least likely. And yet:

Prior to joining the Wolverines, the defensive maestro went 7-1 against the Ramblers in his four seasons spent at Illinois State as an assistant coach and is familiar, at least fundamentally, with coach Porter Moser’s style of play.

“Coach Moser is an unbelievable coach ... you have to be locked in on both ends of the floor,” Yaklich said. “It’s gonna be a dog fight. His teams reflect his personality. They’re prepared, they get better, tough and they have a bunch of really great kids that have been through the Missouri Valley and non-conference wars.

“Loyola is obviously gonna have our full attention all week, and we’re thrilled with the opportunity to play in the Final Four against a really good and well-coached team.”

If Michigan wins on Saturday, before the final they need to hire an assistant from a team they can beat easily. How about Dane Fife?

One and done done? Syracuse recruit Darius Bazley has decided to blow off college hoops in favor of a year in the G league, because he's a serious dude.

“I’m self-motivated because I know this is what I want to do for the rest of my life. This is how I want to make a living. This is how I want to provide for my family, and provide for my love of basketball. I’m not playing any games with this. I’m attacking this straight forward. I’m not maneuvering around this, take any side steps. I’m taking this head on. This is the decision that I made, and I know it will work. I know what I’m capable of doing, and I’m going to do just that.”

Fair enough. Is this THE END for the current regime in college basketball? Maybe, maybe not. Bazley's salary in his sole G League year is apparently going to be a comically low 26k, and while he can sign with an agent and get some shoe money he'd probably be better off in the long run with the fame an NCAA tournament run could generate. And it's not like the shoe people can't just give his family money already.

On the other hand:

I think trying the G-League out instead of college makes sense for a whole host of reasons, but using it to avoid playing for Syracuse might be the most important thing for Darius Bazley's development as a prospect

— Nainan-ch Nails (@thom_not_tom) March 29, 2018

Bazley won't be wasting his time perfecting a defense that's illegal in the NBA and driving wildly into the lane hoping that this heavily contested shot miraculously falls. Why Bazley—or anyone cough cough Tyus Battle—with a potential NBA future would sign up for that remains a complete mystery. How a team stacked with NBA lottery picks could lose to that team is an even greater one.

PREPARE THE NELSON MEME. Oh and also this:

Jim Boeheim to @PeteThamel on the prospect of college vs. the G-League just a couple weeks back. Interesting in the wake of the Darius Bazley decision https://t.co/BKeGJYOQ7i pic.twitter.com/OVTHMqWpDW

— Brent Axe (@BrentAxeMedia) March 30, 2018

Or possibly the Sideshow Bob Steps On Rakes meme.

Would the end of one and done be bad for Michigan? Or good? I lean towards good. While the Dukes and Kentuckys of the world would start picking off guys outside the top 25 and might land on a guy that Michigan would otherwise get, the relative gap between those dudes and the dozen-or-so genetic lottery winners available annually is bigger than the 25-50 cohort and the next tier down.

Meanwhile the shoe money that funnels kids towards that restrictive list of bluebloods would now just be signing the top guys outright. The guys at the next level down would be choosing lower levels of bag if they eschew being developed by Beilein. I don't think it would upset the apple cart in college basketball that much; it would kill accidental superteams like "Anthony Davis and four other guys." Since Michigan was never going to get that guy, good.

PFF on Mo Hurst. They like him.

Why the @PFF crew thinks Maurice Hurst—not Bradley Chubb, Minkah Fitzpatrick or Roquan Smith—is the best defensive prospect in this year's draft class https://t.co/EIVWRLpjrS pic.twitter.com/JkawbNaVQr

— The MMQB (@theMMQB) March 30, 2018

They like him almost as much as I do.

Mid-majors: yes. 8-10 P5 teams: no. Rodger Sherman on the dwindling role of the underdog mid-major:

Twenty years ago, in 1998, the committee gave out at-large bids to Western Michigan (from the Mid-American Conference) and Illinois-Chicago and Detroit-Mercy (from the Midwestern Collegiate Conference, now called the Horizon League). When George Mason stunned the world by reaching the Final Four as a no. 11 seed in 2006, it did so thanks to an at-large bid, having failed to win the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. Same goes for 11th-seeded VCU in 2011, also an also-ran from the CAA. Between 1995 and 2005, UNC Charlotte made the tournament eight times despite winning the Conference USA tournament only twice. UNC Charlotte got six at-large bids in a span of 10 years!

If you’ll allow me to temporarily use a clumsy definition of “mid-major” for the purposes of this piece, let’s say the “mid-major” label applies any school that isn’t in one of the five football power conferences, their predecessors, or either the defunct or current versions of the Big East. In the 20 NCAA tournaments from 1995 to 2014, the selection committee extended at-large bids to an average of 8.9 schools fitting that definition, the high being 12 in 1995, 1998, and 2004. In half of those years at least 10 such teams landed at-large invitations. Since 2015, the committee has invited no more than seven such teams in a given year, bottoming out with last year’s four. You’d think this trend would be reversed, considering over that time frame the number of at-large bids has increased from 32 to 36 as the size of the tournament field has grown from 64 to 68. But no: With more available spots, the committee has rewarded fewer teams from mid-major leagues.

The NCAA should mandate no at large bids for a team that couldn't even win half its conference games. Only one good thing has ever happened because an 8-10 ACC team got in.

Lame. Michigan cancels the 2020-21 VT series, paying 400k to get out of it. In VT's place in 2020: Arkansas State. Something something it's smart because playoff, you say. And I say something something it's dumb because playoff, and we both have exactly the same amount of evidence.

Poole on JJJ. Jordan Poole and Jaren Jackson Jr played together at La Lumiere last year, and Poole thinks he knows that Jackson's out the door:

"I'm pretty sure I already know what his decision is," said Poole.

So, will the 19-year-old Jackson turn pro?

"For sure, I definitely think so, only because it’s an opportunity that not a lot of people are able to pass up. Being able to be in a situation like this, especially being in the lottery as a freshman and getting paid to play basketball, (which) is a dream, that’s definitely an opportunity that you have to take advantage of," Poole said.

You'd think this obvious since he's a top five pick who played fewer minutes in an NCAA tournament elimination than Ben Carter, but MSU people are putting it out there that Jackson is leaning towards returning. Izzo getting a lottery pick to return for more rebounding drills in football pads is almost as baffling as "anyone plays for Syracuse."

Etc.: How Villanova became VILLANOVA. KRACH tourney odds. Beilein, post-crash. Amateurism and Loyola. Title IX is no barrier to ending amateurism.