"He makes it really easy on you as a coach because he has tremendous football instincts," Michigan tight ends coach Jay Harbaugh said. "Things come really naturally to him. He doesn't have to see things too many times. He has a good sense for how things should look and feel, and he's a tough, physical guy."
What is this? A new feature tracking the secondary ticket market because I'm too cheap to buy season tickets. Also because that strategy has worked for me pretty well so far. I strongly encourage interaction from the readers on this because I'm still feeling my way on format and it's a very big market. Quite a few people already have emailed me with their tricks for ticket trading. A few have noted that I'm way more helpful to buyers than sellers, which probably can't be helped since that's what I am, but I'll try to throw some good selling opportunities out there when I see them.
LESSONS FROM YESTERDAY'S TRADING
I got me and a friend into BYU for free, and the morning of the game I got offered face value on the 50 yard line (Section 2, row 44). Both were because the "Dances with Dirt" run overlapped with the game. Mental note: when scouting ahead for tickets know about events that green thumb Ann Arbor types can't resist.
There was also a craigslist post from pretty close to me offering face or best offer right when I was leaving. They were actually trading about that on the sites, which surprised me. Since I already had tickets I didn't check them after 9 but I did walk down to the Main & Stadium entrance to find people selling the typical "wife didn't make it" tickets for $10 and trying to get $40/ticket for a pair at about 11:30.
THE NEXT GAME
The rest of Maryland tickets went to garbage the second a wild Bowling Green appeared (never schedule an Art Briles acolyte), but local Michigan fans were keeping the night matchup the premier event on the Terps' schedule. Ralph Garcia of TiqIQ before the storm:
The game at Maryland has seen a 25% decrease in average price over the past week. Current average is $133.21. Cheapest ticket available is $70. This is Maryland's most expensive game of the season.
SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL! If you have a pair already put them up now under market and pray they go—you'll find a new set on the way down. Things around the 50 are already under $100 out the door:
On StubHub there's a pair upstairs for $30/each (plus $15 for fees).
The weather news already halted the market, and it's been just hours since the new start time ruined the plans of mice and men expected to be at Erin Frost's Bat Mitzvah in Rockford at 10:30 a.m. and no you are not missing it that's why we are in town, not your football game; family comes first. Also: Mazel tov from MGoBlog, Erin.
If you've been waiting to buy tickets I suggest hitting the last-minute market. There are going to be empty seats and last-ditch attempts to unload them after Erin's oneg, and a lot of those tickets will never even make it near the stadium. I'd also be willing to gamble that there will be plenty held between thumbs and forefingers around the stadium.
NO NOT SCALPERS
Skip scalpers unless you're desperate. They do not call them gently shavers.
The BYU game awoke the Michigan monster in a lot of people, and tickets climbed 10% across the board, especially for the MSU game (because we have so much respect for the #2 Spartans, Mark, no other reason).
Again, my process is I spend a week of tracking prices on TiqIQ (which collates all the smaller markets), Stubhub, and Craigslist (Ann Arbor and Metro Detroit), then post a price per ticket for two or more seats together:
|@Maryland||$85||$30||$30||at game||Weather plus new start time 8 hours from old one.|
|Northwestern||$80||$81||$74||at dip.||Price is going up since it's homecoming + BYU bump|
|MSU||$194||$225||$168||at $150||State fans still driving up.|
|@Minnesota||$78||$40||-||at game||says you.|
|Rutgers||$43||not moving||lol||whenever||Hello permanent I-AA team on our schedule.|
|@Indiana||$63||$60||-||wait.||They still haven't lost.|
|@Penn State||$145||$108||$100||next loss||Going back up again. I'm bearish on PSU though.|
|Ohio State||$217||$181||$165||Now||Crawling up. If M beats Sparty these will bust $200|
Sigh, Rutgers. I'm not even reporting the price because I was watching the same face value ticket at the top of TiqIQ all friggin' week. Nobody's buying, and nobody wants to admit yet that they're not going to get their money back on that thing.
The BYU effect is happening on Northwestern too, since it's both homecoming (so people aren't letting their tickets go) and it's the next home game after a home game everyone wishes they'd been at. That had been trending downward since it's neither a premier game nor that one if you just want to take the whole family to one game (hi Rutgers).
Looking ahead to some road tilts in driving distance, Indiana is on a winning streak and faces Ohio State so let's wait for that bubble to burst. Penn State fans are driving the market for their game and are back to convincing themselves they have an offense. Unfortunately there isn't much on their schedule to trip them up. Army is next and unlike Air Force this triple-option outfit doesn't cut knees away. After that is Indiana. Then Ohio State, Maryland, Illinois, and at Northwestern. I'd wait till they play in Columbus, unless they lose at home to Indiana first.
Minnesota I got some advice from several people in the comments and on twitter. Apparently Gophers fans are not filling their stadium for anything, so treat it like a Northwestern game. If they beat a real opponent maybe get out ahead since you're banking a flight on this. But it still seems like this is a ticket you can get at the game, especially since it's too far away for a guy like to me to decide to go on Friday.
Commodities markets always move with news. Games are like crop reports: everyone recalibrates after. Emotions are a market inefficiency. So are things like Randy Edsall's players meeting without him while he flubs Forrest Gump quotes.
BEST DEAL RIGHT NOW (that I can find on the sponsor's site because let's support people who support us okay?)
I'm bullish on Michigan and Ohio State right now. If either gets a win over MSU then The Game will be a tough one to get into.
The mark on my elbow is still there. It’s smaller now; what once was about the size of a nickel is smaller than a dime, but it persists. I felt the stinging sometime in the fourth quarter and immediately turned to Ace to show him, not because I wanted attention for my accidental self-inflicted narrative device but because this thing on my elbow happened because of that thing that we were watching on the field. I was using the elbow as a pivot point, and so many incredible things had happened for which I needed to quickly cover my mouth to preserve the thin veneer of professionalism over the roiling excitement inside that the skin just rubbed off.
The numbers from last Saturday don’t provide as visceral an experience as what we saw on the field, but they show just as much dominance. Michigan jumped 15 spots in overall S&P+ from 25th to 10th, while the defense moved up to fourth. FEI has Michigan 26th, which is 10 spots higher than they were after week three. F/+ (which combines S&P+ and FEI) has Michigan 16th.
FEI uses preseason projections that includes things like last year’s performance (/shudders) and a five-year FEI rating with diminishing weight until week 7, when they’re dropped completely. You can see why Michigan’s digging out of a hole here. Every week, though, Michigan’s a little closer to shedding the baggage of the past, and that has felt true both literally and metaphorically.
The first three weeks of the season felt like the cold open of a new restaurant; there were kinks expected and, all things considered, the operation got off to a relatively smooth start. Week four was the grand opening; the curtain was pulled back, and the conversation shifted from how much potential the new joint has to how good it is right now. This new place is great. Just remember to keep your elbows off the table.
[After THE JUMP: Less about flesh wounds, more about numbers]
The thing I like most about daily fantasy games is having a thing to do with all this football knowledge that "it's my job" is only so much an excuse to accumulate. My job doesn't need me to know ahead of time that so-and-so has an 8-foot manbeast at running back and that the direction state university they're playing this week really should have gone Division III a decade ago. I don't really remember how all this information was acquired. It kinda assembled in my brain and sits there.
I can only foist so much of it on phone calls with friends (I mean, eventually you do have to ask about the kids) and the mgoslackchat. So I play Draft Kings, whom you may have noticed have been one of our best supporters for a very long time now, and who you also many have noticed are all over the place lately.
But remember these games are about exploiting market inefficiency. That blitz is your friend; they're sucking in tons of new players who don't know exactly what I'm talking about. And Ohio State fans.
Unfortunately the secret's out about the beast, and Buckeyes Bucking against Indiana is a smart play. So I've got a new dude. He is playing a team that doesn't stop anything, and his team is just starting to block everything, and his game just got moved to the early slot so his competition is unbalanced, and half the people in the pool are all gonna have the same guys. Don't listen to the weatherman who says the weather's gonna be clearer than you thought. I say it's gonna pour.
- $100,000 prize pool.
- First place wins $10,000
- FREE for new users or $3 to enter
- Top 7,850 scores win money guaranteed
- Starts on Saturday, October 3rd at 12:00 PM EST
- Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 9 spots.
- Roster Format: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex
Previously: Maryland Offense
Pictured: Maryland's best defender.
Maryland allowed 38 points and 424 yards to West Virginia... in the first half. Big 12's T3 equivalent won't let me embed videos from the game. That's probably for the best.
Personnel: Maryland is overhauling their front seven after siginificant losses to graduation [click to embiggen]:
Also, do not punt to Will Likely.
Base Set? 4-3. Against West Virginia's spread, Maryland often had their two DEs stand up. WVU countered with big runs right at those guys because leverage apparently matters quite a bit for run defense. Who knew?
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Upon Further Review still has a sponsor.
I am out of of pants related stuff to tell you. Matt generally wears them, because he's a professional. He also gives you his contact information in case you need anything. This offer does not include pants.
FORMATION NOTES: Michigan was super-heavy in this game. A plurality of plays were I-Form Big of some description, most commonly a 2FB lineup featuring Houma and Poggi.
Michigan frequently targeted the bubbles a 3-4 leaves by running fullbacks up both gaps. That is BYU in its standard 3-4, which they only left on passing downs. They left 8 or 9 in the box all day.
When Michigan moved from a dual fullback set to something with a blocker right behind the OL…
…the setup was appended with an "H". Here you can see every BYU defender within six yards of the LOS. M hit its first easy big play off this kind of defense with a 41-yarder to Jake Butt.
Michigan came out in a wacky formation right here:
I dubbed this "Emory" since it's kind of what's usually dubbed "Emory and Henry". This didn't work so hot since it didn't seem like anyone to the bunch knew what the dang snap count was.
On passing downs BYU would lift all but one DL and throw an amorphous pile of dudes at the LOS. They call this "radar".
Michigan's in the pro set they used on the Khalid Hill stealth mode play.
PERSONNEL NOTES: Houma and Poggi got all of the FB snaps. Smith got the bulk of the RB snaps until his injury; when he was absent it was mostly Johnson and Green, with Ty Isaac only getting two carries. That was odd, but more about it later.
Butt saw just about every snap. With the two fullbacks on the field for most of the day there wasn't a whole lot of room for other TEs; Bunting, Williams, and Hill all played bit roles.
WR was mostly Darboh and Chesson. Moe Ways got a healthy amount of playing time and proved an effective blocker; Perry only made appearances in the rare three-wide sets.
OL was per usual. Braden got knocked out with an injury we are assured is minor; David Dawson came in to replace him.
[After THE JUMP: De'Veon and the eleven dwarves]
How this works again:
- Readers predict the final score of a designated game by placing a guess in the comments, preferably in the format of [M score][hyphen][Opp score], for example "41-30" or "35-31 Michigan", or "28-24 Go Blue", or "38-0 Harbaugh!" etc.
- The three guys who read this part holler at people who post in a different format
- First person (by timestamp) to post a particular score has it.
- If you got it right, I contact you for an address by your MGoBlog account email, and you give me some time to get that to you.
- If nobody got it right or I don't hear from the winner(s) we push it to next week or let it go.
About Last Time:
It was good but nobody guessed it would be THAT good. :(
This Week's Game:
Nooner with the jobbie nooners of the conference.
And on the Line:
That'll come in handy for getting out of there after the storm.
One entry per user. First user to choose a set of scores wins, determined by the timestamp of your entry (for my ease I prefer if you don't post it as a reply to another person's score--if you do it won't help or hurt you). Deadline for entries is 24 hours before the start of the game. MGoEmployees and moderators exempt from winning. The algorithm finds the winners as it chooses. The algorithm is self-correcting. The algorithm consistently runs power. The algorithm is banned in Jersey. The algorithm has a weird thing going on with Utah these days.