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Jack Stewart Commits to Michigan
[Jack Stewart/via 247Sports]
As Sam hinted earlier today the Wolverines have added more help in the trenches, pulling 6’5”/280 2019 offensive lineman prospect Jack Stewart out of Don Brown country:
Committed to the University of Michigan. Thank you to all the coaches that extended offers. #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/OfP36YAr9C
— Jack Stewart (@jackstewartnc74) April 16, 2018
Stewart got his Michigan offer during the big recruiting weekend a few weeks ago. He had offers from BC, Texas A&M, Zona, and just recently picked up a TCU offer after visiting the two Texas schools last week. Notre Dame was also fishing around. He’s a three star to 247, an unranked 2-star to Rivals, and doesn’t exist on ESPN because Connecticut offensive lineman.
Hudl video exists:
More informative update cometh.
Hello: Te'Cory Couch
Lanky to the point of deception. [Andrew Ivins/247]
Despite a cancelled spring game, Michigan gained its first defensive back commit of the 2019 class over the weekend when they flipped four-star Hollywood (FL) Chaminade-Madonna Prep cornerback Te'Cory Couch from his prior pledge to Tennessee. The news broke yesterday and Couch confirmed it on his Twitter account last night. Miami (YTM) had been seen as Michigan's biggest competitor to pull Couch from his UT pledge, but one strong official visit to Ann Arbor was enough to sway him.
Couch is the eighth commit in Michigan's 2019 class, which now ranks fifth nationally and first in the Big Ten.
GURU RATINGS
Rivals | ESPN | 247 | 247 Comp |
4*, 5.8, #20 S |
3*, 75, #25 CB, #272 Ovr |
4*, 90, #32 ATH, #330 Ovr |
4*, #27 ATH, #292 Ovr |
While ESPN docks Couch a star, all three services have him in a relatively tight grouping. Rivals' #16 safety made their top 250, so he's probably lingering around 300th there, which would split between his ESPN and 247 rankings.
Despite the Rivals listing, Couch should come to Michigan as a cornerback/nickel. He measured in at a slight 5'9.5", 145 pounds at the Opening Miami regional, which puts him in the Jourdan Lewis/Lavert Hill cornerback category (as opposed to Channing Stribling/Jeremy Clark types, which entirely comprised the last secondary class). While short and slight, Couch has the frame to add a lot of weight and he plays taller than his listed height because of his long limbs. As you'll see, he fooled at least one scout into thinking he's a six-footer.
[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]
Let's Start Again: Nominal Power Forward
An irregular series about next year's basketball team. Previously: point guard, shooting guard, small forward.
3 and D [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
ROSTER
Isaiah Livers (So): Nominal starter had 13% usage and played like it, almost exclusively taking open shots someone else created for him. Plus OREB guy and defender.
Ignas Brazdeikis (Fr): Scoring machine is already 19 and has already featured in this series at the 2 and 3, for reasons.
Brandon Johns (Fr): More to prove than Brazdeikis but maybe a higher ceiling.
I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS
[pokes Livers with a stick] hey. do something.
Isaiah Livers's 12.9% usage was the smallest number a Michigan rotation player put up since 2011, when sophomore Matt Vogrich Just-A-Shooter'd himself to 12.8%. The only scholarship player in the Kenpom era to do more than barely pip Livers in invisibility was the senior version of Gavin Groninger, who played 12 minutes a game despite shooting 10% from two and 19% from three. (Michigan basketball: more fun than it used to be.) Livers's FT rate of just above 10 is also in the same "might be the lowest in the Kenpom era" range. 90% of his shots at the rim were assisted, etc.
Livers's tendency to hole up in the corner and produce zero shots for himself or anyone else was a bit disappointing for Michigan's first instate Mr. Basketball winner in a minute. In retrospect, it actually wasn't that surprising. Matt D of Endless Motor provided a scouting report and video last year, and even against high school competition Livers was a jump shooter:
His head is often down when he dribbles against pressure defense though, mitigating his ability to create for others because he doesn't see the entire floor. Doesn't have good enough first step acceleration to create separation off the dribble against guards/wings in a straight line. Doesn't display ability to change direction with the basketball when his defender beats him to the spot or helpside defense cuts off his initial straight line. Does not get all the way to the rim off the dribble based on lack of acceleration and change of direction ballhandling.
That was the case as a freshman and will probably be the case for his career, give or take the usual Beilein development. It's asking a lot to up your usage by 50%, especially when your shot creation is a work in progress.
[Campredon]
On the other hand, Livers was pretty good at not having the ball. His 7.4 OREB rate was Michigan's best mark from a non-center since GRIII, and he's the only other Beilein-era wing even in the frame. While I'm fairly leery about Synergy's individual defensive numbers—Zavier Simpson 73rd percentile with Eli Brooks and Jaaron Simmons 87 and 88th?!?!—Livers checking in as Michigan's second-best defender (outside of PG absurdities) behind Charles Matthews agrees with the ol' eye test. On/off splits can be noisy, but a couple things jump out as likely to be real in ~700 possessions against top 100 teams:
Livers provided big rebounding advantages over Duncan Robinson and caused both teams to operate inside the arc more. He was also terribly intimidating to opposition free throw shooters.
Normally, a 3-and-D wing who's a great rebounder would be a perfect fit at the four for John Beilein. Next year's team… maybe less so. Shot creation will be at a premium and it would take a huge leap for Livers to provide much. His target usage next year is probably 16, not 20. With Wagner gone that might be a problem.
Livers has a role next year. He'll improve, and in certain lineups his (probable) inability to create won't be as much of a problem. His familiarity with both Beilein's offense and Yaklich's defense will give him able time early in the year to solidify his spot. He's got a shot. But he's got a lot of competition all of a sudden, and it's 50/50 whether he's able to maintain his early lead. Upping the "3" part of 3-and-D is his best bet—34% probably isn't going to cut it. 40% would.
Which freshman is more likely to push him out of the way?
The twice-aforementioned Ignas Brazdeikis. Brazdeikis is older and spent his last couple years on one of those elite Canadian prep teams, where he put up 33 points per game against a collection of Success Academies; last week he drove to the basket on Bol Bol and actually scored. (Probably because he poked Bol in the eye, but rubbin's racin'.) For those and other reasons covered earlier in this series, Brazdeikis should be Michigan's sixth man immediately, and if he's able to survive on defense his ability to get to the rack will be vital.
But let's not forget Brandon Johns. Johns didn't take the hotshot prep route and saw his stock fall as a result. He spent large amounts of his time dunking on the best future accountants and deeply incompetent prosecutors that Ingham County could provide. The results were entertaining, at least.
Despite the bigger adjustment Johns faces, he is an even cleaner fit at the spot than Brazdeikis if he comes in hot. Johns is going to be the second-best athlete on the team as soon as he enrolls, and he might give Matthews a run for his money. This is a lot of above the rim for one game:
In contrast to Livers, Johns is extremely aggressive and spends most of his time getting to the basket. As per usual with high school prospects, denominators are few and far between… but apparently he shot 72% from 2 during his final high school season. This says something about his competition level, yes. It also suggests that he's allergic to the midrange. Probably? In 16 EYBL games Johns shot 52/44 with about three times more twos than threes; he shot 68% from the line on 40 attempts. AAU, sample size, grain of salt, etc.
This seems like a bit of a logjam. Can they spread this out some?
A bit. Brazdeikis has drawn mention at two other spots for a reason, and should draw most or all of the backup minutes behind Matthews since the 3 and 4 are very similar in Beilein's offense. It's not hard to get him up to 20-25 minutes even if Livers also gets that many.
In addition, Michigan hinted at some smallball lineups featuring Livers at the 5 late in the year. He looked pretty clueless about what to do on offense at the time, but if Michigan has designs on a position-less Villanova mode, he's going to be the guy they run that with. Johns may be more physically capable of holding it down at the 5 but will be in his pupation year and will look as baffled as Livers was this year. If Michigan gets weird it'll be with Livers.
OUTLOOK
This spot is the most unsettled on the team, in a good way. Michigan has three different four-stars who bring Beilein-style skills and excellent size to the 4, in three different flavors: 3-and-D (Livers), conscience-free bucket acquisition machine(Brazdeikis), and ferocious leaping dunk monster (Johns). Chances are one of those die rolls comes up real nice.
Take this prediction about who emerges with a grain of salt, but I think you'll see Livers start and maintain that role through the year. Early, the freshmen will make a bunch of mistakes on defense that will get them sternly talked to. Late, Livers might give back some playing time as Michigan turns to (potentially) higher-usage guys for a bulk of the minutes. It'll be like this years' Livers-Robinson platoon, except this version of Robinson is really really Not Just A Shooter. Minutes probably get split close to down the middle once you hand Iggy 10 from the 3: Livers gets 20, Iggy gets 20 at two spots, and Johns gets 10.
Te'Cory Couch Commits To Michigan
The lack of a spring game and some ugly weather couldn't put a damper on a big recruiting weekend for Michigan, as today they gained a commitment from four-star Hollywood (FL) Chaminade-Madonna Prep cornerback Te'Cory Couch, who entered the weekend as a soft Tennessee pledge.
Couch is ranked 292nd overall on the 247 Composite. He's the eight commitment for Michigan in the 2019 class and the first in the defensive backfield. If the class calculator is correct, his pledge vaults M's class from eighth to fifth in the country and first in the Big Ten.
Today is my personal last-minute Tax Day, so a full Hello post will hit the front page tomorrow.
Exit: Moe Wagner
An all-timer. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
Moe Wagner has made his decision. In an article he penned for The Players' Tribune, Wagner announced he'll enter the NBA Draft and sign with an agent, foregoing his senior season at Michigan. Wagner's lengthy, heartfelt farewell (titled "Thank You, Michigan") makes it clear this wasn't an easy choice, but he has some familiar footsteps to follow:
Alle träume klingen verrückt. Bis sie wahr werden.
This is what it says on the poster that I have on my wall. I’m looking at it now, in my apartment in Ann Arbor, as I’m telling you this story. It’s German, which you probably guessed, and it means: All dreams are crazy. Until they come true. (Good saying, right?) And then beside these words is a picture of Dirk Nowitzki — who is basically my idol.
Wagner is projected as a late first- or early second-round pick, an improvement over his stock last year, when his rebounding and defensive limitations had him projected closer to the bottom of the draft. Wagner improved both this year, especially rebounding, and while his defense is still a big question mark, his offensive skill set at his size will get him a contract and a roster spot.
This is the end of Wagner's remarkable collegiate journey. He came to Ann Arbor from Germany as a lanky wing, outgrew the position almost immediately, spent his freshman year struggling to earn playing time behind Ricky Doyle and Mark Donnal, and then became the key piece of John Beilein's five-out offense as a sophomore and junior. That doesn't mean we won't be seeing him around town, however.
Ann Arbor will always be the first American city that I ever really knew. In my opinion, it’s the perfect place to live — not too big, not too small. You get all four seasons, great sports, and some of the nicest and most genuine people I have met. I’ll miss Ann Arbor a ton and come back as much as I can.
Wagner's exit has significant ramifications for next year's team, of course, and we'll dig into those in greater detail this week. Jon Teske is now your surefire starting center next year, which will make Michigan a more defensive-focused team (with a greater defensive ceiling) but he'll be an offensive downgrade barring a breakout on that end—while he improved greatly at the pick-and-roll, he doesn't provide the same pick-and-pop, spead-the-defense threat. Austin Davis is most likely to settle into the backup role while talented freshman Colin Castleton—a Wagner-like player with plus rim protection—gets used to the system and adds some needed bulk.
Danke, Moe.
Friday Recruitin' Evidently Doesn't Need A Spring Game
Big-Time Visit Weekend Remains Big-Time Visit Weekend
Frankly, I wasn't expecting to write this post today once Michigan cancelled its spring game, but the recruiting process cares not for spring weather, and the coaches have ensured this is still a major visit weekend.
TMI's Sam Webb has a comprehensive, free rundown of this weekend's visitors. I'll hit on the highlights, including all of the official visitors—remember, this is the first year since the rule change that allows OVs in the spring.
The headliner is five-star OH DE Zach Harrison, who will spend Saturday on campus before heading home Sunday, per 247's Bill Kurelic. This will be an unofficial visit for Harrison, whose recruitment is shaping up to be a Midwest battle with Ohio State currently holding all 12 of his crystal ball picks. Michigan and Penn State are chasing the Buckeyes. The Wolverine's Brandon Brown is hearing Michigan is at least making things interesting:
"It was a two-horse race for a while with Ohio State and Penn State but Michigan has probably made it a three-horse race in recent weeks," a source close to the situation said. "I don't think anyone else has a realistic shot, though he'll still list Clemson and Notre Dame."
This weekend's visit will be important for making up ground on the Buckeyes, who are still the presumed favorite.
While this isn't setting up to be a carpal tunnel weekend, Sam has sounded a potential commitment watch—albeit without a gut feeling—for four-star FL CB Te'Cory Couch, a very soft Tennessee commit who's expected to wind up at either Michigan or Miami (YTM). He told 247's Andrew Ivins those two schools are the ones he's most focused on, and he's certainly hearing the right things from the Wolverine coaches:
"I just want to see what it's like there how the players live and stuff like that," he said when asked about the Wolverines. "I just want to see what they do on a day-to-day basis and the education. I'm talking a lot with [defensive coordinator Don Brown]. He loves me. He tells me that I'm the No. 1 corner on his board all the time."
A decision could come soon. While Sam didn't issue that gut feeling, he put in a Crystal Ball pick for Michigan, which is pretty close.
[Hit THE JUMP for more on weekend visitors.]