Last time Michigan faced Notre Dame in the NCAA Tournament [Patrick Barron]

After the Michigan preview, there will be a breakdown of the opposite game in the Frozen Four. I’ve asked Adam and MGoHockeyReference Anthony Ciatti to give their takes, as well. Anthony and I also recorded a podcast that previews the Frozen Four.

Probabilities. If you’re looking for some game-specific numbers, Ed Feng has released his  based upon his new rankings.

Michigan vs Notre Dame Corsi Numbers

That’s a bunch of 50/50 games. All four games were very close. The third game was a bit tilted towards the Irish because Michigan had a third-period lead and sat back and protected it. The rest of the games were all decided by one goal. Both teams are very good, well-coached, and super even. The series is 2-2 this year. Game 5 is now winner take all.

Notre Dame Preview

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against Notre Dame:

1. Stay. Out. Of. The. Box. Again. And always. This will be the key for Saturday’s game, should Michigan be so fortunate to advance. The Irish have scored on Lavigne six times this season; five of those were on the man advantage. As long as the tournament is called similarly to the way that it was in the Regional round, Michigan should be alright.

2. Don’t Get Caught. This really has not been a problem in quite a while for Michigan. The defense has actually been very, very good and extremely disciplined on rushes. Again, though, Michigan should have an edge in even-strength chances. Due to that, they cannot afford to even that out by giving up too many OMRs.

3.Keep On, Keepin’ On. Michigan has played very well since that first game against Wisconsin in the B1G Quaterfinals. They’ve been sound defensively, they’ve been effective with multiple scoring lines, and they’ve played to their strengths with individual players (i.e. letting Hughes create). Pearson and co. have created effective plans and the players have executed them very well. Michigan needs to just continue playing at the level that they’ve set over the last few weeks. There’s no reason to think that they shouldn’t.

[After THE JUMP: final thoughts on M vs. ND, then our take on OSU vs. UMD and general thoughts on the Frozen Four]

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

[Ed. A—Pick your poison if you’re wondering why there aren’t any MGoQuestions: is it the GI bug that has kept me up and…uh, occupied since 4 AM, or is it that my wife could go into labor at any time? I’ll be back at Schembechler Hall as soon as I can. Thanks to MGoFriend Isaiah Hole for the video.]

Do you have the deepest position?

“Well, you know, I don’t know. I don’t know. I mean, I don’t know, we haven’t looked at it. I think the linebackers got some good depth, some good talent. I think there’s some good young kids all over that defense that are working to make the depth that we need.

“But up front, you know we want to always have enough depth to be able to rotate, and really, that’s what the spring is for us. We want our first group to get better and come out every practice to get better, and guys behind them gotta earn the right so that you say, ‘Okay, when we get in games, this guy can go in right now. I think you’re getting that. I think you’re seeing that.”

Who’s starting to earn that right?

“Well, Kwity Paye is having a really, really good spring. Michael Dwumfour, I think, is having one of the best springs that I can remember. I mean, he’s really playing hard, and Aubrey’s [Solomon] playing hard, and Carlo, Carlo Kemp every day comes out an gets a little better, and he’s playing a couple positions. I think we’ve got a number of kids that are doing good to try and get that first group [to] feel like they’re there.”

What distinguishes Dwumfour?

“Dwumfour, it’s been he’s so quick off the football. He has a lot of Mo Hurst in him. There’s times when you see him come off the ball and you just go, ‘Whoa, that’s really good,’ and he’s a little bit thicker and a little bit bigger.

“The other thing, it’s probably Rashan [Gary] and Chase [Winovich] and Bryan Mone’s leadership that have really gotten him to step up. He’s always shown flashes, but now all of a sudden he’s getting more mature. Times when he’d play really good, really good, really good, and then all of a sudden try to take a play off or he wasn’t ready to take that next play. He’s not doing that now. He’s pushing himself way past where he usually would, and that’s a real good sign for us.”

[After THE JUMP, a 275-pound man is referred to as “little Phillip.” Football!]

3/31/2018 – Michigan 69, Loyola-Chicago 57 – 33-7, national championship game
4/2/2018 – Michigan 62, Villanova 79 – 33-8, season over

[Bryan Fuller]

The thing is in a football stadium so they raise the floor and permit the head coach a little stool he can sit on. From this perch he can yell stuff to his players more efficiently, I guess? It seems unnecessary. Maybe it's for television.

It's probably for television. For all the agency a coach has in selecting and preparing his team, by the time you reach the Final Four and they hand you a stool a great deal rides on a bunch of 30-40% coin flips. When seemingly all of those coin flips come up on the middle finger side, a coach's agony veritably radiates. He is a man alone on Stool Island, barely less helpless than someone who bought a ticket.

Michigan clanged back-to-back-to-back threes against Loyola with about ten minutes left, still in a five point hole. The first induced a Picard-worthy double facepalm from John Beilein.

The second actually caused Beilein to leap from the stool and stomp the floor before shuffling away in a huff.

The third was resignation and despair.

The man on the stool is moving deeper into the Kubler-Ross model every time down the court. If Jordan Poole hadn't swept through the lane for a layup on Michigan's next possession Beilein might have eaten his tie.

Eating your tie is acceptance. I accept that Michigan is never going to hit another three pointer, and I will live out my life in the Alaskan bush, wrangling caribou. No ties in Alaska. I am the man on the stool plotting his escape to Alaska, where I can suffer out of the public eye. At long last my innovation has betrayed me, and… huh. It appears we've ended the game on a 27-10 run. Plans canceled.

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John Beilein probably isn't in a prop plane headed for Nome as we speak but you could hardly blame him if he was. It was there for Michigan to give an incredible Villanova team all it could handle, but for the fifth time in six games they clanged far too many open looks from outside. Their brutal shooting in the final surpassed all prior outings this season and for all but one game in the past five:

Only once in the last 5 years did Michigan shoot worse behind the arc than the 13% they put up today.

— Jeff (BPredict) (@BPredict) April 3, 2018

I have not rewatched the Villanova game and probably won't. If I do I expect to see Beilein age 75 years in two hours as a series of wide open looks fail to go down on one end while a blindfolded Donte DiVincenzo is canning off-the-dribble 30-footers. By the end he has grown a beard that he has fashioned into a hat and moccasins. By the end he is the West Virginia mascot, having whittled a musket from the stool.

This was a 17-point game that never felt close after Michigan's disastrous close to the first half. It was simultaneously the game Michigan needed to play to beat the best team in the country. Michigan shot 66% from two, had four different and-one opportunities rim out, and lost a couple points on a missed goaltend. Michigan's defense closed out magnificently; Villanova didn't care. Half of their ten makes from behind the line were deep pull-ups off the dribble that are—should be, anyway—bad shots. Michigan didn't start launching bad ones until they were already 3/18 and deep in a hole.

Shoot your season average on the reasonable looks and hit one of the dumb ones and you've carved that blowout margin down to 2-5 points. And you're probably not taking the dumb ones because the game is within reach and you have reason to believe an open corner three is a better shot than a wild ninja kick from halfcourt.

The grim section of our Alonzo Mourning gif is Michigan's collapse from behind the line in the tournament. In six away-or-neutral games leading up to the NCAA tournament Michigan hit 48%, 48%, 16%, 48%, 36%, and 35% from three. In the tourney itself: 31%, 27%, 58%, 18%, 25%, 13%.

It defies explanation. Michigan wasn't any more tired during the tournament than they were when they hit their season average against Purdue and MSU despite both of those teams getting the double bye Michigan did not. They seemed to get the same quality of look. They just missed twelve straight in the national title game. And struggled against everyone else not named Texas A&M.

It probably wouldn't have been enough anyway. And nothing from this fun-as-hell basketball season can really disappoint. But that'll linger a bit, that U-turn.

[Fuller]

Basketball is a helpless thing sometimes.

Turns out rise-up threes are difficult to guard. [Bryan Fuller]

Someone finally solved Michigan's defense.

It took Villanova's historically great offense and Donte DiVincenzo's all-timer of a game. After a slow start, the Wildcats overwhelmed Michigan, going 17-for-30 inside the arc, 10-for-27 from beyond it, and grabbing 12 offensive rebounds. When they missed shots, they followed them. When they pulled up for three, they struck the fear of God into your heart. They were so good they didn't even need double-digit points from Jalen Brunson, the national player of the year, to take home their second national title in three years.

The team that wasn't supposed to be here looked, unfortunately, like they weren't supposed to be here. For the fifth time in six tournament games, Michigan's offense looked out of sorts, and they couldn't afford that against Nova. The Wolverines shot a woeful 3-for-23 from beyond the arc. Moe Wagner scored 11 quick points, then only five the rest of the way, looking increasingly frustrated by his misses and fouls. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman tried to carry the team in his final collegiate game, only for his 23 points to go for naught. No other Michigan player reached double digits until Zavier Simpson's layup with under four minutes to play.

Mood. [Fuller]

Thus capped an unbelievable run for a Michigan team unlike any we've seen since John Beilein's arrival. They came one game short of a most improbable national title with a couple transfers and freshmen added to the leftovers from last year's similarly improbable run to the Sweet Sixteen. Depending on NBA Draft decisions, this team may only lose Abdur-Rahkman and Duncan Robinson, and they bring in arguably the most talented recruiting class Beilein has landed. Even if Wagner (or, less likely, Charles Matthews) goes pro, they will be loaded for another deep postseason run.

Tonight went as many expected, and every missed opportunity at a national championship stings. We got a lot more out of this team than anyone imagined, though. The heads may hang tonight, but this group will stand tall forever, and this may well be the precursor to something even greater.

[Hit THE JUMP for the more photos box score.]

All photos from San Antonio by Bryan Fuller. All photos from the Crisler Center by Marc-Gregor Campredon.

SPONSOR NOTE. HomeSure Lending is sponsoring our tourney coverage. If you need a home loan, you should probably get it from a guy whose Ted Valentine impression is just as thunderously sarcastic as yours. Matt will get you a good loan, fast. And call you for a charge while doing it. Unless it is actually a block.

ICYMI. The preview. The podcast. Block/Charge.

The time for words has passed. Thankfully, MGoFish's Stephen Osentoski has provided a hype video.

Win The Game.

Fight. Laugh. Dance. Live. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

It would have been a good death, there at the water’s edge. If the Red Sea hadn’t parted, and the Egyptian army had mown down every Hebrew man, woman, and child on that salt-licked Levantine shore, maybe they would still tell the story, thousands of years of later, of the slaves who forced a Pharaoh to consent to their release. Other stories have made it as long of fewer slaughtered with the taste of freedom on their lips. Few gods had done more for their people than theirs had already done for them.

My people this week are celebrating what is objectively my second-favorite world holiday*. Passover is exactly what a religious festival would look like if a dadly nerd like me was asked to draw one up: a history lesson followed by family dinner under some thematic culinary restriction. And everything has meaning.

This annual dinner-lecture (we call it a Seder) has collected a bunch of narrative traditions in service to the primary function of educating the next generation of fans on the founding myth, i.e. Exodus. I’ll spare you the Charleton Heston movie recap, and the super-abridged version I told on Saturday to get the Hebrews out of Egypt before tip-off. After the Red Sea climax the story speeds up to get this rabble of aimless refugees with slave’s skills back to People status, and the way we do this traditionally is a folk song that Jewish kids learn before their vocabulary gets to 100 words.

It’s called “Dayenu” (dye-AY-noo) which means “It would have been sufficient” but like all laconic bon mots it has a stronger meaning that implies listener and speaker both know the story, so it’s also “We had matzah subs; it was crazy!” The intention of this one is really, you’ve done more than enough; how can I ever repay you? plus two drops of I can die now.

Each verse is a chronological event that takes us from slavery to freedom, for which God gets the credit, in a call-response.

If He had taken us to Mount Sinai and not given us the Torah?

DAYENU!

If He had given us the Torah but not shown us to Israel?

DAYENU!

So you’re building gratitude throughout the song. Parting the Red Sea will already make every gimmicky top five best miracles in 10,000 years of podcasts; if the ground is muddy, zero complaints. (The ground isn’t muddy).

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*[After y’all’s idea to spread gifts and good cheer during the darkest week of winter]

[After the Jump: What would have been sufficient.]