Turns out rise-up threes are difficult to guard. [Bryan Fuller]

Someone finally solved Michigan's defense.

It took Villanova's historically great offense and Donte DiVincenzo's all-timer of a game. After a slow start, the Wildcats overwhelmed Michigan, going 17-for-30 inside the arc, 10-for-27 from beyond it, and grabbing 12 offensive rebounds. When they missed shots, they followed them. When they pulled up for three, they struck the fear of God into your heart. They were so good they didn't even need double-digit points from Jalen Brunson, the national player of the year, to take home their second national title in three years.

The team that wasn't supposed to be here looked, unfortunately, like they weren't supposed to be here. For the fifth time in six tournament games, Michigan's offense looked out of sorts, and they couldn't afford that against Nova. The Wolverines shot a woeful 3-for-23 from beyond the arc. Moe Wagner scored 11 quick points, then only five the rest of the way, looking increasingly frustrated by his misses and fouls. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman tried to carry the team in his final collegiate game, only for his 23 points to go for naught. No other Michigan player reached double digits until Zavier Simpson's layup with under four minutes to play.

Mood. [Fuller]

Thus capped an unbelievable run for a Michigan team unlike any we've seen since John Beilein's arrival. They came one game short of a most improbable national title with a couple transfers and freshmen added to the leftovers from last year's similarly improbable run to the Sweet Sixteen. Depending on NBA Draft decisions, this team may only lose Abdur-Rahkman and Duncan Robinson, and they bring in arguably the most talented recruiting class Beilein has landed. Even if Wagner (or, less likely, Charles Matthews) goes pro, they will be loaded for another deep postseason run.

Tonight went as many expected, and every missed opportunity at a national championship stings. We got a lot more out of this team than anyone imagined, though. The heads may hang tonight, but this group will stand tall forever, and this may well be the precursor to something even greater.

[Hit THE JUMP for the more photos box score.]

All photos from San Antonio by Bryan Fuller. All photos from the Crisler Center by Marc-Gregor Campredon.

SPONSOR NOTE. HomeSure Lending is sponsoring our tourney coverage. If you need a home loan, you should probably get it from a guy whose Ted Valentine impression is just as thunderously sarcastic as yours. Matt will get you a good loan, fast. And call you for a charge while doing it. Unless it is actually a block.

ICYMI. The preview. The podcast. Block/Charge.

The time for words has passed. Thankfully, MGoFish's Stephen Osentoski has provided a hype video.

Win The Game.

Fight. Laugh. Dance. Live. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

It would have been a good death, there at the water’s edge. If the Red Sea hadn’t parted, and the Egyptian army had mown down every Hebrew man, woman, and child on that salt-licked Levantine shore, maybe they would still tell the story, thousands of years of later, of the slaves who forced a Pharaoh to consent to their release. Other stories have made it as long of fewer slaughtered with the taste of freedom on their lips. Few gods had done more for their people than theirs had already done for them.

My people this week are celebrating what is objectively my second-favorite world holiday*. Passover is exactly what a religious festival would look like if a dadly nerd like me was asked to draw one up: a history lesson followed by family dinner under some thematic culinary restriction. And everything has meaning.

This annual dinner-lecture (we call it a Seder) has collected a bunch of narrative traditions in service to the primary function of educating the next generation of fans on the founding myth, i.e. Exodus. I’ll spare you the Charleton Heston movie recap, and the super-abridged version I told on Saturday to get the Hebrews out of Egypt before tip-off. After the Red Sea climax the story speeds up to get this rabble of aimless refugees with slave’s skills back to People status, and the way we do this traditionally is a folk song that Jewish kids learn before their vocabulary gets to 100 words.

It’s called “Dayenu” (dye-AY-noo) which means “It would have been sufficient” but like all laconic bon mots it has a stronger meaning that implies listener and speaker both know the story, so it’s also “We had matzah subs; it was crazy!” The intention of this one is really, you’ve done more than enough; how can I ever repay you? plus two drops of I can die now.

Each verse is a chronological event that takes us from slavery to freedom, for which God gets the credit, in a call-response.

If He had taken us to Mount Sinai and not given us the Torah?

DAYENU!

If He had given us the Torah but not shown us to Israel?

DAYENU!

So you’re building gratitude throughout the song. Parting the Red Sea will already make every gimmicky top five best miracles in 10,000 years of podcasts; if the ground is muddy, zero complaints. (The ground isn’t muddy).

----------------------

*[After y’all’s idea to spread gifts and good cheer during the darkest week of winter]

[After the Jump: What would have been sufficient.]

[Bryan Fuller]

Nice face. The Ringer's Paolo Uggetti on Michigan's expressive star:

“I’m shook. I’m a very nervous person before games,” Wagner says. “I’m a wreck, and I don’t allow myself to relax. On the court, it’s gone, but before, I can’t stand it.”

The court is Wagner’s comfort zone, and with good reason. Once the headphones and warm-ups come off and the clock begins to run, Wagner is a different person. On this particular night, he puts together his best game of the Dance, tallying 21 points and draining all three of his shots from deep in 30 minutes. Michigan beats Texas A&M by 27 to advance to the Elite Eight—it’s the type of game Wagner loves most: a blowout. “It’s better for the nerves.”

Very same. Maybe there's actually something to the First Wagner Three theory?

Don't try this at home, if you have a lamp post in your home. The South U scene post-game:

pic.twitter.com/B2QCDogdj8

— Orion Sang (@orion_sang) April 1, 2018

All class from Jordan Poole with #SisterJean pic.twitter.com/H0OXMxHUIi

— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) April 1, 2018

Hangin' with Sister Jean. Jordan Poole on his post-game interaction with the most famous nun in America:

"She got those guys," Poole told reporters afterward. "She had their back the entire time and everybody talks about them being a Cinderella story and she was getting a lot of attention.

"But being able to build a fan base how she did, and being able to have Loyola have so many fans out here and travel well, and I just thought the entire concept and everything that she brought to the table, and being able to have such a a big impact on the team, being in a situation like this, I thought it was amazing."

Charles Matthews probably still doesn't know who she is.

Various videos. All makes in the semi:

Individual reels for Wagner…

…and Charles Matthews are also available.

Contest all the shots. This is extraordinary after Michigan contested all but three of FSU's attempts in the Elite Eight:

According to ESPN Stats & Information, Michigan contested 24 of Loyola's 27 shot attempts from the field in the second half, including the first 16 Ramblers shots. Loyola didn't record an "open" shot until 4:43 remained in the game, by which time the Wolverines held a five-point lead.

Do that against Villanova and you've got a real shot.

Building X. [Editor's note: dad calls him X, I'm calling him X. X is the coolest letter.] Andrew Kahn dives into what makes Zavier Simpson such an effective defender:

"If we trained him like we do Moe (Wagner), he'd look like a fullback on the football team," Sanderson said.

But Simpson was a bit of a "waddler" with tight hips. Sanderson worked to increase his joint flexibility, allowing for further range of motion and better defensive technique. That, along with not fouling nearly as much as last year, has turned Simpson into an elite defender.

"He not only takes in what our coaching staff will tell him about a player, but he has his own little tricks," Michigan's Rico Ozuna-Harrison said. Like Wilson, Ozuna-Harrison is a freshman walk-on who often plays on the scout team that faces the starters. "He knows what hand to guard when you're doing a move. He knows where to place his feet. How to bump you and where. Small stuff that really makes a difference."

Paintball oral history? Okay, sure:

Kapustka: (Beilein) was the first guy taken out. Got hit right in the head.

Abdur-Rahkman: Bounced off his head. Paint all over his face.

Kapustka: It came from the ground. Someone just fired a perfect shot. It was pretty crazy.

Ibi Watson, freshman forward: It was (Eli) Brooks who got him.

Eli Brooks, freshman point guard: /makes exaggerated hand gun motion

Don't miss a titanic Charles Matthews-Jon Sanderson showdown.

A mind-bending counterfactual. Jay Wright, Rutgers coach:

There’s one more minor connection that neither coach may even know about. When Villanova went after Hofstra’s coach, Wright was the school’s sole target. Former athletic director Vince Nicastro used the word “exclusively” in describing whom they were going after.

However, just in case Wright decided the big Rutgers offer was the one he would take, Villanova needed a backup plan. Everyone has to have a list. The name on top of that list, John Beilein.

Not that any sane person is taking the Rutgers job over… literally any other high major school? I think that's true.

Etc.: Two fairly silly reasons Nova will win. Andrew Kahn on Wagner's performance. Andy Staples on the game. Max Marcovitch on Jordan Poole's halftime talk.

Them? [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Something's been missing to take the edge off before Michigan games since the free programs ceased being economically viable: scientific gameday predictions that are not at all preordained by the strictures of a column in which one writer takes a positive tack and the other a negative one. Something like… Punt-Counterpunt, except for basketball.

BLOCK

By Bryan MacKenzie

We all know the bad news: Villanova. They are good. This need not be discussed at length. The good news: Michigan’s offense has struggled mightily throughout the NCAA tournament.

Yes, yes, this is not the good news you were hoping for. You were hoping that I had climbed high atop the thing and consulted the wise oracle, and the runes foretold of a great firebombing from deep. But this is actually better. Because already know what happens when Michigan comes out firing – and hitting – from three. You get a game like Texas A&M, or late-season Maryland, or the Texas Shruggie game, or the Florida Elite Eight Stauskasfest. There is much rejoicing and Twitter screaming and maniacal laughter. A good time is had by all.

According to Science, two of these = a National Championship [Brian Fuller]

Team shooting streaks are as fleeting as Nick Ward’s and Jaren Jackson’s minutes; you never know when they will appear, or how long they will last. Michigan could come out tonight and hit 60% from deep, and no one would be that surprised. But Michigan could also come out flat again, in which case they will lose (as would any team Beilein has ever fielded, and as would 99% of basketball teams assembled in the modern era against this Villanova team). Based on the last two and a half weeks, this would surprise no one either.

Coming into this season, Michigan under John Beilein was a combined 11-80 when its offense put up a Dead Body game (i.e. where their offensive efficiency dipped below 98.6). That just over one win per year. This year, they are 7-2 in those games. They’ve won as many such games this year as they won in the previous eight seasons combined. And this includes three tournament wins this year (Montana, Houston, and FSU) and barely excludes Loyola-Chicago.

[Fuller]

It’s hard to imagine that any other Beilein team would even be standing at this point with the kind of offensive production they’ve gotten. Yet here they are, still playing in April. And sure, they still have those Walter In The Crawlspace games in them. We’ve seen three of them in the current 14-game winning streak. But now, for the first time, they have a defense. A real defense. A salty defense. The kind of defense that can get some stops when the offense stalls, as even the most firebreathingest offenses are wont to do. Michigan doesn’t have to be perfect. They have the luxury of being almost perfect. And that might, might just be enough.

One other thing. I feel pretty comfortable with the notion that karma doesn’t really control basketball games. Neither the Universe, nor any omnipotent, omnipresent, omnibenevolent entities residing therein, care significantly about the outcome on Monday night. But I feel equally comfortable with the notion that if he/she/it/they ever DID want to put a finger on the scale, it would be in favor of John Beilein winning a title. Winning “The Right Way” may not be fair, as one can only be so upset about players getting paid during the cash bonanza that is the NCAA Tournament. But he has sure as hell won The Hard Way, and the next person I meet with a cross word to say about him will be the first.

[Fuller]

Still, as we said before the Loyola game, this is ultimately a battle of basketball teams, and Villanova is statistically better. Michigan probably needs to have one of their Death From Above performances to win this game, and this may be the one opponent against which such a performance might not be enough. That’s a tough ask, even for a wizard.

Villanova 77, Michigan 73

----------------------------

CHARGE

By Smoothitron

I feel conflicted regarding Villanova being Michigan’s title game opponent. This is exactly the sort of matchup I would want if I were an unaffiliated fan. It has two schools big enough and good enough to produce a quality game with two coaches dragging college basketball ever further out of the 2-points-and-a-cloud-of-dust era, but none of the annoyance of seeing a blueblood like North Carolina for the zillionth time.

In other ways, Villanova is exactly the kind of opponent I didn’t want to see. This almost goes without saying, but Villanova is extremely good. Their Kenpom page is a boon for the antacid industry and it’s hard to imagine Beilein coaching circles around someone like Jay Wright who emphasizes so many of the same concepts but has reached an indisputably greater level of success. On a more personal note, while I’m happy to see Villanova be successful in general, I had always imagined and hoped Beilein’s pinnacle victory would be against one of the villains of College Basketball.

yeah like that guy

I’ve decided not to let any of it bother me, though. I’ve gotten to see this team make a 10-0 deficit look like a well-intentioned but woefully insufficient rec-league handicap against Montana. For Throwback Thursday: an old-fashioned Michigan shruggie game vs. Texas A&M, followed by a win against Florida State where the concept that Michigan lives and dies by the 3 was emphatically destroyed. The Houston game was a simple reminder that sometimes good things just happen to good people.

I didn’t cry, YOU cried

Against Loyola and for the 4^th time this tournament, Michigan treated us to the experience of watching a team not playing its best but still winning important games. It’s harrowing and frustrating, but it’s a feeling I never had the privilege to endure growing up in the Amaker era. Coach Beilein and the players have rescued a moribund program and its fanbase from another generation of mediocrity and apathy, and they deserve their damn coronation.

So I’m done doubting; it’s no fun and the team has earned better. Villanova is a tremendous offense; they haven’t seen a defense like this. They hit a ton of 3s; they can’t make any if they can’t get them off. Jalen Brunson could be the best guard in America; X will be in his shirt and in his head for 40 minutes. Michigan’s offense goes into lulls; ask the Aggies about those lulls. Michigan can’t hit free throws; it won’t be close enough to matter.

Just a few more hours before an ass whoopin’. They ain’t know.

Michigan 75, Villanova 62

SPONSOR NOTE. HomeSure Lending is sponsoring our tourney coverage. If you need a home loan, you should probably get it from a guy whose Ted Valentine impression is just as thunderously sarcastic as yours. Matt will get you a good loan, fast. And call you for a charge while doing it. Unless it is actually a block.

THE ESSENTIALS

chance they use the same dang wildcat growl everyone else does: 82%.

THE US

It's all about the window. Over the course of the season, Villanova has proven themselves to be the best team in the country by a considerable distance. Over the course of the tournament, same thing. Michigan's been in some dogfights and hasn't beaten a seed higher than #6 Houston; the closest anyone's come to Villanova is 12 points and they ended their semifinal against Kansas in the first four minutes.

But if you push the window back, things get interesting. And I'm not talking about cherry-picking Michigan's win streak. Here's a Torvik slice since January 1st, when Zavier Simpson came off the bench to play 32 minutes against Iowa and established himself the starting point guard, against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams*:

That's half the season—far more than half of the quality opponents—during which Villanova is a point or two better over the course of a 60-possession game. Not Vegas's 7 point gap, not Kenpom's 31% chance at winning, but damn near dead even. Big Ten Tournament Michigan—the Michigan that scored 1.1 and 1.2 PPP against the #10 and #31 defenses in the country, respectively—is a titan ready to go toe to toe with even Villanova and their holy grail offense.

Oops Sorry About Your Windshield I Don't Even Know How That Ball Got Out Of An Arena Michigan… not so much. The shooting that's barely gotten Michigan through four of five tourney games isn't going to cut it. For the love of everything good and holy, make some damn shots. Have a Stauskas seance. Whatever it takes.

*[FWIW: this skips the Northwestern L for Michigan by limiting it to Quad 2; it also skips Villanova's loss to Butler, which happened on 12/30. Since Villanova isn't going to run a zone, call it even?]

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

*[last five games minutes from Kenpom.]

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]