ohio state blogs will post literally anything
Oh right, we should report this. In least surprising decommitments not involving Penn State recruits whom Michigan leads for:
— Jason Higdon (@Jason_Higdon) January 28, 2016
Decommit = exit post but this one's been heading that way for several weeks. It does make that weird exchange with a Texas247 guy who wouldn't believe his Michigan commitment even weirder.
FWIW this one is more Antwaine Richardson than Rashad Weaver: the coaches wanted him in the class, as evidenced by Harbaugh flying in for an in-home visit a week ago. Elliott is expected to visit and commit to Texas this weekend, the fourth (and presumably last) school he has committed to during the process.
Take as further evidence that "commitment" can mean vastly different things to different people, and that it is foolish to presume another party has the same meaning as you. This is also the flipside to continuing to recruit a nominally filled position in the class; Elliott made comments to Sam Webb ($) in November that made it seem like he was certain to stick. With no 2015 NT and just Mone and Pallante left after Glasgow graduates, Michigan badly needed at least one and hopefully two nose tackles in this class. If they'd stopped with Elliott they'd be in a bad spot right now.
The Michigan coaches moved on last week, securing a commitment from former PSU commit Michael Dwumfour; they remain in pursuit of another NT type in Californian Boss Tagaloa.
Video: Rutgers player doesn't realize it's a one-and-one, throws live ball out of bounds for a turnover: pic.twitter.com/RZpFzUNr6n
— Alejandro Zúñiga (@ByAZuniga) January 28, 2016
You need to know four things about this game:
1. Michigan couldn't hit a shot. They dug an early hole after starting 0/5 from the field and finished the first half 6/18 from three. The outside shots started falling in the second half, but the Wolverines still finished only 20/49 from the field—not for lack of open looks, but much like the Minnesota game, they missed a lot of shots they'd normally make.
2. Mark Donnal sparked the run Michigan needed. With Michigan losing by three with 5:30 left in the first half, Donnal stuffed a shot by Jonathan Laurent, assisted Aubrey Dawkins for a three on the other end, took a charge, drew a foul and hit both free throws, then took another charge. After that sequence, Zak Irvin hit a three, and Michigan suddenly had an eight-point lead. Rutgers couldn't pull closer than five points for the duration.
3. With 1:30 left in a ten-point game, Rutgers committed a shot-clock violation. That is not ideal.
4. On the next Michigan possession, Irvin missed the front end of a one-and-one, Rutgers center Greg Lewis rebounded the miss... and passed the ball to the official standing out of bounds. It took a while, but we hit peak Rutgers.
Duncan Robinson (18 points, 4/9 3P) and Aubrey Dawkins (11 points, 3/4 3P, one spectacular missed dunk) were the two players who found any consistency with their shot. Zak Irvin went 2/8 from the field but hauled in 12 boards and dished out eight assists.
This was Minnesota 2.0: Michigan proved fortunate to play a bad team when they had an off night. Because that team was Rutgers, they won by double-digits anyway.
Michigan (15-5, 5-2 B1G) vs
Rutgers (6-14, 0-7)
Ann Arbor, Michigan
|WHEN||7 pm ET, Wednesday|
|LINE||Michigan -22 (KenPom)|
PBP: Joe Davis
Analyst: Jon Crispin
Right: Sadly, this was still less mean than including a picture of actual Rutgers basketball.
Caris LeVert still won't be in the lineup tonight, but John Beilein told the media yesterday that there's a timeline—one he won't reveal—for his return:
"Caris has had more testing," he said. "Things continue to go in the right direction, but he is not ready yet. We hope it is very soon, but he is moving in the right direction."
LeVert has not met with local reporters since sustaining the injury. Beilein has repeatedly declined to expand on the specifics, other than to say the program is being "overly cautious" and that it's a "lower left leg injury."
Of the aforementioned timeline, Beilein would only say, "For the first time we met and said, 'OK, let's start looking at this date.'"
Michigan plays Penn State at Madison Square Garden on Saturday; ideally, he could work his way back in that game and return to his normal role for next week's home games against Indiana and Michigan State, but that would be a best-case scenario at this point.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
|G||3||Corey Sanders||Fr.||6'2, 175||80||26||Not Really|
|High usage, high turnover rate, decent outside shot, poor finisher.|
|G||5||Mike Williams||So.||6'2, 190||68||23||Yes|
|Takes most threes on the team, hits... 28% of them.|
|G||2||Bishop Daniels||Sr.||6'3, 185||64||24||Kinda|
|44/30/70 shooting splits, most attempts from two. Turnover-prone.|
|F||1||DJ Foreman||So.||6'8, 230||65||19||Yes|
|Only 47% shooter, draws a ton of fouls but only makes 58% of FTs.|
|C||35||Greg Lewis||Sr.||6'9, 245||52||17||Very|
|Decent rebounder and shot-blocker shooting woeful 37% FG, 45% FT.|
|G||31||Omari Greer||Gr.||6'4, 180||46||18||No|
|A legit shooter! 44% from beyond the arc.|
|G||10||Justin Goode||Fr.||6'2, 185||37||8||Yes|
|Tiny usage, pretty much only shoots threes, has made 6/26 on the year.|
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
Michigan has picked up a commitment from the most Harbaugh guy we've seen in this year's recruiting class, PA ATH Khaleke Hudson. Hudson is not Jabrill Peppers, but if you squint you could be forgiven for mistaking them.
4*, #273 ovr
3*, #26 ATH
#85 S, #28 PA
4*, #318 ovr
#14 S, #11 PA
3*, #384 ovr
#23 S, #10 PA
You're probably familiar with Khaleke Hudson if you've kept up on our recruiting roundups of late. After Hudson put on a show in the Semper Fi game he became a favorite of the staff here. Our recruit-crush only grew once we watched his LB/S/KR/PR/WR/RB 15-minute senior highlight film on which his crushing blocks were a highlight even amongst a bunch of other impressive stuff. He's a Harbaugh guy, and wherever he plays he will hit people in the face hard.
Hudson's versatility should extend to the college level, where he could play RB, S, nickel, or even LB. Personally, I think he's headed for the nickel spot Jabrill Peppers currently mans, and not just becase someone at Michigan said the same thing:
"I know Michigan has said that I could play both sides. They actually think I could be very similar to Jabrill Peppers."
I figure Michigan says that to everyone other than OL these days.
Hudson's versatility is a major theme, with many outlets praising him both ways. ESPN calls him a "very good two-way player"; Scout says it's "easy to see why schools are split" on his eventual deployment.
As a safety he draws praise for his instincts, hitting, and short-area burst. ESPN:
…reads the play quickly and has an excellent burst to get to the spot. Very good at reading and reacting. …has the speed and quicks to cover man, especially TEs or RBs. He is very good at his zone cover responsibilities. He opens to the ball, reads into the QB and has a rapid break to the football in flight. … very quick out of his stance/pedal and flies all over the secondary and into the line of scrimmage with speed and positioning. Aggressive and physical, he is a solid tackler.
There is a minor concern about his ability to turn his hips in an otherwise excellent evaluation… and then you get the big fat raspberry of his ranking. As the #86 safety in the country he's barely ahead of a dude headed to Louisiana Lafayette. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I wouldn't read much into the ranking. Once you get down the board ESPN rankings frequently defy common sense (there are kids headed to UMass, WMU, Georgia Southern, and South Alabama ahead of Hudson) and are rarely updated.
Scout's evaluation echoes that of ESPN:
…good burst and covers 10 yards in a flash. As a running back, he gets through the hole quickly. As a safety, he closes quickly. In both instances, he is physical and loves to put his shoulder into the play. He has good speed and instincts, but needs to add some flexibility.
Hudson was an under-the-radar guy for a long time—he supposedly tried to commit to Penn State over the summer and was rebuffed—but caught the eye during a terrific senior season. He got invited to the Semper Fi game and was without question the top player in the game itself with seven tackles, 2 TFLs, a forced fumble, and 4 PBUs. He did that while rotating in and out of the lineup, as players do during all star games.
During the practices that are the actual meat of all-star game scouting Hudson performed almost as well. 247's evals from the game named five players on each side of the ball who stood out; on day two Hudson featured on both lists. On defense he looked "very fluid in coverage"; on offense his performance at running back was dubbed "special" by the coaches. He was #1 on D on day one and that report contains an excellent thumbnail of what to expect from him at Michigan:
With his compact physique, Hudson looks like the hybrid linebacker/strong safeties that are starting to become very popular as teams move to more sub-package schemes to combat spread attacks.
Scout dubbed him the best safety and the best running back at the game:
…as a running back he had a knack for finding the holes with fantastic vision, then using his explosive burst to get through it in a hurry. He had a comfort to him at running back and could feel his way in and out of spots and holes.
Hudson is a tough, physical safety who hits hard. … He's also a plus athlete who runs well and looks very comfortable playing in space.
In the aftermath Hudson got four-star boosts from Scout…
…a tough, physical safety who loves to hit. At 6-1, 200 pounds, Hudson has a strong, powerful build and is a prototype downhill safety who can fly off the hash in run support. He's also a plus athlete who runs well and looks very comfortable playing in space.
…and 247. The latter narrowly eliminates him from sleeper of the year contention. Rivals moved him up slightly (he went from the #14 kid in PA to #10) but kept him a three star. It's the goofy ESPN ranking that prevents him from being a composite four star.
In addition to Michigan, Hudson had offers from PSU, Pitt, and UCLA, his other finalists, along with Wisconsin, MSU, VT, UNC, and WVU.
McKeesport hasn't sent anyone to Michigan in the past decade. They had a top-100 DT in 2011 who went to Texas Tech of all places; they've also sent a half-dozen three-star types to mid-level Power 5 schools since Rivals started their database.
In case you're wondering about competition level, McKeesport is in the largest classification in PA and is right outside of Pittsburgh so it's quite good.
Hudson was naturally a two way star:
That jack-of-all-trades ability was evident in the 6-1, 200-pounder’s stats this season. Hudson finished his final high school campaign with 1,118 yards and 17 touchdowns rushing, and 219 yards and five touchdowns receiving. Meanwhile he was just as impactful on the defensive side of the ball, registering 60 tackles and three interceptions, including two returned for touchdowns.
FAKE 40 TIME
Scout has a "verified" 4.61, which isn't particularly fake.
Ace put together video from the Semper Fi game:
Keep in mind that is one game during which Hudson played about half the snaps. Also that is "scouting video," by which we mean we didn't excise the bad bits. Those amounted to one crossing route he got beat on.
And here's Hudson's I be like dang senior highlight reel:
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
Hudson is your Peppers heir apparent. He could play running back if things are truly dire at that spot but Michigan has a lot of options there; the need is much more pressing in the secondary. With his clear utility on special teams and Michigan's need to replace just about everyone in 2017 a redshirt is unlikely. It says here he has a year of apprenticeship and steps into the nickelback spot for a three-year starting tenure.
Can he be Peppers? He can almost certainly fulfill the screen-destroyer and run support roles. Where he might struggle is where Peppers struggled early this year: covering slot receivers who can cut in or out. That's what the mild criticism of Hudson's hips in the scouting reports might translate to on the field. He also might lack the athleticism to mirror a guy on a vertical route as effortlessly as Peppers does.
I'll take "not quite Peppers" from that spot.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
The ever-shifting beast:
Hudson's commitment adds a much-needed piece at safety. Michigan is still pursuing KS S Isaiah Simmons and a number of cornerbacks; Hudson's commitment doesn't close off anyone in particular since Michigan still needs DBs in quantity.
Like my friend Captain Foresight said, you should have taken at least a QB in 2012.
It's been four classes since I played the Captain Hindsight game, where we go over a list of Michigan recruits going back as far as I can find crutin information (Lemming and Parade All-Americans and Sandeep's old page), and then pulling from stats and starts and awards and draft position and memory to give each guy a "results" star rating.
But this time instead of just 1-5 stars, I quartered that to fit the same ranking system I came up with last week as a composite rating. That is…
Seth's Rating System:
|Rating||Meaning as recruit||Meaning as player|
|Consensus top 25||Star by end 1st year, generational talent|
|4.75||Top 50ish. 5-star to 3/4 sites||Star by year two, 1st rounder or denard|
|4.50||Top 75ish. 5-star to 2/4 sites||Star by year three or long-term very good|
|4.25||Top 150ish. 5-star to 1 site.||Really good, UFR heroes, senior stars|
|Top 250, nationally ranked.||Very good, all-B1G, draftable|
|3.75||4-star not always ranked||Good, all-B1G upperclassman|
|3.5||High 3-star, some 4th stars||Mostly good, sometimes frustrating|
|3.25||Better than average 3-star||Better than okay, but frustrating|
|Consensus 3-star||Usable as upperclassman starter.|
|2.75||Low 3-stars||Serviceable backup, iffy starter|
|2.5||2-/3-star tweener.||Backup, can play a few series w/o disaster|
|2.25||High 2-star (by pos rank)||Depth, can steal a few snaps w/ him|
|1.75||Below 2-star||Can't play on this level.|
And here's the results of my re-ranking survey. Please (and I'm serious about this) lodge all questions and complaints about rankings in the comments. I plan to take them all into account and adjust. Or if you want to download it and make your own rankings I'd be happy to take that. This is a feels thing so the more input the better our information. That said, unless you think I'm way off with the bulk of guys, please preserve my fragile ego, since I'm putting the sum total of my Michigan fan knowledge into those numbers and would like to continue thinking all that attention over the years hasn't been for naught.
Notes on these: Since this is just judging talent scouting, anyone I could possibly rank (including the transfers) I did so. Those not ranked were injured before we got a chance to see them on the field or compare them with players ahead of them on the depth chart.
Also to handicap things for scouts this is not about who ended up being the best PLAYER but accurately representing a guy's talent and ability to convert it to footballing. This is NOT to say every 5.0 was better than every 4.25, because some truly great players who went on to long NFL careers weren't able to help out until they were upperclassmen. I did it that way because I know the ranking systems themselves judge a player by how college-ready he is, necessarily underrating ceiling. There's no skill that would let you see a 220-pound tight end and predict he'll be the NFL Draft's first OT taken in five years. Long careers therefore can catch up to loftier ones, and the top overall groups are guys who had both.
I'll repeat that just so we can shame the guys who didn't read it in the comments: it's not about who's BEST but how accurately he was scouted.
[After the jump: we compare services, and find fun things like best class ever, most underrated guys, etc.]
Michigan landed a commitment this morning from Winter Garden (FL) West Orange WR Eddie McDoom, whose name, again, is EDDIE MCDOOM. This is important for many reasons, including that I get to post some MF Doom on the blog:
As you either enjoy that or hate it (this is MGoBlog, after all), let's continue. Eddie McDoom is the 25th commit in the 2016 class, joining Dylan Crawford, Brad Hawkins, and Nate Johnson among receivers. We expect ATH Ahmir Mitchell to play safety and Johnson's spot in the class is tenuous—he's technically a commit but will make a NSD decision between Michigan, Notre Dame, and Miami, and the Irish look to be in the best spot for him. APB Chris Evans is a potential slot but he should also get a chance to make an impact in the backfield.
As Steve Lorenz mentioned on the MGoPodcast a week ago, this was quite the recruiting coup by Jim Harbaugh. McDoom initially committed to Oregon in December, which allowed Michigan to land Crawford—Oregon has been their biggest competition but were full at receiver with McDoom. Michigan held their Citrus Bowl practices at McDoom's high school and never stopped pursuing him; when McDoom wanted to visit Ann Arbor, Oregon's policy required he decommit, and the Wolverines ended up getting both receivers they coveted.
|3*, #68 WR||3*, #75 WR||
4*, 82, #23 WR,
3*, 88, #67 WR,
3*, #65 WR,
When it comes to McDoom, ESPN is your favorite scouting service. Given McDoom's impressive offer sheet and film, ESPN appears to be more correct in this instance than the other three sites, which peg McDoom as a middling three-star.
McDoom is slot-sized. ESPN probably has the most accurate listing since McDoom participated in the ESPN-sponsored Under Armour game; they list him at 5'11", 178 pounds. Every other site lists him between 5'11" and 6'1" at 170 pounds.
ESPN has easily the most detailed scouting report on McDoom. They praise his game speed, ability to separate with quickness and technical prowess, and ball skills; here are their sections on his big play ability and the overall conclusion:
This guy is sneaky good in his ability to create separation and make plays when the ball comes his way. Sometimes he can look flashy and sometimes he doesn't, but the end result is productive. He is very good at navigating zone coverage from the slot position. Understands the moving parts and can settle into open spaces. Is just fast enough quick enough to win one-on-one on the outside, but may not have a consistent edge at the next level if matched up against elite personnel. This is the type of player that can come out of nowhere and make a huge play but at the same time be a role player if need be.
McDoom is a polished and versatile target. Can be used as a utility weapon in the spread, a fulltime slot and an outside target that's capable of winning vertically. We like his natural feel for the game and he plays with a lot of confidence. He possesses some readymade traits for the next level as he is already a fairly precise route runner. A good player for power five conference programs.
McDoom emerged onto the scene in the summer prior to his junior season, when he'd already garnered offers from the likes of Clemson and Miami. His coach cited both his speed and his route-running as reasons for the early attention:
”This kid is a stud,” said Bob Head, West Orange’s coach. “He will go wherever he wants to. Eddie is a track kid and run the 400-meters. That’s a grown man’s race and he’s one of the best in the state. He made the finals. He’s a leader. He’s a polished route runner. He had great film last year and ever was in the shadow of Garrett Johnson (signed with Kentucky). He’s a very hard worker as well.”
Oddly, none of the sites have much on McDoom from a scouting perspective from that point until the recent UA game, for which McDoom was a late addition. He earned mention among the top Team Highlight practice performers for all three days by 247, which praised his big-play ability and route-running, though they did mention he dropped a few balls on day one. Scout's Corey Bender came away from the week quite impressed with McDoom's game:
McDoom was a late addition to the Under Armour All-American, but he definitely belonged with the best of the best in nearby Orlando. He's a quick-twitch athlete that consistently created separation off the line of scrimmage and kept defenders on their toes. McDoom has battled drops at times in the past, but he was consistent and made the most out of his opportunities. Really did a good job of sticking his foot in the grass and running crisp routes.
McDoom caught a 12-yard touchdown pass in the UA game itself; afterwards Rivals' Mike Farrell named him honorable mention for his own "Lightning In A Bottle" award for the week's most exciting and dynamic player.
In the wake of McDoom's commitment, 247's Clint Brewster provided a free film evaluation:
McDoom is a natural wide receiver with reliable hands and a good feel for the game. He’s got the ability to win off the line of scrimmage with his footwork and get open enough to snatch a pass. He’s really comfortable running all the patterns in the route tree and shows he can get open vertically although he’s not a 4.4 speed type of wide receiver. McDoom’s a savvy player with a nice feel for coverage and he knows how to stem his routes and set up opposing cornerbacks to think he’s running a different pattern. There's some nice subtleties to his game that stand out no film.
The Wolverine's Tim Sullivan also evaluated McDoom's potential impact:
McDoom is a slippery, quick-twitch inside receiver who is at his best getting upfield after the catch. He's not a juke-inside-a-phonebooth slot, but has adequate moves to get past one tackler, and the mentality to gain yardage afterwards. He has a solid understanding of how to get open against zone and man coverage, and uses his feel for the game to set himself up for that yardage after the catch.
He can be a screen or end-around merchant thanks to that YAC mentality, and although he doesn't have the physical makeup to be a great blocker yet, the mentality is there to return the favor when his teammates need a block, as well.
Sullivan mentioned McDoom lacks elite speed and occasionally lets the ball get into his body instead of plucking it right out of the air.
McDoom has the ability to play inside or outside and his route-running is advanced for a high school prospect. His film also shows a player who can make a big plays with the ball in his hands; I'm have no concerns about his game speed after watching it. His ability to consistently catch the ball will determine just how much he resembles Steve Breaston; the hope here is he'll be able to track and catch the deep ball better.
McDoom holds offers from Alabama, Boston College, Cincinnati, Clemson, FIU, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisville, Miami (YTM), Michigan State, Mississippi State, Mizzou, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Pitt, Rutgers, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Not a bad list for a three-star to say the least.
West Orange has produced one four-star prospect since 2002, according to Rivals: 2015 Notre Dame RB signee Dexter Williams. The program has also sent a handful of three-star players to SEC and ACC schools over that span.
While I can't locate senior stats, 247's profile lists impressive junior numbers: 47 catches for 854 yards and 15 touchdowns.
FAKE 40 TIME
McDoom's Hudl page lists an unverified 4.48 40, which gets three FAKEs out of five. While he's plenty fast, that would be an elite electronic time.
Junior highlights and single-game reels can be found on his Hudl page.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
While Michigan is all set for 2016 at outside receiver, McDoom will get the opportunity to compete for snaps in the slot, where sophomore Grant Perry is the only returner who's seen significant game action—while Perry had a breakout of sorts in the Citrus Bowl, he didn't have a big role in the offense. McDoom, Dylan Crawford, and perhaps Chris Evans will battle for a chance to see the field early, either in a starting role or subbing in for Perry while preparing for a bigger role in the future.
After Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson graduate following the 2016 season, the competition opens up considerably on the outside, and McDoom could also factor in there. Even if he redshirts, he'll have a shot to see the field in year two on campus.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
McDoom is the 25th commit in the class and the fifth from Florida. Michigan is still in pursuit of a couple receivers, especially with Nate Johnson commitment in serious doubt. Paramus Catholic three-star Donald Stewart should stay on the board; he's a true outside receiver in a class currently lacking one. Florida three-star Pie Young could join the class as either a slot or a cornerback.
Johnson and Jordan Elliott are looking likely to flip to other schools (ND and Texas, respectively), and we know of one other current commit who won't end up in the class for academic reasons and another who's been told all along he'll be taken as a grayshirt. That leaves Michigan with as many as nine spots to fill in a class that could reach 30.
Top remaining targets include DT Rashan Gary, ATH Jordan Fuller, CB Lavert Hill, DT Boss Tagaloa, TE Devin Asiasi, WDE Connor Murphy, S Khaleke Hudson, TE Chase Allen, WR Donald Stewart, WR/DB Pie Young, and K Quinn Nordin. Hudson will announce his decision at 3 pm today; Michigan looks to be in very good position.
Here's the class as it currently stands: